LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 23:49

In MakerDAO’s case buybacks contributed about 2.5% a year out of their 21% CAGR since 2018.

Earnings contributed ~15%

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 23:43

What do you mean by proper cash flows?

You use future cash flows.

If it’s too early stage and speculative then real options model would be better - which is an entirely different discussion because unlike DCF which lowers value the more uncertain something is, options become more valuable the more uncertainty there is

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 23:07

MakerDAO has a cashflow arriving to its $MKR (I am talking about "old" maker, don't remember new token names lol) token in indirect way via burning.

Any token burning (if supply if finite) works as indirect dividends since all holders with their bags slowly but surely get bigger share in the overall supply with their remaining holdings.

So all burn $MKR tokens that were burnt as an interest of $DAI can be assumed as a cashflow

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 22:42

Unfortunately, we cannot mint this vibe.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 21:04

He does this every once in a while. Here are some of his previous adventures:

https://x.com/123456/status/1857857359986446536

https://x.com/123456/status/1899503731701633133

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 20:32

performed a lot better than ETH since 2021

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 19:00

Ask Jason of Hyperstructures.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:58

yup, i get it. i'd simplify and distill it into a sort of Long Bets type of a platform though.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:40

Okay, here's another question. How is it different from the memecoin market?

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:28

It’s the market design version of the is–ought problem.

Prediction markets are about what is.
Opinion markets are about what ought to be.

One tells you what people think the weather’s going to be.
The other argues whether rain is a psyop.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:56

just don't get the purpose of having such markets. feels like it is something that can be gamed more easily

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:55

hmm yeah maybe so. I am just trying to understand how you can have a market if there is no resolution

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:47

Like can I make money by spreading disinformation?

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:42

I believe most of the things in society are actually non-determinable and evolve over time. Of course, there might be large directional sentiment shifts from time to time that make things look almost “certain” or “resolved” or “binary” but even that changes.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:38

prediction vs conspiracy theories?

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 23:47

In the model burns are not considered cash flows, although they do contribute to total returns.

Earnings = revenue - expenses is cash flows for Maker.

The point of the analysis is that it’s the earnings which contribute the majority of returns.

Buybacks are something they do with the earnings but they could just as easily retain the earnings and invest in new projects which if they deliver incremental returns to earnings above their cost then they likely are even better use of cash then buybacks

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 23:14

Btw, if someone follows Babylon ($BABY token) that is hot today - we created nutshell explanation of token (not airdrop, but its utility and thoughts on its value): https://x.com/valueverse_ai/status/1907899191524995312

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 22:45

how do we value DeFi without proper cash flow?

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 22:42

the inverse correlation between ETH and BRK.A is the sublime abstract meta-narrative digest to train any LLMs with when it comes to market swarm intelligence.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 20:51

https://x.com/123456/status/1907798504237330807

Is he trying to spam hyperliquid to take it down?

Can any security expert explain

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 19:39

https://x.com/RyskyGeronimo/status/1907848740884590862

Tested market efficiency by taking MakerDAO's earnings from 2019-2024 and discounting back to Dec 2018.

TLDR: crypto markets are actually surprisingly good at discounting the future and look way further out then we are inclined to believe.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:59

NFTs will be abandoned except for some metadata and provenance usecases altogether. So ZERO.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:56

I warned you at 700K

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:39

So that's what I am saying right? Opinion market seems to be highly susceptible to gaming. If I know that most of the users of the service will tend to be vaccine deniers, I have higher incentive to claim that vaccine causes negative effects. Since there is no outcome to the market, it will trade until the hype/buzz around the topic survives. You extract from the true believers. And move on to the next topic. It doesn't really seem to have a purpose beyond measuring online buzz among a certain crowd.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 18:08

Rebrand season 🙂 https://x.com/VeloraDEX/status/1907811479933366731

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:55

well I guess you can have it, as illustrated by perps

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:53

Market for “abstract theories” is extremely reductionist. I’ll share more once I can.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:47

okay so it's a market of abstract theories, how do you make a money off it? Hope the idea catches on tiktok?

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:41

That’s somewhat of a good analogy. Just remove the resolution from the voting process (the voting never ends) and treat it as a continuous spectrum from one extreme to the other and we are pretty close.

LobsterDAO 🦞

03 Apr 2025 17:38

This is a bit hard to grasp on a theoretical level

Some “things” - think beliefs “ do not have a tether to a determinable outcome. Bitcoin’s price can be determined. But the general population’s sentiment regarding the security of Bitcoin’s consensus algorithm cannot.

This is non-determinable