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GALA: Really slow price action today, and the price is consolidating just below the $0.05339 level, which represents the 100% fibonacci extension of yellow wave A of wave iv. A break above this level opens the door for the price to reach $0.0603, which is the first ideal target for wave (3) in white. It takes the formation of 5 waves to the 1.618 extension level at $0.065 to confirm that a low has formed. It is frustrating but it is important that we see these 5 waves to the upside before confirming that a low has formed, because price action from the 13th of April low so far looks corrective, and if one more low forms then this is the ideal spot to start wave v to the downside from.
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DOT: The price has not done much since yesterday and the rally is just in 3 waves. To further confirm the yellow scenario, in which wave (ii) has already formed a low, wave (3) should reach $8.54+. The price has now reached a critical resistance level and if wave (5) to the downside is supposed to start, then ideally from here. This is a key juncture.
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LINK: The price needs to move a little higher for me to consider wave (3) in the blue scenario as completed. The price has now been rejected at the 100% extension level, which is usually a rejection point in a corrective rally. A break above today´s high will open the door for the price to reach $16.87, which is the first ideal target for blue wave (3).
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LINK: The blue scenario shows the most bullish interpretation. If we can identify 5 waves, which reach $17.72+, then a low has likely formed in wave ii already. A 3-wave rally into resistance will indicate a B-wave in yellow. Both blue and yellow scenarios require a break above $15 to unfold. If one more low unfolds as per the white scenario, $10.65 is likely the next support level. Based on these scenarios, from a tactical point of view dips can be opportunities to look for long positions, whereas a rally into the resistance area might offer the opportunity to take partial profits.
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ADA: Not much has changed since yesterday. The price has moved out of the support zone and is heading upwards. The next resistance level is at $0.561. According to the current Elliott Wave pattern (yellow), wave (3) is expected to reach at least $0.568. However, the price must break above $0.561 first. If a complete five-wave sequence unfolds as depicted in yellow, reaching $0.598 or higher, it would suggest that wave 2 has established a low. Until then, one more low is likely in this correction.
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BTC: Just $1,000 or so would help for a nice 5th wave.
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BTC: If this is indeed wave (4), the correction should take half a day or so. We will see.
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FET: Slight upside today. There have been only three waves from the recent low, so a break above resistance at $2.50 is needed at a minimum to indicate that a low has formed. A break below $1.93 would confirm the unfolding of wave (C) further. Maybe a low has formed, but if not, then one more low might be all that the chart needs to complete the correction. $1.58 is the next support level. From what I can see the correction should be over soon. I will change my view if the price breaks below $1.28, because this would indicate a break of price structure.
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IS THE BULL RUN OVER?
Strong recent economic data likely pushes the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in July or September, with possibly only 1 (at most 2) interest rate cuts in 2024. The worst-case scenario would be the first rate cut coming in December, yes, post-presidential Election.
This has changed the risk environment to less risk-on in the past few weeks, and this may continue for another 3-8 weeks.
However, this is almost a welcome surprise as it may help crypto remain in a consolidation range (prices-wise). As a result, it will reset many of the overbought on-chain metrics and trading indicators, which should help prolong the bull cycle that was seeming to become too frothy too quickly. This would also extend the peaking of the on-chain metrics, meaning they would likely produce price tops towards the end of 2024.
From June onwards, a potential tapering of QT and increasing liquidity from Yellen and the TGA would provide an accommodative environment for risk assets. This will also be a month after the Bitcoin halving, which has always been a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin's price.
This would potentially set up a very good second half of 2024 for crypto, with a possible market top coming at the very end of the year or even early 2025.
However, one thing we haven't mentioned that we should also continue paying attention to is the demand for ETFs. It's hard to know what effect the ETFs will have, although we expect they'll continue to bring demand to Bitcoin, which should only aid Bitcoin's price going higher.
Ultimately, we may be in for a choppy next month or so, but we expect crypto to perform very well in the second half of 2024. We continue to hold Spot positions with a focus on the majors and the SOL ecosystem, with a look to sell towards the end of 2024, maybe early 2025.
OCEAN: Even though the bullish thesis is being challenged, the support range is holding and as long as the $0.47 support level holds, the price should reach $2.94-$3.12 next. However, it is too early to confirm that a low has formed. It minimally takes a break above $0.90 for a first indication that a low has been established.
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BTC: Building on the last update, there have been only three upward waves from the last low at $69,570. This movement offers so far no further confirmation that a significant low might have been established. If the price can sustain above yesterday's high and beyond Monday's high of $72,720, the yellow bullish scenario, which could drive the price towards $81,000 or higher, seems increasingly likely. Conversely, a failure to break yesterday's high indicates the potential for a notable decline under the white scenario, which would need a drop below $64,520 to gain traction. Nonetheless, as long as prices stay above micro support, the yellow scenario is a reasonable scenario. I already mentioned yesterday that it looks more as if the yellow scenario is taking the lead, but without any breakout confirmation we have no additional data to work with.
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Hong Kong may approve exchange-traded funds investing directly in both Bitcoin and Ether, the two dominant cryptocurrencies, as soon as Monday, according to people familiar with the matter.👀
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BONK: In the yellow scenario, the price is still extending in its third wave in my opinion. Micro support has been adjusted to the range between $0.x175552 and $0.x233393. The next structural resistance levels are at $0.x295561 and $0.x370425. Overall expectations are still for the price to form one more high in wave v to reach $0.x730239+. It is possible that this move has started, but the April 19th low needs to hold in this case.
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ADA: The price is consolidating below the resistance range I highlighted yesterday. The range between $0.516 and $0.523 is a critical resistance range and if a 5th wave to the downside is supposed to unfold, it would likely start from here. However, so far the price has not really experienced a strong rejection and a break above $0.523 would open the door for yellow wave (3) to reach $0.568+. We need to see 5 waves to $0.598+ to confirm that wave 2 has bottomed.
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SOL: The price structure remains unchanged. A micro support region has been defined for the yellow B-wave. Should a pullback occur, the support is defined within the range of $127 to $141. The probabilities on this chart are evenly balanced and are expected to remain rather unclear for the foreseeable future, due to the corrective nature of the micro structures.
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FET: I have little new information to share since the last update. Currently, the move up has some strong momentum and has extended to a level that is quite high for a fourth wave in the white scenario, so I'm treating it as if a low has already formed. However, given the corrective nature, it's likely just a diagonal at best, or possibly failing in another corrective B wave. It's difficult to make a definitive assessment at this point until all 5 waves to the upside have formed as per the yellow scenario. Nevertheless, if you scaled into the recent lows, then you can just manage risk and consider taking partial profits if the price rises further, because the price might spend some more time in this range before really breaking out.
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CKB: The price has reached the wave iv support zone, which is defined between $0.009266 and $0.0185. To keep the impulsive upside potential alive, the 50% retracement level needs to hold. A break below $0.009276 will activate the blue scenario, in which the price is in a b-wave pullback. This scenario would make the chart very unreliable and it would then be wise to wait for a 1-2 setup in blue wave (c) for confirmation that a new uptrend has started. Wave (A) in yellow has reached an ideal target, so a wave (B) bounce could start from here,
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ICP: My view is that this rally could be a B-wave, with standard resistance between $15.23 and $18.31. A break below $11.37 is needed to indicate that wave (c) has started to the downside. If 5 waves to the upside form, then circle wave 5 is still unfolding and might be targeting $31.37.
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WIF: The price reacted to the micro support zone and a break above the wave (4) high at $3.16 would indicate that a low has formed in wave (iv) already as per the white scenario. If the low has not formed already, then one more low could be enough to complete this wave (iv) correction.
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ETH: This looks more like an ABC in wave B of (3) at the moment. However, to keep this micro structure alive the price should stay below the intraday high.
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SOL: The chart is still undecided. However, if the price surpasses $156.20, then the yellow scenario may take precedence, targeting initial price ranges from $165 to $182 for wave c of (A). Either way, it appears likely that there will be a rally in the coming weeks, either in the yellow scenario or the red B-wave.
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✅ The confidential circle members receive 5-10 signals on daily basis available to noone outside the circle.
✅ The signals are short- and medium-term.
✅ Specified entry, take profit and stop loss objectives.
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BTC: Wave 5 of (3) might be complete. If a corrective rally occurs from here then the rally should stop in the micro resistance area between $63,737 and $66,236. One more low seems likely to complete wave (5) of c.
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OP: The support area remains unchanged, and the price seems to be following a descending wedge pattern. The price might form one more high to complete an ABC structure as long as the $1.90 support holds. However, there is a possibility that a larger price top has already been established as suggested by the yellow scenario. Given these circumstances, it might be prudent to wait for a 1-2 setup to the upside to identify the next entry point. This is particularly advisable because a top may have already been established in an ABC structure, and the subsequent movements following a C-wave top are always uncertain. Observing a 1-2 setup will help provide clarity if it appears.
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ETH: Since yesterday, the price has essentially moved sideways, indicating a lack of momentum in either direction. To decisively favor one scenario over another, we require more definitive price action, but so far, we've only seen corrective movements since yesterday's low. Following a five-wave decline from Monday's high and a subsequent three-wave rise to yesterday's high—which then saw a reversal—the yellow scenario that forecasts further declines seems to become more likely. However, the white scenario, which depends on a breakout upwards, still remains a possibility. And also given Bitcoin´s potential strength it is worth to take the direct upside scenario seriously. As long as the price does not exceed yesterday's high, the yellow wave scenario suggests a significant potential drop, possibly reaching $2,975 as per wave (c). Nevertheless, with the current wave structure remaining ambiguous, I remain cautious about fully committing to any scenario on the micro level.
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The value of BlackRock’s #Bitcoin holdings jumps to $18.9 BILLION 😮
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