Monday Morning Market Overview - 11/12
Can the US CPI Push the USA100 to an All-Time High?🚀
🇺🇸USA100 rose during US session by 0.40% on Friday and by the close of day was almost 0.50% higher.
💼NFP confirms US has 199,000 more employed individuals compared to the previous month, 15,000 higher than expected.
📉Unemployment Rate declined from 3.9% to 3.7% which is considerably low considering the restrictive monetary policy. Earnings growth doubled in November.
🤖EU agree on AI regulation, but investors are not yet aware of how this could affect the US tech market, particularly the NASDAQ.
🇨🇳China’s November consumer prices fell the fastest in more than 3 years and the country has again fallen into deflation territory.
🇬🇧Economists expect another negative UK GDP, but Pound is trading higher this morning.
🇺🇸USA100 ended Thursday 1.30% higher and surpassed this week’s highs.
📈Alphabet stocks rose by 5.40% by end of day, 4.00% before trading hours and a further 1.35% during the US session.
📈Alphabet’s board of directors advised Gemini outperforms OpenAI, but did not show how it compares. The stock has seen an increase in demand and clearly the AI drive continues.
🇺🇸Weekly data on American jobless claims increased by 220,000, in line with expectations and previous announcements.
🇪🇺Euro is decreasing in value against all major currencies including Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc.
👉Analysts expect NFP to read 184,000, Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% and Unemployment Rate 3.9%.
💲For the Dollar to experience a potential bullish trend, NFP will need to read higher, Unemployment Rate lower and Average Hourly Earnings as expected.
Market Update – December 7th – Crude Oil Drops to a Six Month Low
Crude Oil ⛽️ price has dipped to its lowest since June 2023, marking nearly a 6-mth low 📉, on China's dismal economic data 🇨🇳 and the outcomes of the latest OPEC meeting.
Moody's delivered a blow by downgrading China's economic outlook from stable to negative. China, the leading Oil importer, and Japan, the 4th largest, are grappling with poor economic data, exerting downward pressure on Crude Oil.
📈 The American Petroleum Institute revealed a surprising surge in inventories, rising by 9.594M barrels against an expected decline of 2.267M — indicating higher-than-anticipated supply.
This morning, the US Dollar Index is declining, with 52% speculating Fed will cut rates in March 2024.
📊 From NASDAQ's top ten most influential stocks, only Tesla remains in the green, with a marginal rise of 0.27%. 🚗💹
Yen crosses in the spotlight today. Yen gains ground as indications that the Bank of Japan could pivot rise. After decades of deflation, Japan's economy looks poised to finally turn a corner.
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🏦Market sentiment remains uncertain, as Powell did not offer much pushback to expectations that rate cuts are the next move or of massive easing in financial conditions.
📈Friday's NFP is crucial for rate cut expectations.
🧈Treasuries & Gold declined from ATHs above $2,100.
🌏Asian shares were mixed, JPN225 closed down 0.6% at 33,231.27. European & US stock futures remained stable.
🇯🇵USDJPY dipped to 146.22, almost 3-mth high against USD. Currently reverted some gains as speculation of eventual unwinding of BOJ policies added pressure on Yen.
🛢Oil prices faced challenges due to doubts about OPEC+ maintaining output cuts, high US production & increasing rig counts. UKOIL eased to $78.37 a barrel, USOIL fell to $73.63. Middle East geopolitical tensions added to market considerations.
🪙BTC surpassed $41,000, with expectations of interest-rate cuts and potential ETF approvals. Ether & Dogecoin also experienced gains.
👉Key Mover: EURJPY down by 1.92%. Next Support levels: 159 and 158.50.
🏦Fed rate cut bets deepened thanks to the lack of pushback, and expectations for this pivot continued to drive the markets. 5.2% GDP print had no impact.
🧳Treasury yields richened further & curve dis-inverted to -38 bps on bull steepener.
📈Bonds set for best month ever. Concurrently, rate cut frenzy has boosted EGBs, sending the global index to its best since the 2008 financial crisis.
📊Stocks traded cautiously and lost steam into the close, as several Big Tech companies offset gains.
📉Meta fell 2%, Alphabet gave up 1.6% and Microsoft dropped 1%. General Motors surged 9.4% after big stock buyback announcement.
💲USD steadied at 102.80, with a 102 handle for a 3rd straight day, slumped from the 107.00 Oct 3 peak.
🇪🇺EURUSD reversed below 61.8% Fib level on July-Sept downleg, at 1.0945 & remains well above 1.09.
🧈Gold edged up 0.16% to $2044.18 per ounce.
🛢USOIL climbed 2% to $78.79 per barrel ahead of OPEC+. The delayed expanded OPEC+ meeting will be online.
Bitcoin still hovering near $38,000-mark.
Global Market Movers: Comex Gold price renews six-month highs on Fed rate cut bets
The US Dollar dives to over a three-and-half-month low amid rising bets for a series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024 and continues to boost the Comex Gold price. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that he could see a point where the central bank might start lowering rates if inflation continues to ease over the next few months. Waller added that he is increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to the central bank's 2% target...
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🌐 Caution prevails this week with month-end and key data releases, impacting global futures markets.
📅 Key Events: Focus on US and EU inflation data, Powell event, China PMI, and delayed OPEC+ meeting. ECB President Lagarde addresses the EU Parliament.
🇨🇳 PBOC encourages financial support for private companies, including tolerance for non-performing loans.
📈 Global stocks rally for 4 weeks; US500 futures ease by 0.2%, US100 loses 0.4%. US500 up 8.7% this month, best since mid-2022. The 55% of S&P 500 shares trade above their 200-DMA. Asian shares slip, JPN225 falls 0.53%, CSI300 down 0.8%.
(dollar)
USDIndex at 2-month low (103.30), EURUSD at 1.0952, near a 4-month high of 1.0965 & USDJPY pulls back to 148.77.
⛽️ USOIL at $75, UKOIL falls to $80 pre-OPEC meeting; uncertainties weigh on markets. Reports suggest African oil producers seek higher caps for 2024; Saudi Arabia may extend 1 million bpd cut.
🌟 Key Mover: Gold hits a 6-month high at $2,017.82; spot gold may extend gains into $2,027-$2,030.
Market Update - November 23rd – McDonald’s Looks to Double Chinese Presence Boosting the US30!
📈The best performing index on Wednesday was the US30 which rose to its highest price since August but is not yet at its peak like the US100!
🇨🇳The US30 was particularly supported by Goldman Sachs and McDonald’s stocks. Analysts advise McDonald’s performance could significantly improve with stronger Chinese presence.
💲Bond Yields and US Dollar Index are trading lower this morning which is also deemed as positive for the US30 and US equities.
📈US100 continues to witness a sharp rise in short term sellers as traders become cautious of the current year highs.
European PMI results are mixed while the UK’s data continues to improve. UK Services PMI increased to 4-mth high.
🇪🇺Technical analysis points towards EURGBP potentially declining over the next week.
Market Update - November 21st – Investor Focus on Meeting Minutes and NVIDIA Earnings
📈The NASDAQ breaks through a major resistance level, rising to the highest level since January 2022.
🤝Investor Focus on this evening’s Meeting Minutes and NVIDIA Earnings.
📈Analysts expect NVIDIA EPS to rise 20% compared to the previous quarter. During this morning’s pre-market hours, the stocks rose a further 0.30%.
📉The 10-year bond yields are trading 0.027% lower during this morning’s Asian session and the US Dollar Index is down 0.15%.
🇺🇸The US CFTC report confirms sellers are closing “sell” contracts and buyers are adding further “buy” contracts. Gold rose 0.71% during this morning’s session.
🏦BOE governor advises another interest rate hike is possible, but investors do not price a longer hold.
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📅Take a look at the key events and then find out more on the Economic Calendar on our website!
Market Update - November 16 - Stocks rally fizzles out
💲AUDUSD & NZDUSD dropped, in response to declining regional equities and Australian rising jobless rate even as employment numbers improved in October.
🌎Asian stocks declined, interrupting the week's significant gains, following Chinese data. JPN225 ended lower at 33,424.41, breaking a 3-day rally, influenced by profit-taking and a rebound in US Treasury yields.
🇺🇸US stocks closed slightly higher. #Target experienced a more than 15% increase following better-than-expected Q3 results.
🛢Oil extended declines after a government report showed swelling US crude inventories. USOIL dipped 0.9% to $75.97.
📈XAUUSD rose slightly & traded at $1967.
🪙BTCUSD recovered a 2-day drift & returned above 37.3K, possibly attributed to profit-taking by sellers; lower inflation and bond yields expected to support further crypto prices.
👉Interesting Mover: NZDUSD (-0.74%) holds ground above 4-month descending channel.
Market Update - October 31 - Stocks Down & Yen plummets
🌎Asian stock markets traded mixed, with China bourses underperforming after weaker than expected PMI reports that signal ongoing weakness, especially in manufacturing
🇯🇵USDJPY jumped to 150.40, after Yen fell to 2-mth lows as BOJ made only minor changes to its policy settings.
📉Earnings beats from McDonald's and SoFi provided support ahead of Apple and other key earnings this week
USDIndex dipped to 105.85 from a peak of 106.704 after Nikkei report
Antipodeans were further pressured by Chinese data, i.e. AUDUSD dipped to 0.6340
🧈GOLD & USOIL: Unwinding of some of Friday's haven demand saw gold fall about -0.5% to $1990, with a USOIL slide to $81.50 (Trendline & 200-DMA)
🔜Today: Canadian GDP, EU prelim GDP & CPI, NZ labor data. Earnings: AMC, BP, Pfizer
👉Interesting Mover: EURJPY (+1.05%) returns 5-day losses and keeps rising with attention turning to 162-162.40 (1998 highs & 2007-2008 highs)
Market Update - October 27 - Investors poised for weekly profits
🏦ECB firmly in wait and see stance and sticking to "higher for longer", avoiding rate cuts and early end to PEPP reinvestments, leading to higher bond prices
🇬🇧US Q3 GDP surged to +4.9%, exceeding the expected +4.3%, showcasing strong economic resilience
🛢Oil prices trimmed Wednesday's gains
🌎Asia shares rise after strong Amazon sales boost investor sentiment
Amazon (+5.36% after hours) sees best profits since 2021
📈Meta (+0.95% after hours) ad revenue (+23%) fuels blowout Q3, $11.6 billion in profits
💲USDIndex dipped slightly, USDJPY held at 150.00 amidst vigilant monitoring, 🇪🇺EURUSD declined to 1.0544, USDCAD remained at 1.3810
🧈GOLD maintained stability near 1998 highs
🔜Today's focus: US PCE deflator, Michigan sentiment, Exxon and Chevron earnings
👉Interesting Mover: USDCHF broke descending channel, extending higher for 4th day in a row
The FED, BOE and ECB will be on their toes this week, with rate decisions due from most of the major banks.
Take a look at the biggest events of the upcoming week, then visit our website for more details on our Economic Calendar!🗓
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Market Snapshot - 06 December
📈 US Dollar Index reaches a two-week peak around 104.00, boosted by positive economic indicators.
📉 JOLTS Job Openings drop to 8.73 million, suggesting a cooling job market.
📈 ISM Services PMI rises to 52.7, indicating continued expansion in the service sector.
📉 Wall Street finishes mixed, on raising expectations of Fed rate cuts in March.
📈 Most valuable companies like Nvidia and Apple rise over 2%, while Amazon and Tesla gain over 1%.
📉 S&P 500 declines 0.06%, Nasdaq gains 0.31%, Dow Jones declines 0.22%.
🛢 Oil prices fall to near five-month low on a stronger U.S. dollar and demand concerns.
📉 Brent falls 1.1% to $77.20, WTI ends 1.0% lower at $72.32.
🪙 Gold prices fall sharply from record highs as traders seek cues on Fed interest rate trimming.
🔍 Focus on nonfarm payrolls reading for November.
📈 Yellow metal started the week at record highs, boosted by less hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and increased safe haven demand amid Middle East tensions.
🌎Asia stock markets sold off, following on from a weaker close on Wall Street.
📉The US100 slumped -0.84% on weakness in big tech, including Meta on news CEO Zuckerberg was selling shares.
💲The USDIndex was one of the few gainers on the day, rebounding to 103.642 (intraday peak of 103.852).
🇪🇺EURUSD declined to 1.08, indicating a potential retest of 1.0760, as the buck is firmer versus all of its G10 peers as rate cut speculation is keeping a lid on EUR & GBP.
🧈Gold corrected somewhat as the US Dollar found a footing and Treasury yields lifted. It is currently steady at $2030 - $2040 area.
🛢Oil remained under pressure as fears of a sizeable supply overhang through 2024 is still on the table.
🪙Bitcoin extended higher and breached $42,337 for the first time since early 2022. (roughly 153% higher this year).
👉Copper (-0.95%), with next Support at 3.75.
This WEEK:
Monday:
🇺🇸 factory orders & durable goods
Tuesday:
🇦🇺 RBA rate decision
🇯🇵 CPI
🇨🇳 Caixin services PMI
🇪🇺 PMIs
Wednesday:
🇦🇺 GDP
🇪🇺 Retail sales
🇨🇦 BOC rate decision
🇺🇸 ADP
Thursday:
🇨🇳 China trade
🇪🇺 EU GDP & 🇩🇪 Ind. Production
Friday:
🇯🇵 GDP
🇺🇸 NFP & Michigan
📈A November to remember. Best month in 40 years for Treasuries which rallied on FOMC expectations.
Stocks: Wall Street finished mixed. US30 rallied 8.9% with US100 up 10.7%. For the month US30 was up 8.8%, its second best Nov since 1980.
💲USDIndex finished at 103.40 recovering from the slide to 102.36 the prior two days after weaker than expected European & Chinese data.
🇪🇺EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating possible reversal of 2-mth rally, however 1.0830-1.0860 remains key support. USDCAD dips further into 1-yr triangle with immediate support at 1.35, while 🇬🇧GBPUSD settles above 1.26 despite USD appreciation.
🧈Gold slipped about -0.4% to $2036 on the yields rise and some fading of haven trades.
🛢USOIL slumped 2.9% to $75.59 after spiking 2.2% to $79.60 after OPEC+ announced a further production cut.
👉Key Mover: EURCHF down by 1.26%. Next Support levels: 0.95, 0.9440 and 0.9375.
🏦Bets that the Fed won't hike again and will start cutting rates next year are keeping bonds underpinned, after less than hawkish Fedspeak.
📉Treasury bulls took Fedspeak and ran with it. Short term bond yields dropped sharply, to lowest since July & August.
🌎Stocks in Asia & US are fractionally higher after a mixed trading session, as Treasury yields and USD hit multi-month lows.
🇯🇵JPN225 fell at 33,321 as investors continue buying pause.
🇺🇸The USD bears chased Buck lower. USDIndex fell to 102.36, the weakest since August. - Worst monthly performance in a year!
🇪🇺EURUSD broke 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, breaching 1.1016. Cable 1.2730.
💲USDZAR extended to 18.51 lows, JPY jumped to strongest since mid-September at 146.66. NZD surged more than 1% to July's 0.6207 high.
🛢USOIL & Gold climbed to $77 from $74 lows, and to $2051.93 per ounce, the highest since May, respectively. The weaker USD, global uncertainties, and rising Fed rate cut bets supported Gold and Oil.
📉 Asian stocks fell in response to declines in US & EU markets, amid growing conviction ECB & FED have concluded rate hikes, with expectations of rate cuts next year.
🇦🇺 Australia experienced an unexpected decline in October retail sales.
🇩🇪 Germany saw a slight improvement in consumer sentiment, but indicating no signs of a sustainable recovery in Europe's largest economy.
📉 JPN225 closed lower at 33,408.39, up 8% for the month, failing to surpass its highest closing level in three decades reached on July 3.
🇯🇵JPY gained momentum as USDIndex hit a 3-mth low on weaker-than-expected data, while EURUSD dipped to 1.0937, breaching the bottom of a 1-week channel with the next support at 1.0925.
📈 AUD rose to 0.6630, reaching a 4-mth high, while NZD touched a 7-week high of 0.6114.
⛽️ USOIL eased 0.13% to $74.74, UKOIL dropped below $80.
🧈Gold reached $2,013.80, hitting a fresh 6-mth peak of $2,017.89 earlier in the session.
Market Update - November 24th – US30 Outperforms as 76% of Stocks Rise!
📈The Dow Jones increased to a 3-mth high and outperformed other US stocks. The main drivers were Microsoft, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot which rose 3.64% between them.
📈The next major earnings report is Salesforce, next Wednesday. Salesforce stocks are the 9th most influential for the US30 and have risen 9.61% over the past month.
📊A slight concern for stock investors is the higher bond yields which has risen 0.060% this morning.
🇪🇺EURGBP continues to obtain sell signals for the coming days. UK PMI data indicate economic growth.
🏦ECB is recording first signs of pressure within the banking sector which can be seen in the non-performing loans sector.
📊NIKKEI225 trading at previous resistance a 5th time. Investors are contemplating whether the index will form a breakout.
Market Update - November 22nd – Market Slightly Changes Stance, NVIDIA Unable to Persuade Shareholders
🎮NVIDIA Stocks dropped 1.74% after market close. The company beat earnings expectations but believes next quarter will not be as positive.
📊NASDAQ declined but remains above significant trendlines. 4 of the top 5 influential stocks declined pre-market today.
💲USD is increasing in value against all currencies as market slightly shifts on possibility of an interest rate cut or one last hike.
🛢Oil increases ahead of weekend OPEC Meeting. Analysts expect an oil surplus in 2024, despite current production cuts in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Market Update - November 20th – Stocks on the rise, but will they maintain momentum?
💱CM Exchange confirms 30% believe Fed will cut rates by 0.25% in March
🇺🇸US Dollar Index slides 0.33% due to potentially dovish Fed Minutes tomorrow evening
📈NVIDIA stocks climb 0.50% pre-market as earnings release nears. The stock has risen almost 20% over the past month
BOE will not consider a rate cut until summer 2024. Late mortgage payments in UK have risen 9%
🪙Bitcoin pressured as US SEC postpones decision on spot bitcoin ETF application from Hashdex to January
🇫🇷French CAC40 at new 2-mth high after rising a further 0.48% during this morning’s European Cash Open
Market Update - November 17 - Stock markets struggled
🇺🇸Soft US data once again helped treasuries adding to the bullish sentiment that has prevailed most of the month.
💲US Dollar slid higher to 104.36, while Yields down as markets price in that Fed done with hiking.
🇪🇺Euro strengthens after Tuesday's significant 1.69% surge.
🇬🇧Sterling (-0.23%) dive to 1.2375 post an unexpected decline in UK retail sales.
🇦🇺🇳🇿AUDUSD & NZDUSD down for a 2nd consecutive day.
🛒Alibaba (-9%) market value has slumped to only about half of that of rival Tencent Holdings Ltd, as the company had cancelled plans to spin off its cloud computing unit and paused a push to list its grocery chain.
🛍Walmart (-8% ) plunging, even after in-line earnings, as more cautionary outlook with D-word (deflation) rattling investors.
🛢USOil drop nearly 5% s below key $73 support level, after EIA data showed that US crude inventories jumped much more than forecast.
🥇Gold spiked to 1988, set for a strong weekly close.
Technicals & FOMO adding to the moves
🇺🇸US House voted for a short term funding bill, averting shutdown
🇬🇧UK: CPI fell to 4.6% y/y from 6.7%, lowest since Oct 2021. Output & input prices are rising again, remaining high for the BoE's liking
🇨🇳China: Mixed data reflected ongoing weak activity. Residential property sales fell, new property construction & Fixed asset investment were down
🏦 PBoC left 1-yr median lending rate unchanged offering $200 bln to counter weakness from property sector
🌍 EURUSD soared to 1.088, best since Aug. USDJPY slumped to 150.25. It's been above 150.00 since Nov 6, possibly holding as BoJ shows little inclination to normalize policy this year
📈 Stocks surged with US100 jumping 2.37%, US500 climbing 1.9, and US30 surging 1.43%. Every S&P sector closed in the green
⛽️ USoil steadied, Gold edged higher to $1971
🔜 TODAY: US Retail Sales & PPI
Market Update - October 30
🏦Stock markets slightly higher today after Wall Street saw US30 drop -1.12% with a hefty -6.7% plunge in the energy complex. US500 in correction territory, -10.3% below July 31 peak
📉 Morgan Stanley’s Wilson: ''Chances of a Q4 rally have fallen considerably”
📈Amazon’s 6.8% pop & Intel’s 9.3% jump helped soften blows from big drops in Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Ford stumbled 12.2%
🇯🇵JGB yields climbed to fresh 10-yr peaks today & USDJPY corrected to 149.22, as investors weighed chances of a possible BOJ policy tweak
💲USDIndex 106.50, down on Friday's close, but within previous day's range
🧈GOLD spiked to $2006.40 on war escalation. Currently settled lower at $1990. It’s likely to benefit should tensions increase, alongside the franc and short-dated US government bonds
🛢USOIL lower at $83.70
👉Interesting Mover: AUDUSD (+0.45%) extended above descending triangle however 0.6400 remains a strong retracement level.
Market Update - October 26
📉Tech shares were slammed after poor Alphabet earnings knocked its shares down nearly -10%, spreading gloom across the sector. US100 crashed -2.43%, its worst slide since Feb
🇪🇺Futures lower across Europe & US as markets wait for key CB decisions, with ECB kicking things off today
META fell 4% on Wednesday and another 3% after-hours after publishing results showing better-than-expected revenue but a cloudy outlook, with expenses seen topping Wall Street estimates
🇯🇵USDJPY has broken back above 150.00, hitting 150.80 (highest since Oct) after finding courage to test MoF again
🇨🇦USDCAD rose to a high of 1.381 after BOC announcement, highest since early March and the SVB bank failure
🛢USOIL recovered to $85 after a fall due to a rise in US crude stockpiles and a climb in USD
🧈Gold retests week's resistance at $1988
🔜Today: ECB meeting, US Durable Goods and Advanced GDP
👉Interesting Mover: USDIndex got legs after BOC left policy unchanged and downgraded GDP forecasts
