US Equities had a very volatile day (huge surge in Options trading) - US Futures down and Asian markets weaker amid fears of a delay in stimulus programs, and warnings of asset bubbles in China weighed. In Europe, virus developments remain in focus with clear signs that lockdowns are working in new infection numbers, but worries about the impact of virus mutations and in the EU dissatisfaction with the slow rollout of vaccines. Yellen confirmed as Treasury Secretary, Trump impeachment passed to the Senate, Italian PM Conte quits and NZD & China sign new trade deal.
Today – UK jobs report, US consumer confidence, ECB's Villeroy, Earnings - Microsoft, Verizon, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, 3M, Starbucks, Raytheon, LVMH, UBS and Novartis.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.41%) Rejected 80.30 yesterday, broke 20 & 200hr MA and 80.00 to test 77.75 low. Recovered into 80.0 at close but has moved below S1 and yesterday's low to 79.70.
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JPY & CHF weakest, AUD & NZD bid. Asian markets moving higher today, US markets closed lower on Friday, Yields & Gold lower, Oil ticks higher. Over weekend - Biden promises $1.9 trln stimulus will happen, COVID cases, hospitalizations and variants keep spreading, vaccine rollouts patchy globally.
This week - FED on Wednesday, GDP from EU & US and a big week for Earnings - FB, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple and DAVOS goes online.
Today – German IFO, ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, Lane, Elderson, BoE Governor Bailey, Chinese President Xi at the WEF.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.51%) Recovered from Friday's test to 81.40, back over 20Hr MA today up to test 50hr & R1 at 81.75, R2 just north of 82.00. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 51 but rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remain south of 0 line from Friday's fall, Stochastics moving down from OB. H1 ATR 0.0780, Daily ATR 0.5180.
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The realization that central banks are unlikely to add further stimulus, despite still grim virus situation, seems to have been adding to the pressure on stock markets, which traded very cautiously overnight. Yields rose sharply in Australia, New Zealand, South Korea. Investors have already run far ahead with the recovery story, but restrictions to try & limit the still escalating Covid-19 infections acted as a reminder that there are still considerable downside risks in the near term. Parts of Hong Kong will reportedly go into lockdown soon, there are also warnings in the US that the situation may get worse before it gets better. That counterbalanced some of the positive earnings reports, the prospect of more fiscal stimulus at least. Intel revealed an unexpectedly strong bounce in Intel’s sales. Biggest move of Day is USDZAR (+0.81% as of 09:48 GMT).
Today: Today focuses on preliminary January PMI readings for the US, Eurozone & UK, which are expected to show a decline in sentiment in the services sector.
As the new President arrives in the White House, the #USD remains pressured, equity and commodity markets remain bid and the pandemic and lockdowns continue to underpin everything.
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The Q4 2020 corporate earnings season has begun. Markets are bracing to see corporate profits fall in Q4, overextending 2020’s fragmentation of economies as the pandemic ravaged the global economy amid the disruption of operations across numerous industries.
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The #USD rally stalled as politics, the pandemic crisis and yields all weighed. Sterling and Oil remain in demand and #Bitcoin, as ever, had a highly volatile week.
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The New Year has started focused, once again, on politics as the #USD remains under pressure and Equities stall!
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Wall Street kicked off 2021 hitting new all-time highs in opening action. But it was downhill from there with the bears taking control ahead of key event risk with the Georgia Senate runoff elections today, the surge in virus cases, and the more stringent lockdowns. Yesterday was the worst start for the USA500 since 2016. Asian stock markets traded mixed. Japan PM Suga said a decision on the possible state of emergency will be made on Thursday. The NYSE said it no longer plans to de-list China's three big telecommunication companies. The PBOC meanwhile revalued the onshore yuan by more than 1%, the biggest one-day revaluation since 2005. CSI 300 rallied 1.8%. UK PM Boris Johnson ordered a third potentially economically disastrous national lockdown for England on Monday, closing all primary and secondary schools until mid-February.
Biggest (FX) Mover – AUDUSD (+0.74% as of 09:50 GMT) – reversed nearly 75% of 2-day losses and currently retesting R1 at 0.7721. Intraday outlook is mixed. ATR 0.0014.
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Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States overnight in a peaceful ceremony. Wall Street rallied to new record highs to begin the new administration, with ongoing support from the prospects for massive additional stimulus. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures. The tech heavy USA100 continues to outperform after already rallying yesterday. Meanwhile, helping the yields market recover from the 2021 selloff has been the Fed's commitment to low rates, with the long end supported by expectations the FOMC will adjust QE purchases to cap rates, while foreign demand and dip buyers are also expected to limit selloffs.
Today: All eyes will be on ECB at 12:45 and 13:30 GMT. The data calendar meanwhile focuses on US Jobless claims New Zealand and Japan inflation data.
Biggest (FX) Mover – NZDUSD ( +0.40% as of 07:58 GMT) – The asset broke 20-DMA, regaining nearly 50% of losses seen since December 2020.
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The confirmation hearing of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary, data on international capital flows yesterday and the overall good earnings led Wall Street higher as the market eyes a hefty expansion in stimulus under the Biden administration and the Democratic-led Congress. The 2-day BoJ meeting kicks off. Germany’s lockdown extension and still high death count highlight that despite the rollout of vaccinations, the chances are still that both the Eurozone and the UK will see a technical recession over Q4/Q1 with the services sector in particular impacted by virus restrictions. Biggest (FX) Mover – AUDUSD (+0.51% as of 07:50 GMT).
Today: All eyes will be on Washington today – Inauguration at 16:15 GMT. The local data calendar meanwhile focuses on December inflation data for the UK and the Eurozone.
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European bonds have sold off & yields climbed on Monday & today is likely to bring more of the same, with stock markets moving higher in Asia. In Hong Kong, property developer stocks rose 2.5%. Shares in China Evergrande added 10.5% after the country’s largest real estate group redeemed a $2bn convertible bond early. The Hang Seng is now up more than 8% year to date, making it the best-performing big global stock benchmark in 2021. Markets are buying into reports that Fed Chair Yellen will call on the government to "act big" on spending at the Senate confirmation hearing, which should not just revive confidence in substantial stimulus programs to boost the recovery, but also confirm that the Fed won't spoil the party by reining in monetary policy too early. (Prepared remarks obtained by the Financial Times).
Biggest (FX) Mover – AUDJPY (+0.70% as of 07:35 GMT) – The asset retreated more than 50% of last week’s losses. Currently it is consolidating in the 80 area after being overbought yesterday night.
European futures down after mixed Asia session. US closed for a holiday today. Chinese bourses managed to outperform after data confirmed that the recovery remains on track, but investor sentiment seems cautious. China’s economy expanding at a faster rate than before the coronavirus. Canadian media was reporting incoming US President Joe Biden will cancel the Keystone XL pipeline project; CAD, predictably, weakened on the news.
Data releases today are thin on the ground. Data releases this week focus on the first round of confidence data for January and ECB, BoJ and BoC rate decision. The markets will be watching the changeover at the White House this week, while wondering how much of Biden's stimulus package will survive the approval process.
Biggest (FX) Mover – USDCAD (+0.51% as of 07:30 GMT) – The asset broke R1 and aligns higher along with fast MAs and BB lines.
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The dollar has traded firmer amid a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets, which, having lifted yesterday on reports of $2 tln fiscal stimulus package from president Biden, dropped back after he confirmed the package would total $1.9 tln. Markets overlooked dovish remarks from Fed Chairman Powell, who ruled out raising interest rates anytime soon & rejected suggestions the central bank might start reducing its bond purchases in near term. Overnight UK data weak; GDP -2.6% but not as bad as expected. EZ CPI in line with expectations.
Today – US Retail Sales, NY Fed manufacturing, industrial production, Uni. of Michigan, Earnings from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.60%) Having rejected 75.00 yesterday, the pair breached the 50 & 20-hour moving average and Daily pivot point earlier. Fast MAs aligned & trending lower, RSI 32 falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower & south of 0 line from earlier, Stochastics OS since MACD broke 0 line.
Biden stimulus announcement later, Trump impeached. Asian markets move higher, US CPI & Oil yesterday inline with expectations, Lagarde talked of extending PEPP as required and hopes for a digital EUR within 5 years. Overnight - More good news for JPY and the largest ever Chinese monthly trade surplus (78.2Bln and a +18.1% increase in Exports). AUD & NZD benefit the most. Gold & Oil lower, Bitcoin bounced again.
China reports first COVID death in six months.
Today – ECB minutes, US weekly jobs data, OPEC MOMR, President-elect Biden to unveil his stimulus package, Fed's Powell, Rosengren, Bostic, Kaplan.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.41%) Daily chart breached 20SMA Nov. 3 at 74.80 - Bounced from 80.25 on open, data and stimulus expectation helping test 80.75 earlier. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 61 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and north of 0 line from earlier, Stochastics OB since MACD broke 0 line. H1 ATR 0.1025, Daily ATR 0.6000.
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House vote tonight to impeach President Trump (YouTube have banned him for 7 days), Pence will not initiate the 25th Amendment to remove him. The symbolism is significant; no President has ever been impeached twice. Equities flat too (UBER +7.24%, TSLA +4.72%, FB -2.24%, GOOGL & NFLX -1.00%), Asian markets also flat. GBP rallied after Bailey pushed back on Negative Interest Rates. Oil rallied over 1% after surprise inventory drawdowns, peaked at $53.90, AUD pegged by possible RBA "push back" to strong AUD. Gold recovered $1850.
Today – EZ industrial production, US CPI, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bullard, Brainard, Harker, Clarida.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.23%) 5th day higher - Bounced from 200MA on open, testing 1.7625 now, key resistance 1.7650. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and north of 0 line from Monday open, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.023, Daily ATR 0.0125.
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Yields up significantly as virus worries escalate & political uncertainty swirls. Democrats lodge papers to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn't act to remove him. Neither of which are likely to come to fruition but the symbolism is significant. Equities lower (TSLA -7.82% & TWTR -6.4%), Asian markets mixed (Japan flat). Bitcoin crashed 20% before recovering 50% of loss, Oil recovered & Gold remains pressured by strong Yields. Overnight - weak Japanese bank lending & the worst UK Retail Sales figures since 1995, +4.8% vs 5.9% & 7.7% in Dec.
Today – US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, BoE's Broadbent, Fed's Brainard, Kaplan, Mester, Rosengren, ECB's de Cos.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.40%) Bounced from 200MA on open. Breached PP (0.6384) earlier and tested R1 (0.6400). Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remains south of 0 line this morning, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0050.
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JPY, AUD & NZD weaken, yields up as virus worries escalate & China pushes back on US sanctions & reacts to US normalizing relations with Taiwan. Speaker Pelosi's plans to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn't act to remove him. Equities closed at new ATHs on Friday, despite big miss for NFP. Asian markets mixed (Japan closed today) Gold, Bitcoin & Oil all down sharply. Overnight Chinese inflation better than expected, Aussie Retail Sales in line at a perky 7%.
This week - US Retail sales and Inflation, UK GDP, lots of Central bankers speaking topped by Powell on Thursday.
Today – EZ Sentix Index, BoE's Tenreyro, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, Kaplan.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.65%) Continued Friday’s decline on open, moved down from PP, now under 200Hr MA to pivot at 0.7700. S2 0.7690. Slow & Fast MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 35 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, significant break of 0 line this morning, Stochs rising from OS zone.
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The dollar's correlative pattern with stock markets has inverted, with the currency now rising in step with rallying global stock markets. With the turmoil in Washington dying down and President Trump pledging a peaceful transition markets are once again buying into the recovery story. USA30 rising over the 31,200 mark, USA100 challenging 13,0670, and USA500 seeing the 3830 mark. CSI 300 underperformed as China locked down a city near Beijing following a rise in Covid infections. Australia saw restrictions tightened again for some areas. The UK strain has been detected in Queensland capital Brisbane and the city will go into a 3-day lockdown. Today’s calendar focuses on the non-farm payroll report for December.
Biggest (FX) Movers – GBPCHF (+0.39% as of 09:00 GMT) and XAGUSD (2.12% decline).
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The Equity market shot higher on the surprise Georgia Senate election results that give the Democrats control over Washington with the presidency, the House, & Senate. Expectations for more stimulus boosted USA30 over 2% higher to hit 31,022. Treasury yields surged on the worries over rising inflation & an increasing debt load. Reports that the Trump administration wants to blacklist 2 major telecom companies seem to have weighed on tech companies & USA100. Alibaba & Tencent shares dropped on the news. In Europe yields are climbing higher, despite virus developments & the rising risk of a technical recession in the UK & the Eurozone thanks to lockdown measures. GER30 & UK100 futures are currently up 0.2% & 0.6%. Today's data calendar has Eurozone retail sales, preliminary inflation numbers for December & US ISM Services PMI along with jobless claims.
Biggest (FX) Mover – XRPUSD (+16.95% as of 09:57 GMT) – managed to revert last week’s losses as cryptocurrency market capitalisation spiked above $1 trillion.
Markets are betting that the Democrats will take both Senate seats in Georgia and expectations of further stimulus seem to be driving up yields as markets ramp up long term inflation expectations. - Yields climbed toward their highest levels since March. Trump administration said to ban transactions with apps including payments platforms. Japan's finance ministry said that is considering to put a lid on the Yen. A rally in crude oil to a 10-month high of $50.20 knocked USDCAD to 1.2650 from 1.2780 yesterday after Saudi Arabia has pledged to slash an extra 1m barrels a day of oil output in February and March even as Russia and Kazakhstan, will increase production. BTC – breaks 35k- inflation-resistant asset?? Today – The Georgia election will remain the key focus for markets and the FOMC tonight.
Biggest (FX) Mover – NZDJPY ( +0.67% as of 09:50 GMT) – Third month higher after rejecting 3years down channel. Intraday, it spiked above R2 as fast MAs point upwards.
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2020 was another great year for us achieving an outstanding performance!! 🏆 Together we celebrated our 10th anniversary in the industry expanding our global footprint and strengthening our services and products portfolio! Thank you all for your loyalty and trust! 😉🎉
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