203
SHDW
- Finally, SHDW has moved a bit with the announcement that it'll be listed on Coinbase. This has compensated for its lack of performance in recent weeks.
- The key level for price to break out from was the $1.80 horizontal resistance, which was smashed through following the Coinbase news.
- Our previous strategy was to accumulate between $0.92 and $1.05 (throughout February), which has now paid dividends.
- If price pulls back and retests the old horizontal resistance ($1.80) and can flip that into new support, that may be the place to bid SHDW again.
PYTH
- PYTH is also forming a pennant pattern. These are usually bullish patterns, but in this case, they are continuation patterns. However, if price breaks down from the pennant, we will want to use it as an opportunity.
- If price does break down, we will likely be buyers of PYTH between $0.72 and $0.77.
- The RSI is also at 56, meaning there is still upside room here. Therefore price can go considerably higher from here on all timeframes.
AVAX
- I have my eye on this, as I do not have exposure to AVAX yet.
- AVAX is battling at a key horizontal level of $55.00 while forming a pennant pattern.
- If the pennant pattern sees price break to the upside, then $73 could be achieved/reached in the mid-term.
- If the pennant breaks to the downside, both Yellow Buy Boxes would be the targets. This is where we would layer Buy Orders between those points.
- The RSI is also in the middle territory, meaning this metric should provide little to no resistance for price to move to the upside.
LINK
- LINK was one of the few coins that didn't really respect its Yellow Buy Box, closing a fair bit below the box before bouncing.
- The prior price highs of the low $16s have acted as support for LINK and have done so again this time.
- Price is now moving towards the top of the range where price has previously found resistance around the $21.70 level.
- The RSI is not a concern in terms of being overbought and potentially being a headwind to further price upside. With RSI where it is, LINK can see more upside.
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Tokenomics
Let's look at Jupiter's tokenomics…
Circulating supply:1,350,000,000 JUP (13.5%)
Max supply: 10,000,000,000 JUP
Market cap: $1.5b
Fully-diluted market cap: $11.2b
Jupiter Perps
Jupiter also offers perp contracts on popular cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, and SOL, with a maximum leverage of 100x. It closely mimics GMX's popular model, where the counterparty for perp traders is liquidity providers. Despite being more user-friendly than Zeta or Drift, only three assets are available to trade, which limits the perp trading experience. However, perps are still in the Beta phase, so we can expect that there will be more assets to trade in the future.
Jupiter Launchpad
Jupiter LFG Launchpad is a platform designed to facilitate the launch of new projects and tokens in the crypto ecosystem. It aims to provide a fair and transparent environment for project teams and investors while protecting users from scams and rug-pulls.
It is innovative and aims to improve the crypto project launch experience for project teams and investors. By leveraging the power of the Solana blockchain and the Meteora DLMM technology, the platform offers a fair, transparent, and efficient way to launch new projects.
Until now, only two tokens have been launched on Jupiter's Launchpad: Jupiter's token, $JUP itself and the memecoin, $WEN. Both launches were successful and proved that Jupiter's innovative concept works. Therefore, over 20 tokenless projects (including deBridge and Sanctum) are currently making introductions in Jupiter's forum to get a chance to launch their tokens on Jupiter.
Reintroducing Jupiter
For most of our community members, Jupiter probably doesn't need an introduction. We all know and love using Jupiter when interacting with the Solana ecosystem.
For people new to Solana, Jupiter is a decentralised swap aggregator and an important piece of infrastructure for the Solana ecosystem. It aims to provide the best price, token selection, and user experience for all users and developers.
It serves as a key liquidity aggregator, offering the widest range of tokens and the best route discovery between any token pair on the Solana network.
We've previously covered Jupiter extensively here and provided an update just before its token launch.
⚡️ JUST IN: Over 67% of all #Bitcoin💰 has not moved in the last year 👀
Читать полностью…
Markets' reaction
Personally (Tom), I see Powell and the Fed as having been overly dovish yesterday, and with further thought, I believe they've shown their hand - they want rate cuts.
They acknowledged stronger economic growth and a stronger labour market, and they expect inflation to be higher than previously anticipated over the next 18 months. Yet they stick with 3 rate cuts rather than 2. Alongside this, in the Press Conference, Powell was asked about;
the very loose financial conditions, and he didn't bite back = dovish.
Hotter than expected January and February inflation points, Powell somewhat dismissed it as "a bumpy ride down to 2% inflation" = dovish.
Dismissive of the tapering to the Balance Sheet = dovish.
Overall, I (Tom) see this as a Fed with a bias to cut - good for risk assets/Crypto - and a Fed that is now perhaps tolerant of a 2-3% inflation rate rather than a strict 2% inflation rate. But, they would never outright say this.
Overall, the above is good for risk assets in the short and medium term but less so in the long term.
Bitcoin slows down as on-chain data hints at a ranging market
Following yesterday's FOMC and Powell Press Conference, markets ripped higher.
However, the "smarter" markets, such as the Bond market, aren't really buying into the Fed's narrative. This could have a longer-term implication for risk assets/crypto.
We have also laid out what we expect the environment to be like in the coming months and how we're looking to play it.
Let's dive into it below.
TLDR
1. Markets rallied after the Fed signalled potential rate cuts in 2024, but bond yields suggest scepticism over the Fed's dovish stance.
2. On-chain metrics and trading indicators have become overheated, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation period for crypto prices.
3. Bitcoin could trade rangebound between $60k and $69k for 2-8 weeks to allow indicators to reset before the next bullish leg higher.
4. Big-cap crypto indexes are facing resistance, supporting the case for some consolidation before attempting fresh breakouts.
5. The overall outlook remains bullish, with any pullbacks seen as buying opportunities ahead of the next upswing.
How to buy
MOON
MOON is available on the following centralised exchanges:
1. Kraken
2. CoinEx
3. Crypto.com
Additionally, you can get MOON directly on-chain via Arbitrum Nova.
First, you need to bridge ETH (or another asset) with Arbitrum Nova.
MOON can then be purchased via RCPSwap.
DONUT
DONUT is not on any CEX, but you can find it on UNISwap.
BRICK
BRICK is available on the following centralised exchanges:
1. Kraken
2. Gate.io
3. CoinEx
4. Crypto.com
Additionally, it can be found on RCPSwap on Arbitrum Nova (same process as MOON)
Valuation
Considering the longevity Fortnite has already displayed, we envision the subscriber count on the subreddit will increase continuously in the foreseeable future.
It's important to note that BRICK is not in any way endorsed by Fortnite or EpicGames.
As interactions increase, BRICK comes to the forefront as more subscribers get paid and become more knowledgeable about the sub and the token.
Therefore, we think that BRICK can reach a $500 million market cap, considering the same mechanics as the r/CryptoCurrency subreddit.
People have less reason to sell unless they want to make a quick buck from rewards.
With that valuation in mind, this sets the target at $7.80 per BRICK, a 64x from the current price of $0.12
BRICK (r/FortNiteBR)
This one is a bit different. We're all aware of Fortnite (if you aren't, you've been living in another dimension where Fortnite was never created).
Although it's a game and not a crypto project, we cannot forget the community—standing at over 4.1 million members.
FortNiteBR is fast becoming one of the largest communities on Reddit thanks to the EpicGames marketing-industrial complex.
BRICK is their subreddit community token and operates in exactly the same way as MOON and DONUT.
The key here is that many Fortnite players will spend hundreds of dollars on skins. Why not a community token related to Fortnite?
Speculators are even more likely to buy BRICKs because they've heard of Fortnite - again, who hasn't?
Our take
Despite having a market cap just north of $1b, PYTH is a solid play, and it's in the SOL ecosystem, which this cycle makes it more attractive.
With SOL having gone from $110 to $190 in the past month, an alternative to straight-up buying SOL is buying SOL ecosystem plays. PYTH is one of them. We have identified the Yellow Buy Box as the zone where we will layer buy orders. However, we appreciate we’re asking a lot, as this is a 20% decline in price to fill the Yellow Box, so we are also prepared to see our orders not be filled.
Our take
AVAX is another similar to LINK in that you likely want it in your portfolio but to keep it relatively underweight in comparison to plays that are more likely to outperform. We would target the Yellow boxes as Buy zones where we'd look to add light exposure if we're given the price below $48, down to $41.80.
Our take
We see LINK as a relatively safe bet, considering its huge market cap. Therefore, we would have it in our portfolio, but we wouldn't have huge exposure to it due to the opportunity cost of not holding other coins we think will outperform over the coming quarters.
Regarding looking for entries, the opportunity was the Yellow box, and with price now being close to the top of its local range (at $21.70), we wouldn't suggest ape'ing in here.
If there is a retest of $17.00 to $17.70, this would be the area to leave buy orders for LINK. A more considerable price upside would come upon a breakout of $22.00, but we would expect this when BTC breaks all-time highs.
Trading opportunites in crypto's hottest ecosystem
Today, we have provided an updated market direction, specifically looking into altcoins, focusing on Solana ecosystem plays that may be attractive as beta plays for SOL in this bull run.
We see all of the coins below as opportunities.
However, the one that stands out most to me (Tom) currently is Nosana.
Let’s dive in!
TLDR
Today’s report focuses on altcoin opportunities, particularly in the SOL ecosystem, for the current bull run.
LINK: A relatively safe bet, but the allocation should be underweight due to the opportunity cost; target $17 to $17.7 for entries.
AVAX: Battling key resistance, potential breakout to $73; consider light exposure below $48.
PYTH: SOL ecosystem play, target the $0.72 to $0.77 buy zone if price breaks down.
SHDW: Benefiting from the Coinbase listing; consider entry if retests $1.8 support.
NOS: Promising SOL ecosystem play, target the $4 to $4.65 buy zone for considerable exposure.
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With all these excellent features, Jupiter aims to compete not only with DEXs but also with CEXs. It is becoming a go-to place for all crypto interactions.
Jupiter by the numbers
As discussed above, features are undoubtedly important, but are they being used?
Let's talk numbers.
Transactional volume
Since our last deep dive into Jupiter, the volumes have skyrocketed and more than tripled in 3 months.
Let's recap what Jupiter offers as a key infrastructure layer for Solana.
DEX aggregator (Swaps)
The core of the Jupiter platform is the DEX aggregator. It focuses on providing the best trading experience for Solana users. The primary function is aggregating liquidity from various DEXs and automated market makers (AMMs) such as Raydium, Serum, Orca, Saber, and others to offer users the best token swap prices and routes.
Using Jupiter's DEX aggregator for normal swaps is free of charge and probably one of the best spot trading experiences in the DeFi.
Limit orders
Jupiter's limit orders allow you to buy or sell any token pair according to your specified price limit. They provide the easiest way to place limit orders on Solana, offering the widest selection of token pairs and leveraging all the available liquidity across the entire Solana ecosystem.
Jupiter charges 0.2% fees on all limit orders.
Dollar-cost-averaging (DCA)
The DCA feature on Jupiter allows you to set a fixed interval and period for your investments, automatically buying your tokens for you. This is a great option for those without time to watch the charts all day. This is a great feature for onboarding many new users on-chain. Before Jupiter, there wasn't a DEX with a DCA feature that could mimic the CEX-like experience.
Jupiter charges 0.1% on DCA order completion.
Bullish on Solana? Don't Ignore this rising star
This time last year, many people were worried that Solana was on its way out. Fast forward to today, and it's clear those fears were premature.
Solana is not just surviving; it's thriving, thanks, in part, to the innovative projects that it hosts.
In this report, we take a closer look at a pivotal piece of the Solana ecosystem. It is hard to be bullish on Solana without being bullish on this project.
This project is the heart and soul of Solana, and if Solana lives up to expectations in the 2024/2025 bull run, this project will be one of the top performers in this season.
Let's dive in!
TLDR
Jupiter is a decentralised swap aggregator and an important infrastructure for the Solana ecosystem.
Volumes are very impressive and have tripled since we last covered it.
It has a launchpad with over 20 projects wanting to be listed.
We remain bullish on JUP and expect it to perform well in line with SOL.
On-chain and trading indicator metrics
We will keep this section shorter.
We have covered in prior updates that some of the on-chain and Trading Indicators have been in overheated/overbought territory for a while, which has historically seen them pull back from this area.
This would likely mean a deep pullback in prices or a period of consolidation. This may mean that Bitcoin remains rangebound between $60k and $69k for a time that allows these metrics some time to cool off before the next potential leg higher.
We would see this as bullish for the market if there were 2 to 6 weeks where prices remained rangebound and, therefore, reset these indicators. It's important to remember that there must be periods of consolidation, even boredom, to have a sustained move higher.
Secondly, we have been closely focusing on the market mechanics. We've seen very high Funding Rates and high Open Interest, indicating that there's a large leverage build-up with the bias to be Long. We're now seeing that despite Open Interest being 10% off from its highs, funding has reset considerably, closer to that 0.01% level (a far healthier level).
This shows a rebalancing in positioning, which was needed and a reason we have been less risk-on in the prior few weeks.
Look at the Binance pairs below. They are all in the 0.01-0.02% territory—this is much better.
The Fed, Powell and the markets' reaction
Going into the FOMC and Powell's Press Conference, the key things we were looking for were whether there was a change in the Dot Plot from 3 interest rate cuts down to 2 rate cuts in 2024 and whether there would be talk of a reduction in QT, i.e., reducing the runoff of the Fed's Balance Sheet each month.
The Dot Plot remained the same, with three interest rate cuts in 2024. However, the Fed admitted that it saw stronger economic growth, strong employment, and slightly higher inflation than initially suggested in its Dot Plot in December 2023.
So, overall, they've recognised that inflation may be more difficult to get down to their 2% mandated target, yet they've maintained 3 interest rate cuts.
Surely, you taper this back to 2 interest rate cuts if you see inflation not smoothly coming down to target? The reason is that if the Interest rate is not as restrictive as the Fed thinks it is (it's not squashing growth or employment or the inflation rate as much as they'd like), then you can't cut interest rates and make the rate even less restrictive otherwise you'll have an inflation problem again.
The Bond market recognises this, which is why Yields are flat/up today—they're not buying that the Fed will cut three times this year. How can they work with an economy that is as strong as it is?
The rate needs to remain restrictive (higher for longer), particularly with a strong economy, if they want the inflation rate to come down. If the Bond market bought that there would be 3 interest rate cuts this year, it would have rallied, i.e., Yields would have fallen substantially. Yet they're flat/higher...
Alongside this, Powell brought up QT (the Fed running off its Balance Sheet) and suggested that they may begin to taper the runoff, i.e., sell (in this case mature) fewer assets each month.
This is a net positive for liquidity. Perhaps the reason for this is that the Reverse Repo Programme is drawing down to 0, having been at $2.5 trillion two years ago. This has been over a $2 trillion stimulus to markets over this period.
The fact that Powell brought this up indicates that the committee (the FOMC) had discussed it and may look to introduce this sooner rather than later. Powell suggested that the Fed were looking to taper to prolong QT by doing less each month but dragging out the process for longer.
Again, perhaps this is another story that the bond market just isn't buying; hence, yields are flat/up.
🇺🇸 The US government made 2.4 X on 💰BTC
CryptoQuant CEO announced that the US government is holding 210,392 BTC seized from all sorts of criminals and these assets are currently making an unrealized gain of x2.4.
Their value exceeds $14 billion.👀
Technical analysis
BRICK experienced a 50% drop from $0.24 to $0.12. However, on the daily chart, the price is recovering with a 12% rise.
Fundamentally, BRICK has followed a traditional resistance-support-based price action, and it is currently retracing from a long-term resistance that turned support at $0.118. Another positive confluence to the re-test is that the support of $0.118 is coupled with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line.
Strong demand here may allow BRICK to gradually recover near its recent high of $0.24. BRICK represented a decent trading volume of over $600,000 for its $9 million market cap.
Tokenomics
BRICK has an uncapped supply and a current circulating supply of ~64 million.
Inflation figures are unclear, but we believe that BRICK is modelled after MOON.
With a market cap of ~$ $7.8 million, there's a clear disparity between Fortnite's popularity, its subreddit community size, and that low market cap.
Technical analysis
DONUT has experienced a strong correction of around 68% after reaching a high of $0.06 on March 12. It is currently at around $0.02, with minor recovery in play.
The long-term accumulation is between $0.012 and $0.004, but bids can be placed at the confluence of 100-ema and 200-ema, as presented in the chart. This has acted as bullish support in 2024.
One caution to be noted is DONUT's low trading volume of only $132,000 for a market cap of $4.4 million.
It is not the worst, but it should have been higher for a trending token.