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Firstly, we have to hold our hands up here. We thought BTC might find resistance going into the $45k area; we didn’t expect it to break through so easily.
Fortunately, we are positioned and have been for a long while, but we do have our sceptical hat on that BTC is hitting $50k (30% or so shy of the all-time high) three months out from the halving - not even post-halving.
Hence, we were sceptical. We do our best for you guys, and we cannot always be right, but we try to be mostly right more than wrong and aim to know when to be more risk on than risk off.
But this last week or two of price action has surely caught us off guard.
We'll shout it out when we are right, but we will also hold our hands up when we get it wrong.
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The markets have shown tremendous strength today, with Bitcoin smashing through resistance levels and Ethereum also putting in a very positive move.
However, both BTC and ETH are entering overbought territory on the shorter timeframes, indicating they may be due for a pullback or consolidation soon.
Meanwhile, Solana has failed to keep pace with the wider altcoin market's gains. After losing its uptrend line, SOL appears vulnerable to further declines, especially if Bitcoin sees profit-taking.
One outlier bucking the overall bullishness is RUNE, which had a nice bounce from our identified support zone but now faces stiff overhead resistance.
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VRA: The chart has turned into a mess, which means the micro structures are likely going to change. I do not see any impulsive structures. The yellow scenario allows for the low in wave ii to have formed, and a break above the corrective price channel´s upper boundary line is needed to suggest that wave iii is unfolding. Wave iii has a minimum target of $0.0146. The white scenario allows for one more low and the (C)-wave has now reached the 100% extension of wave (A), which means the price is at resistance and could turn to the downside here. Overall, however, the bullish support region, as long as it holds, allows for the price to climb higher.
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💰 Bitcoin Could Hit $48K in Days, Propelled by Historic Chinese New Year Gains: 10X Research
Bitcoin (BTC) is headed towards $48,000 in the short term after its breakout fueled by a strong track record of gains around the Chinese New Year celebration, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport and founder of 10x Research. "The next few days are of paramount statistical importance as bitcoin tends to rally by +11% around Chinese New Year, starting on February 10 (Saturday)," Thielen wrote in a Thursday report.
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#API3
The price has reacted to the resistance level of $3.500 - $3.300 for the third time and if it fails to break it, it will probably decrease again to the dynamic support.
#Ethereum is currently retesting the most important resistance!
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SOL
A little bit different. If price goes between $79-$86, we'll start adding to our bags.
If price, goes into the low $70s and the $60s, we'll aggressively add.
And if price goes into the $50s we'll try and sell our kidneys to buy it - just joking, do not do this.
We will look to buy BTC in that upper yellow box, between $33,900 and $36,400.
If we get price back here, long-term, we think it's an absolute gift.
The Quarterly Refunding Announcement from the Treasury
The quarterly refunding announcement is a significant event. In the last QRA, Yellen said that rather than issue loads of longer duration Bonds (with maturities between 10 and 30 years) like the Treasury usually does, they would issue most of the debt issuance in the front end of the curve, i.e. shorter duration Bonds - Bonds that mature in 1-12 months.
What this did is it allowed the Treasury/government in the US to keep raising debt to pay their expenses, but it wasn't issuing a load of longer duration Bonds, where the demand to buy these Bonds around the world was lacking.
Why did the Treasury do this?
Well, with demand for longer duration Bonds lacking, the Treasury couldn't issue loads of these longer duration Bonds. The fact is they wouldn't be bought up, meaning the price of these Bonds would go lower. In turn, the Yield on longer-duration Bonds would soar, meaning mortgage rates, credit card rates, etc., all go meaningfully higher. This would be too much of a tightening on the economy, and hence, the Treasury tried to avoid this by issuing shorter-duration Bonds (known as Bills - maturity of less than 12 months). Hence, as a result, we saw a rally in risk assets - including our "magic internet money" Bitcoin.
But, issuing shorter-term debt, i.e. Bills, has seen the RRP drain to $600b from $2.2t. The draining of the RRP is what's kept market liquidity so positive.
But what happens when it depletes to $0?
Result of QRA just released
The Treasury has just announced that Coupons (debt with maturity between 2-10 years) will be increased - as expected. The Treasury will also be starting buybacks in the next quarter, which is quite bullish and will help market liquidity.
But, this is expected as the RRP drains to 0, which it should over the coming months. The draining of the RRP from $2.2t to $600b has kept liquidity very positive as it offsets the QT (running off of the Balance Sheet) from the Fed.
It will now be really interesting to see how liquidity conditions change once the RRP drains to 0 and no longer offsets QT, although this is likely really pushed out further now.
A Treasury buyback should help liquidity a bit as the RRP depletes to 0. And with less Bills being issued and more Coupons being issued, this takes some pressure off the RRP in the short-term, maybe dragging out the depletion of the RRP to 0 by longer.
Conclusion on the QRA
There is likely to be a liquidity crunch at some point, but it may be pushed out to May, maybe even June now.
This is due to QT still happening. The reason is that the Fed is running down its Balance Sheet, but the running down of the RRP (look at this as excess reserves) has offset that impact.
Think about it.
The Fed ran down their Balance sheet by $65-$80b/month - liquidity withdrawal. But, the RRP drains by $100b-$120b/month, leaving you with a $40-$60b net increase in liquidity. Now, that RRP is at $600b, having previously been at $2.2trillion - a $1.6trillion inflow to markets.
The draining of the RRP is now likely delayed and pushed out further. This puts pressure on liquidity with the Fed still running QT - the running off of $65-$80b/month of Fed assets.
Overall, the above is bad for asset prices, with so much debt issuance needing to be bought up. Although pressure has been taken off the RRP somewhat as fewer Bills issued slows the RRP's depletion. This liquidity issue in the coming months may be what brings the markets lower.
In the last QRA on November 1, 2023, the forward-guided issuance was less than expected. It meant fewer than expected Coupons and Bonds would be issued, and Bills (notes with maturities of less than 12 months) would get the majority of issuance. This caused demand for the longer duration Bonds to increase, pushing Yields lower, and risk assets took off.
Less issuance and increasing Bill issuance meant the RRP would continue to be drained, which meant liquidity would stay net positive.
Hence, we've seen the rally in risk that we've seen over the prior few months. The market now expects that issuance of Coupons (notes with a maturity of between 1 and 10 years) will pick up, to offset the recent massive issuance in Bills.
Other than this, the markets will be watching the Fed for any forward guidance on QT and a taper of QT, along with any guidance on treasury buybacks. This is a form of QE. It would likely be light. But essentially, the first half of the year is more predictable with notes issuance.
We're watching out for any guidance on the taper of QT and potential treasury buyback programs that may be forward-guided for when the RRP is depleted.
ETH: The price is likely working on wave 5 of (5) as mentioned in the previous update already, and a break below $2,729 would be a first indication that a top of sorts is in place. Upside targets for wave 5 of (5) are $2,799, $2,839, $2,844 and the area around $2,900. These are levels we can watch if the price extends higher.
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🥇 Bitcoin made the highest weekly close since December, 2021.
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The holdings of Bitcoin for spot ETFs have recently reached an all-time high, despite facing selling pressure from $GBTC.
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SOL: Looking at the chart structure, it becomes clear that the price is now at the top of a range. It takes a sustained break above $107/$108 for me to assume that the price is moving towards $190. It is possible that wave 2/B already formed a low in the yellow scenario, but the structure can also be interpreted as a wider flat correction in the white scenario. This means we need to be prepared for another C-wave into the lower support range between $84 and $94.88. The price level that distinguishes between the accelerated yellow scenario and an extended correction is the $95.54 level.
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[Forwarded from Parent channel]
Not just above, you get all the following when you join -
*The confidential circle + Crazy returns (January was 24645% ) + Insider Whale activities + Dedicated mentor*
✅ The admins of “The confidential circle” have direct contact with the top 10 Crypto whales who are responsible for moving the markets, so the members are always aware of whether the market is going to go parabolic high or dump hard
✅ The confidential circle members receive 5-10 signals on daily basis available to noone outside the circle.
✅ The signals are short- and medium-term.
✅ Specified entry, take profit and stop loss objectives.
✅ Dedicated mentor available 24x7 via chat.
✅ Tutorials and courses for beginner traders showing everything step by step - VALUE -$8000
✅ Average monthly profits of up to 500%
✅ Cornix integration support so that you never miss any profitable trade. Your trading will get completely automated without your involvement using bots.
#Bitcoin Simple Strategy 🤝
1) Buy Bitcoins 500 days Before Halving
2) Hold & Do Nothing (we are here)
3) Sell 500 Days After Halving
4) Repeat
After Jupiter’s drop, we've all seen how profitable it can be to farm airdrops.
Over the last few weeks, we have shared many airdrop opportunities (some examples, here and here).
However, the market keeps giving us more opportunities, and we can’t but share them with our community.
Many of the recent airdrops we’ve shared are in the Solana ecosystem – understandably so because of Solana’s recent momentum.
However, if you love the Thorchain ecosystem, one of today’s opportunities is right up your alley.
Whatever your favourite Web3 ecosystem is, we are actively looking for opportunities and will find something in your neck of the woods soon enough.
Are you ready to farm new airdrops?
In today’s market direction, we cover BTC, ETH, SOL, RUNE, LINK and WIF.
Bitcoin faces formidable overhead resistance between $43,900 and the $44,200-$44,900 range. Its ability to overcome these technical levels could open the door towards $47,000. However, failure to push through this area of resistance raises the risk of further downside.
Ethereum tells a similar story, squeezed between $2,200 support and $2,340 resistance. The eventual breakout from this constrained range will likely set the trend for more significant price swings.
Across the board, the coming days represent a critical juncture that could determine if the market will break out emphatically or break down to new lows.
ETH
The yellow box would be the long-term buying range, between $1,979 and $2,053.
We think price could even go slightly below that yellow box. If it did, we'd really build an aggressive position.
What does this all mean for crypto? Simply put, are the macro developments that we highlighted above good or bad for crypto?
Let's first work out risk assets.
With the market pricing in rates being higher for longer, this will send Bond Yields slightly higher, which puts pressure on risk assets.
Why buy stocks when you're getting a 4.0% risk-free return by buying a US government bond?
So, following Powell, we saw Bond Yields go slightly higher and the S&P and Nasdaq sell down.
This has particularly been emphasised by big moves down in the tech companies that have actually reported relatively positively over the past few days. However, we still have Apple and others to report today and tomorrow.
But, essentially, what this means is that risk assets may struggle and may pull back in the coming months. When we look at the on-chain data, it paints a similar picture for BTC.
Therefore, we feel more strongly now that the market will see more downside in the coming months and stagnate as a best-case scenario.
How are we playing this? Currently, we are about 75% Spot and 25% USDT, but we are constantly adding USDT to build the USDT bag.
For that 75% spot, we are not choosing to sell; we'll just keep holding.
The 25% USDT and the USDT we'll add to our pot and keep building up, we will look to put to work in the market over the coming months.
Our feeling, and this is just a feeling (so we can easily be wrong), is that March/April will be the time to start really putting this capital to work by building positions gradually (so over the period) but with aggressive USDT orders.
Yesterday, we had two key reports on the macro perspective.
The first was the Quarterly Refunding Announcement from the Treasury, and the second was the Fed Meeting and Press Conference, where the Interest Rate was decided.
The Treasury is signalling more debt issuance ahead, pointing to a potential liquidity squeeze in coming months as excess reserves decline.
However, the Treasury has stated they will also start buybacks, a positive development that could delay a liquidity crunch.
In their latest statements, the Fed remained more hawkish than expected, not dovish as some had hoped – showing they are still sceptical about persistent inflation.
This macro uncertainty means risk assets like crypto will likely face continued selling pressure and volatility for a while longer.
However, we believe the current stormy conditions will create an opportunity for long-term crypto investors to accumulate positions at a discount.
As hard as markets may fall soon, the foundations are being laid for the next major crypto bull. We share our thoughts on how to position for profit.
Below are the macro data points that will move the needle for crypto this week.
Tuesday and Thursday: Earnings from big tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta)
Tuesday: JOLT's jobs data
Wednesday: QRA from Yellen at the Treasury. This is super important – this is what sparked the rally on November 23
Wednesday: Fed interest rate decision & Powell’s press conference
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls and Jobs data