203
Tokenomics
DONUT has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~220.5 million.
Inflation figures vary wildly every month, but a rough estimate is between 250-300k per month.
With a market cap of ~$5 million, DONUT leaves much wiggle room regarding upside potential.
Valuation
Now, the issue with token-specific subreddits is that, if anything, r/ethtrader members are more likely to buy ETH or Ethereum-related tokens.
Even more likely, they'll sell DONUT rewards to buy that ETH. As such, we'll have to reduce our expectations.
The above is a recent comment made by one of the r/ethtraders - but it also shows the current state of the subreddit.
Now, imagine the sentiment he's complaining about, but there are 3/4/5 times more members in there shilling DONUT.
Therefore, although we've got a lower projection for DONUT, we still believe it can reach as high as $200 million this year.
This places DONUT at a price of ~$0.90 from a current price of $0.023, a ~40x from here.
Technical analysis
MOON rallied close to 600% in a 24-day period between February 23 and March 17, reaching an all-time high of $0.67.
Over the past three days, the token has undergone a healthy correction to $0.39. Currently, MOON is trying to recover from the support range of $0.39-$0.29, but prolonged consolidation in this range is possible. Fibonacci's golden zone of 0.5-0.618 lies between this range, so structurally, MOON should bounce from this range. The Relative Strength Index has also undergone a reset, falling under the overbought zone. While this indicates a subsiding bullish pressure, it allows the market to breathe and prepare for a second leg.
Clearly visible are spikes in 2017 and 2021 - we have no reason to believe that 2024 will be any different.
This is the case across most crypto-related subreddits.
Many of these subreddits have quality content, which keeps people engaged.
What do you do when you're part of a community of like-minded people who make you laugh and provide helpful information on demand?
You buy the token - and there's the thesis.
There's a high likelihood these new degens will buy the official token for their subreddit when we hit the "buy anything" stage of euphoria.
All of the following tokens have the same general characteristics, with the key metric being the potential for the subreddit to record a surge in subscriber growth.
Reddit - a meme paradise
Most of you will be aware of Reddit. However, what's not too often spoken about is the scale of the platform. So, here's some figures:
Seventy million daily active users.
30+ billion monthly views across all content.
In 2021, Reddit was valued at $10 billion.
Reddit generated $810 million in ad revenue last year.
On the surface, for crypto people, Twitter/X seems to be the place to be for all things crypto. But that doesn't do Reddit justice—it's where the masses go to discuss (a generous term for what happens on Reddit) crypto in an ordered forum.
Popular subreddits include r/CryptoCurrency, r/ethtrader, r/Dogecoin, but hundreds of others exist. The top subs have millions of followers - and this is where we potentially capitalise.
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The Fed will follow. Opt out with #Bitcoin
A quick primer on AI x Crypto
We have already seen massive gains in a board of AI tokens, but is there any more potential?
To be frank, crypto AI is still small. The total market capitalisation of AI-related tokens is just over $40b. It is nothing compared to the projected $10+ trillion capitalisation.
What that means is that there is still a massive upside in crypto.
If you are bullish on AI, you likely have a similar stance on GPUs, as AI applications demand substantial computational power. Nevertheless, the current scarcity of GPUs impedes the advancement of AI applications. Researchers, institutions, and individuals don't have access to a cheap way of training their AI models.
In 2-3 years, if the demand for AI continues to surge, the need for GPUs will grow even more significantly. This disproportionate increase in GPU demand could be attributed to the expanding complexity and sophistication of AI models, which necessitate higher computational resources.
As AI becomes more deeply integrated into our daily lives, the need for GPUs will only continue to grow.
Currently, several centralised players are trying to tackle the problem (E.g. Nvidia, Microsoft)
However, decentralised DePin platforms can offer better alternatives that are cheaper and more innovative.
Therefore, we remain extra bullish on decentralised compute providers, especially on assets showing incredible strength.
We present you with a deep dive into the asset that has been making rounds on our trading floor.
The Solana ecosystem has been ripping in adoption and price performance recently.
Understandably, the network offers cheap transactions, a great UX, and astonishing speed. Many projects in the Solana ecosystem—from DEXs to meme coins—have shown strength and rewarded investors with gains.
AI is another winning narrative. AI projects became interesting after ChatGPT launched, and AI coins became popular after OpenAI introduced Sora.
The potential of AI to significantly impact our daily lives has captured the interest of investors.
Today, we will dive deep into a project trying to solve one of the main blockers in the development of AI.
Unsurprisingly, this project is also on Solana. So, can this project combine Solana's winning narrative with the AI narrative to deliver impressive gains in this bull run?
Let's find out.
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Arbitrum has been grabbing the headlines recently, but not for all the right reasons.
The L2 scaling protocol is bracing its community for a massive token unlock on March 16. 1.1 billion ARB tokens will be distributed to the project’s team, advisors and investors, raising the circulating supply by 87%.
1.1 billion ARB tokens are currently valued at over $2.4 billion. The common consensus in the market is that the unlock event will cascade selling pressure on ARB’s price. Yet, nothing is certain at the moment.
In this market update, we will examine a few scenarios and identify whether ARB is actually going to face a potential sell-off period after the unlock event.
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GH0ST was the first project to use the new SPL-22 token standard. It launched as a proof of concept, championing the idea of making fair token launches even fairer.
The collection, consisting of 21,000 NFTs, each holding 1000 GH0ST tokens, was launched to showcase the capabilities of this new token standard.
Removing the need for secondary infrastructure and token extensions (also known as Token2022, from which SPL-22 is derived) significantly reduces minting costs, as NFT mints no longer have to transact using Metaplex on mint.
Additionally, adding a built-in fee to each mint enhances the user experience for new minters and their relationship with the project. The funds from this fee go directly to the token LP, increasing the liquidity available for trading new tokens immediately.
The beauty is that, through SPL-22, all token launches, whether NFTs or fungible tokens, can be executed similarly by changing a few parameters (fee %, etc.).
In terms of tokenomics, GH0ST has an FDV of $4.1 million. If FluxBeam is the flagship DEX, GH0ST is the pioneer coin of SPL-22.
Here's the contract address for GH0ST - HbxiDXQxBKMNJqDsTavQE7LVwrTR36wjV2EaYEqUw6qH
Analysis
Straight forward for Ghost.
Price action has been dead for a while, but the token is continuously bouncing from the order block, from which it initially skyrocketed. Now, technically, the green box is a good range to build a position, i.e., between 0.066 and $0.17. Trading volume is currently 10% of the total market cap, meaning it can pump hard if it pumps now.
Price target
Given its novel status, from the current price of $0.194, we anticipate GH0ST reclaiming all-time highs of around $1.2 as a base case.
This places the FDV at $25.2 million - 6.2x from the current prices.
They launched a free-use protocol without a token, which is unfortunate. Although we will still put in volume in the off-chance they will do an airdrop in the future.
FluxBeam being the main port of call for those trading SPL-22 tokens means that, for now, we can use their stats as a health gauge for this sector.
The TVL stats back up the hype - zero to hero in a few months.
In addition to their DEX, they launched a Telegram trading bot called FluxBot and a FLUXB token.
FLUXB is an attractive by-proxy token instead of a FluxBeam token. Solana is currently promoting SPL-22 adoption, and FluxBot is a triple-fold bet on Telegram trading bots, SPL-22, and FluxBeam DEX.
However, with an FDV of ~$50 million, there are potentially better places at the moment to allocate capital.
But if SPL-22 continues down this path, FLUXB will be right up there at the top of the food chain.
Here's the contract address for FLUXB if this sounds like a bet you'll want to place. FLUXBmPhT3Fd1EDVFdg46YREqHBeNypn1h4EbnTzWE...
Solana has been tearing it up
Ethereum's ERC-404 is a new token standard that allows an asset to be concurrently fungible and non-fungible.
Many ecosystems have implemented this new standard (their version) on their chains.
Never to be left behind, Solana's version of this new token standard is the SPL-22 standard.
Now, we all know Solana is the high-tech hub of crypto. With SOL ripping through the charts, it makes sense that Solana's iteration - SPL-22 - has been creating the most traction among this new class of assets.
We are still early
The sector is currently dominated by NFT-like projects at face value.
If you take these projects at face value, they look like any other Solana NFT launch. No one cares about the tech—until the price moves.
We haven't seen much action in the NFT space in general, so the performance of SPL-22 tokens has been lacklustre.
However, that is precisely why we are covering them - brand new sector and brand new tech backed by Solana.
YOU ARE EARLY!!!
Let's dive in!
Ambit Finance
Ambit Finance is a new cross-chain DeFi protocol backed by Binance Labs that aims to revolutionise the DeFi space by offering a comprehensive and user-centric platform. The project has raised $4.5 million in funding.
The token has been confirmed, and the actions needed are pretty straightforward.
Here is what to do (Time: 10 mins; Capital: $100-$500).
Action plan:
Go to Ambit Finance and connect your wallet (BSC chain)
You will need some USDT on the BSC chain. Deposit above $100, better $500.
You can deposit other assets as well. E.g., BTCB, BNB
Borrow USDT for max qualification (Optional)
You can combine farming Ambit with farming Kinza: Deposit BTCB in Kinza, borrow BTCB in Kinza, Supply borrowed BTC to Ambit, Borrow USDT from Ambit, Supply USDT to Kinza.
You should be careful of liquidations, not borrow too much, and be conservative.
DONUT (r/ethtrader)
Hot on the heels of MOON comes DONUT, the community token of the subreddit equivalent of an Ethereum degen paradise.
This sub is more focused on discussing developments in that ecosystem, so it has fewer subscribers as a natural result.
With just over 2.2 million subscribers, r/ethtrader is one of the more active communities owing to the "maxi" mindset amongst many of its followers. I.e. everyone has an opinion, and everyone wants to share it - it's essentially a huge echo chamber, as all subreddits usually are.
Still, as Ethereum has the second-largest market cap, and with an Ethereum ETF on the horizon, this token could do well.
MOON (r/CryptoCurrency)
MOON is the community token for the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit, which has over 7.6 million members and is one of the most active subreddits on the site.
At launch, MOON was distributed to all r/CryptoCurrency users based on the amount of karma they had accrued on the subreddit up to that point. The token was originally launched as an ERC-20 token but has been ported to Arbitrum, making the token much more accessible.
In terms of utility, there's really not a lot. It's a SocialFi token, meaning that r/Cryptocurrency users can tip people MOONs for a good post/comment, etc.
This adds value to the community and drives engagement - people post for clout most of the time, and MOON adds the "steroids" factor.
If we call "RedditFi" a sector, MOON would be Bitcoin—it has the largest subscriber count and the highest market cap.
Tokenomics
There are currently 80.6 million MOONs circulating, with an uncapped supply.
The inflation rate is around 900k MOON per month (rewards paid for in...
The thesis
Reddit decided to go public, which means they're selling shares on Thursday. Raising at a valuation of $6.5 billion, many are viewing this as a low-ball valuation considering previous estimates ($10 billion in 2021), and so the IPO is as much as five times oversubscribed, if not more.
Naturally, investors in TradFi will have a reason to monitor Reddit's performance metrics as they do with other stocks. Essentially, the platform debuts on Wall Street - and we know that's where all the big money is. Therefore, Reddit will start appearing in investment magazines, and without spending a penny on marketing, a whole new market of users will be opened up.
Boomers will be all, "What's this Reddit stock I keep hearing about?" etc. You know how it is.
Reddit will appear in the news. By proxy, this will result in more sign-ups and engagement, naturally.
But we're not here to discuss stocks.
We're a couple of months into a bull market, and we've already seen a huge influx of new degens entering the m...
Reddit, one of the largest social media platforms on the planet, is going public.
The IPO is happening on Thursday, and according to early reports, it is more than five times oversubscribed.
Going public means retail investors can now participate in the upside – but we are talking about a stock here, not crypto.
Interestingly, some of the largest blockchain communities exist on Reddit.
So, while there isn't a way to get direct exposure to Reddit on-chain, the question is, "How can we participate in Reddit's potential upside?"
Well, it turns out that some of the communities have tokens – and their tokens could serve as proxies providing pseudo-exposure to Reddit's potential upside.
What does these look like?
Let's dive in!
TLDR
Reddit, one of the largest social media platforms, is going public through an already highly oversubscribed IPO.
The IPO will bring mainstream attention to Reddit and likely drive significant new user growth.
Many major crypto communities exist on Reddit in the form of large, active subreddits.
These subreddits have their own tokens that could see massive upside if new users flock to them post-IPO
Three tokens tied to subreddits with millions of members are projected to see upside potential of 31x, 40x, and 64x, respectively.
While speculative, these tokens offer the potential for outsized gains by providing proxy exposure to Reddit's growth.
Nosana
Nosana is a decentralised crowd-computing platform powered by the Solana Network. It aims to revolutionise how software automation pipelines are executed using community-contributed compute resources to run tasks for open-source projects and other users.
We have already discussed the shortage of GPUs and projects that are trying to solve them.
Nosana also addresses the global GPU shortage problem by creating a decentralised GPU compute grid. This grid allows anyone with an idle GPU to contribute resources to the network and earn rewards.
By leveraging the power of idle GPUs, Nosana aims to provide affordable and efficient GPU resources for running AI workloads without the overhead of traditional cloud solutions. This approach helps alleviate the strain on the GPU supply chain and offers a more sustainable and cost-effective solution for users needing GPU resources.
As we can see, the approach taken by Nosana is slightly different from that of IO.net.
Nosana received a grant from the Solana Foundation and has a decent list of backers.
TLDR
The development of AI will require cheap and accessible computing power.
This project is a decentralised crowd-computing platform powered by the Solana network.
A surge in demand for compute has led to a rise in positive price for this token.
There's a potential 20x upside as the demand for compute continues to increase and AI applications go mainstream.
BITCOIN WEEKLY TIME FRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS🔔
Bitcoin recently broke its previous all-time high of $69,028 and reached $73,773.
Currently trading above the strong support zone of $64,500 to $66,300, which is considered a very strong support zone.
Weekly closing today, Bitcoin needs to maintain its position above the mentioned support zone.
Two scenarios are considered:
If this week's candle closes above $64,500, a bullish move toward $94,500 is anticipated in the upcoming week.
If it closes below the support, there's a possibility of dropping to $38,500 to $40,000.
The question arises: whether the drop occur before or after the halving event?
It's advisable to be prepared for a potential drop before the halving, as historically, the market tends to shake out less experienced traders before the real bull run begins.
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Arbitrum has been grabbing the headlines recently, but not for all the right reasons.
The L2 scaling protocol is bracing its community for a massive token unlock on March 16. 1.1 billion ARB tokens will be distributed to the project’s team, advisors and investors, raising the circulating supply by 87%.
1.1 billion ARB tokens are currently valued at over $2.4 billion. The common consensus in the market is that the unlock event will cascade selling pressure on ARB’s price. Yet, nothing is certain at the moment.
In this market update, we will examine a few scenarios and identify whether ARB is actually going to face a potential sell-off period after the unlock event.
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💥BREAKING: #Bitcoin just flipped Silver in market cap.
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Price target
Considering FLUXB is consolidating, we'll take the $0.07 level (1st retest range) as the entry price.
This equates to a $35 million FDV.
Based on sustained FluxBeam TVL growth at the same rate (or better), a reasonable valuation for FLUXB is around the $200 million FDV region. This seems low, but ultimately, it's a token related to the FluxBeam DEX, not the actual DEX token.
This relates to a price of $0.4 per FLUXB.
Entering FLUXB at $0.07 gives you a reasonable shot at a 6x upside.
FluxBeam
FluxBeam is the decentralised exchange with the most SPL-22 activity right now. It was the flag carrier for the Token2022 standard and is now the flag carrier for the new SPL-22 standard.
Built during the bear period in 2023, the FluxBeam team saw a problem, got their heads down, and fixed it.
Many people have PTSD from investing in NFTs and gaming tokens last cycle – the jpegs jokes are still running on crypto Twitter.
Fair play - most projects promised the world and delivered less than nothing.
But there's a new kid in that neighbourhood: ERC-404 tokens and, of course, the Solana variant - SPL-22.
Our thesis is simple: people will want to flex their WIF gains at some point; obscenely priced NFTs are the usual method.
But this time around, you might be able to profit from the flex without actually flexing.
TLDR
SPL-22 is a new token standard on Solana that combines fungible and non-fungible tokens in novel ways.
While still very early, SPL-22 is being hyped as Solana's potential "next narrative" that could revive interest in GameFi and NFTs.
The report profiles four "early bets" on different use cases and opportunities within the SPL-22 ecosystem.
One project is a token tied to the current leading DEX for trading SPL-22 tokens.
Another was the first-ever project utilising SPL-22, acting as an initial proof-of-concept.
A hybrid protocol exemplifies the symbiotic token/NFT dynamic enabled by SPL-22's model.
A gamified project leans into the reminting capabilities of switching between SPL-22 tokens and NFTs.
Hyperlane
Hyperlane is a groundbreaking interoperability protocol designed to connect different blockchains seamlessly. It acts as a bridge, allowing diverse blockchain networks to communicate without compromising their unique features and security.
With Hyperlane, developers can build Interchain Applications that abstract away the complexity of interchain interactions and serve users on any connected chain.
The protocol is tokenless and has raised $18.5m. There are rumours that the interoperability sector will be big in airdrops in 2024.
Therefore, here is the action plan (Time: 10-15mins; Capital: $100; can be more if for more volume)
Action plan:
Go to Merkly and connect your wallet.
Mint NFTs and bridge NFTs between chains. You can also choose the TurboBridge, which will allow you to make many transactions in batches, but it is more expensive.
Go to Neutron Bridge and connect your Cosmos wallet (E.g. Kelp) and EVM wallet (E.g. Metamask).
Bridge TIA from Cosmos to Manta back and forth (You need to buy TIA from CEXs like Binance and withdraw it to your Cosmos wallet).
More volume, more transactions, and more consistency will increase your chances.