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Main Channel t.me/blockchain_lobsters
like "Is an orange man racist?" thats like voting, no?
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what existing industry/bucket would u put it in, general collectables, memes, lux goods?
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the paper is EXACTLY about non-deterministic (probabilistic) outcomes: when you bet not on e.g. "BTC price will be higher than 100K" but on "BTC price will be above $100K with 10% chance, while it will be between $75K and $100K with 90% chance"
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https://x.com/coinmamba/status/1907542143503094075
This made me laugh
This is a response for the tweet from Arthur’s family office yesterday.
https://twitter.com/maelstromfund/status/1907093164592144770?s=46
What happened w hayes?
The guy keeps overscamming?
https://x.com/cindyleowtt/status/1907661338110775551?=1
Exactly my point. Even with Wise, you can't convert FROM most african curr. (except ZAR) and the TO rate is ridiculous.
Also, similar point with the savings.... It is less risky and more profitable to hold USDT onchain/Binance than to put your native currency in a high-interest savings account or in govt bonds in many of these countries... It is this use case that then gets people interested in crypto narratives
ship china parts to mexico, assemble in mexico, ship from mexico to us
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In LATAM Western Union and the likes still dominate the cross-border /remittances market while charging absurd fees but I believe mostly because they offer a physical store or partner with Groceries stores making it convenient for those receiving the cash ( many do not even have a bank)
Generally speaking a wire transfer is still very expensive (30-70$) in the region and while each country does have its Venmo-like app with minimal txn fees there is definitely a market for a fintech app that handles multiple currencies and integrates a debit card
Many banks do offer cheap crossborder txs but usually not to individuals but businesses who operate in multiple countries ( BAC has a 5$ fee for interbank txs called Ameritransfer) or individuals with a really high net worth who have accounts in multiple countries
In Argentina due to the volatility of the currency and abuses by Government many people even used to use Binance as their USD savings account and weirdly enough Tron was very used for stable transfers between users. Dunno if that changed with Milei
Yes, but still, not for local day-to-day payments.
And there are A LOT of misleading data around:
For example : https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pattiruss_2025-solana-stablecoin-report-activity-7312753092486156288-_rsT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAV-Fs0Bmhvr-_zm6BKxYtvfvFqi9MiQOCE
Nobody pays for local day-to-day txs of 20 euros/dollars fee. However, researchers still use cross-border numbers to prove local usage of stables
Outcomes that can determined (even if within some range)
VS
Non-outcome beliefs; things that cannot be tethered to any event resolving
how big to you guys think the nft market is gonna get in terms of marketcap, in a decade if ur optimistic?
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Dave’s paper is great but it is solving for events which have determinable outcomes at some point in time. It allows for more accurate positioning via continuity but it does not discuss how this could be applied to non-determinable outcomes. Opinion Markets do not have resolution in the sense that there is no ultimate truth that could be derived from some exogenous source.
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If both parties make public statements about a usually nothing-burger event, I bet there will be some drama involved.
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I'd call it granular markets. Average financial markets in fact are this type of continuous (well, since they close at 5 pm, rather continual). Dave White of Paradigm (linked below/ above) has an approach termed distribution markets for non-passive non-resolute markets.
It'd be nice to meta-forecast resolved markets into non-resolution by counter-opinion on top of a meta-layer though—like the meta-forecast website but where there is enough cash flow to counter-ask/ bid that a given market is not resolvable so should be treated as such.
In the meantime, it'd be even better to "democratize" private markets to have a sense of real information finance.
https://x.com/_Dave__White_/status/1866497496773804434
That's exactly what lead to boom in Nigerian users in 23/24, desperate to get money out of naira. Little known fluidfi was selling their depegged stable for full value.
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https://x.com/PrimordialAA/status/1907512286014800195
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kinda - in the EU for example they have a concept applied to CO2 emmissions where they tie the original "emitter" of a part and have it tracked all the way to the consumer - that way they get all the tax dollars - you could do the same with tariffs
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It's the framing of the argument that is misleading, imho. It obviously doesn't make economic sense to do localCurrency->crypto->stable->localCurrency for every transfer. Even if a merchant (say a grocer) accepted crypto/stables as payment, ultimately transactions will be settled in the local currency as crypto isn't a native/first class citizen of the national economic system.
The point I am making is about cross-border transfers. Nigeria has one of the highest crypto activity and 99% of this is simply cross-border transfers, not any base crypto narrative/sentiment
It depends on which regions you are dealing with and the route taken. Even before USDT, BTC on P2P (with 6 confirms or 1 hr wait and P2P merchant fees) was much cheaper and faster for cross border payments in LATAM and Africa. It was common to see value increase of 30%+, even for small value transfers. Ofc, transactions are settled in the native currencies on either side of the border. That's by design, isn't it - as each county/region has its own payment system.
Even now, I'll use crypto for 9 out of every 10 transfers done in these regions.
FDUSD seeing meaningful volume for the first time 😂
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