Two trades today—the first was taken early, and the second moved so quickly that I couldn't call it and I also missed it. The reason I follow up on trade management for the trades I call is to ensure a winning trade doesn’t turn into a losing one and to maximize the outcome of every trade.More opportunities on the way ...
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📊 Trend and Momentum
The NASDAQ100 is trading within a rising trend channel in the medium to long term, indicating sustained positive momentum and increasing buy interest among investors. The absence of significant resistance on the price chart suggests further upside potential.
While short-term pullbacks are expected, they are likely to be buying opportunities, as the longer-term uptrend remains intact. The market has effectively worked off excess volatility, creating a healthier foundation for continued growth.
📊 Key Observations: Bullish and Bearish Biases
➠ Breakout Potential: A clear break above the descending wedge and key resistance levels (21,000 and 21,500) could accelerate the bullish move toward 22,000 and beyond.
➠ Pullback Opportunities: Short-term retracements (dips) should be viewed as opportunities to enter or add to positions, as the overall trend remains upward.
➠ No Interest in Shorting: Despite concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates, the technical setup does not favor shorting the index. The long-term uptrend is too strong to ignore.
🔰 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
NAS100 as of 20th January 2025
As highlighted in the Fundamental Analysis section, the NASDAQ100 has shown resilience during the early hours of Friday’s session, attempting to break above a descending wedge pattern within a major bullish channel, as seen on higher timeframes. This breakout attempt signals potential upward momentum, especially if the price successfully manages to trade above the key level of 21,200. Such a move could confirm a strong bullish continuation, opening the door for further gains toward the 22,000 level in the medium term.
📊 Important Key Levels to Watch
➠ 20,500: Price sharply reversed at this major key level, signaling a strong presence of buyers, which also acted as the support trendline of the ascending channel.
➠ 21,000: Upon reversal, the price successfully managed to break and trade above this level, acting as another confirmation for a potential surge (bullish momentum) targeting 22,100.
➠ 21,000 (Bearish Scenario): This level coincides with a short-term downtrend line. A decisive break below this level could signal the start of a downtrend, with 20,500 acting as initial support in case of a pullback.
📊 Considerations
➠ Historical Patterns: Previous transitions and re-elections have shown that markets often react positively to pro-business policies in the short term. However, volatility can spike during policy rollouts.
➠ Seasonal Factors: Inauguration periods often bring heightened market activity, so expect increased trading volumes and potential price swings.
📊 Risks to Consider
➠ Policy Surprises: Trump’s statements or policy shifts could introduce volatility, especially if they deviate from market expectations. Unexpected policy changes, geopolitical tensions, or weak economic data could alter market dynamics. We always have to be prepared for the unpredictable.
➠ Economic Data: Weak earnings reports or disappointing economic indicators (like jobless claims or retail sales) could dampen investor confidence.
➠ Global Events: Geopolitical tensions or international trade disputes could result in. a sell-off for the indices.
📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
NASDAQ100 as of 20th January 2025
Market Outlook
➠ Last week, the NAS100, alongside other major U.S. indices like the Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500, showed significant signs of recovery after a recent short term bearish trend. This comes after the markets hit all-time highs in early December, followed by a sharp pullback. As we enter this new trading week, market sentiment leans optimistic, supported by a mix of economic data, policy announcements, and Trump’s return to the Oval Office, which is already stirring conversations in the financial world.
➠ This upward momentum reflects growing buy interest among investors, signaling positive market development. With no major resistance levels on the chart, further gains are on the table unless we encounter a negative catalyst. Overall, the index remains technically bullish in the medium-term outlook.
♻️ A Small Flashback and Highlights
➠ To help everyone understand the importance of the fundamentals I’m talking about, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. 👇👇
➠ This was back in 2019/2020 when the NAS100 index was trading below 10K (~9500). At the time, the markets were heavily influenced by fundamentals like the U.S.-China trade wars (Trump’s sanctions and tariffs) as well as the mighty COVID-19 disaster.
➠ Back then, no one was trading ICT 😄, and we were just fine and profitable, in fact. There were times when the markets didn’t respect any fancy technical concepts. It was all about breakouts of key levels, retests, and continuations, as seen below.
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📊 Weekly Trading Insights: NAS100, US30 & XAUUSD
○ Technical and Fundamental Analysis
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NB: This is a full, detailed analysis. If admins find it inappropriate, please feel free to delete it—no hard feelings!
Disclaimer: I’m not promoting anything, and I don’t sell courses.
Ever-changing market conditions require adaptable strategies
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📊 Drivers for the Upcoming Trading Week
➠ Presidential Policy Announcements
With President Trump officially sworn in for his second term, markets are closely watching for his administration's next moves. Historically, Trump has been known for pro-business policies like tax cuts and deregulation, which have fueled investor confidence in the past. However, we must also prepare for the flip side, his protectionist trade stance, which could pressure sectors heavily reliant on international trade.
💡 What to Watch:
- Announcements regarding tax reform or deregulation (positive drivers).
- Any trade policy changes or tariffs (potential risk factors).
➠ Trade Relations and Tariffs
Trade relations remain a key market-moving factor. Any updates on tariffs, negotiations, or trade agreements could directly affect the performance of major NASDAQ100 constituents, particularly tech and manufacturing companies.
💡 What to Watch:
- Developments in US-China trade discussions.
- Any updates impacting international revenue streams for key NASDAQ100 players like Apple, Tesla, or Microsoft.
➠ Corporate Earnings Reports
As always, earnings season is crucial. This week, we’ll see several reports from tech giants within the NASDAQ100. Strong earnings have the potential to override broader concerns and propel the index upward. Conversely, weaker-than-expected numbers could introduce short-term volatility.
💡 What to Watch:
- Company earnings from key contributors to the NASDAQ100, including Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla.
- Sector-specific trends, especially in tech and consumer electronics.
➠ Market Sentiment and Investor Confidence
The general mood in the market, influenced by economic data, corporate performance, and political developments, will play a significant role in stock price movements. For example, positive signals, like steady interest rates and stronger-than-expected jobs data, could bolster confidence, while negative news could quickly shift the tone.
☀️ Preparing for a New Era of Market Volatility
➠ To those of us who were lucky enough to have started trading 7 - 8 years ago during Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president, you’ll remember how interesting and profitable the markets were. The U.S. stock indices, particularly the NAS100 and US30, saw massive volatility spikes—sometimes 2,000–3,000 pips in just a few minutes—all because of a single Trump tweet. it was every trader’s dream (or nightmare, if you weren’t prepared and disciplined).
➠ Fast forward to today, January 20, 2025, with Trump gearing up for his second term, I believe we’re entering another golden era of high volatility and opportunities in the markets. Whether you’re already a profitable trader or just starting out, this is your chance to level up.
🗝 But here’s the thing: success in this trading environment isn’t just about technical analysis. Yes, your trendlines, fair value gaps, order blocks, and liquidity sweeps matter, but fundamentals will dominate the most.
While many traders tend to ignore the important fundamental aspects of trading and solely focus on technicals, geopolitical events, interest rate decisions, FOMC meetings, tariffs, sanctions, and NFPs will drive the markets. And let’s not forget Trump’s unique ability to move markets with a single statement just like he did back in the days with China Tarrifs and Sanctions without forgetting the recent frenzy around his meme coin, $.TRUMP, which in less than 5 hours created over 500+ millionaires.
➠ This is also a reminder: trading isn’t just about strategy. It’s about discipline, stable psychology, and proper risk management. Without a solid plan and the mental fortitude to stick to it, even the best setups will fail.
👌 So, buckle up. The next few months could be life-changing for traders, especially in U.S. indices like the NAS100 and US30.
Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and let’s milk this volatility together.
Let’s dive in! 👇👇👇
Important Update
With President Trump taking office today, he’s expected to sign close to 100 executive orders, which could shake things up in areas like trade, energy, and regulations. This might lead to some market volatility—wider spreads, lower liquidity, and unpredictable moves in equities and commodities.
Gold remains steady, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Thankkk you soo soo muchh brotherr ❤️❤️❤️❤️😊
This journey would be amazing ❤️❤️❤️😊
#GOLD
For new traders as I said before about the strong candlesticks
Our POI printed a doji indicates buyers stepping in again
