Daily Market Brief – 15/01/2023 – JPN225 Again Renews its All-Time Highs, Yen Down Against All Currencies!
🌎Yen declines against all currencies triggering further sell signals. GBPJPY +0.44%, USDJPY +0.35% and EURJPY +0.42%.
🇯🇵JPN225 increases in value for 9th consecutive day as US earnings “mixed” and Yen continues to decline.
💲No US trading today for Martin Luther King Day meaning limited Dollar volatility. Friday's earnings data "mixed" and provides no particular support for stocks.
🇺🇸US Stocks supported by Friday’s PPI which read 0.2% lower than expectations.
🇬🇧Pound Investors look to tomorrow’s UK Claimant Count Change and Wednesday’s UK CPI. UK inflation expected to decline from 3.9% to 3.8%.
🧈Gold continues to rise in value as Dollar is unable to hold onto gains and investors continue to price interest rate cuts.
Companies from various sectors are set to reveal their financial results in the coming week. Dive into the numbers, analyze the trends, and stay ahead of the curve!
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Market Review: Bitcoin Obtains SEC approval! Stocks Rise Ahead of CPI Release!
📉SEC gives a Bitcoin Spot ETF the green light, but Bitcoin trades lower, potentially due to the upcoming vital inflation data.
🏦JP Morgan advise Fed may cut more than it is signalling. However, monetary policy continues to depend on inflation data.
👉Institutions and investors have their eyes fixed on today’s US Inflation rate. Analysts expect CPI to read 0.2% and Core 0.3%.
🇪🇺European Stocks open significantly higher as we approach this afternoon’s US inflation data. Asian stocks renew all time highs.
💲US Dollar Index trades slightly higher since today’s market open but continues to remain weak. The day’s best performing currency so far remains the GBP for a second consecutive day.
👉Analysts confirm they expect BOE to proceed with three separate rate cuts in 2024!
The Q4 2023 earnings season is gearing up for action this week, with financial powerhouses JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, BlackRock, and Citigroup taking the lead Friday, 12 January. 📈
Stay tuned!
Market Review: Can Stocks hold onto gains?
🇺🇸USA100 +2.01% - Monday saw strongest price increase since mid-Nov 2023.
🖥Chip-makers and Semiconductors outperform the rest of the US stock market ahead of earnings. NVIDIA stocks rose 6.43%, AMD rose 5.45%.
📈All the top 20 most influential stocks of the USA100 holding the highest weight rose in value. However, investors will monitor if strong profits trigger an investor cashing in ahead of key releases.
📈US 10-Year Bond Yields rose 0.40% which may pressure stocks, but will the bond market maintain high yields throughout the day?
🇯🇵Japan’s Core Inflation data declined from 2.3% to 2.1% as expected. The lower inflation data makes a change in the BOJ's stance less likely.
🥇Gold continues to trade below major trend-lines as demand for safe haven assets weakens.
Market Review: Investors have their eyes fixed on US inflation.
📉Gold Collapses as Dollar and Bond yields rise. Bond yields trade 0.10% higher during this morning’s Asian session.
💲US Dollar Index rises to 0.18% as investors position themselves ahead of Thursday’s US CPI.
🇺🇸Analysts expect US CPI (inflation) to increase from 3.1% to 3.2% and the Core CPI to read 0.2%. A higher reading is likely to trigger a further US stock market decline.
📉Technical analysis continues to suggest a potential downward USA100 price movement.
📰Bloomberg: Investors less worried about when rate cuts will start as long as further hikes are unlikely. An interest rate cut is not likely before May 2024.
🧳JPMorgan: Possibilities of an interest rate cut in March now relatively low, supporting the USD.
Read the full article for more!
It's NFP day! Get the latest economic trends, with insights on yields and market performance ahead of the crucial US Jobs number. 💼💰💹
Read More!
Market Snapshot - 04 January
EUR/USD trades softer near 1.0922 amid a stronger USD. 📉
German Unemployment Rate holds steady at 5.9%, meeting expectations. 🇩🇪
Less dovish Fed remarks boost demand for the USD. 💵
Traders shift focus to German Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US ADP Employment Change. 👀
NZD/JPY elevated after rallying towards 89.40, taking a breather from recent losses. 📈
US stock indexes decline in extended profit-taking after a strong finish to 2023. 📉
S&P 500 starts the year with two straight declines, reflecting market sentiment. 📆
Rate-sensitive megacap stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla, experience declines. 📉
WTI climbs back to $73 per barrel, recovering from early-week declines. ⛽️
Houthis launch anti-ship missiles, targeting a container ship headed to Israel. 🚢
Libya's major Sharara oilfield, with a capacity of 300,000 bpd, completely shuts down due to protests. 🛢
Gold price bounces off multi-day lows near $2030 per ounce, hovering around $2,042. 🪙
Market Recap: Stocks, Bonds open 2024 in the red!
📈 Fed funds futures slipped in early 2024. Treasuries & Wall Street had a downward trend in early 2024.
📉 Heavy corporate calendar, losses in EU bonds, profit-taking, and trimming of Fed rate cut bets contributed to declines.
🚀 Moderna surged 15.5%, Apple lost 3.6% after Barclays downgrade. Nvidia and Meta both fell more than 2%. 💲 USDIndex retested 102, set for 3rd straight daily rise. EURUSD & GBPUSD have dropped sharply. USDJPY nudged up to 142.43 in thin trade, as Japanese markets remain closed.
🥇 Gold declined to $2058 as global risks and the weaker USD supported gold prices into year-end.
🪙 Bitcoin extended above 45K, supported by positive statements from BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs.
🔜Today: US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing, US Job openings.
👉 Key Mover: Oil prices slumped to $70.30, with the next support at $67.40-$68, fueled by concerns over events in the Red Sea and potential supply disruptions.
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Market Recap: Focal BoJ ahead & the very last key US data
🌐 FED: Bostic envisions two 25 bp cuts in 2024, but not imminent. Williams sees it's too early for cuts, yet US futures find buyers.
🇯🇵 Japan: BoJ's meeting crucial; risks for no action rise due to data; Governor Ueda cautious on exiting negative rates or YCC.
📈 Treasury yields slightly higher, but 2-year closes with a 28 bp drop, lowest since mid-May. 10-year notes at 3.91%.
📉 Asian stocks decline; European futures in red after Fed's caution on rate cuts.
📊 JPN225 down 0.7%; US500 futures up 0.3%; US100 adds 0.2%; EU50 futures slip 0.3%; UK100 down 0.1%.
💹 USDIndex at 102.00; EURUSD corrects to 1.0920 after weekly gain; GBPUSD sideways at 1.2685; USDJPY at 142.55 (38.2% Fib from 2023).
🥇 Gold rises above $2000 on weaker USD, lower yields, and dovish Fed.
🛢 Oil steadies above $72; IEA raises 2024 oil consumption forecast by 1.1 million barrels a day; Bitcoin holds above 40K for 11 days with bullish bias.
Market Overview – 13th December 2023
📈USA100 saw 68% of its stocks increase in value whereas 73% of US30 appreciated. However, USA100 continues to outshine other indices!
📉One of the few stocks within the US30 which have struggled is Procter and Gamble (holds a weight of 2.64%). P&G has decided to withdraw from certain countries where the Dollar is now too expensive.
🇺🇸US30 continues to trade within the upper side of the Bollinger Bands and Regression Channels, again indicating bullishness.
🇬🇧UK GDP was expected to decline from 0.2% to -0.1%. The figure fell to -0.3%, the lowest since September, sparking doubt as to whether the BoE can keep rates high.
💲US Dollar Index this morning is slightly higher, and Pound is declining against all other currencies.
🔜Investors are concentrating on this afternoon’s PPI release and the Fed’s Press Conference. Higher inflation and a hawkish Fed could support the Dollar further.
Market Overview - 12th December 2023
🇺🇸USA100 is increasing in value for a 7th consecutive week and is again on the rise this morning.
🚀89% of the USA100 increased in value on Monday and outperformed the Dow Jones & SNP500.
📈Broadcom, the 7th most influential stock within the USA100, witnessed the largest gain (+9.00%).
🤖Broadcom advise AI growth would counterbalance the current challenges in the semiconductor market. AI revenue is expected to double in 2024.
🇨🇭SNB Head Jordan may indicate abandoning further tightening of monetary conditions which may pressure the Franc.
💲USD continues to trade lower. CPI might need to read 3.2% as a minimum in order to potentially support the struggling Dollar.
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Daily Market Brief – 12/01/2023 – US Inflation Rises Higher Than Previously Expected
🇺🇸US inflation surprises markets increasing from 3.1% to 3.4% for first time since Aug 2023. As a result, US stocks fell but attempted to regain losses soon after.
👉US and UK carry out Yemen airstrikes hitting multiple Houthi targets and boats which are alleged to have been planning to seize commercial shipping boats.
🛢Oil ticks higher within Asian Session after US-UK airstrikes and supply chain disruption fears. Overnight Oil prices rose 1.61% adding more inflation fears.
🇬🇧UK economy grows 0.3% in Dec 2023 after declining 0.3% the month before. However, Pound struggles against most currencies and is mainly gaining solely against the Dollar.
🏦Investors await comments from Fed Kashkari who is likely to comment on the disappointing inflation data.
🌎European and Asia Stocks trade higher regardless of the higher US inflation. Investors are also watching earnings data closely!
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Market Review: Bitcoin Wobbles After SEC Confirms Fake News!
🔵 Analysts expect Bitcoin ETF to be approved in next 24 hours but BTC’s Market Share and overall Cryptocurrency market’s capitalization is declining.
👉US stocks rebound after declining to significant support level during European session.
📈From the top 20 most influential stocks, the best performing were AMD (+2.11%), NVIDIA (+16.87%) and Alphabet (1.52%).
🏦Fed Bowman said that there would be no new rate hike, however, it is too early to reduce due to the risks of consumer price growth remaining.
🇺🇸US Futures Trading Commission reports number of Gold buy contracts being added is far less than new sell contracts.
📈Bond yields rise to highest level in almost a month as we approach December’s US CPI. However, yields significantly declined on Wednesday which is positive for the stock market.
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Market Snapshot - 05 January
DXY Index recovers from a daily low of around 102.20.📈
ADP Employment Change for December beats expectations, alongside positive Weekly Jobless Claims. 📊
Dovish bets on the Federal Reserve ease somewhat but remain high. 🕊
The Aussie declines by 0.4% against the Greenback. 🇦🇺
Dow Jones Industrial ekes out a win on the back of financial stocks and strong jobs data. 📈
S&P 500 loses 0.34%, Nasdaq down 0.56%, and Dow rises by 0.03%. 📊
WTI price experiences losses due to a surge in US gasoline and distillate inventories. ⛽️
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change declines more than expected, impacting oil prices. 🛢
US administration repurchases 13.82M barrels of domestically produced oil to replenish the SPR. 🇺🇸
Gold price extends sideways consolidation for the second successive day. 🪙
Reduced bets for aggressive Fed policy easing seem to cap the upside for the precious metal. 💰
Traders show reluctance to place aggressive bets ahead of the key US monthly jobs report (NFP). 👨💼
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Market Snapshot - 14 December
📉 NZD/USD loses ground near 0.6175 after weaker-than-expected New Zealand GDP data.
🇳🇿 New Zealand's Q3 economy contracts by 0.3% QoQ, missing expectations of 0.2% growth.
🌐 EUR/USD attracts buyers near 1.0900, holding above the key 100-hour EMA. The pair reaches a two-week high with overbought RSI conditions.
📈 Dow Jones hits first record closing high since January 2022 after Fed signals end to rate hikes.
📊 S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally over 1% each on the prospect of lower borrowing costs in 2024.
⛽️ Crude oil looks for a rebound, clawing back to $70 after sliding to five-month lows at $68.
🛢 Drawdown in crude oil stocks helps support prices after a dip to June levels.
🪙 Gold price attracts follow-through buying as US bond yields and USD post-FOMC slide, supporting the metal.
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