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Let's recap what Jupiter offers as a key infrastructure layer for Solana.
DEX aggregator (Swaps)
The core of the Jupiter platform is the DEX aggregator. It focuses on providing the best trading experience for Solana users. The primary function is aggregating liquidity from various DEXs and automated market makers (AMMs) such as Raydium, Serum, Orca, Saber, and others to offer users the best token swap prices and routes.
Using Jupiter's DEX aggregator for normal swaps is free of charge and probably one of the best spot trading experiences in the DeFi.
Limit orders
Jupiter's limit orders allow you to buy or sell any token pair according to your specified price limit. They provide the easiest way to place limit orders on Solana, offering the widest selection of token pairs and leveraging all the available liquidity across the entire Solana ecosystem.
Jupiter charges 0.2% fees on all limit orders.
Dollar-cost-averaging (DCA)
The DCA feature on Jupiter allows you to set a fixed interval and period for your investments, automatically buying your tokens for you. This is a great option for those without time to watch the charts all day. This is a great feature for onboarding many new users on-chain. Before Jupiter, there wasn't a DEX with a DCA feature that could mimic the CEX-like experience.
Jupiter charges 0.1% on DCA order completion.
Bullish on Solana? Don't Ignore this rising star
This time last year, many people were worried that Solana was on its way out. Fast forward to today, and it's clear those fears were premature.
Solana is not just surviving; it's thriving, thanks, in part, to the innovative projects that it hosts.
In this report, we take a closer look at a pivotal piece of the Solana ecosystem. It is hard to be bullish on Solana without being bullish on this project.
This project is the heart and soul of Solana, and if Solana lives up to expectations in the 2024/2025 bull run, this project will be one of the top performers in this season.
Let's dive in!
TLDR
Jupiter is a decentralised swap aggregator and an important infrastructure for the Solana ecosystem.
Volumes are very impressive and have tripled since we last covered it.
It has a launchpad with over 20 projects wanting to be listed.
We remain bullish on JUP and expect it to perform well in line with SOL.
On-chain and trading indicator metrics
We will keep this section shorter.
We have covered in prior updates that some of the on-chain and Trading Indicators have been in overheated/overbought territory for a while, which has historically seen them pull back from this area.
This would likely mean a deep pullback in prices or a period of consolidation. This may mean that Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $69k for a time that allows these metrics some time to cool off before the next potential leg higher.
We would see this as bullish for the market if there were 2 to 6 weeks where prices remained rangebound and, therefore, reset these indicators. It's important to remember that there must be periods of consolidation, even boredom, to have a sustained move higher.
Secondly, we have been closely focusing on the market mechanics. We've seen very high Funding Rates and high Open Interest, indicating that there's a large leverage build-up with the bias to be Long. We're now seeing that despite Open Interest being 10% off from its highs, funding has reset considerably, closer to that 0.01% level (a far healthier level).
This shows a rebalancing in positioning, which was needed and a reason we have been less risk-on in the prior few weeks.
Look at the Binance pairs below. They are all in the 0.01-0.02% territory—this is much better.
The Fed, Powell and the markets' reaction
Going into the FOMC and Powell's Press Conference, the key things we were looking for were whether there was a change in the Dot Plot from 3 interest rate cuts down to 2 rate cuts in 2024 and whether there would be talk of a reduction in QT, i.e., reducing the runoff of the Fed's Balance Sheet each month.
The Dot Plot remained the same, with three interest rate cuts in 2024. However, the Fed admitted that it saw stronger economic growth, strong employment, and slightly higher inflation than initially suggested in its Dot Plot in December 2023.
So, overall, they've recognised that inflation may be more difficult to get down to their 2% mandated target, yet they've maintained 3 interest rate cuts.
Surely, you taper this back to 2 interest rate cuts if you see inflation not smoothly coming down to target? The reason is that if the Interest rate is not as restrictive as the Fed thinks it is (it's not squashing growth or employment or the inflation rate as much as they'd like), then you can't cut interest rates and make the rate even less restrictive otherwise you'll have an inflation problem again.
The Bond market recognises this, which is why Yields are flat/up today—they're not buying that the Fed will cut three times this year. How can they work with an economy that is as strong as it is?
The rate needs to remain restrictive (higher for longer), particularly with a strong economy, if they want the inflation rate to come down. If the Bond market bought that there would be 3 interest rate cuts this year, it would have rallied, i.e., Yields would have fallen substantially. Yet they're flat/higher...
Alongside this, Powell brought up QT (the Fed running off its Balance Sheet) and suggested that they may begin to taper the runoff, i.e., sell (in this case mature) fewer assets each month.
This is a net positive for liquidity. Perhaps the reason for this is that the Reverse Repo Programme is drawing down to 0, having been at $2.5 trillion two years ago. This has been over a $2 trillion stimulus to markets over this period.
The fact that Powell brought this up indicates that the committee (the FOMC) had discussed it and may look to introduce this sooner rather than later. Powell suggested that the Fed were looking to taper to prolong QT by doing less each month but dragging out the process for longer.
Again, perhaps this is another story that the bond market just isn't buying; hence, yields are flat/up.
🇺🇸 The US government made 2.4 X on 💰BTC
CryptoQuant CEO announced that the US government is holding 210,392 BTC seized from all sorts of criminals and these assets are currently making an unrealized gain of x2.4.
Their value exceeds $14 billion.👀
Technical analysis
BRICK experienced a 50% drop from $0.24 to $0.12. However, on the daily chart, the price is recovering with a 12% rise.
Fundamentally, BRICK has followed a traditional resistance-support-based price action, and it is currently retracing from a long-term resistance that turned support at $0.118. Another positive confluence to the re-test is that the support of $0.118 is coupled with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line.
Strong demand here may allow BRICK to gradually recover near its recent high of $0.24. BRICK represented a decent trading volume of over $600,000 for its $9 million market cap.
Tokenomics
BRICK has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~64 million.
Inflation figures are unclear, but we believe that BRICK is modelled after MOON.
With a market cap of ~$ $7.8 million, there's a clear disparity between Fortnite's popularity, its subreddit community size, and that low market cap.
Technical analysis
DONUT has experienced a strong correction of around 68% after reaching a high of $0.06 on March 12. It is currently at around $0.02, with minor recovery in play.
The long-term accumulation is between $0.012 and $0.004, but bids can be placed at the confluence of 100-ema and 200-ema, as presented in the chart. This has acted as bullish support in 2024.
One caution to be noted is DONUT's low trading volume of only $132,000 for a market cap of $4.4 million.
It is not the worst, but it should have been higher for a trending token.
DONUT (r/ethtrader)
Hot on the heels of MOON comes DONUT, the community token of the subreddit equivalent of an Ethereum degen paradise.
This sub is more focused on discussing developments in that ecosystem, so it has fewer subscribers as a natural result.
With just over 2.2 million subscribers, r/ethtrader is one of the more active communities owing to the "maxi" mindset amongst many of its followers. I.e. everyone has an opinion, and everyone wants to share it - it's essentially a huge echo chamber, as all subreddits usually are.
Still, as Ethereum has the second-largest market cap, and with an Ethereum ETF on the horizon, this token could do well.
MOON (r/CryptoCurrency)
MOON is the community token for the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit, which has over 7.6 million members and is one of the most active subreddits on the site.
At launch, MOON was distributed to all r/CryptoCurrency users based on the amount of karma they had accrued on the subreddit up to that point. The token was originally launched as an ERC-20 token but has been ported to Arbitrum, making the token much more accessible.
In terms of utility, there's really not a lot. It's a SocialFi token, meaning that r/Cryptocurrency users can tip people MOONs for a good post/comment, etc.
This adds value to the community and drives engagement - people post for clout most of the time, and MOON adds the "steroids" factor.
If we call "RedditFi" a sector, MOON would be Bitcoin—it has the largest subscriber count and the highest market cap.
Tokenomics
There are currently 80.6 million MOONs circulating, with an uncapped supply.
The inflation rate is around 900k MOON per month (rewards paid for in...
The thesis
Reddit decided to go public, which means they're selling shares on Thursday. Raising at a valuation of $6.5 billion, many are viewing this as a low-ball valuation considering previous estimates ($10 billion in 2021), and so the IPO is as much as five times oversubscribed, if not more.
Naturally, investors in TradFi will have a reason to monitor Reddit's performance metrics as they do with other stocks. Essentially, the platform debuts on Wall Street - and we know that's where all the big money is. Therefore, Reddit will start appearing in investment magazines, and without spending a penny on marketing, a whole new market of users will be opened up.
Boomers will be all, "What's this Reddit stock I keep hearing about?" etc. You know how it is.
Reddit will appear in the news. By proxy, this will result in more sign-ups and engagement, naturally.
But we're not here to discuss stocks.
We're a couple of months into a bull market, and we've already seen a huge influx of new degens entering the m...
Reddit, one of the largest social media platforms on the planet, is going public.
The IPO is happening on Thursday, and according to early reports, it is more than five times oversubscribed.
Going public means retail investors can now participate in the upside – but we are talking about a stock here, not crypto.
Interestingly, some of the largest blockchain communities exist on Reddit.
So, while there isn't a way to get direct exposure to Reddit on-chain, the question is, "How can we participate in Reddit's potential upside?"
Well, it turns out that some of the communities have tokens – and their tokens could serve as proxies providing pseudo-exposure to Reddit's potential upside.
What does these look like?
Let's dive in!
TLDR
Reddit, one of the largest social media platforms, is going public through an already highly oversubscribed IPO.
The IPO will bring mainstream attention to Reddit and likely drive significant new user growth.
Many major crypto communities exist on Reddit in the form of large, active subreddits.
These subreddits have their own tokens that could see massive upside if new users flock to them post-IPO
Three tokens tied to subreddits with millions of members are projected to see upside potential of 31x, 40x, and 64x, respectively.
While speculative, these tokens offer the potential for outsized gains by providing proxy exposure to Reddit's growth.
Nosana
Nosana is a decentralised crowd-computing platform powered by the Solana Network. It aims to revolutionise how software automation pipelines are executed using community-contributed compute resources to run tasks for open-source projects and other users.
We have already discussed the shortage of GPUs and projects that are trying to solve them.
Nosana also addresses the global GPU shortage problem by creating a decentralised GPU compute grid. This grid allows anyone with an idle GPU to contribute resources to the network and earn rewards.
By leveraging the power of idle GPUs, Nosana aims to provide affordable and efficient GPU resources for running AI workloads without the overhead of traditional cloud solutions. This approach helps alleviate the strain on the GPU supply chain and offers a more sustainable and cost-effective solution for users needing GPU resources.
As we can see, the approach taken by Nosana is slightly different from that of IO.net.
Nosana received a grant from the Solana Foundation and has a decent list of backers.
TLDR
The development of AI will require cheap and accessible computing power.
This project is a decentralised crowd-computing platform powered by the Solana network.
A surge in demand for compute has led to a rise in positive price for this token.
There's a potential 20x upside as the demand for compute continues to increase and AI applications go mainstream.
BITCOIN WEEKLY TIME FRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS🔔
Bitcoin recently broke its previous all-time high of $69,028 and reached $73,773.
Currently trading above the strong support zone of $64,500 to $66,300, which is considered a very strong support zone.
Weekly closing today, Bitcoin needs to maintain its position above the mentioned support zone.
Two scenarios are considered:
If this week's candle closes above $64,500, a bullish move toward $94,500 is anticipated in the upcoming week.
If it closes below the support, there's a possibility of dropping to $38,500 to $40,000.
The question arises: whether the drop occur before or after the halving event?
It's advisable to be prepared for a potential drop before the halving, as historically, the market tends to shake out less experienced traders before the real bull run begins.
Reintroducing Jupiter
For most of our community members, Jupiter probably doesn't need an introduction. We all know and love using Jupiter when interacting with the Solana ecosystem.
For people new to Solana, Jupiter is a decentralised swap aggregator and an important piece of infrastructure for the Solana ecosystem. It aims to provide the best price, token selection, and user experience for all users and developers.
It serves as a key liquidity aggregator, offering the widest range of tokens and the best route discovery between any token pair on the Solana network.
We've previously covered Jupiter extensively here and provided an update just before its token launch.
⚡️ JUST IN: Over 67% of all #Bitcoin💰 has not moved in the last year 👀
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Markets' reaction
Personally (Tom), I see Powell and the Fed as having been overly dovish yesterday, and with further thought, I believe they've shown their hand - they want rate cuts.
They acknowledged stronger economic growth and a stronger labour market, and they expect inflation to be higher than previously anticipated over the next 18 months. Yet they stick with 3 rate cuts rather than 2. Alongside this, in the Press Conference, Powell was asked about;
the very loose financial conditions, and he didn't bite back = dovish.
Hotter than expected January and February inflation points, Powell somewhat dismissed it as "a bumpy ride down to 2% inflation" = dovish.
Dismissive of the tapering to the Balance Sheet = dovish.
Overall, I (Tom) see this as a Fed with a bias to cut - good for risk assets/Crypto - and a Fed that is now perhaps tolerant of a 2-3% inflation rate rather than a strict 2% inflation rate. But, they would never outright say this.
Overall, the above is good for risk assets in the short and medium term but less so in the long term.
Bitcoin slows down as on-chain data hints at a ranging market
Following yesterday's FOMC and Powell Press Conference, markets ripped higher.
However, the "smarter" markets, such as the Bond market, aren't really buying into the Fed's narrative. This could have a longer-term implication for risk assets/crypto.
We have also laid out what we expect the environment to be like in the coming months and how we're looking to play it.
Let's dive into it below.
TLDR
1. Markets rallied after the Fed signalled potential rate cuts in 2024, but bond yields suggest scepticism over the Fed's dovish stance.
2. On-chain metrics and trading indicators have become overheated, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation period for crypto prices.
3. Bitcoin could trade rangebound between $60k and $69k for 2-8 weeks to allow indicators to reset before the next bullish leg higher.
4. Big-cap crypto indexes are facing resistance, supporting the case for some consolidation before attempting fresh breakouts.
5. The overall outlook remains bullish, with any pullbacks seen as buying opportunities ahead of the next upswing.
How to buy
MOON
MOON is available on the following centralised exchanges:
1. Kraken
2. CoinEx
3. Crypto.com
Additionally, you can get MOON directly on-chain via Arbitrum Nova.
First, you need to bridge ETH (or another asset) with Arbitrum Nova.
MOON can then be purchased via RCPSwap.
DONUT
DONUT is not on any CEX, but you can find it on UNISwap.
BRICK
BRICK is available on the following centralised exchanges:
1. Kraken
2. Gate.io
3. CoinEx
4. Crypto.com
Additionally, it can be found on RCPSwap on Arbitrum Nova (same process as MOON)
Valuation
Considering the longevity Fortnite has already displayed, we envision the subscriber count on the subreddit will increase continuously in the foreseeable future.
It's important to note that BRICK is not in any way endorsed by Fortnite or EpicGames.
As interactions increase, BRICK comes to the forefront as more subscribers get paid and become more knowledgeable about the sub and the token.
Therefore, we think that BRICK can reach a $500 million market cap, considering the same mechanics as the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit.
People have less reason to sell unless they want to make a quick buck from rewards.
With that valuation in mind, this sets the target at $7.80 per BRICK, a 64x from the current price of $0.12
BRICK (r/FortNiteBR)
This one is a bit different. We're all aware of Fortnite (if you aren't, you've been living in another dimension where Fortnite was never created).
Although it's a game and not a crypto project, we cannot forget the community—standing at over 4.1 million members.
FortNiteBR is fast becoming one of the largest communities on Reddit thanks to the EpicGames marketing-industrial complex.
BRICK is their subreddit community token and operates in exactly the same way as MOON and DONUT.
The key here is that many Fortnite players will spend hundreds of dollars on skins. Why not a community token related to Fortnite?
Speculators are even more likely to buy BRICKs because they've heard of Fortnite - again, who hasn't?
Tokenomics
DONUT has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~220.5 million.
Inflation figures vary wildly every month, but a rough estimate is between 250-300k per month.
With a market cap of ~$5 million, DONUT leaves much wiggle room regarding upside potential.
Valuation
Now, the issue with token-specific subreddits is that, if anything, r/ethtrader members are more likely to buy ETH or Ethereum-related tokens.
Even more likely, they'll sell DONUT rewards to buy that ETH. As such, we'll have to reduce our expectations.
The above is a recent comment made by one of the r/ethtraders - but it also shows the current state of the subreddit.
Now, imagine the sentiment he's complaining about, but there are 3/4/5 times more members in there shilling DONUT.
Therefore, although we've got a lower projection for DONUT, we still believe it can reach as high as $200 million this year.
This places DONUT at a price of ~$0.90 from a current price of $0.023, a ~40x from here.
Technical analysis
MOON rallied close to 600% in a 24-day period between February 23 and March 17, reaching an all-time high of $0.67.
Over the past three days, the token has undergone a healthy correction to $0.39. Currently, MOON is trying to recover from the support range of $0.39-$0.29, but prolonged consolidation in this range is possible. Fibonacci's golden zone of 0.5-0.618 lies between this range, so structurally, MOON should bounce from this range. The Relative Strength Index has also undergone a reset, falling under the overbought zone. While this indicates a subsiding bullish pressure, it allows the market to breathe and prepare for a second leg.
Clearly visible are spikes in 2017 and 2021 - we have no reason to believe that 2024 will be any different.
This is the case across most crypto-related subreddits.
Many of these subreddits have quality content, which keeps people engaged.
What do you do when you're part of a community of like-minded people who make you laugh and provide helpful information on demand?
You buy the token - and there's the thesis.
There's a high likelihood these new degens will buy the official token for their subreddit when we hit the "buy anything" stage of euphoria.
All of the following tokens have the same general characteristics, with the key metric being the potential for the subreddit to record a surge in subscriber growth.
Reddit - a meme paradise
Most of you will be aware of Reddit. However, what's not too often spoken about is the scale of the platform. So, here's some figures:
Seventy million daily active users.
30+ billion monthly views across all content.
In 2021, Reddit was valued at $10 billion.
Reddit generated $810 million in ad revenue last year.
On the surface, for crypto people, Twitter/X seems to be the place to be for all things crypto. But that doesn't do Reddit justice—it's where the masses go to discuss (a generous term for what happens on Reddit) crypto in an ordered forum.
Popular subreddits include r/CryptoCurrency, r/ethtrader, r/Dogecoin, but hundreds of others exist. The top subs have millions of followers - and this is where we potentially capitalise.
🇨🇭Swiss National Bank just started cutting interest rates.
The Fed will follow. Opt out with #Bitcoin
A quick primer on AI x Crypto
We have already seen massive gains in a board of AI tokens, but is there any more potential?
To be frank, crypto AI is still small. The total market capitalisation of AI-related tokens is just over $40b. It is nothing compared to the projected $10+ trillion capitalisation.
What that means is that there is still a massive upside in crypto.
If you are bullish on AI, you likely have a similar stance on GPUs, as AI applications demand substantial computational power. Nevertheless, the current scarcity of GPUs impedes the advancement of AI applications. Researchers, institutions, and individuals don't have access to a cheap way of training their AI models.
In 2-3 years, if the demand for AI continues to surge, the need for GPUs will grow even more significantly. This disproportionate increase in GPU demand could be attributed to the expanding complexity and sophistication of AI models, which necessitate higher computational resources.
As AI becomes more deeply integrated into our daily lives, the need for GPUs will only continue to grow.
Currently, several centralised players are trying to tackle the problem (E.g. Nvidia, Microsoft)
However, decentralised DePin platforms can offer better alternatives that are cheaper and more innovative.
Therefore, we remain extra bullish on decentralised compute providers, especially on assets showing incredible strength.
We present you with a deep dive into the asset that has been making rounds on our trading floor.
The Solana ecosystem has been ripping in adoption and price performance recently.
Understandably, the network offers cheap transactions, a great UX, and astonishing speed. Many projects in the Solana ecosystem—from DEXs to meme coins—have shown strength and rewarded investors with gains.
AI is another winning narrative. AI projects became interesting after ChatGPT launched, and AI coins became popular after OpenAI introduced Sora.
The potential of AI to significantly impact our daily lives has captured the interest of investors.
Today, we will dive deep into a project trying to solve one of the main blockers in the development of AI.
Unsurprisingly, this project is also on Solana. So, can this project combine Solana's winning narrative with the AI narrative to deliver impressive gains in this bull run?
Let's find out.
Coinbase Premium Getting Below 0
“If the premium remains negative when we get a bounce, it may signal a warning sign to the market that the US institution's stance is beginning to shift.”