Market News - Stocks Sink; Oil Jumps as Middle East Heats Up
🛑 Israel launched a strike on Iran, according to two US officials, but the Islamic Republic’s semi-official Tasnim news agency denied the reports and said the Isfahan nuclear facility was safe
📉 Asian shares and bond yields sank this morning, with US stock futures pointing 1% lower
📉 Japan's Nikkei saw declines of 2.4% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.2%
🛡️ Haven assets rose amidst heightened tensions, with oil surging by 2% to $85.45 and gold briefly surpassing $2417 before retracing gains.
💲USD climbed to a multi-month high
📍 Bitcoin dropped by as much as 6.2% to $59,590.74 before recovering slightly to trade about 2.7% lower at $61,842
🎬 Netflix reported strong subscriber gains but delivered a disappointing Q2 revenue forecast
🖥️ Chip-sector stocks suffered from concerns over prolonged tight monetary policy and disappointment over TSMC unchanged capital spending plans, with the stock falling by as much as 6.6%.
Market News - Appetite for risk-taking remains weak
💼 Fed Chair Powell's slightly more hawkish tone added to recent sell-off, pushing out expectations for rate cuts.
🇪🇺ECB moving toward rate cuts if no major shocks, according to Lagarde.
🇬🇧 UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected, adding to arguments against rate cuts at BoE.
🇨🇦 Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, possibly leading to a rate cut at the next BoC meeting.
🌐 IMF revises global growth forecast for 2024 upward, citing easing inflation.
💴 USDJPY rises on expectations of BoJ accommodation and market challenges to MoF intervention.
🛢️ USOIL slips to $84.20 per barrel, while Gold reaches a new record closing high of $2389.11 amid geopolitical risks.
📈 Wall Street closes mixed, with the Dow up 0.17% and the S&P500 and NASDAQ down -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively.
🌏 Asian stock markets mostly correct, with Japanese bourses down -1.3% & Chinese bourses rallying 1.4%.
The week starts with US Retail Sales in focus after the big downward revisions seen in February’s levels resulted in a downshift in Fed rate cut expectations.
Don't miss out on valuable insights and expert commentary!
Be prepared for the trading week ahead!📅
Check below for a preview of the biggest upcoming events, then visit the Economic Calendar for more information.
Market brief – 12/04/2024 - Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?
Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. Annual PPI rose to 2.1% and Core PPI rose to 2.4%. 📈
NASDAQ and S&P500 end the day higher, but Dow Jones continues to struggle. Indicators point to an upward trend, but a retracement to $18,165 remains possible. 📈💼
25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher, a clear indication of tech sector sentiment and reassurance for traders about the price movement. 📊💻
This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock, and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. 💰🏦
Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. Investors continue to predict an ECB rate cut in June 2024. 💶📉
Market Brief – 11/04/2024 - Inflation Pushes Stocks Down!
US inflation again climbs at a faster pace than previously thought. The inflation rate rises to 3.5%, a 6-month high. Higher inflation and bond yields continue to pressure the stock market. 💸
The FedWatch Tool reduces the possibility of a rate hike from 56% to 18% for June 2024. The highest possibility based on the FedWatch Tool is a cut in September 2024. 📉
The US Dollar Index rises to a five-month high, while stocks trade lower in both the US and Europe. The Dow Jones continues to be the worst performing stock. 📈
Of the USA30’s 30 components only 8 managed to retain their value while the remaining 22 stocks declined. Home Depot, Intel and Goldman Sachs saw the largest decline. 💼
The Euro is declining during this morning’s session as we approach today’s ECB’s Rate Decision.
Of a survey of 62 leading economists, only 1 predicts a rate cut this afternoon. Most economists believe the ECB will look to cut in June 2024. 💼
Autochartist alerts! 📈🔔
Boost your trading strategy with real-time insights. Identify market trends, make informed decisions, and stay ahead of the curve. 🚀
Elevate your trading experience now!
Market Brief - Gold Renews Its All-Time Highs, But Oscillators Point to Caution!
US indices underperform compared to global stocks as investors await the latest US inflation data. European Stocks decline on Tuesday indicating a weaker sentiment towards equities. 📉
Oil is trading almost 22% higher in 2024 applying upward pressure on inflation and triggering a more cautious approach to tomorrow’s CPI. ⛽️💹
USD declines and Gold rises in value despite the possibility of a more hawkish Fed. 💵📉📈
Head of Dallas Fed (FRB), Mrs. Logan, advises it’s too early to think about lowering interest rates since the danger of inflation stabilizing above the target level remains. 👩💼🏦
According to Friday’s report from the US Commodity Futures Commission, the number of speculative positions for “sellers” remains weak. 📊
Momentum indicators signal an upward price movement for Gold, but oscillators indicate an overbought price. ⚙️📈📉
ECB is expected to announce first interest rate cut for the upcoming months. 🏦🔜
Tune in to our live stream as our market analyst Andria dissects the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data, providing market impact assessments. Don't miss out on crucial insights!
Join us for this live session!
Market News - USD continues to decline; stock markets mixed
👉Powell added nothing new to the outlook, keeping the door open for several rate cuts this year, though Bostic favours just 1 easing.
🏦Fed funds futures: 50-50 for a June cut, with July showing about a 95% probability for the first cut.
📉Swiss inflation drops justifying SNB decision to cut rates.
🇺🇸ECB asserts it won’t rely on the Fed to determine when to start reducing interest rates. However, US economic trends often swiftly affect other regions.
🌎Stock markets traded mixed across Asia. EU bourses are in the red, US futures are higher, as markets continue to evaluate rate outlooks and growth prospects.
💲USDIndex below 104. Yen consolidates as investors awaited cues from BOJ.
🪙Gold remained stable after reaching new ATH at $2,300.
🛢USOIL appeared ready for 5th consecutive day of increases.
📈Copper rose to highest since Jan 2023, driven by increasing supply risks & indications of heightened demand.
Market Recap - Inflation: Will be back?
🧳Treasuries were hit by stronger than expected ISM data & yields climbed sharply in a bear steepener
ISM data indicates US economy continues to display strength despite elevated interest rates. This bodes well for the stock market, as it has the potential to fuel profit growth for businesses. However, it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures
👉Today, European stock futures are slightly higher in early trade, with FTSE 100 outperforming
💲USDIndex climbed back over 105, underpinned by hotter inflation data & resilient growth
🪙Gold managed to hit a fresh peak at $2251.44 per ounce & a second close over $2200
🛢USOIL breached 61.8% Fib since September downleg, at $84.14. (Rising ME geopolitical risks & tighter supply from Mexico helping to buoy prices)
🪙Bitcoin drifted back to $67k amid cooling demand for dedicated US ETFs and ebbing bets on looser Fed policy. - 10% down since mid-March $73,798 highs
It’s the first week of Q2, and as always a new month brings the latest NFP!📅
Find out what else is in store and then check the Economic Calendar on our website for more details!
Michalis from our Market Analysis team will analyze the market live on MT5 during this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index release! How will this month’s last inflation release 📉 affect some of our most traded assets influencing Gold 💰 and the NASDAQ? 📈
Join us for this live session!
Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital 🕗📉
US Dollar Index rises to 1-mth high. USD value will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment & pending home sales 💵📈
EURUSD is witnessing substantially lower spreads this morning and continues to see “sell” signals from technical analysis 📉💶
USD & index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index (analysts expect 0.3%). A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks & support USD 💵📊
Economists advise ECB will struggle to avoid adjusting rates if the Fed decide to delay their first cut 📉🏦
Strong declines in NVIDIA & Netflix stocks pressured NASDAQ on Wednesday though buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price 📉💻💰
If today’s US economic data is positive the stock market can potentially witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing 📈📊👍
Market Recap - Yen on Intervention watch
🇪🇺European stock futures lower ahead of ESI economic confidence reading & Easter holiday weekend.
🌎US futures in demand after a mixed close across Asia. China bourses underperformed.
🇨🇳Data showed China industrial profits jumped 10.2% in first 2 months of 2024, but signs of an ongoing recovery mean a lower chance of further stimulus. China officials also seem to have again tightened their grip on the currency.
🇯🇵Japan officials have engaged in some verbal intervention, but Yen still hit a 34 yr low against USD.
💲USDIndex recovered to close slightly firmer at 104.10, a 4th straight close over 104.
🧈Gold extended gains as focus shifts to Friday's key US PCE numbers. Bullion is currently at $2179 after breaching $2200.
👉Geopolitical risk, central bank buying, bond rally and rate cut expectations solidifying, all added to Gold strength.
💼 Technical buying, bargain hunting & risk aversion helped Treasuries rally, pushing yields down from recent 2024 highs.
🌏 Asian stock markets strengthened as the US dollar corrected following comments from Japan's currency chief regarding currency market stability.
📈 US stockpiles expanded to a 10-month high, overshadowing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
🇨🇳 President Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel & aluminum.
💲 The USDIndex stumbled to 105.66.
📉 USDJPY lows retested the 154 bottom, with no intervention yet.
🛢️ USOIL slumped by 3% near $82 as US crude inventories rose, while gold strengthened to $2378.44.
📉 Wall Street closed in the red, with NASDAQ down -1.15%, S&P500 -0.58%, and Dow -0.12%.
🇯🇵 The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher.
📈 EU & US futures are finding buyers.
💻 A gauge of global chip stocks and Nvidia Corp. both fell into technical correction.
🖥️ TMSC reported its 1st profit rise in a year, with a 9% net income increase, driven by strong AI demand.
Market News - Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up
📊Stocks and currencies sell off, while USD picks up haven flows
Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post US Retail Sales
📈Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. There's growing anxiety over earnings even after big Goldman Sachs beat
🇨🇳China grew in Q1 however numbers cause sustainability doubts
USD rallied to 106.19, gaining against JPY, despite intervention risk. Yen traders see 160 as next Resistance level
👉Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as USD firmed and yields climbed
🛢USOIL flat at $85 per barrel
Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed VC Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook.
🏦Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America.
Market News - Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally
🌎Markets weigh risk of Middle East retaliation cycle
🇮🇷 Iran's strike on Israel initially spurred haven bid
👉Traders turned cautious amid threats of wider conflict - Iran suggests conclusion; Biden urges restraint in Israel
🇺🇸🇬🇧New US, UK sanctions halt Russian supply deliveries. Aluminum surges 9.4%, nickel up 8.8% on supply concerns
💲USDIndex retreats to 105.70 from highs over 106. Yen strengthens to 153.85 against USD
🛢USOIL settles at $84.50, Gold at $2357.92. Copper subdued at $4.3180
🌎 Asian markets mixed; European, US futures slightly up. Mainland China outperforms on renewed regulatory support
📉 Nikkei slips 1% to 39,114.19. NASDAQ drops -1.62% to 16,175, S&P500 falls -1.46%
📉JPMorgan Chase sinks 6.5% despite stronger Q1 profit
👉Apple shipments expected to decline by 10%.
The ECB has the lowest Interest Rate of the top 3 Central Banks and now the lowest inflation! Will the ECB be able to hold off an adjustment if the Fed delays their first cut? Join Michalis as he looks at the possibilities and provides technical analysis.
Join here
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada and FOMC are on their toes, along with the crucial Inflation reports coming out from China and US. Tune in for Live Commentary and stay ahead of the curve!
Join here
Market Briefing - 10/04/2024
European defence stocks tumble and see largest decline in 18 mths as Goldman Sachs analyst warns the group of stocks is trading above its true value. 📉
The dynamics of order flow and the performance of individual European equities show indications of profit realization, even if a dovish ECB stance has the potential to stimulate demand. Notably, Saab AB shares experienced a significant decline of nearly 10% in a single session.
Meanwhile, the yields of US Treasuries and the US Dollar Index have maintained stability, with investors adopting a cautious stance in anticipation of today's inflation data release.
Analysts expect US inflation to increase to 3.4%, but Core to decline to 3.7%. If inflation surpasses anticipated levels, equities are poised to encounter heightened downward pressure. 📉
Fed Atlanta President Bostic advises he is willing to adjust the outlook to only 1 rate cut in 2024. If inflation reads higher than expected, 3 cuts will become unlikely. 📈
Market Brief - Treasury Yields Climb and Investors Anxiously Await March’s Inflation Reading!
Economists 📈 expect inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, but the monthly incline to be lower than the previous month.
The Dow Jones sees its worst week of 2024 😱 but stocks rebound on positive employment data.
If inflation reads higher than 3.4%, the stock market can come under immense pressure as the Fed is likely to become more hawkish.
A potential hawkish Fed can already be seen from today’s rise in bond yields 💼. The US 10-Year Treasury yields added 0.050% which is known to apply pressure to the stock market.
The US economy added a further 303,000 more employed individuals and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% 👨💼
The US Dollar witnesses “mixed” price movement as investors wait for inflation confirmation and clarity on interest rates 💵
Economists advise the ECB may hold off adjusting interest rates regardless of the lower inflation rate. However, most believe the ECB will opt to cut soon! 📉
Market Update - NFP day!
🌎Stocks fell ahead of today's jobs report, which coupled with rising geopolitical risks and angst over the FOMC rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting haven demand.
📈Treasuries climbed, USD ended near session highs.
🛢USOIL jumped to $86.70 & UKOIL rose above $91 near its highest since Oct. Israel has increased preparations for potential retaliation by Tehran after strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, stoking fears.
👉OPEC kept global markets tight.Note: A direct conflict between Israel & Iran could restrict further Oil supply and hence boost Oil above $100.
💴Yen extended a rally post BOJ commentary. It experienced its most significant surge against the USD in a month, prompting a retreat from levels that traders had anticipated might trigger intervention.
🪙Gold climbed to another record peak over $2304 per ounce.
📉Nikkei drifted by 2% putting it on course for its worst week since Dec 2022- The biggest driver for the dip is technical.
Market Recap - ‘Good News is Bad News’
🇺🇸US rate cut hopes are fading, which is weighing on stock markets.
The rise in February JOLTS, better than expected factory report, and Fed speeches exacerbated the sell off in longer dated Treasuries. Fed members still seeing 3 cuts this year helped trim losses.
🚘Disappointing delivery news from Tesla, and weakness in health and retail, weighed on sentiment.
🇨🇳China's manufacturing activity expanded at fastest pace in 13 mths in March. Yuan declined despite data.
Rising geopolitical risks boosted Gold & Oil.
🧈Gold (+11% this year) surged to a new all-time peak at $2288 even as Fed rate cut bets were pared. Silver hit a 2-yr high.
🛢Oil was up 1.9% at $85.30 per barrel with additional support from expectations for rising demand.
👉Today: EU Inflation & Core, US ADP, US ISM Services, Powell speech, OPEC ministerial meeting which is expected to confirm current output cut targets.
The Chinese economy improves for the first time since September 2023. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, beating expectations. Higher data improves the global risk appetite towards stocks. 📈
Stocks trade higher, what is more, the SNP500, and Dow Jones again renew their all-time highs. The SNP500 outperforms the NASDAQ in 2024🚀
Gold and the US Dollar Index are both on the rise, which is a concern for investors. The market’s price movement gives no clear indication of investor’s risk appetite. 💰
Gold trades 1.26% higher compared to the latest market close and continues to indicate China continues to de-dollarize their resources ahead of US elections. 📈
Apple is expected to confirm the Vision Pro Headset will be made available to global consumers in the summer months. 🍎
The USA500 remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI signalling a higher price. Additionally, delta statistics indicate buyers are controlling the market.
These exclusive events are your chance to meet our team in person! Book now for your chance to connect with your fellow traders, improve your skills and enter a generous lucky draw!
Find out which other countries we’re heading to!
Market Recap - The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long?
The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Good Friday. 🌍 The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple. 📈
The SNP500 is supported by ExxonMobil stocks which rose due to higher energy prices, and Walt Disney which rose almost 10% over the past month. 💼
The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The EURUSD declines for a fourth consecutive day, while the US Dollar Index trades 0.10% higher. 💶💹
The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. 💷 However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. 🔍
Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK's GBP for the last quarter: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% annually. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. 📉
Autochartist alerts! 📈🔔
Boost your trading strategy with real-time insights. Identify market trends, make informed decisions, and stay ahead of the curve. 🚀
Elevate your trading experience now!
Redefine your trading experience with our Swap-Free Trading feature and eliminate the costs of holding trades overnight!
Learn more about swap-free trading with HFM
