Both the Dollar and US Treasury yields have settled off their respective highs, while global equity markets have come off the boil as investors take stock in the face of lofty valuations. Commodities remain on bid, with copper (+2.85%) and other base metals surging to fresh multi-year highs. Bitcoin rallied to yet another record high, this time above $52,500, amid increasing signs that the asset class is becoming accepted by institutional investors.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (09:30 GMT) GBPUSD (+0.39%) Rallied from 1.3845 H1 floor and 200Hr MA at 1.3835. 20MA and faster MAs aligned higher, following breach of R1 and 1.3900. RSI 68 and rising, MACD histogram breaks above 0 line, Signal line rising but still below 0. Stochastics broke into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0082.
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The selloff in Treasuries deepened as the market returned from its long Presidents Day weekend. The stock rally started to run out of steam, while the selloff in bond markets continued. The bear steepener remained fully intact as the reflation trade and technicals gripped the market. Equities have already come a long way and there may not be much appetite to push valuations out further at this point, but stimulus hopes and vaccine developments continue to fuel reflation trades. In FX markets USDJPY dropped back to 105.96. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.19. EURUSD dropped back to 1.2070. Bitcoin rose, again, through $50,000 as signs of big investor interest in the asset drive more and more buying. Gold prices extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, slipping to near 2-week lows as soaring US Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar dented the bullion’s appeal.
Today – Data releases today focus on US Retail sales and Canadian inflation for January, along with the FOMC minutes.
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The Greenback came under pressure again this week, as stock markets rallied, the frenzy surrounding GameStop moved to #Tesla and #Bitcoin and US Treasury yields held up!
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Equities (Nasdaq +0.95%) & BTC (+20%, $47k) rally to new all-time highs & USD loses more momentum (USDIndex 90.65). USOil rallies to 13-month highs ($58.50), Gold up to 1840 and 10-yr Yields closed at 1.16%. Details of US stimulus package show unemployment insurance will run until August 29th, & $1,400 cheques at the same income level as prior round but will reduce when income hits 75K. EU will follow Australia and get tech firms to pay for news (FT). Walt Disney & Gen. Motors up over 4.5% ahead of Earnings this week.
Today - German trade balance, US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB's Lane, Fed's Bullard, Earnings – Twitter, Cisco & Total.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.40%) Continued Friday's rally from 71.35 lows and break of 20 MA yesterday at 0.7200 to test R1 today at 0.7245. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 63 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher & significantly over 0 line, Stochs falling from OB zone after R1 breach, MFI remains in OB zone.
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A busy start to February has seen continued support for the Greenback, a surprise from the RBA and a big bounce back for private jobs in the US. With the #BOE, Weekly Claims and #NFP still to come what more could be in store this week?
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Stock markets moved broadly higher after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday. Concern over volatility in retail trading has started to recede and stimulus hopes and vaccine progress are keeping sentiment underpinned. Tech stocks outperformed ahead of earnings from the likes of Amazon and Alphabet today. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. US futures are also higher, with the tech-heavy USA100 outperforming. JPN225 closed with a gain of 0.97%. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.3 bp at 1.08%, while Australian 10-year rates climbed 0.5 bp even as the RBA announced an extension of asset purchases worth an additional AUD 100 bln. The Dollar was on bid overall on Monday, with a new month reportedly seeing USD inflows, despite the general risk-on conditions seen which typically weigh on USD. Silver in retreat, fell by 4% back below $28 after CME raised its margin on silver futures, which is arguably a significant factor in driving prices lower today.
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Risk appetite improved over the weekend and Asian markets moved broadly higher overnight, despite weakness in China and Japan manufacturing PMIs. European futures suggest a solid start for equities after both bonds and stock markets declined at the end of last week. There were also signs that the cash crunch in China is easing, which helped to underpin sentiment. The GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.75% and 0.2% respectively, alongside gains of around 0.4% in US futures. XAGUSD rallied for a third straight session, soaring as much as 7.4% to a near 6-month peak, after social media posts last week called for retail investors to flood into the market. This morning: Unprecedented demand but lack of offers?
Biggest Mover USDMXN (-1.12% as of 07:55 GMT).
Today: Focus mainly on final manufacturing PMI readings for the UK, the Eurozone, which suggest ongoing but slowed expansion across the sector. US President Biden will meet with 10 Republican senators to discuss COVID-19. ISM Manufacturing PMIs on tap as well.
Stocks recover, (the Reddit quartet lose 50-35%) but futures and Asian markets down (worst week in 3 – Nikkei lost 1.89% and 3.8% this week) as restrictions imposed by Robinhood to be eased today and there is a lack of liquidity in China. US GDP in line with expectations but US economy had its worst year since WWII, Claims were better but still 840K (normal econ cycle 200K) – Vaccine production and rollout delays (partic in EU) adding to nerves. Positive news – NOVAVAX -90% efficacy in UK trial but in SA trial it dropped to 49% (60% on non-HIV patients). Oil & Gold remain flat. Mastercard, Visa & Comcast beat earnings expectations, McDonald's missed but offered positive outlook.
Today - German jobs report, US PCE, personal consumption, Canadian GDP, Chicago PMI, Uni. of Michigan (final), ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Kaplan, Daly - Earnings from Chevron, Caterpillar, Honeywell, SAP, Siemens, Ericsson, BBVA.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.30%) rallied from open and support at 104.25 (PP).
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USD gets safe haven lift, AUD & NZD hit. Hedge Funds squeezed, stimulus stalled? and vaccine rollout questions. FED - No change to rates & $120 bln/month in QE, the mantra remains until "substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals." Durable Goods missed earlier in the day. Earnings from the tech players all exceed expectations (APPLE (-0.77% $100bln+ in revenues and record iPhone sales) FB recorded revenues but closed down -3.5% "significant uncertainty" ahead. TESLA (-2% missed expectations, but talked up deliveries and a new van. Asian markets closed down -1.53%. The VIX closed over its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 4.Today – German CPI, US GDP (Q4), PCE, Weekly Claims, ECB's Schnabel. EARNINGS - Comcast, American Airlines, Visa, Southwest Airlines, McDonalds, Mastercard, STMicroelectronics
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.60%) Rejected 0.7750 yesterday breached 20 & 200HR MA early PM.
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Asian markets also flat. US Consumer Confidence much better than expected. Overnight, AUD CPI improved, JPY data flat and German Consumer Confidence dropped significantly (-15.6 from -7.5). Vaccine rollout continues apace in the UK but the virus death toll passed 100,000 yesterday and unemployment hit a new record. Trump impeachment likely to fail as only 5 of the required 17 Senate Republicans agree it should proceed.
Today – US Durable Goods, DoEs, FOMC rate decision & Fed Chair Powell press conference, NZ trade, ECB's Hakkarainen, Lane, Earnings from Apple, AT&T, Facebook, Boeing, Tesla, Blackstone.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from open today following break of 20hr MA yesterday. Support now PP 1.7435 and testing R1 at 1.7490. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 70 rising & testing OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and significantly north of 0 line. MFI in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0103.
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Equity markets once again hit all time highs but attention is back on the #Bond market with market expectations for US inflation at a 10 year high!
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The stock rally continued overnight as sentiment remains underpinned by growing conviction that the vaccine rollout will boost the global recovery & as Asian markets are coming back from the extended weekend. JPN225 closed 1.3% higher after trimming some gains following an FT story that China is considering limiting rare earth mineral supplies to US defence contractors, which rekindled concern over the future of US-China relations. This is a reminder that virus developments are not the only factor determining the world growth outlook. In FX markets, USDIndex fell to a 3-week low, USDJPY lifted to 105.54. USOIL retraced from $60.95 - US boosted power demand but also threatened oil production in Texas. Bitcoin flirts with breaking through the $50,000 barrier - 350% gains in the past 12 months.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.51%) Broke 3-year Resistance area 76-76.50 following a 3-month rally. Faster MAs however have retraced the past 4 hours, confirming the pullback from 76.70 highs to 76.30.
Stock markets moved higher at the start of the week as confidence in global recovery strengthened. Japan Q4 GDP numbers came in higher than expected, the first BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines arrived in Japan & some suggested that the US stimulus package is still not fully priced in. Israel's largest healthcare provider reported a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 infections among 600,000 people. JPN225 closed above 30000 for the first time since August 1990. BTCUSD fell more than 3% to $46,992, below a record high of $49,714.66. Oil prices lifted on cold weather & some reports of Middle East tensions.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.74%) - broke 3-year hıgh.
Today - Data releases today include Eurozone trade & production data for December, which are too backward looking to have a real impact at this juncture. China & Hong Kong are still on holiday & markets will also remain closed in the US & Canada today, which will likely make for very quiet trading conditions that could exaggerate moves.
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US Equities flat (Tilray -49.7%, latest Reddit frenzy, DISNEY & Pepsi beat expectations – big gains for Disney+ & lots of snacking at home in lockdowns). Weekly Claims data weak again. Most of Asia closed for Lunar New Year, Nikkei also flat into close. BTC rallied towards 49K BNY Mellon will accept it as custodian status. Oil slips tad on reduced forecasts from OPEC+ & the EIA consider the market still over supplied, Gold lost over 420 to 1820, 10yr yields spiked 1.16% as new 30yr Treasuries were poorly received. Overnight UK GDP beat at 1.0% & Q3 revised up 1% to 16%, which leaves an overall record -9.9% for 2020; other industrial data better than expected.
Today – CAD Wholesale Sales, UoM Inflation & Consumer Sentiment & FED’s Williams.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCAD (+0.20%) Broke 1.2700 on close yesterday, now over R1 and testing 1.2725. Faster MAs aligned & trending higher, RSI 65 rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and broke over 0 line on open today.
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Equities finished flat (TWTR +13%). China, Japan, South Korea closed for start of Lunar New Year. US Inflation disappointed, taking the steam from “buy everything” rally of the last few days. Biden spoke of concern about China's "coercive & unfair economic practices" & human rights, ahead of speaking with Xi. Powell spoke of the bond purchasing programme continuing until Inflation rises. Lagarde talked of not the time to slow down fiscal support & a digital EUR within 4 yrs. Oil slips a tad, Gold also consolidates, 10yr yields dipped to 1.12%. Overnight German Wholesale Inflation spiked to 2.1% from 0.6%, AstraZeneca Q4 sales beat estimates.
Today - US initial/continued jobless claims, OPEC & IEA MOMR, ECB's de Guindos & Earnings from 185 US cos including PepsiCo and Walt Disney.
Biggest (FX) Mover (AUDUSD +0.38%) - Rallied to R1 at 0.7750, yesterday’s high 0.7755. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 61 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and breaking over 0 line.
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Equities finished flat but Asian markets & Futs higher after good earnings reports from Twitter, Cisco, Lyft and Toyota. Oil holds at 13-month highs, Gold holds 1840, BTC peaked at 48k and 10-yr Yields closed at 1.16% again, with expectations of inflation raised. Overnight JPY PPI in line but CNY CPI surprisingly dipped too (-0.3%), German CPI in line with expectations at 0.8%.
Today – US CPI, Oil inventories, ECB's Lagarde, Panetta, BoE's Bailey, Fed's Powell, new Bonds from the UK, Germany & the US – Earnings from Coke, General Motors, Under Armour, Uber & 152 more US companies.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.14%) Continued Friday's decline from 0.9050 highs and re-break of 20 MA on Monday below 0.9000 to test S1 today at 0.8910. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 24 & and OS, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower & significantly under 0 line, Stochs OS zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0050.
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Equities rally & USD loses momentum following weak NFP (49k vs 105k). Stimulus package ($1.9 tn – looks likely), vaccine rollout and signs of virus containment increase sentiment & prospects of economic recovery. Oil (+1%) & Nikkei 225 (+2.12%) big gainers in early week trades. Yellen talks of stimulus cheques for all earning less than $60K and that unemployment could be back to pre-pandemic levels during 2022. 10yr Treasuries spiked higher (2.72%) to 1.17%.
Today - Eurozone Sentix, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Mester.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.25%) Continued Friday's rally from 75.30 low and break of 20 & 50 MA to 76.00 earlier today. R1 & Upper BB 76.10. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 & and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher significantly over 0 line, Stochs falling after 76.00 breach. H1 ATR 0.0930, Daily ATR 0.5650.
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Stock markets have moved broadly higher overnight after a strong close on Wall Street, which was supported by indications that the labour market is recovering, positive forecast for upcoming earnings, ongoing hope of stimulus as markets buy into the expected recovery in the world economy later in the year, when vaccination programs have helped to re-open economies. Global stock rally also paused briefly & despite cautious words from central bankers highlighting ongoing risks, investors are increasingly buying into the recovery story. Strength was also broadbased though paced by tech, financials, energy. USA100 climbed to 13,777. That left sentiment upbeat ahead of the US payroll numbers today. Also helping has been the improving outlook on the pandemic as vaccine jabs increase and virus cases slow.
Biggest (FX) Mover – USOIL (-0.80% as of 08:50 GMT) – clocked a fresh 1-year high at $56.84, breaking the 200-week SMA with a strong weekly bullish candle ignoring the 3-week doji candles posted so far.
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The global stock rally has run out of steam and Asian equity indexes are broadly lower. The USA100 gave up gains to finish fractionally in the red. Risk appetite remained supported by mostly robust earnings, stronger than expected data, and hopes of a hefty $1.9 tln stimulus package.
Today: Focus mainly on Eurozone retail sales and the UK CIPS Construction PMI. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin and markets will also look to Italy, where former ECB head Draghi accepted the mandate to try and form a new government. The BoE will announce its latest policy review today.
Biggest (FX) Mover – GBPAUD (-0.49% as of 09:50 GMT) – it continued aggressively southwards for the 2nd day in a row, reverting more than 35% of January’s gains. The asset is below 50- and 200-DMA, while intraday its fast MAs are sloping aggressively lower. Technical indicators are negatively configured with any rebound implying an increasing negative bias. ATR 0.00187, Daily ATR 0.01109.
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The major indexes climbed back toward recent highs as the better than expected revenue estimates from Alphabet and Amazon helped to bolster confidence, also helped by hopes of accelerated fiscal stimulus in the US. JPN225 gained 1% & ASX 0.9%, although Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently both marginally lower after the PBOC drained some funds from the financial system. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
Today: Focus mainly on fundamentals which will be a focal point near term with ADP & ISM services reports today, the jobs report Friday. Also Eurozone inflation data & final readings for Eurozone and UK Services PMIs meanwhile will act as a reminder that for now virus restrictions continue to weigh on overall activity and keep Europe on track for a recession over Q4/Q1.
Biggest Mover NZDJPY (+0.41% as of 08:00 GMT) - The asset rallied after New Zealand approved its first Covid-19 vaccine but also on the better than expected Q4 2020 Unemployment rate of 4.9% (vs. expected 5.6%).
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Global stock markets have traded mixed so far, as concerns over virus mutations and speculation of a possible delay in US stimulus support an overall more cautious tone. #USD remains steadied, same as #USOIL and #Gold as the markets focus closely on the FOMC and its aftermaths and earnings releases.
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