Market Recap - Quarter End Comes Into View
📉Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.
🌎The market is consolidating into quarter-end. This week's supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed's rate path is limiting buying.
📊Stock markets traded cautiously overnight. Today, DAX and FTSE100 futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.
🇨🇳China's central bank reinforced its support for the currency. The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day
🛢Geopolitics: USOIL inched higher above $81.50, amid fresh supply concerns.
🧈Gold continues to trade near record highs, but the ascent has been capped by the recent rise in the
Dollar and caution ahead of the US PCE price index.
💴The Yen strengthened against USD and CHF, but USDJPY is still at 151.20.
Market Brief – Pending Orders and Apple Lawsuit Apply Selling Pressure on the NASDAQ! 💼🍏
Apple stocks witness 2nd-largest decline within NASDAQ, falling more than 4.00%. Shareholders sold after news of another federal antitrust law violation 📉🚫
Apple to receive regulator fine for “monopolizing” the phone sector. This comes after a $1.8 bln EU fine 💰🔨
NASDAQ rises 2.43% after dovish Fed before triggering pending orders. USA100 ended the day 0.24% higher 📈✨
USA100 breakout levels can be seen at $18,317.20-$18,377.37. If a bearish price movement forms, support can be found between $18,191-$18,246. 💰💼
USA100 is being better supported by stocks with less weight rather than the more influential stocks. Of the top 20 influential stocks, 9 fell in value, while only 27% fell when monitoring the whole NASDAQ 💪📊
UK Retail Sales remain unchanged beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. Pound declines against most currencies regardless of higher retail sales data 🇬🇧💷
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It's a classic 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact.
💼 Wednesday's FOMC decision heightened selling pressure on Treasuries due to further slippage in Fed rate cut expectations
📈 Corporate issuance & risk-on trades into equities also contributed to selling pressure
🏦 BOJ delivered dovish hike, ending its yield curve control and ETF buying while ushering in its first policy tightening since 2007
RBA dropped tightening bias, maintaining 4.35% policy rate, and indicated a finely balanced outlook
🏛 Wall Street experienced a bounce but pared early gains, focusing on tech enthusiasm despite evolving Fed outlook
Nikkei closed 0.66% higher, with Japanese government bond yields falling post BOJ
USDJPY lifted to 150.47 as Yen pared recent gains despite BOJ hike, due to unmet inflation targets and stark interest rate differentials favoring US
🌏 Antipodeans (AUD & NZD) slid to 2-wk lows. AUD 0.6515, NZD 0.6050
Gold eased to $2,153.95, while USOIL steadied at $82
Bitcoin drifted to $64,500, slightly above 20-DMA
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Mid-March brings a flurry of releases, with expectations for modest gains in February retail sales and restrained PPI figures. Tune in for live analysis.
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Market Recap - The Dow Jones Rises to Monthly Highs! Is Gold Retracing Or Correcting?
The Dow Jones rises to a monthly high despite higher inflation data for February 2024. 📈💹
The USA30 is trading above the 75-Bar EMA, above 60.00 on the RSI and above the VWAP. These factors indicate the asset has potential to further rise. 💪💰
The Dow Jones’s best performing stocks on Tuesday were 3M Co (+4.97), Intl Business Machines Corp (+3.16%) and Microsoft (+2.66%). 📈💼💻
US inflation rises from 3.1% to 3.2% and the Monthly Core CPI remains at recent highs for a second consecutive month. 📈💵
Gold forms its first bearish candlestick in March on the daily chart, but Dollar struggles to hold onto gains. 🕯💰
Gold’s downward price movement currently only indicates a retracement and not yet a full price correction. ⬇️💰
Market Recap - UK Salary Growth Slows But All Eyes On US Inflation Data
Pound declines due to lower salary growth & unemployment rising to 3.9% 💷📉
US Dollar Index rises after weaker UK employment data which triggered weakness in both Pound & Euro
USD traders turn to this afternoon’s inflation reading. US inflation expected to remain at 3.1% and core inflation to fall from 3.9% to 3.7% 💵📈📊
Higher inflation figures can support Dollar but significantly pressure the stock market 💹📈📉
Gold sees significantly higher trades according to the CFTC’s latest report. The commodity formed its 9th consecutive bullish candlestick (daily), but trades lower today 🥇📈📉
CFTC: US Speculative Gold contracts have risen from 141,600 to 191,300 over the past week 📊💰
The report confirms 164,640 buy contracts against only 33,580 sell contracts which indicate high demand. However, higher US inflation data can pressure Gold in the short-term. 💹📈🥇
Get ready for the new trading week with a preview of the biggest upcoming events!
See more details on the Economic Calendar on our website!
Market Recap - NFP day post ECB & FOMC signalled possible June cuts!
🌎Global stocks rallied on dovish signals from ECB and FOMC, while focus turns today on NFP.
👉Lagarde signalled that in the central scenario there will likely be sufficient evidence to make a decision in June.
Powell: Policymakers are "not far" from having sufficient confidence that inflation is coming to act.
👉Asian shares mostly saw gains, following the trend set by US stocks, which reached record highs.
💲The USDIndex extended losses and dropped to 102.67, the first close under 103 since January 15 as Treasury yields eased in the bond market after signals of lessened pressure on inflation.
💴The Yen extended advance as expectations grew for the BOJ to raise interest rates for the first time since 2007.
🇪🇺EUR & GBP broke 1-month highs and multi-month channel against the USD respectively.
👉Gold held at 2160 territory, with COT reports indicating consolidation in the near future.
🪙Bitcoin maintained above $67,400.
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🇯🇵Japan's core CPI accelerated in Feb, indicating potential for ending negative interest rates
🇨🇳China set a 5% growth target, adding pressure on officials for more stimulus and policy support to fight the property crisis and deflation!
📈Bloomberg forecasts China's growth at 4.6%
📉US and European stock futures down following weaker Asia session. NASDAQ and S&P500 hitting ATH
🇪🇺Apple Inc. faced over 2% decline due to a $2bln antitrust fine in Europe
🚘Tesla's stock dropped over 7% due to decreased shipments from its China factory in Feb
🇺🇸US and European stock futures down following weaker Asia session
💲BTCUSD remains largely positive, reaching highs of $68,800, up around 57% this year, driven by flows into US-launched ETFs
👉Gold surged to $2115 ahead of Powell's testimony
🛢USOil prices corrected lower despite OPEC+ report, amidst reports denying a deal for oil exports via the Iraqi-Turkey pipeline and Hamas-Israel ceasefire talks
📈March began with the NASDAQ composite and S&P 500 reaching new ATHs
🌎Asian stock markets initially surged due to a broader tech rally, with TSMC hitting its highest-ever level, benefiting from the AI boom
🇪🇺EU & Asian stocks rose ahead of key events like Powell’s congressional testimony and China’s National People’s Congress
📈NASDAQ climbed by 1.14% to 16,275, surpassing its previous historic peak from Nov 2021. S&P 500 also advanced marking its 15th record of the year, with gains in 16/18 sessions, the best performance since 1971
🇯🇵 Japan's Nikkei (JPN225) surpassed 40,000 for the first time
💲USDIndex fell to 103.67 amid lower Treasury yields, awaiting crucial economic data for hints on Fed interest rate cuts
🪙Bitcoin briefly exceeded $64k, with speculation mounting that it could surpass its previous record of nearly $69k
👉 Gold slightly rose to $2084 per ounce.
🛢USOil traded below $80 per barrel after OPEC+ extended output cuts until the middle of the year, supporting recent price increases.
Get ready for the trading week ahead with a preview of the biggest market moving events!
Find more details on the Economic Calendar on our website!
Five banks in a single week, along with PMI releases from major economies! Stay tuned for a whirlwind of financial updates and economic indicators. It's a week you won't want to miss!
Join us for this live session!
Market Recap - Gold & Stocks at record highs; Fed maintained rate cut forecast
🏦Fed left policy unchanged, kept rates on hold & signals 75 bp of cuts this year! Although revisions on the Fed funds path, economy & inflation were all hawkish, Powell sounded dovish
🇦🇺Australia: This morning's robust jobs data supported
🇳🇿New Zealand: GDP showed unexpected recession in the second half of 2023
🌎Asian shares rallied to highest in 2 years. NASDAQ (US100) 1st record high close since March 1, S&P500 (US500) to 5224, 1st time with a 5200 handle
📊All Magnificent Seven stocks advanced
💲USD slumped marginally with USDIndex sliding to 102.80
🇯🇵JPY, AUD & NZD reverted some losses gaining some ground against USD
🪙Gold climbs to record high above $2200 amid expectations of US interest rate cuts, which would make the non-yielding asset relatively more attractive, Chinese purchases, geopolitics turn investors to the haven asset.
All eyes on FED
📊Stocks traded mixed overnight Bonds have been in demand as the FOMC announcement comes into view.
🇩🇪German PPI backed the ECB's assessment that things are moving in the right direction.
🇬🇧UK CPI decelerates adding support to bonds.
🏦FOMC Checklist: Expectations are for no policy change, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024.
👉After a mixed open on Wall Street with weakness on profit taking after AI inspired gains. The Dow climbed 0.83%.
📈Nvidia (+1.07%) debuts next-generation Blackwell AI chip at GTC 2024.
📱Apple is in talks with Alphabet to potentially incorporate Google's generative AI engine.
💲USDJPY is at 151.57 spiking to 4 month highs whle EURJPY spiked to 16-year peak after the BOJ ended negative interest rates without clear guidance on further hikes
🧈Gold flattened for a 3rd day in a row and USOIL fell to $82.24 from $83.
🪙Bitcoin continued to pull back from its record high, falling over 5% at one point.
This week is a busy one!📅
Plan your trades with the help of our Economic Calendar.
Market Recap – Japan’s Largest Unions and Employers Agree on a 5% Wage Increase! 💼📈
Wage deals with Japan’s largest employers and unions have been agreed according to reports. Bloomberg confirms a 5% wage increase 💵💰
BOJ may hike rates as early as next week. Other economists expect April hike 🏦📈
Analysts expect BOJ interest rate to rise to 0.00% in next 2 meetings and to 0.10% in 2024. 📊💹
Producer Inflation rates double analyst expectations. CPI also continues to rise. On Thursday all indices declined because of the higher inflation data 📈📉
Oil prices rise to a 5-mth high, but struggle to hold onto gains. Higher oil prices continue to make inflation sticky ⛽️📈
31% of NASDAQ stocks decline as investors price in fewer 2024 rate hikes. However, all global indices rise this morning indicating a higher risk appetite 📉🌍📈
Market Recap - 📈 China’s Gold Imports From Switzerland More Than Triple! 💰
Significant China demand continues to push Gold prices higher! 🚀 The Swiss Federal Customs Administration advised physical exports to China have trebled in 2024.
Experts advise China is attempting to lower the risks related to the USD and of a Trump administration. 🇨🇳💵
Economists advise the higher China demand may indicate potential higher Chinese inflation. This could be a domino effect of lower interest rates and an expansionary fiscal policy. 💱💼
Gold declines 0.30% during this morning’s Asian session but remains above yesterday’s lows. 📉
Tech stocks rise pre-market, but the day’s performance will largely depend on PPI & Retail Sales 📈🔍
Analysts expect Retail Sales to fully correct declines from previous month. Annual Producer Inflation expected to rise 0.2%. 💼🛍
🛒 Core Producer inflation witnessed its sharpest rise since July 2023 🔥, but investors today will look to see if this has a domino effect. One of HFM’s Market Analysts 📈 will analyze the live release and chart to determine how inflation may influence the market’s pricing. 📊
Join us for this live session!
Market Recap - BoJ To Hike Interest Rates After Economic Growth!
Japanese economists advise BoJ may opt to hike in meeting towards the end of the month or in April. 📈
BoJ to become first G7 member to hike interest rates in 2024! 🇯🇵💰
Previously, preliminary economic growth data indicated Japanese economy has slipped into a recession. However, GDP read 0.1% which confirms “no recession”. 📉➡️📈
US added 275,000 jobs in Feb beating expectations by 80,000. 💼💪
US Average Salary Growth slowed to lowest since March 2022. US Unemployment Rate rises back to 3.9% after 3 months of no movement. 💸📉
US Stock Market unable to maintain bullish momentum & hold onto gains. Stocks traders watch this week’s CPI announcement with caution. 📊📉
According to analysts, stock market pressure could build if core inflation does not decline for a 3rd consecutive month! 💥📉
Join Michalis in today's live analysis webinar where he will share our analysts' evaluation of how assets may react to the latest NFP data.
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Yen & Gold on a Ride; ECB Today
📉 Asian stocks corrected, with US futures & European markets trading cautiously ahead of ECB
🇯🇵 BOJ's Nakagawa expressed confidence in Japan's economy achieving 2% inflation target sustainably. Speculation a BOJ board member might propose removing negative interest rates
💹Yen biggest gainer so far, with strength contrasting weakening trend over the past 2 years due to diverging interest rate policies
🇺🇸Powell reiterated potential rate cuts this year, emphasizing need for more inflation data
💼 Concerns over NY Community Bancorp led to a haven bid amid reports of seeking a cash injection
🔜Today: ECB expected to hold rates amid high services inflation, postponing rate cut expectations until June.
💲USDIndex remained below 104 on rate cut expectations, while EUR & GBP held near 1-mth highs. AUD & NZD climbed to multi-week highs
👉Gold reached a new high on safe haven bid & Oil prices rose
🪙 Bitcoin retreated slightly from record high & Ether slipped from 2yr peak
📈Risk appetite drives Bitcoin & Gold to record highs, supported by expectations for US rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about a potential equity market pullback
🪙Bitcoin surges 5% (55% ytd), fueled by investment in US spot ETF crypto products and expectations of a global interest rate decline
📉Hang Seng rebounds, driven by gains in Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent, while Nikkei corrects slightly and CSI300 falls
🇺🇸US equities futures and European contracts edged higher ahead of Powell's testimony
💲USDIndex tests 2-wk support at 103.50, while Yen strengthens against USD and GBP rises ahead of UK budget announcement
🇪🇺EUR retests highs ahead of ECB policy decision, with investors attentive to potential future rate adjustments amid persistent inflationary pressures
There are a number of key events coming up this week, including the ECB rate decision, NFP and the UK Budget!
Check the full calendar on our website
US Core PCE Price index read 0.4%, in line with expectations. January’s Core PCE Price Index was highest since May 2023. 📈💵
US Dollar Index ended the day higher but came under pressure at times from the inflation reading. 💰⬆️📉
German inflation declined to 2.6% in Feb putting more pressure on ECB to consider a “pivot”. 💼
German GDP has not recorded an increase in the past three quarters and the German GDP Growth Rate has actually fallen by 0.6% over the past year. 📉📊
NASDAQ again renews its all-time highs after rising 0.95% on Thursday and a further 0.47% in Friday’s Asian Session. 📈
Also, 34% of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks ended the day lower, which shows signs of some weakness in the market. Lastly, 10-Yr Bond Yields have risen by 0.020% and USD trades slightly higher. 📉📈💵
