[7.0] Bitcoin surge expected with potential approval of spot bitcoin ETF. — Reuters
Bitcoin is experiencing a surge in October, with investors anticipating the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by U.S. regulators. Estimates for the potential cash inflow into a spot bitcoin ETF range from $3 billion on its first day to $55 billion over five years, with some market players comparing it to the impact of gold ETFs.
[7.2] Banks financed "carbon bomb" projects, exceeding carbon budget fourfold. — The Guardian
Banks provided over $150 billion in financing last year to companies operating "carbon bomb" projects, which could release over one gigaton of carbon dioxide each and exceed the remaining carbon budget four times over. Between 2016 and 2022, banks in the US, China, and Europe provided $1.8 trillion in financing to these projects. JPMorgan Chase was the largest financier, providing over $141 billion, followed by Citi and Bank of America.
[7.2] Shipping industry slowly adopting green methanol technology. — The New York Times
The shipping industry is working to reduce its environmental impact. Leading this change is the cargo ship Laura Maersk, which uses an eco-friendly methanol engine capable of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 100 tons per day —equivalent to 8,000 cars.
However, the 125 methanol-powered ships in the pipeline make up just a small part of the worldwide fleet of over 50,000 cargo ships, which are responsible for moving 90% of global trade. The green methanol market is still emerging and faces challenges in production and pricing. Despite new regulations from the European Union and pledges from the International Maritime Organization to be carbon-neutral by 2050, the shipping industry is only beginning to move toward sustainability.
[7.3] Strong consumer demand in 2023 defies recession warnings. — The New York Times [$]
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.9% annual rate in Q3 2023, significantly outpacing the Federal Reserve's standard growth expectation of roughly 2%, despite interest rates being raised above 5.25%. While certain sectors like existing home sales have slowed, consumer spending and employment have remained strong. However, there is caution among Federal Reserve officials and businesses as the holiday season approaches, with preparations being made for 2024.
[7.0] 110 million forcibly displaced worldwide, conflicts and natural disasters main drivers. — UN News
As of June 2023, there were 110 million forcibly displaced individuals worldwide, with an additional 4 million estimated to have been displaced between June and September. The main drivers of forced displacement were conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods, and insecurity in Somalia. Low and middle-income countries hosted three-quarters of those in need of international protection.
[7.1] AI poses security risks, including cyber-attacks and terrorism, warns report. — The Independent
A new report released by the Government Office for Science warns that AI will pose significant security risks to the UK within the next two years. By 2025, AI is expected to increase the frequency and sophistication of cyber-attacks, scams, fraud, and other crimes. The report also highlights the potential for AI to enhance terrorist capabilities, including propaganda, weapons development, and attack planning. The government is urging honesty about the risks associated with AI and the need to address them while harnessing its benefits.
[7.0] GSK's RSV vaccine shows positive results in late-stage trial. — Reuters
GSK has announced that its vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), called Arexvy, has shown positive preliminary results in a late-stage trial. The vaccine met its primary goal of eliciting an immune response in adults aged 50 to 59 who are at an increased risk of catching the virus due to certain underlying medical conditions. RSV is a leading cause of pneumonia in toddlers and the elderly, and the vaccine has already been approved in several countries to protect adults aged 60 and older.
[7.2] Nigeria to vaccinate 7.7 million girls against leading cause of cervical cancer. — UN News
Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer deaths among women aged 15 to 44 in Nigeria. In 2020, there were 12,000 new cases and 8,000 deaths from cervical cancer in the country. To combat this, Nigeria has launched a nationwide vaccination campaign, targeting 7.7 million girls aged nine to 14, with the goal of preventing the infection of HPV types that cause at least 70% of cervical cancers. The vaccine will be provided for free by the Federal Ministry of Health, with support from Gavi, UNICEF, WHO, and other partners.
[7.2] Climate change will make dengue endemic in Europe and US. — POLITICO Europe
Jeremy Farrar, the World Health Organization's chief scientist, has warned that climate change will lead to the infectious disease dengue becoming endemic in parts of Europe and the United States. The mosquitoes that transmit the virus thrive in warm, damp climates and have already been spreading further into Europe. Farrar emphasized that this will have a significant impact on health systems, as each child hospitalized with dengue requires intense care, potentially overwhelming healthcare systems. He also stressed the need to reframe climate change as a health issue and change the narrative surrounding it.
[7.3] US tech giants dominate global stocks, propelling US equity market. — Financial Times [$]
Seven large US tech companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla, have driven all of the gains in global stocks this year, propping up the S&P 500 index and pushing US dominance of equity markets to new heights. These companies have added almost $4tn in market capitalization in 2023, compared to $3.4tn in gains for the MSCI index (1) as a whole. The US share of global market capitalization has risen for the eighth time in the past decade, with US companies now accounting for 61% of the $60tn index, up from less than 50% a decade ago.
(1) MSCI — global stock market index that tracks the performance of large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed countries.
[7.6] Accelerating ice losses in West Antarctica are "unavoidable," causing sea level rise. — The Washington Post [$], Reuters
New research suggests that accelerating ice losses in vulnerable West Antarctic ice shelves are "unavoidable" this century as waters warm around them, potentially leading to more than the predicted 1 to 3 feet of sea level rise by 2100. Even under the best-case scenario of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, the ice will melt three times faster this century than it did last century. The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of nine global climate 'tipping points' and could lead to catastrophic consequences for life on Earth.
[7.1] Chinese drugmakers use endangered animals in products — Reuters
Three publicly traded Chinese drugmakers have been found to use parts of endangered animals in their products, according to a report by the Environmental Investigation Agency. The report identified 72 firms that use body parts of threatened leopards and pangolins in at least 88 traditional Chinese medicine products. The agency called on global investors, including major banks and financial institutions, to divest from these companies.
[7.1] Zika virus infection model used to develop vaccines and treatments — Reuters
Researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States have successfully infected human volunteers with the Zika virus in a controlled human infection model. The study aims to learn more about the disease and develop vaccines and treatments. Zika is a viral infection spread by mosquitoes that can be dangerous for pregnant women and cause birth defects, but there are currently no vaccines or treatments available.
[7.4] Insurance sector underestimates climate change impact amid rising losses — Financial Times [$]
Lloyd's, a British insurance and reinsurance market. has alerted insurance entities that the full ramifications of climate change have not yet been fully realized in claims data, despite the sector experiencing an estimated $50 billion in losses from natural catastrophes during the first half of this year, marking the second worst start to a year since 2011.
Insurance prices are escalating as companies aim to recuperate their margins following substantial losses, further strained by the inflation in reconstruction costs. The price hike by reinsurers of up to 200% in January has initiated a domino effect, with some insurers like State Farm ceasing to underwrite new home coverage in certain areas like California.
[7.2] Dengue fever epidemic in Burkina Faso, WHO warns of spread. — Reuters
Burkina Faso has declared a dengue fever epidemic, with over 200 deaths and 50,478 suspected cases reported this year. The majority of cases and deaths have occurred in the urban centers of Ouagadougou and Bobo Dioulasso, with a 20% increase in cases and deaths recorded in the past week alone. The World Health Organization has warned that dengue fever will become a major threat in new parts of Africa due to climate change and the spread of mosquitoes carrying the infection.
[7.1] Alibaba upgrades AI model and releases industry-specific models. — Reuters
Alibaba has updated its AI model Tongyi Qianwen to version 2.0, which now has "hundreds of billions of" parameters, making it one of the world's most powerful AI models. The company has also released eight industry-specific AI models for entertainment, finance, healthcare, and legal industries.
[7.3] Personal details of 815 million Indians leaked online. — Hindustan Times
Personal details of over 815 million Indians have been leaked online, allegedly sourced from the Indian Council of Medical Research. A hacker posted the data on a forum, including, names, phone numbers, addresses, and passport information.
[7.2] Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess gives access to Guyana's oil, transforming the country's economy. — Financial Times [$]
Chevron acquired Hess for $53 billion, gaining access to Guyana's offshore oil reserves estimated at 11 billion barrels. Guyana's oil output, which went from zero to 390,000 barrels a day last year, is projected to reach 1.2 million barrels a day by 2027, about a third of Exxon's current daily production.
Amid this resource boom, Guyana's economy grew by a record 62.3% last year, and the IMF forecasts 38% growth in 2023. However, there are underlying concerns such as the "resource curse," potential climate impacts, and the absence of a decommissioning fund in Guyana's 2016 contract.
[7.4] Worst fire season in 70 years in Queensland, Australia. — ABC News
More than 60 fires are currently burning across Queensland, making it the state's worst fire season in 70 years. Firefighters have battled over 400 fires in just one week, and the conditions are being compared to the devastating 2019 Black Summer bushfires. The state would need 250-300mm of prolonged rain to remove the danger, but the forecast for the remainder of spring and summer is not promising.
[7.0] Biden administration seeks stable oil prices amid Middle East tensions. — The New York Times [$]
The Biden administration is concerned about a potential conflict in the Middle East causing a surge in global oil prices and is exploring ways to keep American gasoline prices stable. This includes discussions with oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and American oil producers to increase supply. The administration is also considering authorizing new releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was depleted last year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
[7.6] Pfizer and BioNTech develop combo flu and COVID-19 vaccine. — Reuters
Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their flu and COVID-19 vaccine generated a strong immune response against strains of both viruses in an early- to mid-stage trial. The companies plan to begin a late-stage trial in the coming months. The vaccine has the potential to simplify immunization practices by addressing two respiratory diseases with a single injection.
[7.0] China to cap crude oil refining capacity to reduce emissions. — Reuters
China's state planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has confirmed that it will cap its crude oil refining capacity at 1 billion metric tons by 2025 in order to streamline the sector and reduce carbon emissions. China surpassed the United States as the world's largest oil processor in 2022, with a refining capacity of 920 million tonnes per year. The NDRC will limit new refining capacity, promote the upgrading and optimization of refineries, and accelerate the closure of small and outdated plants.
[7.2] Brisk walking for 22 minutes daily counters negative effects of sitting. — The Guardian
A study published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine suggests that going for a brisk walk for just 22 minutes once a day can offset the negative health effects of sitting too much. Sedentary lifestyles are a leading cause of ill health worldwide, but moderate-to-vigorous physical activity can eliminate the increased risk from being sedentary. The study found that every minute of higher moderate-to-vigorous physical activity showed a lower risk of death, and doing 22 minutes or more per day eliminated the higher risk of death from sedentary time.
[7.0] Euro zone business activity falls, recession concerns rise, Q4 contraction expected. — Reuters
Euro zone business activity in October fell to its lowest level since November 2020, indicating a broad-based downturn and raising concerns of a possible recession. The flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 46.5, well below the 50 level that indicates growth, and below expectations for an uptick to 47.4. Germany, Europe's largest economy, saw a fourth consecutive month of contraction in business activity, while France also experienced a decline. The outlook for the euro zone economy remains gloomy, with expectations of contraction in Q4.
[7.4] 130+ companies urge governments to phase out fossil fuels, support clean energy. — The Verge, Financial Times [$], Reuters
More than 130 companies, including Volvo Cars, Ikea, Unilever, Nestlé, and AstraZeneca, have signed a letter calling on governments to adopt a global plan to phase out fossil fuels without carbon capture during upcoming international climate negotiations. The signatories represent close to $1 trillion in global annual revenue from diverse industries. The letter asks governments to phase out "unabated" fossil fuels, speed up the rollout of clean energy, provide financial support to less affluent countries, establish fees for carbon pollution, and reform subsidies for fossil fuels to support energy efficiency and renewables.
[7.4] IEA predicts major rise in clean energy by 2030. — IEA, CNBC, The New York Times [$], ABC News
The International Energy Agency predicts significant growth in clean technologies by 2030, including nearly a tenfold increase in electric cars and renewables making up almost 50% of the global electricity mix, up from around 30% today. Under today's policy settings, fossil fuels will decline to from 80% to 73% of the global energy supply, and energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to peak by 2025. The report also suggests that if countries fulfill their climate pledges, clean energy progress could accelerate even further. A surge in new liquefied natural gas projects from 2025 is projected to ease supply concerns, reducing Russia's share of internationally traded gas to 15% by 2030.
[7.5] Chinese shares hit lowest level since 2019 — Financial Times [$]
Chinese shares have fallen to their lowest level since 2019, driven by slowing economic growth, a liquidity crisis in the property sector, and geopolitical tensions. The gauge has fallen about 15% this year in dollar terms, and global funds have sold a net $23bn worth of shares since August, leaving net inflows for the year down more than 70% from their peak.
[7.2] Corporate concentration fuels global inequality and food insecurity — Financial Times [$]
Recent years marked a surge in labor actions and antitrust cases, with the US recording the highest number of working days lost to strikes in nearly 25 years, alongside intensified anti-monopoly measures.
The pandemic further amplified corporate concentration, particularly in developing nations where the top 1% of exporting businesses captured between 40 and 90% of total export revenues. This corporate dominance contributed to the global labor share decline from 57% in 2000 to 53% today, exacerbating income inequality.
In the commodities sector, despite reduced demand, prices persist at elevated levels due to financialisation and speculative practices, heightening global food insecurity.
[7.0] Lack of sleep linked to higher risk of depression symptoms. — The Guardian
Sleeping less than five hours a night may increase the risk of developing symptoms of depression, according to research. The study, which analyzed genetic and health data from over 7,000 people, found that those genetically predisposed to short sleep were more likely to develop depressive symptoms over a period of 4 to 12 years. People sleeping five hours or less were 2.5 times more likely to develop depressive symptoms, while those with depressive symptoms were a third more likely to suffer from short sleep.
[7.2] HPV vaccine prevents cervical cancer, but not offered to boys. — WIRED [$]
The HPV vaccine has been highly effective in preventing cervical cancer, with cases falling by 87% among those who received the vaccine compared to those who didn't in the UK. The vaccine also protects against other types of cancer and genital warts, but boys and men are not offered the vaccine in two-thirds of countries where it is available. However, there is a growing push for gender-neutral HPV vaccine campaigns and supply has started to increase, allowing for wider rollouts.