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⚡️Daily analysis of the cryptocurrency market from open and closed sources. @Disclaimer_information @PaidPromotion_only @Insider_Private Channel owner:- @MrBybit
🚨Institutions filed for a #Bitcoin ETF
- BlackRock ($10T)
- Fidelity ($4.5T)
- Franklin Templeton ($1.5T)
- Invesco Galaxy ($1.5T)
- WisdomTree ($87B)
- VanEck ($61B)
- GlobalX ($40B)
- ARK Invest ($14B)
- Bitwise ($1B)
- Valkyrie ($1B)
Total assets managed: $17.7 trillion💰
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#BTC_Update 1W
Bitcoin levels I'm watching
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One of the biggest sources of inflation?
The quietest trade war in history.
Total trade restrictions worldwide are about to cross 3,000 for the first time in history.
This is up nearly 300% since 2019 and rising quickly.
Trade relations and energy resources are being weaponized.
As a result, supply-side inflation has been out of control for years.
Fighting inflation in this environment is extremely difficult.
The Fed’s job is far from done.
While the top in the rates is likely in, this doesn’t mean the Fed’s job is done.
We expect to see a long PAUSE at which point the Fed can start cutting rates in Q2 2024.
Even then, their job will not be done.
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FTX gets approval to sell $3.4B in #Crypto assets & CPI data comes in worse than expected
Markets aren't falling down that much, and not much should be happening from it.
The Solana, which corresponds to $1.2 billion of the assets of FTX, is mostly staked and can't be sold.👇
Now, what's next?
First of all, FTX can sell up to $200m of assets on a weekly basis for their corresponding clients so the liabilities could be erased.
This can add some additional sell pressure on the markets, but that's probably already priced in.
The major fact is that we should be seeing a case of Solana being sold off massively, but as an anticipation, Solana was already sold off entirely in the past week and could result into a 'sell the rumour, buy the news' type of thing.
Most of the Solana assets can't be sold. Only 7 million of $SOL, which are mostly sold already.
Now, what did happen today too?
CPI came in. Headline CPI came in at 3.7%, while 3.6% was expected and that shows a rally in the data, inflation peaking up.
Core CPI however, that one came in at 4.3%, while 4.3% was expected. This is a substantial drop and tackles the potential of another rate hike. Most likely we won't see that in the upcoming meeting on Wednesday.
As a response, markets haven't made a move at all, as everything came in as expected, but one thing did move.
Yields are down one percent and could continue to fall through two reasons;
- Worse economic data than expected. This would potentially cause the fear of a recession and yields to go down -> Gold to go up.
- PPI to come in lower than expected tomorrow. As a result, yields are likely going to come down too.
Interesting days, but Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $26.1K and fighting a potential breakout at resistance after sweeping $25K.
Remember, breakout above $26.3K is vital for bullish continuation and support should hold at $25.3-25.6K.
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FTX RECEIVES COURT APPROVAL TO LIQUDATE CRYPTO ASSETS
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#BTC_Update 1H
No clear signals as far as I can see on #BTC right now although purely from an EW perspective we likely have a little higher to go to complete this correction.
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For the first time since July 2022, CPI inflation has risen for 2 straight months.
Much of this has been driven by a 10.5% jump in gasoline prices over the last month.
Rent inflation still stands at 7.8% and shelter inflation stands at 7.3%.
Many of the items that people use every day are still seeing inflation rates well above 5%.
Higher oil prices are only making things worse.
What does the Fed do if oil prices rise back above $100?🤔👀
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August CPI inflation data shows US inflation rate RISES to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%.
Core CPI inflation FELL to 4.3%, in-line with expectations of 4.3%.
Headline inflation is back on the rise, but core inflation is finally falling.
What does the Fed do now?
Currently, there is just a 9% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at next week's Fed meeting.
However, odds of another rate hike by year-end are back on the rise and nearing 50%.
The Fed's job is still far from over.
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🆘We remind you!🆘
🟢Today, in 3 hours, the inflation rate and the CPI.
➡️Price action will be messy.😱
✔️Previous: 3.2%
🤔Forecast: 3.6%
A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (bearish for S&P 500 and #crypto), while a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD (bullish for S&P 500 and crypto)."
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Today, the prices of TRB and STORJ's U-based contracts on OKX suddenly dropped to $15.4 and $0.23 at 15:39, with short-term declines of 36% and 23%, and then quickly rose to the normal price level 3 minutes later. PERP, YGG, WLD, and LPT also experienced similar fluctuations.
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#BTC_Update
Bitcoin has been forming this massive cup & handle pattern -- right below the key $30k resistance.
Once that resistance breaks, I expect fireworks. 🚀
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#FTX Tweaks Crypto Sale Proposal to Placate U.S. Government
The bankrupt crypto exchange wants to sell off its billions of dollars in crypto before returning funds to creditors – but doesn’t want markets forewarned
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#BTC_Update 1W
Bitcoin is on thin ice.
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BULLISH DIVERGENCE CONFIRMED!
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CPI data release today at 6PM IST / 8:30 AM EST.
Estimated rate : 3.6%
Above 3.6% = Bearish for market
Below 3.6% = Bullish for market
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Reasons for a Bitcoin ETF are so important:
- Tax benefits (like retirement accounts)
- Expands BTC to a massive audience
- Huge liquidity injection
- Allows ETFs to scoop up BTC
- Real BTC touch without self-security hassle
- Big green light for BTC's legitimacy for everyone, not a trick!
If all retirement accounts diverted just 1% to BTC, it would increase its market cap by billions! Education + Investment = Future gains. 🚀
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US National Debt is now up a massive $1.5 trillion since the debt ceiling “crisis.”
Over the last 3 months alone, the US has added $500 billion PER MONTH to the national debt, on average.
Over the last 5 years, US debt is up a whopping 54%.
Meanwhile, YTD interest expense just passed $800 BILLION.
These numbers are so large it’s hard to believe.
This is a crisis.
The US just released their latest budget report for August.
CBO estimates now show a $2 trillion deficit next year.
Spending is simply out of control.
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USD Liquidity vs #Bitcoin
Another +$55B USD Liquidity up tick today coming out of the Reverse Repo.
USD Liquidity now up nearly $300B in 1 month 👀
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🇺🇸US inflation each month since 2013 (CPI MoM)
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#ETH_Update
Ethereum is currently trading inside ascending channel on a 2-day chart💁♂️
The pattern suggests $ETH might reach the $1300 lower border🎯
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The U.S. SEC charged Stoner Cats 2 LLC with conducting an unregistered crypto-asset securities offering in the form of NFTs, raising approximately $8 million from investors to fund an animated web series titled Stoner. SC2 agreed to a cease-and-desist order and to pay a $1 million civil penalty. — link
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The pressure is now firmly on the SEC to approve a #Bitcoin ETF.
✅ Wall Street wants it (BlackRock, Fidelity et al)
✅ Court rules against SEC rejection as illogical, capricious and arbitrary
✅ CNBC has pro-Bitcoin panelists openly advocating for $BTC
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OKX responded that due to a short-term abnormality in the platform's price limit calculation system, the related problems have been fixed and a compensation plan will be provided as soon as possible.
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The European Commission 🇪🇺 just launched an investigation into subsidies given to Electric Vehicle makers in China 🇨🇳
“Europe is open to competition but not for a race to the bottom.” - EC President Ursula von der Leyen
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🇬🇧Stagflation is upon us for the UK economy🚩
Three months of consecutive rising unemployment
No growth
Raging inflation
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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes predicted in Singapore today that the next bull market may start in early 2024, not only for cryptocurrencies, but also for other risk assets; in addition, he believes that AI will create opportunities for decentralized storage, and Filecoin has great development space. Source: Blockbeats.
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BitMEX has launched a prediction market that allows traders to bet on the outcome of real-world events. There are currently three contracts now: FTX bankruptcy debt recovery rate, Bitcoin Spot ETF approved before October 17 and SBF going to jail, more contracts will be added in the future. — link
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The amount stolen from the CoinEx crypto exchange has risen to $54 million, according to SlowMist. CoinEx stated that it has suspended deposits and withdrawals and will fully compensate all users. — link
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