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BITCOIN DROPS BELOW $100K FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE
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The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*Hong Kong financial summit from 3 to 5 Nov.; Goldman’s Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted and BlackRock’s Larry & Citadel’s Griffin will speak
*U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 34th day (On Track to be longest in history)
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
*U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
*Palantir Earnings
Tue:
*U.S. court will hear arguments for Sam Bankman-Fried’s appeal (a new trial or reversal of conviction) at 10am ET; If the panel of judges gets deeply involved with the hearing that may be a sign that it is considering whether to order a new trial OR if hearing is short & quick means court affirming the conviction
*Monad timeline/Tokenomics something expected ?
*AMD, Super Micro Earnings
Wed:
*U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding: Treasury (likely keeping guidance unchanged)
*U.S. October ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI
*US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA)
*Robinhood, arm, qualcomm earnings
Thu:
*Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s $1 Trillion pay package
*Samourai Wallet devs Sentencing 11am ET
Fri: China Gold Reserves this week
TBA/Whole Week: Worldwide Oct. services & PMIs, U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown, All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end the shutdown, & Investors will be looking for any evidence of weakness in the labor market or evidence that inflation is slowing to increase Dec. rate cut odds which has dropped to 50% from 99% after powell’s presser.
ICYMI:
⊷ Earnings Beats Almost Across the Board for Mag 7; S&P 500 Reporting Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 4th Straight Quarter, last time the S&P 500 reported 4 consecutive Q's of double-digit earnings growth was Q1 2021 through Q4 2021. Analysts believe S&P 500 will report double-digit earnings growth in 4 of the next 5 Q's (through Q4 2026)
⊷ There will not be "nuclear explosions," energy secretary says on Trump's call to test weapons
⊷ OpenAI May Target $1 Trillion Valuation in IPO; OpenAI is giving Microsoft a 27% ownership stake worth about $135B, It will also continue to receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue; OpenAI Made a $12 Billion Loss Last Quarter.
⊷ On Oct. 28, three new crypto spot ETFs began trading in the U.S. markets, In the coming months, more ETFs are expected to target assets that meet the new generic listing standards, potential candidates could include DOGE, BCH, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT and ADA.
⊷ Bank of Korea May Buy Gold from a medium- to long-term perspective, for the first time in more than a decade
⊷ Buffett’s Berkshire Cash Hits $382 Billion.
⊷ Balancer Hit by $110M Exploit (hacked for 3rd time now); Berachain validators purposefully halt the Berachain network as the core team performs an emergency hard fork to address Balancer V2 related exploits.
⊷ MSFT CEO says "the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's a power. And it's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough, close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. And in fact, that is my problem today, right? It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into": Source in substack
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-2cf
COINBASE 3Q EARNINGS:
*REV. $1.87B, EST. $1.8B
*EPS $1.5, EST. $1.2
*SUBSCRIPTION, SERVICES REV. $747M, EST. $734M
*ADJUSTED EBITDA $801M, EST. $695.7M
*TXN REV. $1.04B VS 764M (Q2'25)
*TRADING VOL $295B VS 237B (Q2'25)
*COINBASE SEES 4Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $710M TO $790M
AMAZON 3Q:
*NET SALES $180.17B, EST. $177.82B
*EPS $1.95, EST. $1.58
*AWS NET SALES $33B, EST. $32.39B
*AMAZON SEES 4Q NET SALES $206.0B TO $213.0B, EST. $208.45B
*AMAZON SEES 4Q OPER INCOME $21.0B TO $26.0B, EST. $23.78B
*AMAZON'S JASSY: AWS GROWING AT PACE WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE 2022
APPLE 4Q:
*EPS $1.85, EST. $1.77
*REV. $102.47B, EST. $102.19B
*SERVICES REV $28.75B, EST. $28.18B
*APPLE 4Q IPHONE REVENUE $49.03B, EST. $49.33B
*GREATER CHINA REV. $14.49B, EST. $16.43B
META LOOKS TO RAISE AT LEAST $25 BILLION FROM BOND SALE
Meta has begun marketing a dollar-bond sale in as many as six parts, ranging from 5 to 40 years in length.
Initial price talk of the 40-year note is for a premium of about 1.4 % points above Treasuries.
INFINITYHEDGE:
CHINA AND THE US TO EXTEND SOME TARIFF EXCLUSIONS
CHINA TO SUSPEND SHIPPING CURBS AGAINST US FOR A YEAR
US TO SUSPEND 50% ENTITY LIST EXPORT CONTROLS FOR A YEAR
CHINA WILL SUSPEND RARE EARTH EXPORT CONTROLS AND OTHER MEASURES ANNOUNCED ON OCT. 9 FOR ONE YEAR
CHINA: US WILL SUSPEND SECTION 301 INVESTIGATION; CHINA WILL PAUSE COUNTERMEASURES RELATED TO 301 INVESTIGATION FOR A YEAR
US EXTENDS SUSPENSION OF 24% RECIPROCAL TARIFF FOR ONE YEAR
XI-TRUMP MEETING ENDED, LASTS ABOUT 1 HOUR AND 40 MINUTES
TRUMP DEPARTS SOUTH KOREA AFTER MEETING WITH XI AS EXPECTED
GOOGLE, MICROSOFT, META EARNINGS:
ALPHABET 3Q:
*REV. $102.35B, EST. $99.85B
*EPS $2.87, EST. $2.26
*CLOUD REV. $15.16B, EST. $14.75B
*SEARCH & OTHER REV. $56.57B, EST. $54.99B
*GOOGLE CLOUD ENDING QUARTER WITH $155B IN BACKLOG
*CAPEX $23.95B, EST. $22.38B
*SEES FY CAPEX $91B TO $93B, SAW ABOUT $85B, EST. $84.04B
MICROSOFT 1Q:
*REV. $77.67B, EST. $75.55B
*EPS $3.72, EST. $3.67
*CLOUD REV. $49.1B, EST. $48.6B
*INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $30.9B, EST. $30.18B
*CAPEX INCLUDING LEASES $34.9B, EST. $30.06B
*2Q REV. TO BE $79.5B TO $80.6B
*2Q AZURE TO GROW 37% IN CONSTANT CURRENCY
META 3Q:
*REV. $51.24B, EST. $49.59B
*EPS $1.05 VS. $6.03 Y/Y
*OPER INCOME $20.54B, +18% Y/Y
*TAKES $15.93B NON-CASH CHARGE ON TAX BILL
*SEES 4Q REV. $56B TO $59B, EST. $57.38B
*SEES FY CAPEX $70B TO $72b, SAW $66B TO $72B, EST. $69.3B
*EXPECTS CAPEX DOLLAR GROWTH NOTABLY LARGER IN 2026 VS 2025
CONF. CALL:
*PICHAI: GOOGLE EXCITED TO PARTNER WITH ANTHROPIC ON 1M TPUS
*MICROSOFT CFO: AZURE CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS THROUGH END OF FISCAL
*META CFO: PLANS 'AGGRESSIVE' INVESTMENT IN COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE
POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION
POWELL: THERE WERE STRONGLY DIFFERING VIEWS TODAY
POWELL: UNCERTAINTY ON DECEMBER MOVE NEEDS TO BE TAKEN ON BOARD
POWELL: TODAY'S CUT WAS RISK MANAGEMENT
POWELL: GOING FORWARD IS A DIFFERENT THING
POWELL: DON'T KNOW WHAT DATA WE'LL GET BEFORE DECEMBER FOMC
POWELL: STRONGLY DIFFERING VIEWS WERE REALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE
NVIDIA'S INSANE RUN: INFINITYHEDGE
$0.5T: Nov, 2022 (Chatgpt released)
$1T: May, 2023
$2T: Feb, 2024
$3T: Jun, 2024
$4T: Jul, 2025
$5T: Oct, 2025
The Week Ahead Is Back: infinityhedge: BIG WEEK
Mon:
*U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 27th day (2nd longest)
*The Future Investment Initiative event (speakers: CEO of Goldman Sachs, JPM, Barclays, Standard Chartered, HSBC, etc
*MegaETH Public Sale at 1pm UTC
*Trump arrives in Japan
*Hong Kong debuts first Solana spot ETF
*Beijing financial forum
*Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase
Tue:
*NVIDIA GTC Conference: Jensen Huang keynote at 12pm ET
*Monad Early airdrop reveal/Tokenomics expected ?
*PayPal Earnings
Wed:
*FOMC meeting (“Powell will likely characterize the cut as insurance against downside risks to employment. While the government shutdown has delayed official data, alternative data suggest continued downside risks to employment. Policymakers have little reason to adjust their outlook from September, keeping another cut on the table for December.”)
*BoC meeting
*Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft earnings
Thu:
*BOJ meeting (will likely leave rates unchanged)
*ECB meeting
*Trump expected to meet with Xi Jinping (US & China said Sunday that they came to terms on a range of contentious points; Bessent said that he expected that China would not impose export controls on rare earths and that the U.S. would not impose retaliatory tariffs on China while china offered no details but said US expressed a firm stance, while China remained resolute in safeguarding its interests & China and the US reached a basic consensus), setting the table for Trump & Xi to finalize a potential deal)
*Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Microstrategy, Reddit, Roblox, Eli Lilly earnings
*SEC Decision on BlackRock’s Ethereum Staking ETF?
Fri:
*U.S. September PCE
*Exxon, Chevron earnings
*APEC Leaders Meeting
*Mt. Gox 34k BTC Repayment Deadline (but now delayed to October 2026, four days ahead of its deadline)
*Trump’s deadline for raising tariffs on Mexico
Sat:
*US Supreme Court hears tariff legality case
*US retaliatory tariff on china goes into effect if no deal finalize by Trump & Xi
*U.S. government data may be delayed due to the shutdown
*Monad airdrop claim closes on Nov 3
*U.S. court will hear arguments for Sam Bankman-Fried’s appeal (a new trial or reversal of conviction) on Nov 4 at 10:00am
TBA/Whole Week: U.S. Senate expected to vote on trump tariffs, NVIDIA GTC, Trump might Meet North Korea’s Kim Jong on Asia Trip: infinityhedge
⊷Bloomberg Economics took a closer look at what the US-China trade framework could mean:
*Rare earths: China will likely defer its broad controls (Bessent suggested China may delay the measure for a year).
*US tariffs: Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese products are unlikely to materialize.
*US export controls: Existing ones on tech are expected to stay in place (Beijing has not yet confirmed this interpretation). The US may retract threatened curbs on critical software and/or are extension of export controls to subsidiaries of blacklisted Chinese companies.
*Fentanyl: More Chinese cooperation on the crackdown on drug flows, which could pave the way for the US to reduce its 20% tariffs tied to the issue.
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-633
*US SEPT. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
*US SEPT. CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US SEPT. CORE CPI RISES 3% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
*US SEPT. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.4%
BLS: SEPTEMBER CPI DATA COLLECTED BEFORE GOV SHUTDOWN
U.S. SEPT CPI IN 30MIN: INFINITYHEDGE
Forecast:
*headline: 0.39% vs 0.38% M/M prev.
*headline: 3.1% vs 2.9% Y/Y
*Core CPI: 0.30% vs 0.35% M/M
*Core CPI: 3.1% vs 3.1% Y/Y
SPX rxn on Core MoM:
> 0.40%: -1.5% to -2.25%
0.35-0.40%: -0.5% to -1.25%
0.30-0.35%: flat to +0.5% (base case)
< 0.30%: +0.75% to +1.5%
JPM sees a ~65% chance that S&P 500 will be +ve following CPI release.
JPM expecting this CPI day to be “less volatile than usual,” with investors’ expectations that the Fed will ease again on Oct. 29 likely offsetting any inflation-related angst.
GS: Market is fully pricing the cuts in our forecast through the end of this year. The impetus for the market’s shift towards pricing more easing has been the weaker labor market and not the inflation picture, so this CPI print is unlikely to be definitive.
BBG Strategists: Bonds and equities face asymmetric downside risks should inflation come in hotter-than-expected on Friday. However, if traders start questioning the quality of the data, the first reaction may not be the last.
DXY DOLLAR INDEX RISES TO 5-MONTH HIGH OF 100.36
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ALPHABET LOOKING TO RAISE $15 BILLION FROM US DOLLAR BOND SALE
ALPHABET LAUNCHES EIGHT-PART DOLLAR BOND SALE RANGING FROM 3 TO 50 YEARS, TARGETING 1.35% PREMIUM OVER TREASURIES FOR LONGEST MATURITY
ALPHABET ALSO SEEKING TO RAISE €6.25 BILLION IN EUROPE'S DEBT MARKET
AFTER META NOW ALPHABET RAISING BILLIONS THROUGH BOND SALES TO FUND AI EXPANSION
ALPHABET'S US DOLLAR BOND SALE DRAWS ABOUT $90B DEMAND
ALPHABET BOOSTED THE SIZE OF ITS US DOLLAR CORPORATE BOND SALE TO $17.5 BILLION
THE OFFERING MARKS THE BIGGEST EVER BOND SALE SOLD BY ALPHABET
ZCASH SURPASSES MONERO IN MARKET CAP
ZCASH HITS EIGHT-YEAR HIGH
META'S BIGGEST BOND SALE DRAWS RECORD $125 BILLION OF DEMAND
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JPMORGAN TOKENIZES PRIVATE EQUITY FUND ON BANK'S OWN BLOCKCHAIN: WSJ
The move comes ahead of JPMorgan's broader rollout next year of its fund tokenization platform, Kinexys Fund Flow.
JPMorgan's Kinexys Fund Flow platform collects data from fund managers, distributors and administrators, creates smart contracts representing fund ownership, and facilitates the near-instant exchanging of cash and assets on the blockchain.
JPMorgan expects to tokenize additional alternative investment strategies, including private credit, real estate, and hedge funds, in the future. The bank is also exploring the possibility of allowing clients to use fund tokens as collateral for borrowing or constructing a portfolio of tokenized assets.
TRUMP: WILL REDUCE CHINA FENTANYL TARIFF TO 10%
TRUMP: TARIFFS ON CHINA WILL BE 47% DOWN FROM 57%
CHINA TO BUY SOYBEANS IMMEDIATELY
ALL THE RARE EARTH ISSUE HAS BEEN SETTLED
IT'S A ONE-YEAR AGREEMENT THAT WILL BE EXTENDED
GOING TO CHINA IN APRIL
TRUMP: SOUTH KOREA HAS AGREED TO PAY 350 BILLION DOLLARS FOR A LOWERING OF THE TARIFFS CHARGED AGAINST THEM BY THE U.S.
TRUMP: I HAVE GIVEN SOUTH KOREA APPROVAL TO BUILD A NUCLEAR POWERED SUBMARINE
TRUMP: MEETING WITH PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA. IT WILL TAKE PLACE IN A FEW HOURS! (11AM LOCAL/10PM ET)
TRUMP: DUE TO OTHER NATIONS TESTING PROGRAMS, I HAVE DIRECTED DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TO BEGIN TESTING OUR NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON EQUAL BASIS
POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE SUMMARY: <@INFINITYHEDGE>
Tldr: A rate cut in December is not guaranteed...Powell said strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A December cut is not to be seen as a forgone conclusion. In fact, far from it. if there's no government data to reconcile the picture, A very high level of uncertainty, that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving....Some officials are willing to pause rate cuts and see whether the risks in the labor market are real... I hope by december meeting we're getting a better flow of data.
POWELL: LABOR MARKET APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY COOLING; IF DATA SHOW BETTER JOB MARKET, WOULD AFFECT DECISIONS; WE DO NOT SEE JOB MARKET WEAKNESS ACCELERATING; NOT SEEING IMPACT OF AI IN JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA YET
POWELL: IN NEAR TERM, INFLATION RISKS ARE TILTED TO UPSIDE; SEPTEMBER CPI WAS A LITTLE SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
POWELL: WANT TO MOVE TOWARD SHORTER-DURATION BALANCE SHEET; RESERVE DECLINE WILL HAPPEN, BUT NOT FOR LONG TIME; FED WILL BE ADDING RESERVES AGAIN AT A CERTAIN POINT
POWELL: AI IS DIFFERENT FROM DOT-COM ERA; THERE WAS A CLEAR BUBBLE BACK THEN, COMPANIES NOW HAVE EARNINGS; CONSUMER SPENDING IS BIGGER THAN AI INVESTMENT
POWELL: DON'T SEE A BROADER CREDIT ISSUE AT THIS POINT; DON'T SEE SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION ANYWHERE IN ECONOMY
*Powell says the lack of data amid the government shutdown is a “temporary state of affairs,” but he acknowledges there’s a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious on December’s policy decision if the data vacuum continues.
BE: The rate cut aims to insure against further downside employment risks — even though policymakers lacked the usual amount of data to assess the economy. With the government shutdown likely to extend well into November, FOMC members probably won’t have October inflation and unemployment data when they next meet on rates Dec. 9-10. We think the Fed will remain in risk-management mode, cutting by another 25 bps then.”
Powell: If we do wind up resuming rate cuts - at some point we will, but some point - I think we’re trying to get to the end of this cycle with the labor market in a good place and with inflation on its way to 2% or at 2%.
FED SAYS IT WILL STOP SHRINKING BALANCE SHEET ON DEC. 1
*The Fed Ending QT as expected
*Fed says it will end the reduction of its securities holdings beginning on Dec. 1, after slowing the pace of runoff earlier this year, and will roll maturing agency debt into Treasury bills.
*Fed President Jeff Schmid also dissented in favor of no cut
BI: The “hawkish” dissent was a bit of a surprise, which may change our opinion about the pace of cuts going forward, but there’s still little in the data to make us shift our opinion about the shape of the yield curve. There’s little in the statement or with the end of QT that’s likely to change the shape of the yield curve.
Cursor 2.0
Cursor launched their first coding model, 'Composer' is a frontier model that is 4x faster than similarly intelligent models.
https://cursor.com/blog/2-0
NVIDIA BECOMES FIRST COMPANY TO HIT $5 TRILLION MARKET VALUE
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CIRCLE LAUNCHES ARC BLOCKCHAIN TESTNET WITH VISA, BLACKROCK, GOLDMAN SACHS, HSBC, ANTHROPIC, AWS, COINBASE, KRAKEN, ICE, AMONG 100+ INSTITUTIONAL PARTNERS: COINDESK
*Circle said Arc is meant to serve as a base layer for financial services from tokenized funds, cross-border payments to FX settlement. It will offer features like U.S. dollar-based fees, sub-second settlement and optional privacy controls.
*Circle said long-term goal is to decentralize Arc, opening up governance and validator participation.
*AI giant Anthropic plans to integrate its Claude large language models on the network to give developers building on Arc access to AI tools.
THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE AN INFLATION RELEASE NEXT MONTH DUE TO GOV SHUTDOWN: WHITE HOUSE
Keep in mind that it would have taken staff at the BLS to collect price data during the month of October in order to release that month’s data. And those workers essentially weren’t there. Economists have said it is probably easier for the BLS to report October jobs figures -- companies after all know who they hired and fired, they have records. But if no price surveys were conducted in October, it may be awfully tough to reconstruct a CPI report. This would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December.
U.S. SEPT CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. 0.30%; PREV. 0.35%
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Altcoin market capitalization would be roughly $800 billion higher if retail investors — especially in South Korea — hadn’t redirected their attention toward crypto-related stocks and other equities (DATs): 10x Research CEO
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