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Fastest Breaking Markets Updates Crypto • Finance • Technology • War
CNBC on Trump's Strategic National Bitcoin Stockpile Promise
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The Week Ahead: July- Aug
Big Week: ETF flows, Rates, GDP, inflation data, jobs report, earnings coming
Macro:
> Spain, Germany, France, Italy and Eurozone Q2 GDP on 30
> Fed Interest Rate Decision on 31 [forecast: no change in rates]
> BoJ Interest Rate Decision on 31 [forecast: rate hike]
> BoE Interest Rate Decision on Aug 1 [forecast: rate cut/no change]
> U.S. Nonfarm payrolls on Aug 2 [forecast: 178k+]
> U.S. Unemployment Rate on Aug 2 [forecast: 4.1%]
Earnings:
> AMD and Microsoft on 30
> Meta on 31
> Amazon, Apple, MicroStrategy and Coinbase on Aug 1
Crypto:
> Vitalik Buterin speaks at EDCON 2024 on July 29
> Eclipse Mainnet this week [it's Ethereum’s first SVM L2]
Unlocks:
> $ZETA: 19%: $33M on Aug 1
> $W: 33%: $170M on Aug 3
*HQ image and charts in comments 👇
Trump: if I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration to keep 100% of all the Bitcoin the U.S. government currently holds or acquires in the future. This will serve, in effect, as the core of a Strategic National Bitcoin Stockpile.
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Donald Trump Bitcoin Conference Speech Started
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiEIfBatnH8
BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets:
Client Interest: Our client base today, their interest overwhelmingly is in bitcoin first and then somewhat in ETH. There's definitely interest in ETH too, and there's very little interest today beyond those two.
ETF Holder Behavior: There has been a remarkable degree of long-term "buy and hold" behavior from ETF holders so far. IBIT has only had one day of negative flows in 6.5 months since launching in January. They expect this will change over time, and they'll likely see more negative flow days in the future as that would be natural.
Adoption Stage: The Bitcoin ETF has been highly successful, but it's still early days, especially for institutional and wealth advisory adoption.. Most wealth advisory platforms are still at the 'unsolicited' stage for Bitcoin ETFs, with 'solicited' status likely to come later this year or beyond.
Allocation: Independent advisors allocating to Bitcoin ETFs are typically doing so in the 2-3% range.
Bitcoin's Unique Position: BlackRock views Bitcoin not as a simple 'risk-on' asset, but as an asset with unique fundamental drivers and potential as a flight-to-safety asset.
ETH ETF Demand: expect ETH ETF demand to be about 20%-25% of Bitcoin ETF demand in the long term.
Bitcoin's Correlation: There's one macro risk factor where bitcoin is highly exposed and highly correlated to so called risk assets. And that is that bitcoin is massively short real interest rates.
Future Outlook: I don't think we're going to see a long list of crypto ETF's. If you think of bitcoin today, 55% of the market cap ETH at 18%, the next plausible investable assets, like 3%. There's just nothing close to being at that threshold of track record and maturity, liquidity, et cetera, that bitcoin, and to a lesser extent eth have.
BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets said that Despite the launch of spot ETH ETFs this week, it’s unlikely to open the door to funds that track other crypto assets like SOL, etc: TheBlock
https://x.com/infinityhedge07/status/1816567507496391132
OpenAI is testing SearchGPT, AI-powered search engine.
> OpenAI finally coming for Google and Perplexity
VanEck's Bitcoin Price Scenario by 2050: report: July 24, 2024
2050 Price Targets:
Base case: $2.9M
Bear case: $130k
Bull case: $52M
S&P 500 streak without a 2% drop finally ended today after 356 days (longest streak since 2007) as it dropped 2.5%.
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Bitcoin Conference Organizers are in talks with Kamala Harris team for her to speak at the event.
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Spot ETH ETFs hits $1B in trading volume:
Grayscale (ETHE): $350M
Fidelity (FETH): $290M
BlackRock (ETHA): $176M
Bitwise (ETHW): $142M
Franklin (EZET): $46M
VanEck (ETHV): $45M
Grayscale Mini (ETH): $43M
Invesco Galaxy (QETH): $11M
21Shares (CETH): $10M
> Spot BTC ETFs did $4.6B in Volume on day one.
BlackRock: "Our clients are increasingly interested in gaining exposure to digital assets through exchange-traded products (ETPs) which provide convenient access, liquidity and transparency".
“Ethereum’s appeal lies in its decentralized nature and its potential to drive digital transformation in finance and other industries.”
Now Coinbase sending grayscale ETH to different wallets in batches of 15k ETH
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Exclusive: BlackRock's Samara cohen: No Solana ETF in the near term
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WazirX asks Binance for help after $230M hack. Wants to repay affected users. Binance holds $80M in WRX tokens and controls WazirX extra income: moneycontrol
Source: Their legal dispute is still ongoing. There are components of WazirX’s business which are still under Binance’s control, including the revenue -- the surplus of it. Even its WRX token is under their control. So they have reach out to Binance and the talks are on but at early stages—They are in a sandwich situation right now.
Furthermore, the wallets holding locked and released WRX tokens are also managed and controlled by Binance, including the release of such tokens based on the WRX Release Schedule.
Earlier: WazirX to ‘socialize’ $230 million security breach loss among customers: TechCrunch
Sen. Cynthia Lummis announces bill to buy 1 million bitcoin.
Implement a 1-million-unit Bitcoin purchase program over a set period of time to acquire a total stake of approximately 5% of total Bitcoin supply: link
Kamala Harris' team wants to take a position on crypto, source says, as outreach to the industry forges on: TheBlock
Source:
My impression is they get that this matters, They want to have positions on it...they're going to take their time.Читать полностью…
U.S. PCE Jun:
MoM:
> Headline 0.1%, Exp. 0.1%, Prev. 0%
> Core: 0.2%, Exp. 0.2%, Prev. 0.1%
YoY:
> Headline 2.5%, Exp. 2.5%, Prev. 2.6%
> Core: 2.6%, Exp. 2.5%, Prev. 2.6%
Kamala Harris ready to debate Donald Trump on September 10, 2024.
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A wallet linked to Ethereum Foundation (as per Arkham AI) moved 92K ETH after 7 years
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> U.S GDP (QoQ) (Q2) ACTUAL: 2.8% VS 1.4% PREVIOUS; EST 2.0%
*U.S INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 235K VS 243K PREVIOUS; EST 238K
*U.S CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 1851K VS 1867K PREVIOUS; EST 1868K
BlackRock's $500M Tokenized Fund Pitches for Ethena's RWA Investment Plan: Coindesk
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Earnings 2Q:
GOOGLE:
> REV. $84.74B, EST. $84.37B
> AD REV. $64.62B, EST. $64.53B
> CLOUD REV. $10.35B, EST. $10.09B
> EPS $1.89, EST. $1.84
TESLA:
> REV. $25.50B, EST. $24.63B
> ADJ EPS 52C, EST. 60C
> OPER INCOME $1.61B, EST. $1.81B
> FREE CASH FLOW $1.34B, EST. $1.92B
> TESLA NET PROFIT DOWN 45%
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3% point margin of error: Reuters/lpsos
> Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by 1% point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
> Zerohedge on Reuters poll:
*Democrats surveyed: 426
*Republicans surveyed: 376
*As a reminder, this is why ALL Reuters/Ipsos polls in 2016 were wrong: they oversampled Democrats by 4-6%.
MtGox moved BTC
> 37K BTC to 15yPUC
> 5k BTC to 1JbezD (MtGox)
likely seed capital for Grayscale ETH Mini Trust, corresponds to ~10% of ETHE AUM: foobar
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Grayscale deposited 292k ETH worth ~$1B to Coinbase Prime
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