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Bitcoin DUMP
We've recently detected a pattern with the price of #Bitcoin.
When miners submit their $BTC to exchanges, the price generally falls.
This occurs because it boosts market selling pressure!!
MINDSET MONDAY
📈 The Importance of Patience and Resilience in Trading: A Case of BTC and ETH
Over the last 2 years, the BTC and ETH charts have transitioned towards a behavior that is characterised by periods of rapid price escalations to prolonged moments of sideway movements, which can be very boring. This was not always the case. Over the past couple of years, these markets have morphed, emphasizing the importance of patience and resilience among traders. It is important to understand a market and to have experience in a market to be able to recognise such change in behavior. For our Mindset Day, I have written a post about the importance of these traits, using some quotes from Frost and Prechter's "Elliott Wave Principle."
From the Elliott Wave Principle:
"🔄 Complexity and lethargy are two of the most frustrating occurrences for the analyst. Nevertheless, they are part of the reality of the market and must be taken into account. The authors highly recommend that during such periods you take some time off from the market to enjoy the profits made during the rapidly unfolding impulsive waves. You can't "wish" the market into action; it isn't listening. When the market rests, do the same."
The above passage succinctly captures the frustration of witnessing boring market behavior. However, the idea isn't to resist or resent it, but to adapt. In a rapidly changing ecosystem, traders need to understand that the market will have its 'downtime', and during these moments, stepping back might be the wisest decision. Or you could just switch to a different time frame or asset class. Just do not trade out of boredom. Trade your plan..
BTC and ETH have notably been "boring" this year. 🐌 This lethargy can be maddening for traders used to rapid market actions. But the dualistic nature of these coins demands patience. It's not enough to just anticipate impulsive waves; one must prepare for the sideways drifts too.
Further wisdom from the Elliott Wave Principle states:
"❗️ In our experience, we have found it extremely dangerous to allow our emotional involvement with the market to let us accept a wave count that reflects disproportionate wave relationships or a misshapen pattern merely on the basis that the Wave Principle's patterns are somewhat elastic. Elliot cautioned that 'the right look' may not be evident at all degrees of a trend simultaneously. The solution is to focus on the degrees that are the clearest."
Such insights remind traders of the pitfalls of emotions in trading, notably FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). The emotional aspects of trading can cause traders to make ill-informed decisions. One needs to develop the ability to discern clear patterns in the market, irrespective of external pressures.
The book also explains:
"🌊 As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that a knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. Recognizing the character of a single wave can often allow you to interpret correctly the complexities of the larger pattern."
Understanding the intricacies of wave personalities can be a game-changer. This knowledge can assist traders in correctly interpreting market trends, especially when the path seems murky.
The Four Golden Rules
Drawing from the wisdom of Frost and Prechter, here are four rules to consider:
🧘 Let the market unfold into recognizable patterns. Don't rush or force interpretations. Patiently let the market's behavior reveal itself. Only trade what is clear. It is at least as important to understand what NOT to trade as it is to understand what to trade.
🔍 Prioritize clear confirmed patterns at multiple degrees and safeguard against emotional pitfalls, especially FOMO.
⚖️ Always be aware of alternate counts. Be prepared to make decisions once a pattern gets confirmed. This is where the experience with methods like the pinball strategy becomes pivotal. It is key to be positioned in a way that allows for multiple scenarios to happen.
MARA (request): price held trend line support and price seems to try to form wave v. Within wave v, we deal with an ABC structure. Wave A seems to develop 5 waves. Price must form another high for 5 waves in wave A. However, an A-wave does not have to be a 5-wave move. Below $12 I assume that wave A formed only 3 waves. For more confidence in trend continuation higher 5 waves up in wave A would be preferred.
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Here you can check some last months PNL reports 👇👇👇
👉July PNL report
👉June PNL report
👉May PNL report
👉April PNL report
👉March PNL report
👉February PNL report
👉January PNL report
👉December PNL report
👉November PNL report 2859% ROI in the month of June inside Confidential circle. Checkout the PL sheet attached.
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GALA: another potential decline in price is currently expected, with crucial support anticipated between 1.52 and 1.55 cents.
Though a third wave might push the price to 15 cents, there's no clear sign of a bottom yet, and a third wave surge isn't the main expectation.
I currently assume a sideways triangle correction in Wave 4, leading to another dip. Any upcoming rally will be initially viewed as a wave C rally in the blue wave count, targeting between 5.4 and 7.9 cents.
AAVE: while price moved a little higher since the last signal about AAVE the structure still suggests another low. Price is now in resistance. I would need to see $65 in a 5-wave structure to have a reliable signal that a low is in place.
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RLB (request): this chart does not have a long enough chart history to allow me to provide a reliable wave count. However, price is within a price channel and an uptrend. If you like you can always trade this uptrend on the long side with a stop below the last swing low. If it gets to the upper boundary line of the channel it might lead to a 50% return, but the stop would be quite far away.
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ANT: a chart that does not show a clear trend on the larger time frames. However, price is now in resistance price has moved correctively into the resistance area, so a C-wave down is expected shortly. Price is expected to get rejected within the resistance area. A break below $2.63 would confirm that wave C is in the making.
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ETH: the triangle pattern is technically already full, but can extend as long as price stays above $1591.
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AGIX: Currently, the white wave count remains plausible. The relevant price point to watch is 15.77 cents. If prices persist below this, it might signify a transition from a wave 4 correction to a more pessimistic yellow wave count. Dipping under 15.77 cents could hint at a downtrend, possibly followed by an ABC rally in wave 2. Once below 15.77 cents, the drop can no longer be termed as wave 4. A hint of a market reversal might be a price surge above 18.94 cents, while surpassing 22.3 cents would provide a stronger affirmation.
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ETH: Price saw a notable drop today, breaking below the micro support level of 1665, which allows us to focus on two scenarios: A triangle wave (contracting triangle pattern), similar to what might be happening on the Bitcoin chart.
A WXY structure, within which price may already have topped.
I favor the triangle wave prediction over the WXY structure.
For Ethereum to display a more bullish trend, it would need to sustain a break above 1723. As of now, another drop below the 17th of August low is anticipated.
A sustained break below the level of 1626 might indicate the unfolding of the fifth wave to the downside.
While we focus much on the micro counts due to the slow price action over recent months, I just wanted to remind everyone not to forget about their core positions or potential long-term HODL positions. Last week, Bitcoin`s price action was in near record-low volatility and then broke down rapidly, possibly as reaction to the Evergrande bankruptcy news. This washed out a lot of leveraged long trades.
My perspective remains that Bitcoin has potentially reached its lowest price point in the bear market and is primed to ascend to unprecedented levels in the upcoming years. This is also the case for Ether. However, as I repeatedly warned it is not going to be an easy ride. We will have to expect difficulties along the way. Remember that I often highlighted that it is likely going to be a rocky road to new highs.
For those seeking exposure to Bitcoin and Ether, I think the strategy of dollar-cost averaging seems most useful, as we are in a long-term accumulation phase. Picking up a bit of exposure during such market liquidations often leads to positive results in a longer time frame.
While I am still leaning bullish overall for Bitcoin and Ether, I am of course cautious as both are at a major decision point. We have no confirmed low in place yet, so my view is that slow accumulation, whilst managing cash carefully, is the best approach for those who seek long-term exposure.
Remember that I view only Bitcoin and Ether as long-term portfolio assets. Stick with the big coins for the win. Only small exposure to altcoins, at least that`s my view. Most altcoin projects are just experiments and over the years I have learned to assume many altcoins will not fill in the entire count before beginning the path to all-time lows, then delisting (the crypto version of bankruptcy).
Always remember: When no one is talking about crypto, buy Bitcoin. When everyone is talking about Bitcoin, buy altcoins. When your grandmother talks about Bitcoin, sell it all.
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🇺🇸 The US dollar is one of the strongest currencies of the past 100+ years.
Yet it has lost 97% of its purchasing power since 1913.
500 days from bottom to halving 🫶
500 days post-halving action 🤌
Maybe nothing.
#Bitcoin
HBAR: price broke below the trend line and price is following our main scenario. I am watching if a low can form around $0.043.
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2859% ROI in the month of June inside Confidential circle. Checkout the PL sheet attached.
🔥🔥 PRICING (Heavy Discount)🔥🔥
Monthly- $249 (Was $699)
3 Months - $349 (Was $999)
Yearly - $499 (Was $1999)
Lifetime- $699 (Was $2999)
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Connect with the Admin here - @confidential_circle
🔥🔥🔥We recently achieved an 18x returns on a single trade on XRP using leverage. Believe it or not, we enrolled all of our confidential circle members into XRP prior to its SEC win.
In The Confidential Circle, we understand the importance of taking risks to achieve success.
We are launching a new set of programs that will enable our members to achieve the million dollar mark in the upcoming bull market and it will be only limited to our members within the confidential circle which will be forever closed this week because we want to limit the memberships.
BTC: price has now maxed out the resistance area for circle wave B. If wave d of the triangle is still unfolding price should turn down here. If not, price is likely already in wave e.
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ETH: this micro structure looks very similar to the one on the Bitcoin chart. Target for wave C of Y of wave D is $1611. Bear in mind that micro structures are very fragile.
We currently see a lot of triangles on the charts. The good thing about triangles is that it is typically the last structure before a cycle finishes, so basically a last structure before the low.
GALA: price has now formed a pretty complete looking triangle. We should see some volatility in the next few days, and a break to the downside is expected.
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OP: it is anticipated that the price might decline in the current structure as long price remains below the recent high of 1.59. While price followed the forecast nicely in recent days, there's now uncertainty about the future pattern, with two possibilities: a straightforward five wave move down, or an extended larger triangle pattern.
Immediate levels to watch include the B wave low of 1.45; breaking this could lead to a rapid drop back to around 1.16.
SOL: it looks as if wave 5 is in the making right now. This wave 5 should ideally unfold as ABC structure, so we should expect a bit of a B-wave bounce shortly.
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A whale spent 320 $ETH ($529K) to buy 640B $PEPE again 3 hrs ago.
The whale also spent 280 $ETH ($507K) to buy 500B $PEPE on June 5 and spent 253 $ETH ($481K) to buy 164B $PEPE on May 6.
The average buying price is $0.000001163.
DYDX (request): price might have completed wave 4 already. Against the January high the focus is on another bear market low. Above that level this might become a wave ii correction instead of a wave iv. Either way, the chart is bearish. It is a lifetime downtrend.
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Fund Flow Ratio and Whale Ratio
"This is a recommended indicator because it shows where to monitor (exchanges or OTC), as the characteristics change significantly from year to year."
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