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#Bitcoin Simple Strategy 🤝
1) Buy Bitcoins 500 days Before Halving
2) Hold & Do Nothing (we are here)
3) Sell 500 Days After Halving
4) Repeat
After Jupiter’s drop, we've all seen how profitable it can be to farm airdrops.
Over the last few weeks, we have shared many airdrop opportunities (some examples, here and here).
However, the market keeps giving us more opportunities, and we can’t but share them with our community.
Many of the recent airdrops we’ve shared are in the Solana ecosystem – understandably so because of Solana’s recent momentum.
However, if you love the Thorchain ecosystem, one of today’s opportunities is right up your alley.
Whatever your favourite Web3 ecosystem is, we are actively looking for opportunities and will find something in your neck of the woods soon enough.
Are you ready to farm new airdrops?
In today’s market direction, we cover BTC, ETH, SOL, RUNE, LINK and WIF.
Bitcoin faces formidable overhead resistance between $43,900 and the $44,200-$44,900 range. Its ability to overcome these technical levels could open the door towards $47,000. However, failure to push through this area of resistance raises the risk of further downside.
Ethereum tells a similar story, squeezed between $2,200 support and $2,340 resistance. The eventual breakout from this constrained range will likely set the trend for more significant price swings.
Across the board, the coming days represent a critical juncture that could determine if the market will break out emphatically or break down to new lows.
ETH
The yellow box would be the long-term buying range, between $1,979 and $2,053.
We think price could even go slightly below that yellow box. If it did, we'd really build an aggressive position.
What does this all mean for crypto? Simply put, are the macro developments that we highlighted above good or bad for crypto?
Let's first work out risk assets.
With the market pricing in rates being higher for longer, this will send Bond Yields slightly higher, which puts pressure on risk assets.
Why buy stocks when you're getting a 4.0% risk-free return by buying a US government bond?
So, following Powell, we saw Bond Yields go slightly higher and the S&P and Nasdaq sell down.
This has particularly been emphasised by big moves down in the tech companies that have actually reported relatively positively over the past few days. However, we still have Apple and others to report today and tomorrow.
But, essentially, what this means is that risk assets may struggle and may pull back in the coming months. When we look at the on-chain data, it paints a similar picture for BTC.
Therefore, we feel more strongly now that the market will see more downside in the coming months and stagnate as a best-case scenario.
How are we playing this? Currently, we are about 75% Spot and 25% USDT, but we are constantly adding USDT to build the USDT bag.
For that 75% spot, we are not choosing to sell; we'll just keep holding.
The 25% USDT and the USDT we'll add to our pot and keep building up, we will look to put to work in the market over the coming months.
Our feeling, and this is just a feeling (so we can easily be wrong), is that March/April will be the time to start really putting this capital to work by building positions gradually (so over the period) but with aggressive USDT orders.
Yesterday, we had two key reports on the macro perspective.
The first was the Quarterly Refunding Announcement from the Treasury, and the second was the Fed Meeting and Press Conference, where the Interest Rate was decided.
The Treasury is signalling more debt issuance ahead, pointing to a potential liquidity squeeze in coming months as excess reserves decline.
However, the Treasury has stated they will also start buybacks, a positive development that could delay a liquidity crunch.
In their latest statements, the Fed remained more hawkish than expected, not dovish as some had hoped – showing they are still sceptical about persistent inflation.
This macro uncertainty means risk assets like crypto will likely face continued selling pressure and volatility for a while longer.
However, we believe the current stormy conditions will create an opportunity for long-term crypto investors to accumulate positions at a discount.
As hard as markets may fall soon, the foundations are being laid for the next major crypto bull. We share our thoughts on how to position for profit.
Below are the macro data points that will move the needle for crypto this week.
Tuesday and Thursday: Earnings from big tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta)
Tuesday: JOLT's jobs data
Wednesday: QRA from Yellen at the Treasury. This is super important – this is what sparked the rally on November 23
Wednesday: Fed interest rate decision & Powell’s press conference
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls and Jobs data
In terms of potential market-moving events this week, the top candidates are if the data (Jobs data) comes in much hotter or weaker than expected. Big Tech earnings also fall into this category.
But what will most likely move the markets is if there are significant messages in the forward guidance from Powell – particularly on the back of the QRA on Wednesday morning.
For example, if Powell indicates that the Fed is considering a March rate cut, and she also talks about a tapering of QT – that will be particularly bullish for risk assets.
An early taper to QT takes some pressure off the liquidity picture, with the RRP likely to deplete in the coming months.
If we get the above, we see crypto performing relatively well this week, although we still struggle to see BTC breaking above $43,200, let alone the $44,000 horizontal resistance.
Of course, we can be wrong on this, but we feel relatively confident about this.
If we see an upside, we feel that it'll come from the altcoins rather than BTC, but again, we don't see many major breakouts occurring.
We mostly see altcoins running higher into key horizontal levels, which will be the telling point for the market in the future.
Let's see. Either way, it is a huge week for crypto, and the macro markets will likely tell us the picture as we advance for the next few months.
Looking forward to digesting it all. Stay vigilant; we still have enough time to build positions going into the halving with many macro hiccups that could give us prime entries.
Let's go!
Solana Update
Ideally, for SOL here, you want to see it continue to find support and, in the coming days, break out of the downtrend line.
A breakout of the downtrend line could see price push higher into the orange box between $105 and $108, although we feel SOL may struggle to get this kind of momentum to take price as high as that.
If price breaks down below the $79 horizontal support, then the yellow box at $59 to $65 would become the target.
If sub $65 is reached, this would most likely be a good time to start DCA'ing. $48 to $65, long-term, you likely can't go wrong.
Regarding the next move, we are siding with price breaking to the upside, but it's difficult to call.
We think the best strategy is to be positioned in SOL and to add if it dips to $59 - $65, but we are not confident enough in more major downside to short SOL at current prices.
If price gets to $105 - $108, that may be a time to consider going Short SOL – we will reassess then
Looking at the mechanics for BTC, we can see that the Funding Rate is at 0.01% (no change), which is a healthy rate, while Open Interest (OI) is still around the $16.5b mark.
BTC has a healthy leverage market from this perspective.
Interestingly, a slightly larger-than-normal liquidation level has built up at $42,000, which would be a liquidation of shorts and may drive the market slightly higher.
1- Berachain
Berachain is a novel high-performance blockchain built on Cosmos-SDK.
Despite its brand being based on a meme, Berachain raised an incredible $42M in funding from investors like Polychain Capital and has confirmed to launch its “BERA” token.
The team has recently launched their testnet “Artio”, and users, who interact with their testnet, can potentially be eligible for the airdrop.
How to participate
Time: 10-20mins
1- Go to the Berachain testnet faucet.
2- Input your wallet address in the “Wallet Address” section.
3- Prove that you’re not a bot by clicking the corresponding button.
Click on “Drip Tokens” and get Testnet tokens (you can get testnet tokens every 8hrs).
4- Now, go to Berachain’s main DEX.
5- Connect your wallet, add the Berachain-Atrio network (when you connect your MetaMask, it automatically asks to add the new network) and switch the network to the Berachain-Atrio.
6- Swap from BERA to HONEY and STGUSDC, provide liquidity and play around with the DEX.
7- After playing with the DEX, go to “HONEY” and use your STGUSDC to mint HONEY.
8- Next, play around with BERPS (make long/short trades and provide liquidity to vaults).
You can also go to BEND and supply/borrow assets.
9- Lastly, go to GALXE’s campaign page, claim points and finish incomplete tasks (if you have one).
Some notes:
->To get a role on their Discord server, you need to be human-like and active on their channel.
->You can go to their campaign page and claim 5 points daily if you use their faucet every 24 hours.
->Providing liquidity on BERPS and BEND can earn you BGT rewards.
3 exciting zero-cost airdrop opportunities for you
Many people love airdrops because they are low-risk, high-reward opportunities requiring very little capital.
Today, we have something even better. We found some potential airdrop opportunities that require ZERO capital. We are talking about testnets.
Testnets serve as sandbox environments where developers can experiment with new features, fix bugs, and test the overall stability of their blockchain projects before the official launch.
Projects often need people to use the testnet to create performance benchmarks or get feedback.
In turn, they reward people who use the testnets by airdropping tokens to them when the project is live.
By actively engaging with these testnets, you can potentially earn token rewards in the form of airdrops.
Today, we present you with three testnets with the potential for airdrops.
Let’s get started!
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#API3
The price has reacted to the resistance level of $3.500 - $3.300 for the third time and if it fails to break it, it will probably decrease again to the dynamic support.
#Ethereum is currently retesting the most important resistance!
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SOL
A little bit different. If price goes between $79-$86, we'll start adding to our bags.
If price, goes into the low $70s and the $60s, we'll aggressively add.
And if price goes into the $50s we'll try and sell our kidneys to buy it - just joking, do not do this.
We will look to buy BTC in that upper yellow box, between $33,900 and $36,400.
If we get price back here, long-term, we think it's an absolute gift.
The Quarterly Refunding Announcement from the Treasury
The quarterly refunding announcement is a significant event. In the last QRA, Yellen said that rather than issue loads of longer duration Bonds (with maturities between 10 and 30 years) like the Treasury usually does, they would issue most of the debt issuance in the front end of the curve, i.e. shorter duration Bonds - Bonds that mature in 1-12 months.
What this did is it allowed the Treasury/government in the US to keep raising debt to pay their expenses, but it wasn't issuing a load of longer duration Bonds, where the demand to buy these Bonds around the world was lacking.
Why did the Treasury do this?
Well, with demand for longer duration Bonds lacking, the Treasury couldn't issue loads of these longer duration Bonds. The fact is they wouldn't be bought up, meaning the price of these Bonds would go lower. In turn, the Yield on longer-duration Bonds would soar, meaning mortgage rates, credit card rates, etc., all go meaningfully higher. This would be too much of a tightening on the economy, and hence, the Treasury tried to avoid this by issuing shorter-duration Bonds (known as Bills - maturity of less than 12 months). Hence, as a result, we saw a rally in risk assets - including our "magic internet money" Bitcoin.
But, issuing shorter-term debt, i.e. Bills, has seen the RRP drain to $600b from $2.2t. The draining of the RRP is what's kept market liquidity so positive.
But what happens when it depletes to $0?
Result of QRA just released
The Treasury has just announced that Coupons (debt with maturity between 2-10 years) will be increased - as expected. The Treasury will also be starting buybacks in the next quarter, which is quite bullish and will help market liquidity.
But, this is expected as the RRP drains to 0, which it should over the coming months. The draining of the RRP from $2.2t to $600b has kept liquidity very positive as it offsets the QT (running off of the Balance Sheet) from the Fed.
It will now be really interesting to see how liquidity conditions change once the RRP drains to 0 and no longer offsets QT, although this is likely really pushed out further now.
A Treasury buyback should help liquidity a bit as the RRP depletes to 0. And with less Bills being issued and more Coupons being issued, this takes some pressure off the RRP in the short-term, maybe dragging out the depletion of the RRP to 0 by longer.
Conclusion on the QRA
There is likely to be a liquidity crunch at some point, but it may be pushed out to May, maybe even June now.
This is due to QT still happening. The reason is that the Fed is running down its Balance Sheet, but the running down of the RRP (look at this as excess reserves) has offset that impact.
Think about it.
The Fed ran down their Balance sheet by $65-$80b/month - liquidity withdrawal. But, the RRP drains by $100b-$120b/month, leaving you with a $40-$60b net increase in liquidity. Now, that RRP is at $600b, having previously been at $2.2trillion - a $1.6trillion inflow to markets.
The draining of the RRP is now likely delayed and pushed out further. This puts pressure on liquidity with the Fed still running QT - the running off of $65-$80b/month of Fed assets.
Overall, the above is bad for asset prices, with so much debt issuance needing to be bought up. Although pressure has been taken off the RRP somewhat as fewer Bills issued slows the RRP's depletion. This liquidity issue in the coming months may be what brings the markets lower.
In the last QRA on November 1, 2023, the forward-guided issuance was less than expected. It meant fewer than expected Coupons and Bonds would be issued, and Bills (notes with maturities of less than 12 months) would get the majority of issuance. This caused demand for the longer duration Bonds to increase, pushing Yields lower, and risk assets took off.
Less issuance and increasing Bill issuance meant the RRP would continue to be drained, which meant liquidity would stay net positive.
Hence, we've seen the rally in risk that we've seen over the prior few months. The market now expects that issuance of Coupons (notes with a maturity of between 1 and 10 years) will pick up, to offset the recent massive issuance in Bills.
Other than this, the markets will be watching the Fed for any forward guidance on QT and a taper of QT, along with any guidance on treasury buybacks. This is a form of QE. It would likely be light. But essentially, the first half of the year is more predictable with notes issuance.
We're watching out for any guidance on the taper of QT and potential treasury buyback programs that may be forward-guided for when the RRP is depleted.
This week, the crypto market saw a relief bounce, with Bitcoin edging towards the $43,900 resistance. Yet, while relief bounces play out, we don’t see significant upsides in the short term.
For BTC, we think the new overhead resistance near $44,000 presents a near-term threat.
For SOL, the technical picture played out precisely as predicted, with price cleanly breaking a downtrend line to reclaim an uptrend. But like Bitcoin, Solana faces further upside resistance.
RUNE bounced from support as expected, yet the upside appears limited by resistance around $4.78.
Finally, LINK saw a bounce from horizontal support, but it is facing a test of $15.33 resistance - failing here could see LINK revisit lower support zones.
The overall view remains cautious in the near term, but we know that the lower prices will present more attractive buying opportunities for the long term.
Pair:ETHUSDT
🔼 Side: LONG
❎ Leverage: Cross 15
💸 Entry zone:2317.15
Take Profit 1:2323.99649
Take Profit 2:2331.6037
Take Profit 3:2339.21091
Take Profit 4:2362.03253
Take Profit 5:2377.24695
⛔ Stop loss:2286.72116
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BTC may get a relief rally, but it won't breakout past $44k
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Bitwise is now the first US spot #Bitcoin ETF to publish their #BTC addresses for their holdings 👀
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Not just above, you get all the following when you join -
*The confidential circle + Crazy returns (DECEMBER was 98195% ) + Insider Whale activities + Dedicated mentor*
✅ The admins of “The confidential circle” have direct contact with the top 10 Crypto whales who are responsible for moving the markets, so the members are always aware of whether the market is going to go parabolic high or dump hard
✅ The confidential circle members receive 5-10 signals on daily basis available to noone outside the circle.
✅ The signals are short- and medium-term.
✅ Specified entry, take profit and stop loss objectives.
✅ Dedicated mentor available 24x7 via chat.
✅ Tutorials and courses for beginner traders showing everything step by step - VALUE -$8000
✅ Average monthly profits of up to 500%
✅ Cornix integration support so that you never miss any profitable trade. Your trading will get completely automated without your involvement using bots.
Connect with the Admin here - @confidential_circle