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🏆🏆🏆Cosmos🏆🏆🏆
Now, unlike Injective, there is another protocol which investors might be interested in analysing.
Cosmos blockchain is one network which hasn’t witnessed an all-out bullish breakout yet. This project is currently the base layer of multiple projects under the ‘trending category’ in 2024. Some of such projects include Celestia, Dymension, Injective, Akashnet, and Kujira.
After going through the above conditions, you would have developed a strong opinion or investment thesis on why a token deserves a spot in your portfolio.Now, this is where you develop a strategy for building your positions.
While a deep knowledge of technical analysis is not required, it is essential to understand market structure, long-term resistance and support, and momentum for market entry.
Hence, chart analysis is required to identify the buy-in zone after building a conviction.
Let us take two examples.
🏆🏆🏆Injective🏆🏆🏆
Injective is one asset which has gone parabolic over the past few weeks.
The aim is not to enter a project after a breakout rally. The goal is to build a position before the project breaks a major consolidation or downtrend pattern. The value discrepancy is between price action and indicators or metrics.
However, value discrepancy can vary significantly from one crypto to another.
Based on the category, different factors can be valued more than others. For example, fees generated would be an essential metric for L2s or DEXs. Similarly, for the DeFi protocol, if TVL is leading price performance, it can be a valuable conviction.
Now, for topics like DePin and Gaming, you will not find open-source datasets. Hence, their adoption or fundamentals will be measured based on partnerships, funding, testnet activity, etc.
Below are a few additional metrics to double-check for value discrepancy.
1- On-chain activity: If the price lags on-chain activity, that is always a good sign. Transaction counts, daily active users, and trading volumes are metrics that indicate that there is relevant on-chain activity on a protocol.
2- Smart money inflows: You may need to use specialized tools to find this. But if you can spot smart money inflows, it could be a good indicator that the smart money agrees with you that the token has a value discrepancy.
3- Revenue or business model: The project should be generating revenue for its services or the token should be involved in some form of utility on the network. It can be in the form of transaction fees being paid, governance, staking, etc. A good Price-to-Sales ratio also goes a long way.
4- Community: The project should also have a thriving, vocal, and growing community. If the project has a significant following, there is education around the project online, and Twitter threads are being written, which is a major plus point.
Here’s how to spot winnersThe top performers in a bull market are often a combination of both old and new tokens. Most people pay attention to the new tokens – exciting, innovative projects offering a first-mover advantage and being propelled by a strong narrative and hype. And there’s nothing wrong with that – we cover many of them here. Our most recent list includes OLAS, HMX, and DYM, among others.
But one often overlooked fact is that some old coins can also deliver an outperformance if you catch the wave of their resurgence just at the right point.
Take a good look at the chart below.
Decoding Bitcoin Ownership: Who Holds the Majority?
We've got some fresh data that paints a fascinating picture of Bitcoin ownership as of February 2024. Here's the breakdown:
👥 General Public Dominates: Individuals hold the lion's share with 11.97M BTC, representing 57% of the distributed supply. This shows the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, with 81.7 to 130.4 million people participating.
🏦 Institutional Presence: Businesses and Funds/ETFs are significant holders with 3.6% and 3.9% respectively, translating to 758K BTC held by businesses and 818K BTC by funds.
🌐 Governments Getting a Slice: State actors have accumulated 565K BTC, which is 2.7% of the total. This indicates growing recognition and adoption at the sovereign level.
⛏️ Miners Holding Strong: Miners are hodling 714K BTC, making up 3.4% of the total. They play a crucial role in the network and their holding patterns can impact market dynamics.
🔍 Satoshi's Stash: The mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto is believed to hold around 1.1M BTC, accoun...
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid is a decentralised perpetual futures exchange that aims to provide traders with a full-featured, transparent, and secure trading experience.
Recently, Hyperliquid has frequently featured in the top spot among all Perpetual DEXs. We have tried many perp DEXs, and Hyperliquid stands out with its superior UI/UX.
Our take
Even though price action has been so positive, we are not really looking to add further risk (USDT into new positions) at these prices at this stage in the cycle. You should already be heavily allocated, but if you have USDT on the side, we wouldn’t be ape’ing into this price action.
However, if there are pullbacks, even if that means prices go higher first, these pullbacks should be bought. In this kind of environment, pullbacks won't really be deeper than 10%-20%, so you're better off waiting for these kinds of dips to load more capital (USDT) in again.
At current prices, we don't look at BTC and consider it an attractive entry at $51,700. Anything sub $47k would now be attractive, but ape'ing in at this price? We'd rather wait and load up on a pullback or re-allocate into opportunities that still look attractive price-wise.
ETH and SOL, we still think, look good. SOL is our Head of Analysis’s long-term winner, and we see prices at $600/SOL, maybe even higher.
So, if you're ok buying at $115 and are happy to sit through a potential 20% or so drawdown and not panic, then all is well.
Just be aware when you ape into highs, there's a chance you could be vulnerable to a pullback.
We are off to the races.
Don’t fumble the bag!
Yesterday, we had the release of the inflation data, which came in hotter than expected.
The market reacted negatively to this as it essentially suggested that rate cuts are much further pushed out if inflation becomes more of a problem again for the FED. They can't cut rates into rising inflation. Therefore, the DXY and Bond Yields moved higher, and risk assets sold off.
However, BTC has shaken this off. You'd expect risk assets to feel some pressure with yesterday's data, yet Bitcoin has recovered price-wise and is at new yearly highs.
Alongside this, we also saw extremely positive inflows for the ETFs yesterday. We're still so early in this cycle, and despite prices being up a lot, people just don't care; they want in as they see it all going much higher. Although this is an emotion that we should be a little cautious of. It won't be up only for the next 18 months; there will be dips along the way.
This price action and response to the bad data is the first time we've seen this positivity reflected in price action really since 2021 - a real positive sign.
ETH: The price is likely working on wave 5 of (5) as mentioned in the previous update already, and a break below $2,729 would be a first indication that a top of sorts is in place. Upside targets for wave 5 of (5) are $2,799, $2,839, $2,844 and the area around $2,900. These are levels we can watch if the price extends higher.
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🥇 Bitcoin made the highest weekly close since December, 2021.
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The holdings of Bitcoin for spot ETFs have recently reached an all-time high, despite facing selling pressure from $GBTC.
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SOL: Looking at the chart structure, it becomes clear that the price is now at the top of a range. It takes a sustained break above $107/$108 for me to assume that the price is moving towards $190. It is possible that wave 2/B already formed a low in the yellow scenario, but the structure can also be interpreted as a wider flat correction in the white scenario. This means we need to be prepared for another C-wave into the lower support range between $84 and $94.88. The price level that distinguishes between the accelerated yellow scenario and an extended correction is the $95.54 level.
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Now, Injective was paired with a strong narrative from top to bottom. It is under a trending category with the “modular approach for decentralised finance” narrative. Its tokenomics is strong, it has strong on-chain activity, and the community is thriving.
Hence, once the asset underwent a breakout, it was a very easy trade to hold, and from the actionable range, an almost 4x increase in value was evident.
🏆🏆🏆Avalanche🏆🏆🏆
One current example of a coin in which a value discrepancy is possible is Avalanche.
The chart looks something like this: where the price has broken above its previous consolidation range.
Compare AVAX’s chart with the value chart from earlier in the report. Do you notice any similarities?
The stages start with a top-performing coin, getting a viscous downtrend, followed by a little less viscous downtrend, and then the gloom and doom when most people abandon the project. A no-one-cares period follows when the project could as well be dead, until the first signs of a recovery show – and then boom – it picks up, and we’re soooo back!!!!
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How to find overlooked coins with 10x to 100x potential
We are at the start of another bull market.
Would you like to be the person who turned $10k into $20k, $100k, or $1million?
The power to choose is in your hands!
But here’s the thing: you make a profit when you buy and realise it when you sell!
Let that sink in.
The price at which you buy a coin is the main factor determining whether you get a 5x, 20x, or 50x.
Today, we share alpha on improving your odds of getting the maximum upside possible when you buy a coin.
Sounds exciting?
Let’s dive in.
So, why are we talking about Hyperliquid today?
Well, the DEX is gaining popularity, but it hasn't launched its token.
More importantly, it has a points system – points farming often signals an airdrop on the horizon to reward early adopters. This points program, launched on November 1, will potentially run until April, distributing 1,000,000 points weekly.
Action plan:
1. You will need USDC on Arbitrum (you can directly withdraw USDC to Arbitrum from CEXes).
2. Go to Hyperliquid's website and deposit USDC.
3. Trade on the exchange and create volume.
4 Deposit USDC into their Hyperliquidity Provider (HLP) vault.
Tips to improve your eligibility
1. While the exact methodology for distributing points isn't public, we've observed that trading volumes over $1k earn points at approximately 1 point per $1k traded.
2. Trades under $100 seem ineligible for points. Make sure to size your trades accordingly.
3. Hold your positions for at least 10-15 minutes. It is unclear, but Hyperliquid seems to be filtering out sybils and wash-traders from the points system.
4. Try to accumulate at least 10-20 points. The more, the better. This can be challenging if you have little capital; however, you have until April to amass the points.
5. Hedge your position with other Perp DEXs with a points system (e.g. Zeta markets, Drift, Lyra, etc.). For example, you can open $1000 BTC long on Hyperliquid while also having $1000 BTC short position on Drift. In this scenario, you are holding a delta-neutral position (It doesn't matter whether the price will go up or down; you won't suffer huge losses).
6. Feel free to use the "CPRO" code to receive a 4% discount on fees.
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Airdrop season is still in full swing, offering crypto users unique opportunities to explore various protocols, demonstrate mastery, and earn lucrative rewards.
As the bull market gathers momentum, tokenless protocols will likely launch and distribute their tokens to active community members this year.
Now is the perfect time to start if you haven't positioned yourself yet.
Today, we will introduce you to 3 farming strategies that could potentially secure you airdrops from 7 different protocols.
Mid and long-term expectations for the market
On-chain wise, there are a number of indicators that suggest that the short-term is close to being overbought. Alongside this, we're three months out from a halving and only 30% or so away from the all-time highs.
It would be irregular for price to continue performing like this three months from a BTC halving. You'd expect some kind of consolidation or even a slight pullback in the coming month or two.
However, the long-term metrics still suggest we're early in the cycle, and prices aren't exhausted here.
Firstly, we have to hold our hands up here. We thought BTC might find resistance going into the $45k area; we didn’t expect it to break through so easily.
Fortunately, we are positioned and have been for a long while, but we do have our sceptical hat on that BTC is hitting $50k (30% or so shy of the all-time high) three months out from the halving - not even post-halving.
Hence, we were sceptical. We do our best for you guys, and we cannot always be right, but we try to be mostly right more than wrong and aim to know when to be more risk on than risk off.
But this last week or two of price action has surely caught us off guard.
We'll shout it out when we are right, but we will also hold our hands up when we get it wrong.
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The markets have shown tremendous strength today, with Bitcoin smashing through resistance levels and Ethereum also putting in a very positive move.
However, both BTC and ETH are entering overbought territory on the shorter timeframes, indicating they may be due for a pullback or consolidation soon.
Meanwhile, Solana has failed to keep pace with the wider altcoin market's gains. After losing its uptrend line, SOL appears vulnerable to further declines, especially if Bitcoin sees profit-taking.
One outlier bucking the overall bullishness is RUNE, which had a nice bounce from our identified support zone but now faces stiff overhead resistance.
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VRA: The chart has turned into a mess, which means the micro structures are likely going to change. I do not see any impulsive structures. The yellow scenario allows for the low in wave ii to have formed, and a break above the corrective price channel´s upper boundary line is needed to suggest that wave iii is unfolding. Wave iii has a minimum target of $0.0146. The white scenario allows for one more low and the (C)-wave has now reached the 100% extension of wave (A), which means the price is at resistance and could turn to the downside here. Overall, however, the bullish support region, as long as it holds, allows for the price to climb higher.
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💰 Bitcoin Could Hit $48K in Days, Propelled by Historic Chinese New Year Gains: 10X Research
Bitcoin (BTC) is headed towards $48,000 in the short term after its breakout fueled by a strong track record of gains around the Chinese New Year celebration, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport and founder of 10x Research. "The next few days are of paramount statistical importance as bitcoin tends to rally by +11% around Chinese New Year, starting on February 10 (Saturday)," Thielen wrote in a Thursday report.
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