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HFM, formerly known as HotForex, is an award winning multi asset broker, providing trading services and facilities to both retail and institutional clients. 500+ Markets | Free Account Opening | Fund Security | 27+ Languages
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Join us live as we break down the last employment data before the Fed’s rate decision.
Today’s NFP data are the last figures that may influence the Fed's decision: cut or pause. We will analyse market reactions and discuss what it means for rate expectations, Gold, the US Dollar, and Indices.
Don’t miss this important event!
Watch the full analysis today at 15:20 GMT.
🇨🇦🛢Why the Canadian Dollar Isn’t Rising Despite Surging Oil Prices
The Canadian dollar remains weak despite rising oil prices as geopolitical tensions, US dollar strength, and slowing domestic growth weigh on the currency. Explore what’s driving USDCAD and what traders should watch next.
👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/why-is-the-canadian-dollar-fixed-despite-the-surge-in-oil-prices
🚨 ASIA MELTDOWN – WORST DROP IN A YEAR
Asian stocks just saw their sharpest selloff in nearly 12 months as the Iran war escalates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 4.5%, while South Korea’s Kospi crashed 12.1%, its biggest drop on record. Circuit breakers were triggered. Panic selling dominated desks.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA: FROM AI LEADER TO CRISIS ZONE
AI darlings got crushed! The Kospi was the world’s best performer before this. Now it's ground zero for energy shock fears.
Why? South Korea is highly dependent on oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz, and that chokepoint is effectively disrupted.
🛢 OIL SURGES AGAIN
Brent climbed above $82 after a ~12% two-day spike, the biggest since 2020. Iraq is shutting major oil fields. Saudi storage sites are filling fast. Tanker traffic through Hormuz remains severely disrupted.
President Donald Trump says the US will insure and potentially escort tankers, but markets aren’t fully convinced. Shipping insurance alone could add $5–$15 per barrel.
The war premium is alive and well.
💵 DOLLAR SPIKES – ASIA FEELS IT MOST
The Dollar Index just posted its strongest two-day gain in nearly a year.
Stronger dollar + higher oil = double pressure for Asia:
• More expensive energy imports
• Tighter financial conditions
• Currency weakness
🔥 WHY THIS IS DIFFERENT
This isn’t a tariff headline. This isn’t a Fed tweet.
This is a real energy supply shock with no clear end date.
The old “buy-the-dip” mentality may not work if oil keeps climbing.
📊 WHAT TRADERS ARE WATCHING
Brent holding above $80
Tanker traffic resuming through Hormuz
Dollar momentum continuing
If oil stabilizes → risk assets may bounce.
If oil spikes again → Asia likely faces more downside.
Volatility is back.
👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/asian-markets-plunge-as-iran-war-sparks-energy-shock-fears
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🌟 Gold lags other metals, trading below key resistance at $5,205. However, bullish price movements in other metals potentially may be a clue for traders.
💎 Silver is increasing 3.50%, Palladium 4.45% and Platinum 7%, traders are contemplating whether Gold will also soon follow.
📊 Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI read 1.8%, slightly higher than previous expectations. However, the index still fell from 2.0% to 1.8%. At first glance the release had a positive impact, but the Yen continues to decline similar to previous weeks.
⚠️ Japan’s Finance Minister warned that the weak Yen is a growing economic concern, raising import costs, while the government monitors markets closely. Traders don’t expect government intervention unless the yen hits 159.000.
🏦 Many economists are now expecting the Fed not to cut interest rates at all until the summer. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 31% chance the Fed may not cut until September. Most traders believe the Fed may only cut on one occasion in 2026.
📉 The US weekly unemployment claims read 212,000, lower than expectations and similar to the previous week.
🎬 Netflix drops out of the race to purchase Warner Bros. Netflix stock rises 6% in after hours trading as a result.
💻 NVIDIA stocks continued to decline after its earnings report, ending the day 5.50% lower and pressuring most indices.
🛢️ US demands are too stringent, and the likelihood of Tehran agreeing is minimal. They call for the complete dismantling of nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and the transfer of any remaining uranium to the US. Crude oil prices on Friday rose 1.50%.
💱 The best performing currencies of the day are the Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar. The worst performing continue to be the Japanese Yen and US Dollar.
Full Articles > https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/silver-platinum-surge-golds-long-term-view
📊 Australia’s monthly consumer price index rose 0.4%, double previous projections. Due to the higher CPI reading, the country’s inflation rate remained at 3.8%. Whereas, previously, market expectations were that it would fall to 3.7%.
💵 The Australian Dollar continues to be the best performing currency of the day, rising 0.70% so far, and of the year, up 6.50%.
📈 NASDAQ increased in value on Tuesday and Wednesday as investors turned their attention to NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report. Over the past week NVIDIA stock has risen more than 2%, indicating shareholders are expecting positive earnings.
🧠 NVIDIA’s earnings report after market close is likely to have a vital impact on all indices, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
🇯🇵 Japan’s PM this morning nominated two reflationist academics, Mr Sato and Mr Asada, to join the Bank of Japan board. Markets saw this as a dovish indication due to the well-known nature of the two individuals.
🏦 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Mrs Collins said interest rates are likely to stay unchanged ‘for some time’ as recent economic data shows an improvement in the labour market.
🥇 All metals rose on Wednesday after Trump’s latest speech to Congress. Platinum and Silver witnessed the strongest gains but Gold also rose 0.59%.
🇬🇧 The UK Trade Minister says that the recently negotiated Economic Prosperity Deal with the US remains intact despite Washington’s new 10% global tariff.
🇪🇺 There’s growing discussion that Lagarde may step down earlier than planned, potentially allowing political influence over succession decisions.
📉 The worst performing currency of the day so far is the Japanese Yen and US Dollar.
Full Article - https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/nasdaq-nvidia-earnings-currency-volatility
The markets are gearing up for another active week 🚀
Key data could drive volatility and set the tone in the days ahead.
📅Explore the full economic calendar!
Ready for the fireworks? The PCE Inflation report is hitting the wires at 13:30 GMT, followed by the US PMI at 14:45 GMT. We are watching the USDIndex, S&P500, and Gold for immediate reactions.
Don't trade this alone! Join us for real-time data, expert commentary, and technical levels to watch.
Watch the full analysis today at 13:00 GMT.
🌍 Geopolitical Risk Rising
Tensions between the United States and Iran are keeping traders cautious ahead of the weekend.
🛢Oil jumped on reports that military confrontation is becoming more likely. Brent holds above $70 and WTI above $65, as markets price potential supply disruption from the Middle East.
📊 US Jobless Claims in Focus
Today’s key release is weekly jobless claims (225K expected vs 227K prior). The labour market has been stabilising, which keeps the bar high for Fed rate cuts. Unless we see a notable surprise, the reaction may be limited , but sharp deviations could move USD and yields.
🏦 Fed Voices & Rate Path
Recent Fed minutes revealed divisions over rate cuts. Several officials speak today, and any hawkish tone could support the dollar, especially with oil prices adding inflation risk back into the picture.
📈 Tech Supporting Equities
US futures are steady after gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, driven by mega-cap tech strength. Nvidia and Meta helped lift sentiment as AI momentum continues to dominate the narrative.
🛢 Commodities & Safe Havens
Oil leads the move higher, gold is edging up, while Bitcoin slipped slightly , suggesting markets are cautious but not in panic mode.
⚠️ Into the Weekend
Headline risk remains elevated. Traders may prefer controlled exposure as geopolitics, Fed expectations, and energy prices collide.
👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/markets-walk-a-tightrope-strong-data-meets-rising-geopolitical-risk
Gold just slipped below $5,000. AI disruption is reshaping equity flows. Emerging market currencies are showing record-low volatility. But beneath the surface, something bigger is developing.
With Lunar New Year thinning liquidity and key US inflation data ahead, markets are entering a critical recalibration phase. In this article, we break down what’s really driving gold, equities, and FX, and where the next major opportunity could emerge.
👉 Full breakdown available in our latest article. https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/gold-pulls-back-asia-trades-lightly-and-ai-volatility-lingers-markets-recalibrate-ahead-of-key-us-data
New week. Fresh data. New opportunities 🚀
Key releases could set the pace across global markets.
📅 Get the full picture with our weekly calendar.
💬 What’s your strategy for the week ahead?
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📊 US jobs data strongly beat expectations, with NFP at +130K, higher wages, and lower unemployment, signalling a resilient labour market.
💵 The US Job added on the NFP data reads more than double the 6-month average, boosting the US Dollar after declining for 3 consecutive days. Sentiment towards the US economy significantly improves.
🏦 Fed rate cut expectations declined, with markets now pricing a 94% probability of a pause in March and only one 25bps cut in 2026.
🗣️ According to the former senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tim Mahedy, told journalists, “It absolutely complicates the argument for lower rates.”. “The January data were really strong”.
🇬🇧 The UK’s GDP figures for January read 0.1% as per expectations and remain lower than the previous month. The Prelim GDP for the upcoming release is 0.1%, slightly lower than the previous projections.
🇺🇸 6 Republicans cross party lines to offer a rare rebuke of Trump's tariffs on Canada. Trump openly threatened lawmakers who crossed him in a Truth Social post, writing that Republicans who oppose tariffs "will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time."
📈 Debt continues to rise, according to the latest data from the Fed Bank of NY. The latest report on household debt and credit shows that total debt increased by $191 billion to a new high.
🟡 Gold prices slightly weakened after the release of the new NFP Change. However, the price of Gold continues to follow range-bound wave patterns.
💱 The best performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar. The worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/strong-nfp-data-surprises-markets-lifts-usdollar
🛢️ Strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure pushed oil near $120 per barrel, the highest level in almost four years. Crude Oil currently trades 14% higher.
🚢 The Strait of Hormuz closure is a major concern. About 20% of global oil supply could be disrupted, heavily affecting energy markets.
🏛️ The G7 nations advised that they will release oil reserves to boost market supply. However, most economists advise that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, this move would not be enough to retain confidence.
📉 All global indices witnessed a sharp decline with the Nikkei 225 and Euro Stoxx 50 seeing the strongest declines. US indices fell close to a five-month low.
⚠️ Investors continue to increase their exposure to safe haven assets as the risk appetite of investors remains low. The VIX (Fear Index) rose a further 8% on Monday, indicating a risk-off sentiment.
💵 One of the best-performing safe-haven assets is the US Dollar as investors also expect the Federal Reserve not to cut rates at all in 2026.
📊 On Friday, the US made public its latest NFP data for February. Jobs fell by 92,000, while economists expected an increase of 58,000. In January, job growth was 126,000, revised down from 130,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%.
📈 The assets witnessing the strongest increases on Monday are energy products, followed by soft commodities and then the US Dollar.
🥇 Gold trades slightly lower on Monday as the US Dollar increases in value, but generally keeps to its established price range.
🥈 Silver is also decreasing in value like Gold, but is witnessing a smaller decline indicating Gold potentially has the ability to retrace upwards to $5,177.
🏦 Analysts now expect the European Central Bank to increase interest rates by 0.25% on two occasions in 2026.
💱 The best performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. The worst performing are the Euro, Pound and Australian Dollar.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/attacks-irans-oil-facilities-panic-across-markets
⚡️ Markets Stabilize After Volatile Week
Global markets are attempting to recover after a week of sharp volatility driven by the escalating Israel–Iran conflict. European and US futures are pointing higher, while Asian equities managed to erase earlier losses.
🛢 Oil in Focus as Hormuz Traffic Disrupts Supply
Energy markets remain the key driver. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global seaborne oil, has nearly halted, keeping traders on edge. Brent crude briefly surged to its highest level since 2024 before easing slightly.
🥇 Safe Havens Gain Ground
Rising geopolitical risk boosted demand for defensive assets. Gold and silver moved higher, as investors sought protection amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
💵 Dollar Holds Safe-Haven Status
The US dollar remains firm, supported by geopolitical demand and expectations that rising energy prices could fuel inflation pressures globally.
📊 Stocks Whipsawed by War Headlines
Equities experienced major swings this week. Some markets saw record drops followed by strong rebounds as traders reacted to each new headline from the Middle East.
📉 Focus Shifts to US Jobs Data
Traders are now turning their attention to the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could shape expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially as higher oil prices increase the risk of renewed inflation pressures.
⚠️ Key Risk for Markets
If oil supply disruptions persist and the conflict drags on, analysts warn that crude could move toward $100, potentially creating a fresh inflation shock for the global economy
🇪🇺🇯🇵 EURJPY Under Pressure as Yen Gains Safe-Haven Demand
EURJPY faces volatility as geopolitical tensions boost the safe-haven yen while rising inflation pressures the ECB’s policy outlook. The global currency market today witnessed significant turmoil in the EURJPY pair. Trading above 182.00, the pair recorded a daily declin
👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/eurjpy-dynamics-among-geopolitical-pressures-and-global-inflation-rise
🌍 Markets Rebound but Risks Remain
Global markets attempted to recover after the selloff triggered by escalating tensions involving the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and military operations by the United States Armed Forces and Israel Defense Forces. However, rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty are keeping investors cautious.
📈 Equities Try to Stabilize
Asian stocks rebounded strongly, with South Korea surging nearly 10% and Japan posting solid gains after Wall Street’s rally helped ease inflation concerns. Still, futures suggest European and US markets may open lower, highlighting fragile sentiment.
💵 Dollar Gains Safe-Haven Demand
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for a third session as investors moved toward safer assets while monitoring developments in the Middle East.
🛢 Oil Remains the Key Driver
Brent Crude Oil climbed toward $85, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $78 as disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over global supply.
📉 Bond Yields Climb
The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note rose to around 4.13%, reflecting fears that higher oil prices could push inflation higher and delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
₿ Crypto Volatility Returns
Bitcoin briefly topped $73,000 before pulling back, as traders remain cautious despite strong inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs.
💵 Dollar Strength Returns, But For a Different Reason
The dollar strengthened, not purely as a safe haven, but due to relative energy dynamics. The U.S. remains a net energy exporter, meaning higher oil prices hurt Europe and Asia more than the U.S.
🛢 Oil Surge Drives Market Moves
Brent crude jumped nearly 10% intraday before stabilising around $77–78. While not yet at a crisis level, traders are closely monitoring whether prices push toward $90–100, which could significantly impact global growth.
🇯🇵 Yen Weakens Despite Risk Environment
The Nikkei 225 fell over 2% as Japan’s heavy energy import dependence weighs on sentiment. The yen failed to attract safe-haven flows, highlighting how energy exposure is dominating FX reactions.
🇪🇺 European Gas Prices Spike
European benchmark gas prices surged to their highest level in over a year. The euro slipped to a one-month low as traders priced in potential growth risks from prolonged supply disruptions.
📈 US Equities Show Resilience
The S&P 500 initially dropped more than 1% but recovered to close nearly flat. Energy and defence stocks outperformed: Exxon Mobil gained, while Northrop Grumman rallied strongly.
🔥 Inflation Concerns Back in Focus
With US core inflation still above 3%, higher oil prices could keep the Federal Reserve cautious. Traders are reassessing expectations for rate cuts if energy inflation persists.
🤝 US–China Talks Remain in Play
Officials are preparing for discussions ahead of a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Progress on trade or tariffs could help stabilise global risk sentiment.
🎯 What Traders Are Watching Now
• Brent crude above $85–90
• Any confirmed disruption in Hormuz shipping
• Continued dollar strength vs EUR & JPY
• Rising inflation expectations
Markets are pricing energy risk, not systemic collapse.
Oil is leading. FX and equities are reacting.
Full Article > https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/oil-the-dollar-and-geopolitical-shockwaves-what-markets-are-really-pricing
🌍 Geopolitical Risk Back in Focus
Escalating tensions between the US and Iran are shaking global markets. The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint, is effectively disrupted, raising fears of prolonged supply issues. This is no longer just a headline risk, it’s an inflation risk.
🛢 Oil is leading global price action.
Brent Crude Futures jumped sharply, at one point surging over 10% before easing slightly. Around 20% of global oil flows pass through Hormuz. If disruptions continue, oil could remain elevated, keeping inflation pressure alive.
📉 Stocks Under Pressure
Asian equities dropped sharply while US futures point lower.
Markets were already fragile due to:
• High valuations
• AI-related uncertainty
• Credit market concerns
Now geopolitics adds another layer of risk.
🥇 Gold Gains as Safe Haven
Gold Futures moved higher as investors seek protection against escalation and inflation. Classic defensive positioning.
💵 USD & Bonds – A Tug of War
The US dollar strengthened modestly on safe-haven demand.
But bond markets face a dilemma:
• Risk-off → lower yields
• Higher oil → higher inflation → higher yields
This makes rate expectations more complicated
📊 What Traders Should Watch
• Oil stability above key levels
• Headlines on US–Iran negotiations
• Strait of Hormuz developments
• Inflation expectations
• Volatility expansion
If oil cools → markets may stabilize.
If oil accelerates → inflation becomes the dominant narrative again.
Stay disciplined. This is a headline-driven environment.
📊 NVIDIA beat earnings expectations with strong AI-driven revenue growth. The company’s sales surged from $57 billion to more than $68 billion. In addition to the company’s sales, Earnings Per Share rose to $1.62 again beating analysts’ previous expectations.
💡 CEO Jensen Huang argued that customers are making money from their newly acquired computing power and will keep investing at elevated levels. NVIDIA stock saw only a slight rise.
📈 The NASDAQ on Wednesday rose to a 3-week high, but lost momentum after the release of NVIDIA’s earnings report. This morning, the price is forming a retracement, but maintains short-term buy signals.
⚠️ Investors continue to remain cautious about an AI-bubble and AI products having a domino effect on the economy. Another concern for investors is the Iran-US negotiations.
🌍 On February 19, Trump gave Iran 15 days for a nuclear deal, warning of possible strikes; markets remained cautious amid tensions and potential partial concessions. Satellite images reportedly show Iran is readying for a US attack.
💴 The Japanese yen gained this morning but remains weak amid expectations of limited rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Japan will announce its latest inflation data tomorrow morning.
🏦 The Japanese government added Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to the Bank of Japan committee, potentially complicating a ‘hawkish’ policy stance.
📉 The Japanese government expects its interest payments on outstanding debt to roughly double over the next four years as the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate hikes push up borrowing costs.
🇦🇺 The Australian Dollar is giving up recent gains after yesterday’s higher inflation data. However, the currency remains the year's best performing currency.
🛠️ All Metals declined as the European trading session gets under way. The US Dollar Index will remain key for the metals market.
💵 The US Dollar Index moves sideways but performs better than most competitors during this morning’s session. Investors await the release of the US weekly unemployment claims and Producer Price Index.
🇬🇧 The British pound edged slightly higher versus the dollar and euro, but markets remain cautious as uncertainty over UK political risk and possible Bank of England rate cuts weighs on sentiment.
Full Article > https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/strong-tech-earnings-global-tensions-nvidia
💴 The Japanese Yen declined significantly after the Prime Minister showed apprehension in her latest meeting with the Governor of the Bank of Japan.
🛃 Donald Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect, as part of a White House effort to preserve the president’s trade agenda after the Supreme Court struck down his original sweeping duties.
💵 The US Dollar recovers as investors turn their attention to Trump's upcoming State of the Union Speech which will take place at 02:00 tomorrow morning. Traders are expecting volatility and economists will be closely monitoring for comments on policy and trade.
📉 Friday’s PMI indexes were higher than the 50.00 level, meaning economists continue to believe the economy will continue to grow, but they read significantly lower than expectations. Friday also saw US Gross Domestic Product fall from 3% to 1.4%, weaker than expectations.
📈 The Core PCE Price Index rose from 2.8% to 3.00%, the highest in threeyears. Due to the higher inflation reading, analysts expect the Fed to make no adjustments.
🇪🇺 European PMI data beats analysts’ expectations, as do UK PMI readings. However, both the Pound and Euro continue to struggle against the US Dollar.
💻 Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is seen as a major catalyst for tech sector direction, especially given AI-related sentiment swings.
🤖 According to Wall Street, market pricing continues to indicate a poor sentiment towards AI and its domino effect on the rest of the economy.
🇬🇧 The UK announced £20 million in new funding to repair Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and support humanitarian and justice efforts. In addition, the UK increased its sanctions against Russia.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/gold-conflict-trend-tariffs-monetary-policy
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🔥 Oil at 6-Month High!
🛢 Oil Surge: Brent pushed above $72 after US–Iran tensions escalated. Military buildup in the Middle East is adding a fresh risk premium to crude prices. Energy stocks benefited.
📉 Wall Street Slips: S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed lower as AI disruption concerns continue to pressure tech and private credit-linked names. Even strong earnings couldn’t save some stocks.
💵 Dollar Strengthens: The USD is heading for its strongest week in months as traders scale back Fed rate-cut expectations and seek safe-haven exposure.
🥇 Gold & Silver Up: Metals gained as geopolitical tensions increased.
⚠️ What traders are watching next:
• US inflation signals
• Any update on Iran deal
• Fed rate expectations
• Oil price momentum
Risk appetite is clearly fragile.
Stay sharp. Volatility is back on the radar.
👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/brent-above-72-markets-react-to-iran-tensions-fed-uncertainty-and-ai-risks
📉 US Tech Slide Continues as AI Fears Resurface
Markets reopened after the Presidents’ Day holiday with a cautious tone , and tech stocks are back under pressure.
🔹 Nasdaq futures -0.8%
🔹 S&P 500 futures -0.4%
🔹 10Y Treasury yield slips to 4.02%
🔹 Yen strengthens (risk-off signal)
💡 What’s driving the move?
🤖 AI uncertainty: Investors are questioning whether AI will boost profits… or replace entire business models. Volatility is rising across software and tech names.
🌍 Geopolitical tension: Iran’s naval drills ahead of renewed US talks are keeping traders cautious. Energy markets remain sensitive to headlines.
🏦 Fed outlook unclear: After recent inflation data, expectations for rate cuts remain mixed. Traders now look ahead to Fed speakers and meeting minutes.
🥇 Gold & silver pull back: Profit-taking after recent rallies.
₿ Bitcoin trades near $68K: Consolidation continues.
📊 Earnings season remains solid (around 13% growth), but sentiment is fragile.
For now, markets are hedging, not panicking.
⚠️ Expect volatility to remain elevated as AI disruption, rate expectations, and geopolitics continue to collide.
👉https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/market-wrap-tech-weakness-extends-as-ai-fears-and-geopolitics-weigh-on-sentiment
🥇 Gold Pulls Back Below $5,000
Profit-taking kicks in as thin Lunar New Year liquidity weighs on metals. Despite today’s drop, gold remains up 70% YoY and silver 140% — volatility is high, but the broader trend is still intact.
🤖 AI Volatility Shakes Wall Street
Software and tech stocks continue to feel pressure as investors reassess AI disruption risks. Markets stabilized late last week, but uncertainty remains elevated.
🌏 Asia Trades Lightly
China, South Korea, and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year. Reduced liquidity led to mixed performance across the region, with Japan pressured by weak GDP data.
💱 Emerging Market Currencies Stay Strong
EM FX volatility is near multi-decade lows. A softer dollar and carry trade flows continue supporting developing-market assets.
📊 What’s Next? US Inflation Data
All eyes now turn to the upcoming PCE report. With Fed rate-cut expectations in focus, this could be the next major catalyst.
Join our live CPI release analysis as we react in real time to the inflation numbers and explain how they impact market volatility, tradable assets, and potential trading opportunities.
Watch the full analysis today at 13:30 GMT.
🌎 Global markets fell on Thursday on fears that rapid AI adoption could disrupt multiple sectors. Fears arise after the release of multiple AI products throughout the week. Asian stocks slightly improve on Friday, but US stocks continue to fall.
🤖 According to economists, AI products may automate tasks, hurt traditional revenue streams, and increase unemployment risks.
📉 The stock market saw the largest decline within a week and gave up all of 2026’s gains so far. Today’s price movement is likely to also depend on this afternoon’s CPI release.
📊 Analysts expect inflation to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%, positive for investor sentiment and the stock market. However, if inflation does not decline to this level, investors will fear a prolonged pause, and this can pressure stocks further.
💻 Companies like Cisco Systems warned of higher expenses and lower profitability, which intensified selling in tech and other growth stocks. Cisco's stock fell 12% after releasing its latest earnings report.
🛡️ Traders show a risk-off appetite and move out of equities and into safer assets, particularly bonds, ahead of Friday’s CPI inflation report.
🛒 Defensive stocks such as Walmart were one of the few stocks on Thursday to increase in value. 75% of the NASDAQ declined on Thursday.
💵 The best performing currency of the day is the US Dollar, which is finding support from demand for Treasuries. The worst-performing currencies of the day are the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen.
🪙 Gold also witnessed a strong decline as investor sentiment soured, as investors preferred to opt for bonds as their safe haven asset. However, Gold has steadily risen after this sudden selloff.
🇨🇭 Switzerland again sees inflation figures indicate deflation, with the monthly figures showing a decline of 0.1%. However, the lower inflation rate does not negatively affect the CHF.
⚖️ A positive factor for the global economy is that President Trump is contemplating whether to slightly lower tariffs on certain metals. These tariffs were put in place last summer, but recent reports indicate these tariffs may be reduced.
🛢️ The main driver of Oil’s decline remains geopolitical. On February 12th, President Trump said Iran nuclear talks could last a month, ruling out an immediate strike. The stronger Dollar also pressures Oil demand.
Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/ai-fears-weigh-global-stocks-ahead-todays-cpi
🟡 Gold rebounded after a sharp drop, recovering 58% of its 21% decline, but lost momentum in the past 24-hours. All investors are turning their attention to today’s NFP data.
💵 The US Dollar is weakening, but Gold’s rise has been relatively modest despite the typical inverse correlation. Traders are considering whether the price reaction will be delayed.
⚒️ All metals increase in value on Wednesday, but price performance will depend on this afternoon's employment data. Analysts advise that the price of metals may rise if the US and Iran do not come to a nuclear agreement.
📈 According to the Chicago exchange, the possibility of an interest rate cut in March has risen from 9% to 21%.
💹 The best performing currencies of the day are the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar. The worst-performing currencies are the US Dollar and Euro.
📉 National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tells the market to expect weaker employment data and “not to panic”.
🇪🇺 European Indices decline despite global indices trading higher on Wednesday. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, expects eurozone inflation to dip below 2% this year before stabilising, a view shared by German Federal Bank President Joachim Nagel, who says monetary policy is optimal.
🏛️ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for simplifying regulations and deepening the EU’s single market to boost competitiveness against the US and China.
🔹 80% of the S&P 500’s components increased in value during Wednesday’s pre-trading hours and also found support from the VIX Index declining.
🇺🇦 Ukraine plans spring elections: Ukraine is preparing presidential elections and a peace-deal referendum by mid‑May under external pressure, marking a major political shift amid ongoing conflict.
🛢️ Oil prices are rising as markets monitor US-Iran nuclear talks, which could impact supply. Without a deal, Strait of Hormuz restrictions might cut output to 20M barrels/day. The US warned American vessels to avoid Iran’s waters amid suspicious activity.
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