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🥇 Gold Pulls Back Below $5,000
Profit-taking kicks in as thin Lunar New Year liquidity weighs on metals. Despite today’s drop, gold remains up 70% YoY and silver 140% — volatility is high, but the broader trend is still intact.
🤖 AI Volatility Shakes Wall Street
Software and tech stocks continue to feel pressure as investors reassess AI disruption risks. Markets stabilized late last week, but uncertainty remains elevated.
🌏 Asia Trades Lightly
China, South Korea, and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year. Reduced liquidity led to mixed performance across the region, with Japan pressured by weak GDP data.
💱 Emerging Market Currencies Stay Strong
EM FX volatility is near multi-decade lows. A softer dollar and carry trade flows continue supporting developing-market assets.
📊 What’s Next? US Inflation Data
All eyes now turn to the upcoming PCE report. With Fed rate-cut expectations in focus, this could be the next major catalyst.
Join our live CPI release analysis as we react in real time to the inflation numbers and explain how they impact market volatility, tradable assets, and potential trading opportunities.
Watch the full analysis today at 13:30 GMT.
🌎 Global markets fell on Thursday on fears that rapid AI adoption could disrupt multiple sectors. Fears arise after the release of multiple AI products throughout the week. Asian stocks slightly improve on Friday, but US stocks continue to fall.
🤖 According to economists, AI products may automate tasks, hurt traditional revenue streams, and increase unemployment risks.
📉 The stock market saw the largest decline within a week and gave up all of 2026’s gains so far. Today’s price movement is likely to also depend on this afternoon’s CPI release.
📊 Analysts expect inflation to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%, positive for investor sentiment and the stock market. However, if inflation does not decline to this level, investors will fear a prolonged pause, and this can pressure stocks further.
💻 Companies like Cisco Systems warned of higher expenses and lower profitability, which intensified selling in tech and other growth stocks. Cisco's stock fell 12% after releasing its latest earnings report.
🛡️ Traders show a risk-off appetite and move out of equities and into safer assets, particularly bonds, ahead of Friday’s CPI inflation report.
🛒 Defensive stocks such as Walmart were one of the few stocks on Thursday to increase in value. 75% of the NASDAQ declined on Thursday.
💵 The best performing currency of the day is the US Dollar, which is finding support from demand for Treasuries. The worst-performing currencies of the day are the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen.
🪙 Gold also witnessed a strong decline as investor sentiment soured, as investors preferred to opt for bonds as their safe haven asset. However, Gold has steadily risen after this sudden selloff.
🇨🇭 Switzerland again sees inflation figures indicate deflation, with the monthly figures showing a decline of 0.1%. However, the lower inflation rate does not negatively affect the CHF.
⚖️ A positive factor for the global economy is that President Trump is contemplating whether to slightly lower tariffs on certain metals. These tariffs were put in place last summer, but recent reports indicate these tariffs may be reduced.
🛢️ The main driver of Oil’s decline remains geopolitical. On February 12th, President Trump said Iran nuclear talks could last a month, ruling out an immediate strike. The stronger Dollar also pressures Oil demand.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/ai-fears-weigh-global-stocks-ahead-todays-cpi
🟡 Gold rebounded after a sharp drop, recovering 58% of its 21% decline, but lost momentum in the past 24-hours. All investors are turning their attention to today’s NFP data.
💵 The US Dollar is weakening, but Gold’s rise has been relatively modest despite the typical inverse correlation. Traders are considering whether the price reaction will be delayed.
⚒️ All metals increase in value on Wednesday, but price performance will depend on this afternoon's employment data. Analysts advise that the price of metals may rise if the US and Iran do not come to a nuclear agreement.
📈 According to the Chicago exchange, the possibility of an interest rate cut in March has risen from 9% to 21%.
💹 The best performing currencies of the day are the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar. The worst-performing currencies are the US Dollar and Euro.
📉 National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tells the market to expect weaker employment data and “not to panic”.
🇪🇺 European Indices decline despite global indices trading higher on Wednesday. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, expects eurozone inflation to dip below 2% this year before stabilising, a view shared by German Federal Bank President Joachim Nagel, who says monetary policy is optimal.
🏛️ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for simplifying regulations and deepening the EU’s single market to boost competitiveness against the US and China.
🔹 80% of the S&P 500’s components increased in value during Wednesday’s pre-trading hours and also found support from the VIX Index declining.
🇺🇦 Ukraine plans spring elections: Ukraine is preparing presidential elections and a peace-deal referendum by mid‑May under external pressure, marking a major political shift amid ongoing conflict.
🛢️ Oil prices are rising as markets monitor US-Iran nuclear talks, which could impact supply. Without a deal, Strait of Hormuz restrictions might cut output to 20M barrels/day. The US warned American vessels to avoid Iran’s waters amid suspicious activity.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/gold-breaks-traditional-dollar-correlation
Get ready for a busy week on the charts ⚡️
Key economic releases could set the tone for markets ahead.
📅 Check out this week’s market calendar via the link here.
💬 What’s on your radar this week
🚨 Risk-Off Mood Spreads
The rush into crowded trades is fading fast, as investors pull back from tech, gold and crypto. This isn’t one big shock, but a steady flow of negative news forcing markets to question stretched valuations.
📉 Stocks Under Pressure
US equities slid again, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 posting its deepest drop since April. Selling was broad, driven by AI competition fears and concerns over massive tech spending. Amazon sank more than 11% after announcing $200bn in AI investment, while Alphabet and software stocks also moved lower. The defensive tone spilled into Asia and Europe, with chipmakers and global equities under pressure.
🥈 Commodities & Crypto Break Down
Silver collapsed nearly 20%, while Bitcoin dropped over 13%, erasing gains since Trump’s election as leveraged positions were unwound.
🛡 Safety Back in Focus
US Treasuries rallied as investors shifted from chasing returns to protecting capital.
🛢 Oil Stabilises on Geopolitics
Oil rebounded ahead of US-Iran talks, with Brent near $69 and WTI above $64, though crude remains on track for its first weekly loss since mid-December.
⚠️ Bottom Line
This isn’t panic, it’s a reset. Momentum is fading and markets are turning defensive.
Is EURUSD finding its way back into its old range or just catching its breath before the next big move? 📊
In this video, we break down the EURUSD market structure, key support and resistance zones, and technical indicators to see what price action is really telling us.
▶️ What’s driving the current move?
▶️ Where are momentum and trend pointing next?
▶️ Which levels matter most right now?
Do you see EURUSD rotating lower, or is a breakout coming?
Full video here!
🌍 Global Markets
Volatility returned as investors digested political developments in the US and Europe, with markets focusing more on rotation than outright risk-off moves.
🏛 US & Fed: The US government shutdown ended with little market impact. Attention remains on the Fed, as political friction raises the possibility of Powell staying on as FOMC Chair beyond May, a scenario markets view as stabilising.
📉 Equities: US stocks slipped, led by a sell-off in technology. Concerns over AI spending, stretched valuations, and earnings sustainability weighed on names like Nvidia, Microsoft, and PayPal, reinforcing a rotation away from growth.
🌏 Asia Markets: Asian shares were mixed. Japan and Hong Kong eased on tech weakness, while South Korea’s Kospi continued to hit record highs. Software stocks across the region faced pressure amid fears of AI-driven disruption.
🥇 Gold & Silver: Precious metals rebounded sharply after last week’s historic sell-off. Gold reclaimed levels above $5,000, while silver surged as dip buyers returned despite elevated volatility.
🛢 Oil: Oil prices firmed for a second session as geopolitical tensions resurfaced in the Gulf following the downing of an Iranian drone, adding a modest risk premium to crude.
💱 FX: The US dollar was broadly steady. The yen weakened ahead of Japan’s election, while the euro edged higher on expectations of further Eurozone disinflation.
₿ Crypto: Bitcoin stabilised after hitting a more-than-one-year low, but sentiment remains fragile as investors assess downside risks and leverage across the crypto space.
👀 Trader Takeaway: Markets are rotating, not panicking. Expect volatility to stay elevated, with opportunities emerging across commodities, FX, and non-tech equity sectors.
Read today's article 👉
https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/market-briefing-tech-sell-off-gold-rebound-and-rising-geopolitical-tensions-shake-global-markets
🟡 Gold & Silver: Precious metals suffered historic losses as a crowded, momentum-driven rally unwound. Gold is now nearly 20% below recent highs, while silver erased its year-to-date gains in just a few sessions.
💵 US Dollar: The dollar rebounded sharply after heavy short positioning, gaining most against commodity-linked currencies such as AUD, NZD and NOK following the metals sell-off.
🇦🇺Australian Dollar: AUDUSD to the highest since February 2023 - short term driver is metals and long term driver Friday's robust employment data, as markets increasingly anticipate a series of rate hikes. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.3%
🌍 FX Volatility: Currency market volatility has surged to levels last seen in April, now exceeding equity volatility, signalling a shift in where macro risk is being priced.
🏦 Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh’s nomination as potential Fed chair revived hawkish expectations, prompting a repricing of rate-cut bets and renewed focus on Fed independence.
📉 Equities: Global stocks weakened as concerns grew over stretched AI-related valuations and political influence on monetary policy, with sharp losses across Asia and US futures.
🛢 Oil: Crude prices dropped as geopolitical risk premiums faded following diplomatic signals around Iran, easing fears of near-term supply disruptions.
⚠️ The surprise timing of the Fed chair announcement triggered risk-off sentiment, pressuring stocks and Gold.
📉 Markets previously were expecting a dovish Fed nominee, prompting investors to price in frequent rate cuts later this year. However, Kevin Warsh is predicted to be the President’s nominee.
🦅 Markets fear Kevin Warsh nomination due to his inflation-hawk stance and QE skepticism. Market’s question whether Mr Warsh is indeed dovish.
🪙 Gold has fallen by 8.50% since the opening of the US Session on Thursday. The stock market has also fallen, with the S&P 500 trading almost 1.00% lower on Friday and all other indices also trading lower.
💵 The US Dollar started the day with a bullish price gap measuring 0.30%, but has remained more or less stable since the open.
🏛️ Tom Tillis will not approve of the nominee unless the US drops legal proceedings against Federal Reserve members. Trump is reportedly looking for a nominee who would reassure markets while also supporting his push for faster and deeper rate cuts.
🔮 New trends will depend on whether Kevin Warsh will be the President’s nominee. In addition, the new Chairman's first comments on inflation and interest rates can create high volatility levels.
🚀 SpaceX is reportedly considering a merger with Tesla and xAI, potentially deepening integration across Musk’s aerospace, EV, and AI businesses while raising regulatory questions.
📈 In response to the SpaceX developments, Tesla stock rose almost 3.00% after market close.
☁️ Amazon is reportedly in talks to expand its investment in OpenAI by up to $50 billion, which could significantly deepen its cloud and AI partnership and strengthen Amazon Web Services’ position in the AI race.
🕵️ The US is investigating whether Meta had access to WhatsApp messages breaking US privacy laws due to a recent whistleblower.
🍏 Apple earnings per share and revenue read higher than previous Wall Street projections. However, the stock’s bullish price movement remains limited due to rising expenses.
💱 The best performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and Euro. The worst performing are the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar.
Read today's article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/markets-kevin-warsh-fed-trump
📉 The Federal Reserve held rates steady, signalled no March cut, and emphasised independence, but the US Dollar continues to weaken.
🌍 The Dollar’s decline is driven more by geopolitical risks, shutdown fears, and investor positioning than by Fed policy.
🏛️ The US budget expires 30 January, and negotiations between President Trump and Senate Democrats continue, with DHS funding and ICE reforms as key sticking points.
⚠️ Analysts estimate a 70% chance of a government shutdown, which could further pressure the US Dollar and market sentiment.
💻 Microsoft shares fell 7% after hours as weaker-than-expected cloud growth and margin guidance, including Azure revenue rising 37-38% (slightly below forecasts), and a $250B OpenAI deal representing 45% of its commercial backlog, raised investor caution.
🚀 Even though Microsoft stocks fell after its latest earnings report, Tesla, Meta and Lam Research saw significant gains. Meta Stocks saw the largest gains, increasing 6.65% after market close.
🪙 Gold continues to increase in value for an eighth consecutive day despite obtaining overbought indications from technical analysis.
⛏️ All global metals increase in value over the past 24-hours with Copper, Gold and Platinum witnessing the strongest gains. Weakness in the US Dollar, possible tariffs and US shutdown fears drives demand.
🛢️ Oil prices have increased in value for a third consecutive day and are close to a five-month high. Driving the price movement are the weakness in the US Dollar, tensions with Iran and ongoing Kazakhstan supply disruptions.
💱 The best performing currencies of the day are the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc. The worst performing are the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.
🇨🇦 The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25% despite concerns over economic growth and employment.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/us-dollar-slides-shutdown-fears-despite-fed-pause
In this video, HFM’s market analyst, Michalis, will be using technical analysis to explain why the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are the best performing in 2026 and what it means for traders. 🔍
What is driving these currencies significantly higher?
Let’s find out! 👀 https://youtube.com/watch?v=mTbNNaN9Yww
The week ahead is packed with potential market movers. 📊
Key economic data and announcements could set the tone for the markets ahead.
📅 Check out the full weekly calendar here.
💬 Which events are on your radar this week?
Two live sessions you don’t want to miss! ⚡️
On Tuesday, discover a simple 5-minute scalping strategy, learn to spot institutional trades and use supply and demand zones for high-accuracy setups. On Wednesday, join a live Gold trading session as we break down price action in real time and identify emerging trends.
Reserve your spot for Tuesday and Wednesday !
📊 In this video, we break down the markets using live charts to analyse Gold and the NASDAQ, while exploring how Trump’s latest comments and geopolitical developments are influencing price action.
We look at key technical levels, market sentiment, and how political risk is shaping volatility across these assets. ⚠️
Full video here!
New week. Fresh data. New opportunities 🚀
Key releases could set the pace across global markets.
📅 Get the full picture with our weekly calendar.
💬 What’s your strategy for the week ahead?
Don’t Miss This Week’s Live Webinars! ⚡️
Kick off Tuesday with Timing and Time Frames in Forex to master multi-timeframe analysis, sharpen entries and exits, and spot the best moments to trade. Then on Wednesday, join Simple Trading Strategies for First-Time Traders for step-by-step methods to get started with a clear structure and direction.
Build a stronger foundation and improve your timing.
Reserve your spot for Tuesday and Wednesday!
📊 US jobs data strongly beat expectations, with NFP at +130K, higher wages, and lower unemployment, signalling a resilient labour market.
💵 The US Job added on the NFP data reads more than double the 6-month average, boosting the US Dollar after declining for 3 consecutive days. Sentiment towards the US economy significantly improves.
🏦 Fed rate cut expectations declined, with markets now pricing a 94% probability of a pause in March and only one 25bps cut in 2026.
🗣️ According to the former senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tim Mahedy, told journalists, “It absolutely complicates the argument for lower rates.”. “The January data were really strong”.
🇬🇧 The UK’s GDP figures for January read 0.1% as per expectations and remain lower than the previous month. The Prelim GDP for the upcoming release is 0.1%, slightly lower than the previous projections.
🇺🇸 6 Republicans cross party lines to offer a rare rebuke of Trump's tariffs on Canada. Trump openly threatened lawmakers who crossed him in a Truth Social post, writing that Republicans who oppose tariffs "will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time."
📈 Debt continues to rise, according to the latest data from the Fed Bank of NY. The latest report on household debt and credit shows that total debt increased by $191 billion to a new high.
🟡 Gold prices slightly weakened after the release of the new NFP Change. However, the price of Gold continues to follow range-bound wave patterns.
💱 The best performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar. The worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/strong-nfp-data-surprises-markets-lifts-usdollar
🇬🇧 UK Prime Minister, Keith Starmer, resists calls for him to resign after more supporters and cabinet members resign.
🏛️ UK political experts advise that the PM was very close to resigning despite the Prime Minister's speech. UK Bonds and the GBP come under pressure from political instability.
📈 The global stock market rebounds and forms a 90% correction, but the bullish correction is facing a test on Tuesday.
🇺🇸 US stock direction hinges on upcoming US data, as inflation and jobs figures will shape Fed rate expectations, with markets favouring falling inflation and stable employment.
📊 Forecasts point to steady labour and cooling inflation, with NFP expected at +66K, unemployment at 4.4%, and CPI projected to fall to 2.5%. If inflation falls to 2.5%, it would be the lowest in 8-months and prompt a more dovish Fed.
⚠️ Goldman Sachs’ closely watched “Panic Index” has surged to near so-called “max fear” levels, underscoring a sharp rise in investor anxiety across US equity markets. The spike reflects growing concern that the recent bout of volatility may not be over.
💼 Cisco and McDonald’s are due to announce their quarterly earnings report tomorrow. In 2026, Cisco stocks have risen 14% while McDonald's has risen 7%. The two companies make up almost 1% of the total S&P 500.
🇯🇵 The NIKKEI 225 regains momentum after a short-lived retracement. Investors continue to increase exposure to Japanese stocks, and economists expect growth-based economic policies.
🥇 Gold futures surged above $5,000, driven by a weakening US Dollar and heightened fiscal/geopolitical uncertainty. This reflects growing demand for traditional safe havens amid global risk concerns.
💱 The best performing currency of the day is again the Japanese Yen, while the worst performing currencies are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar.
🇫🇷 Macron can now block far-right influence over France’s central bank, as the early resignation of the Bank of France chief lets him appoint a replacement before Marine Le Pen’s party potentially gains power after next year’s election.
Full Article > https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/sp500-rebounds-ai-stocks-gains-ahead-us-economic-data
🏛️ Japan’s ruling party won 316 of 465 lower-house seats on its own, giving it more than a two-thirds supermajority. The LDP, with its coalition partner, will now control over 350 seats (75% of the house). That result is the largest single-party majority since the LDP’s founding in 1955. The election victory gives the Prime Minister Takaichi a strong mandate to push growth-focused economic policies.
📈 The NIKKEI 225 continues to lead global markets, rising over 16% in 2026 and reaching new all-time highs on strong political and economic developments.
💹 Investors increase their exposure to the NIKKEI 225 due to inflation returning to Japan after many years and the expected expansionary fiscal policy.
💴 Japanese yen leads currency gains following the election, as market sentiment improves and investors anticipate higher inflation from potential expansionary policies. Investors expect the Bank of Japan to continue hiking in 2026.
📉 The worst-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the British Pound. The decline in the GBP is primarily due to political instability.
⚠️ Morgan McSweeney, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, has resigned amid intense political pressure after his role in advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador regardless of his known connections with Jeffrey Epstein.
🪙 Gold saw a strong rebound on Friday after the price remained under pressure following a sudden decline at the end of January. The price continues to rise on Monday, but Silver continues to see stronger bullish price action.
🏦 Members of the Federal Reserve continue to indicate the need for the US inflation rate to fall to 2.00%. Investors remain uncertain as to how the Fed’s policy will change after Warsh takes the reins. Analysts expect US inflation to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%.
📊 The VIX index declines more than 2.00% on Monday, indicating the market may experience a “risk on” appetite for the week.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/japan-record-breaking-election-victory
This Week’s Live Trading Webinars! ⚡️
Kick off Tuesday with Forex 101: Your First Steps in Currency Trading, cover currency essentials, basic risk management, and how to start with confidence. Then on Wednesday, join The Truth About Consistency in Trading to learn how traders and institutions approach risk and setups, and why consistency isn’t just strategy.
Build a strong foundation and develop better trading habits.
Reserve your spot for Tuesday and Wednesday
📉 Tech Stocks Under Pressure
Global markets stayed weak as tech shares extended their slide. AI-related stocks, particularly those in the chip and software sectors, continue to face selling pressure as traders question high valuations following a strong rally.
🥇 Gold & Silver Turn Volatile
Precious metals moved sharply lower as traders took profits after recent highs. Thin liquidity and fast price moves increased volatility, keeping risk sentiment fragile.
💱 Big Day for Central Banks
Today’s focus is on two major central banks, the ECB and the Bank of England. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, but traders will watch closely for hints on future policy moves. The US dollar remains firm, while the yen stays under pressure.
🪙 Crypto Under Pressure
Bitcoin extended its pullback as risk appetite cooled, showing continued sensitivity to moves in equities and the US dollar.
👀 What to Watch Next
Central bank statements, earnings updates, and key technical levels across major assets will likely drive today’s price action.
Let’s find out! 👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/big-day-for-central-banks-as-tech-stocks-slide-and-precious-metals-turn-volatile
Today's Analysis 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/market-highlights-aud-silver-nasdaq-gains
Title: 2026 Market Highlights: AUD Leads, Silver Corrects, NASDAQ Gains on Trade
Explore 2026’s market trends with the Australian Dollar as the best-performing currency, Silver’s sharp volatility, and global stocks boosted by the US–India trade deal and upcoming tech earnings.
New week, new market opportunities 🚀
Market-moving events could create fresh opportunities.
📅 See what’s coming up in this week’s calendar, available in here.
💬 What’s your focus this week?
Two live sessions for traders this week! ⚡️
Kick off Tuesday with a live walkthrough of the 15-minute Opening Range Breakout (ORB), a simple, structured way to trade early market momentum. Then on Wednesday, join our beginner-friendly live analysis session and learn how to set up your MT5 charts, indicators, and validate signals step by step.
Sharpen your execution and build better habits.
Reserve your spot for Tuesday and Wednesday
💲Swiss Franc approaches a 15-Year high against US Dollar as investors seek safe-haven assets and limit exposure to the Dollar.
📉 The US Dollar Index is trading at its lowest price since early 2022 and the President’s recent comments are fuelling poor sentiment towards the currency.
🗣️ Overnight, the US President, Donald Trump, told investors that ‘I think the value of the Dollar is great’ and he would not be worried about the decline continuing.
📊 Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index rose from 0.0% to 1.0% and the inflation rate rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. The inflation rate remains unstable and may indicate that monetary policy is not adequately restrictive. The RBA is due to announce its rate decision next week.
⏳ The market awaits the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A decision not to adjust interest rates is almost certain, but investors will be hoping for more guidance on March’s decision.
🪙 Gold’s price continues to increase for a seventh consecutive day and has already risen more than 20% this month. But if the Dollar rises above 96.00, technical indications may point to a retracement.
🥈 All global metals increase in value, with Silver being the best performing asset of the day. Silver increased 8% over the past 24 hours.
📈 All global indices trade higher, except the German DAX. The VIX index has fallen 1.50%, indicating a risk-on sentiment for the day.
💻 ASML stocks rose 7.15% as its AI orders hit more than €13 billion. Other semiconductors also rose as a result, including NVIDIA and AMD stocks.
📰 Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Lam Research are due to make public their quarterly reports tonight after market close. All four stocks trade higher during today’s pre-market session.
💵 The best performing currencies of the day are the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. The Bank of Canada is due to announce its interest rate decision later today.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/trump-embraces-weaker-us-dollar
💵 The US Dollar Index gains some ground as investors take advantage of the lower price. Sentiment towards the Dollar also rises as Durable Goods Orders rise again.
🇦🇺 Australia will release the CPI tomorrow morning, potentially influencing the RBA’s February 3rd interest rate decision. Traders expect volatility around the time of this announcement.
🇪🇺 The EU signs a trade deal with India, which will cut car import tariffs to 40%, then 10% over time. The deal is yet to support the Euro.
🇺🇸 President Trump on Monday said he was increasing tariffs on goods from South Korea, accusing the country of ‘not living up to its deal’ with the US. Tariffs on goods from South Korea will jump back to 25%, from 15%.
💹 Investors are on guard for the risk of another meltdown in Japan’s bond market when the government sells 40-year notes. The Yen declines against all currencies.
🏥 UnitedHealth Group Stocks declined 8.65% after market close on Monday. UnitedHealth will rebate Affordable Care Act marketplace profits to consumers this year.
📈 US Stocks trade higher on Monday and during Tuesday’s Asian session. However, the price declines as the European market opens due to mixed earnings data.
🛳️ The US Navy deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Middle East as tensions with Iran remain elevated. Oil prices are yet to rise in reaction.
🇯🇵 Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this morning warned the Japan‑US alliance could weaken if Tokyo ignored a Taiwan conflict, stressing legal limits on military support. The Nikkei 225 rises on Tuesday and is the day’s best performing index.
⛏️ Global metals decline after seven days of declines, except Gold which continues to rise for an eighth consecutive day.
💻 Investors turn their attention to the Nasdaq as Microsoft, Meta, Lam Research and Tesla are due to release their earnings tomorrow evening. The four companies alone make up more than 20% of the Nasdaq.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/aud-rises-hawkish-rba-gold-prices-economy
📉 Dollar Index hits eight-month low amid tariff threats and speculation of coordinated yen-support intervention.
💹 Yen surges sharply; USDJPY falls to November 2025 lows as intervention signals intensify and snap elections approach.
🗣️ Comments from Katayama and Bessent fuel expectations of continued US-Japan coordination in the currency market, weakening the Dollar.
🌍 Geopolitical tensions, shutdown risk, and gold’s record rally reinforce bearish sentiment toward the US Dollar.
⏳ Funding expires on 30 January, and Congress has not yet passed a full budget or a new stopgap bill. As a result, investors are weighing the risk of another US Shutdown.
💰 On Monday, Gold rose above $5,000 for the first time and 10% over the past six days. A key price driver is US Dollar weakness, a possible US government shutdown and geopolitical tensions.
🥈 All metals rose on Monday with Silver, Platinum and Palladium leading the gains. Silver has so far risen 7.50% during Monday's Asian session.
💵 The US Dollar is the worst performer, while the JPY, CHF, AUD and NZD lead, benefiting from low geopolitical risks and a lower risk sentiment.
🇺🇸 President Trump on Saturday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada over that country's trade deal with China, even though he had previously called the agreement ‘a good thing’.
🏥 United Health Group is due to release its quarterly earnings report early on Tuesday. The stock has risen 5.90% in 2026. Any volatility is likely to significantly impact the Dow Jones due to its exposure.
🤝 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the imminent signing of a historic trade agreement with India. The Euro is yet to benefit due to tensions with the US.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/us-eying-weaker-usd
📈 Markets Overview
Global markets are trading cautiously higher this morning as geopolitical tensions ease and investors regain some confidence after a volatile week.
🇺🇸 US Markets
US stock futures are modestly positive, with Dow futures up 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gain around 0.3%. The move follows President Trump backing away from tariff threats on European imports and softening rhetoric on Greenland.
⚠️ Tech sentiment remains mixed after Intel shares plunged over 10% in extended trading on a weaker Q1 outlook.
🌏 Asia-Pacific
Asian markets are mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.2% after the Bank of Japan held rates unchanged and upgraded its inflation and growth outlook.. The yen weakened initially to ¥158.6 per dollar, keeping expectations of further BoJ tightening alive later this year. However quickly after Yen jumps across the board on suspected intervention
🪙 Gold & Safe Havens
Gold remains near record levels, hovering just below $5,000, as investors continue to hedge against uncertainty. Silver is outperforming, reflecting ongoing demand for defensive assets.
🛢 Oil
Crude prices are higher, with WTI near $60 per barrel and Brent trading above $64, supported by stabilising risk sentiment.
📊 Bonds & Data
US Treasury yields are steady, supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data, including resilient jobless claims and solid consumer spending.
🔍 Market Outlook
Markets are calmer heading into the end of the week, but remain headline-sensitive, with geopolitics, central bank signals, and macro data still driving short-term volatility.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/global-markets-steady-as-geopolitical-tensions-ease-and-investors-regain-confidence
🌍 Risk sentiment improves as geopolitical pressure eases. Markets are stabilising after President Trump paused Greenland-related tariffs, reducing immediate tail risks. Equities rebounded while safe-haven demand cooled, though volatility remains elevated with earnings and macro data in focus.
📈 Asia follows Wall Street higher. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.9%, led by tech stocks, with SoftBank surging 11%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 2%, breaking above the 5,000 level for the first time. Elsewhere, markets were mixed, with Hong Kong and China slightly lower, while Australia, Taiwan and India posted solid gains.
🇺🇸 US futures extend gains after Trump ruled out military action over Greenland and confirmed planned February tariffs will not proceed. Wall Street delivered its best session of 2026, with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all rising around 1.2%, although weekly performance remains negative.
📊 Earnings and data take centre stage. With Intel, Procter & Gamble and GE Aerospace reporting, and US jobless claims due, traders are bracing for short-lived volatility. Recent results show that even earnings beats are generating muted reactions, highlighting valuation sensitivity.
🪙 Commodities and FX: Gold slipped 0.9% as safe-haven demand eased, while oil prices edged higher. US Treasury yields moved lower, the dollar firmed against the yen, and the euro remained largely unchanged.
🔮 Outlook: This looks like a relief rally rather than a full risk-on move. Sentiment has improved, but remains fragile. Expect event-driven price action, with flexibility and risk control more important than strong directional conviction.
Full Article 👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/trader-outlook-risk-sentiment-improves-as-geopolitical-pressure-eases