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Fastest Breaking Markets Updates Crypto • Finance • Technology • War
BLS revisions show the economy added 818K fewer jobs than previously reported over the 12 months ended March. That would lower monthly payroll gains (initially +246K) by 68K a month, on average.
This means job growth was +1.4% in March 2024, versus previously reported +1.9%. This revision of -0.5% to the employment level is the largest since 2009: WSJ Reporter, Nick
*This is the biggest negative revision to payrolls since the global financial crisis.
The SEC rejected Cboe’s 19b-4 filings for Solana ETFs: Source: theBlock
This came after SEC reiterated its view to issuers that Solana is a security.
WHO declares mpox (monkeypox) a global public health emergency for second time in two years.
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Traders have cooled a bit on their expectations for interest rate cuts, particularly in September, where the odds of a larger 50-basis-point reduction are now less than 50%.
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WHITE HOUSE'S KIRBY:
*WE SHARE ISRAEL'S CONCERNS ABOUT AN IRANIAN ATTACK
*TIMING OF IRAN ATTACK ON ISRAEL COULD BE THIS WEEK
*WE HAVE TO BE PREPARED FOR WHAT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS
*White House: WE FULLY EXPECT CEASEFIRE TALKS TO MOVE FORWARD
[Hamas reportedly won't attend Thursday's peace talks]
*WHITE HOUSE: THEY NEED TO BE THERE
**ISRAEL MILITARY SPOKESPERSON: WE ARE TAKING SERIOUSLY THE COMMENTS FROM OUR ENEMIES, WE ARE ON PEAK ALERT BUT NO CHANGES TO HOME FRONT INSTRUCTIONS
The Week Ahead: Aug
Macro:
> Elon Musk and Trump X Spaces on 12 [8PM ET]
> U.S. CPI on 14
> Japan GDP (Q2) on 14 [23:50]
> Israel Braces for Attack From Iran
China Earnings:
> Tencent on 14
> Alibaba on 15
Crypto:
> MakerDAO's Tokenization Grand Prix starts Aug 12. BlackRock’s BUIDL likely to participate.
> Ethena to propose SOL as backing asset for USDe this week.
> Grass final Epoch 7 ends on 14.
Unlocks:
> $SAND 9% [$52.8M] on 14
> $STRK 3.9% [$23.8M] on 15
> $ARB 2.8% [$52.3M] on 16
Earnings/Charts/Articles 🔻
From Market Opening highs:
S&P 500 down 2%
Nasdaq down 2.30%
BTC down 4%
Gold down 0.7%
Apple up 1.5%
Nvidia down 7%
Microsoft down 2.5%
Google down 2%
Coinbase down 10%
MicroStrategy down 10.5%
*VIX at 29
Egypt instructed all of its airlines to avoid Iranian air space for a 3 hour period between 0100-0400 GMT on Aug 8: Reuters
Egyptian sources: NOTAM issued for Iranian military exercises.
U.S. Market Opens
*S&P 500, NASDAQ OPEN UP 0.4%
*NVIDIA UP 4%
*APPLE DOWN 2%
U.S. Market Opens
S&P 500 Opens 4.2% Lower
NASDAQ 100 Declines 5.4%
Breaking Market: 🚨
*Japan’s Topix Index of equities has fallen as much as 11%
*Japan's Nikkei crashes 13%
*Taiwan’s Taiex Closes Down 8.4%, Worst Day on Record
*S&P 500 Futures Fall 3.1%, *NASDAQ Futures Down 6%
*BTC down 11%
*$900M liquidated in crypto market over past 24hours—largest single liquidation was $27M
Gold down 2%
BTC down 3.5%
S&P 500 down 2.5%
Nasdaq down 3%
Microsoft down 2.5%
Nvidia down 3.5%
Apple up 2%
*VIX at $29.3 (+57%)
Fed's Powell remarks from Jackson Hole:
Powell: The Time Has Come for Policy to Adjust [time has come for cut rates]
Powell: We Don’t Seek or Welcome Further Labor Market Cooling
Powell: My Confidence Has Grown That Inflation Is on Path to 2%
Powell: The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks
Powell: The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions
Powell: We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability
US BLS Preliminary Payrolls Benchmark Revision: -818K (Actual) vs -187K (Previous)
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The Week Ahead: Aug
Macro:
> China loan prime rates on 20
> U.S. FOMC Minutes on 21
> BOJ Special Session on rate hike on 23
> Jerome Powell will speak at the 2024 Jackson Hole Symposium on 23 [It’s highly likely Powell will use his Jackson Hole address to declare it will soon be the ‘appropriate’ time to cut rates]
Crypto:
> Babylon Bitcoin Staking Mainnet Launch
Events:
> Web3 Summit: 19-21 [Berlin]
> Coinfest Asia: 22-23 [Bali]
> ETHTokyo: 23-26
Token Unlocks: $520M
> AVAX: $198M: 2.4%
> PIXEL: $8M: 7%
Earnings/Charts/Articles 🔻
Bitcoin ETFs Latest 13f filing data: Coinshares
> Capula Management and Avenir add Bitcoin positions:
- Capula: 2.6% of portfolio ($470m)
- Avenir: 50% of portfolio ($388m)
> Notable changes:
- Millennium reduced from 0.33% to 0.19% ($537m decline)
- Goldman Sachs holds $419m, likely for clients
- Morgan Stanley: $87m outflow, now at $203m
- Other significant outflows were from DCG, SIG Holding and Jane Street.
> Top Bitcoin holders by type:
- Investment advisors: $4.7B
- Brokerages: $1.5B
- Hedge Funds: $3.8B
- Holding companies: $1.1B
Note: 13F filings offer quarterly snapshots of institutional BTC ETF holdings but don't reveal full investment strategies. Not all holdings indicate bullish stances on BTC. Firms may use ETFs for volatility trading, offsetting short positions, or basis trades exploiting spot-futures price differences.
Wallet connected to Silk Road [US GOV] moved 9.4k BTC to coinbase Prime
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July CPI:
MoM: 0.2% [Est. 0.2%, Prev. -0.1%]
YoY: 2.9% [Est. 3%, Prev. 3%]
Core MoM: 0.2% [Est. 0.2%, Prev. 0.1%]
Core YoY: 3.2% [Est. 3.2%, Prev. 3.3%]
*TRADERS TRIM FED RATE-CUT BETS AFTER US CPI DATA
Several venture capital funds, including Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures, have received letters from the SEC over their involvement with Uniswap Labs.
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IN THE LAST 12 HRS $464.7M WORTH ETH CONNECTED TO PLUSTOKEN MOVED: ARKHAM
Plustoken was a 2018-19 Ponzi Scheme that scammed investors worldwide for between $2B and $2.9B in cryptocurrency. 789.5K ETH ($191.9M) was moved from a Plustoken wallet and distributed through hundreds of intermediary wallets in June 2020.
Market Open:
*S&P 500 OPENS UP 1.1%
*NASDAQ UP 1.5%
*NVIDIA UP 4%
*APPLE UP 1%
BLACKROCK SPOT BTC ETF IBIT's VOLUME HITS $2.2B, 4-MONTH HIGH
*HIGHER THE VOLUME HIGHER THE FEAR: BBG ETF ANALYST
If you bitcoin bull you actually DONT want to see crazy volume today as ETF volume on bad days is a pretty reliable measure of fear. On flip, deep liquidity on bad days is part of what traders and institutions love about ETFs, so you also want to see volume too, good for the long term.Читать полностью…
Down Pre-Market:
Apple: 6%
Nvidia: 8%
Microsoft: 4.5%
Google: 4.5%
ICYMI:
> BOJ raised interest rate to 0.25%, highest since Dec. 2008
> Japan's Topix index plunges 6.1% last Friday
> Nvidia's Blackwell AI chips will be delayed by three months or more due to design flaws
> Elliott warns Nvidia in 'bubble', calls AI 'overhyped'. Yet Big Tech AI spending set to double+ by year-end. Meta's Zuckerberg projects $40bn capex in 2024.
> Genesis finished bankruptcy process, begins $4B distribution in crypto and cash
> Real-time recession indicator Sahm Rule triggered last week
> Bybit exits France
> Tether reports $1.3B profit for Q2
> Galaxy Digital posted a 2Q net loss of $177M
> Berkshire Cuts Apple Stake by Almost Half
> The US, UK, Canada and other countries are urging their citizens to leave Beirut. France also told its citizens to get out of Iran.
The Week Ahead: Aug
Macro:
> Israel Braces for Attack From Iran
> Initial Jobless Claims data on 8
Earnings:
> reddit on 6
> Robinhood on 7
Crypto:
> Morgan Stanley to offer Bitcoin ETFs to eligible clients from Aug 7
> Vitalik Buterin [Aug. 8] and SEC's Commissioner Hester M. Peirce [Aug. 6] to speak at the Asia Blockchain Summit 2024
More Charts/Articles 🔻
Morgan Stanley to offer Bitcoin ETFs from Aug 7, firm’s 15K advisors can pitch BlackRock and Fidelity BTC ETFs to eligible clients: CNBC
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