[Highlight] George Kittle starts chatting with George Karlaftis during the play and doesn't notice the loose ball - Karlaftis dives on it and recovers the fumble.
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Who's the worst quarterback who had a legitimate chance to win a Super Bowl but didn't?
Shitpost but hey whatever, it's officially the offseason.
Trent Dilfer is the stand alone, no doubt about it, worst quarterback to have ever won a Super Bowl. But are there any quarterbacks in history who came close that could have taken that title? Guys who made it to the big game, or were maybe on some loaded contending teams that didn't seal the deal? A few nominees:
2017 Blake Bortles
If Myles Jack isn't ruled down, and the Jags and their one hit wonder amazing defense go on to blank the Eagles in the Super Bowl does Blake Bortles become the worst starting quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl? How does his career change from there? Someone is still probably willing to give him a chance to start today if he has the title of Super Bowl champion.
2018 Mitch Turbisky
A quarterback who did just enough while playing with an incredibly elite defense. Obviously would have taken a few extra things to go in his favor to have made this run, but the Bears defense shut down the Rams that year and that defense absolutely could have stifled the Pats offense in the Super Bowl if they got that far.
Other quarterbacks who went to the Super Bowl and lost that could have taken this title had they won: Tony Eason, Stam Humphries, Neil O'Donnell, Rex Grossman, Vince Ferragamo.
What say you, /r/nfl?
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Quarterback efficiency...anything stick out?
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Who are locks for next years Hall of Fame?
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[Highlight] Heroic Kansas City fans with the tackle of their lives, bringing down one of the shooting suspects at the Chiefs Super Bowl Parade🙏🏾
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[Highlight] A wild Willie Gay running through the streets shirtless at the Chiefs parade 😭
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[Mic’d Up] Players on both sides recognized the impact of Dre Greenlaw’s injury
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to miss games to injury. He missed weeks 7-10 with an ankle injury. Coincidentally, those were the four games Bagent started.
* **WR Chase Claypool:**
* Claypool played three games for the Bears in 2023. He sucked.
* ***But, according to PFF he was better in Miami this season than he was in Chicago.***
* **He had a 53.3 offense grade and 56.0 route grade in Chicago, and a 60.9 offense grade and 63.3 route grade in Miami.**
* In 2022, Claypool had similar PFF grades in Pittsburgh as he did in Chicago. He had a 61.3 offense grade and a 62.6 route grade as a Steeler, and 62.0 offense grade and 61.7 route grade as a Bear.
* **TE Robert Tonyan**
* Tonyan spent five years in Green Bay before this season with Chicago.
* **Last year in GB, he had a 57.7 offense grade, and a 60.5 route grade. His best year was 2020, when he had a 68.6 offense grade and a 71.6 route grade. This year in Chicago, he had a 49.6 offense grade and a 54.9 route grade.**
​
​
**WR performance in zone coverage:** This should serve as a halfway-decent measurement on how well the Bears were able to scheme receivers open this season.
||PFF route grade vs man|PFF route grade vs zone|
|:-|:-|:-|
|DJ Moore|91.2|**81.2**|
|Darnell Mooney|59.9|**60.1**|
|Tyler Scott|45.0|**59.5**|
|Equanimeous St. Brown|59.0|**56.6**|
|Velus Jones Jr.|61.7|**46.1**|
|Cole Kmet|62.0|**80.0**|
​
|Nico Collins|92.1|88.7|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Tank Dell|65.0|89.5|
|Jayden Reed|72.3|74.2|
|Romeo Doubs|56.5|80.4|
|Dontayvion Wicks|69.8|79.2|
|Zay Flowers|71.3|73.5|
|Mark Andrews|69.2|81.2|
​
​
**So, really with the exception of DJ Moore, every vet who came to Getsy's offense this year played noticeably worse in PFF's eyes. I think the most remarkable example of this is Chase Claypool, who supposedly played worse as a Bear after a full training camp than he did after being traded in the middle of the season, and then he played better after leaving Chicago.**
**Of course, Getsy was an OC, so player development isn't exactly his main job. But, because PFF grades are based on gametime performances and Getsy was the person calling plays, I don't really think he utilized the talent that he had very well.**
​
**Now, when we look at Fields, his PFF pass grade increased 13 points from last season. Of his pass-catchers, only Moore and Kmet saw an increase in their offense grade. Those also were the only two Bears to have a good PFF grade vs zone coverage. Again, it's kinda hard to blame Fields when you see him get better as a player, this in turn clearly elevates his two best receivers, but other players around him play worse this season.**
**Even if you want to say it's Fields' responsibility to elevate all players around him, I can't imagine he was playing so horribly that one of his offensive linemen saw their PFF pass blocking grade drop 20 points. I personally don't see how you could blame that type of performance dropoff from a fifth-year, $30 million dollar player on anything other than scheme.**
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**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
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**Additionally, it probably should be said that it seems like the team wants Justin**
* Of course when your QB is a good person very few teammates will go around saying they want a new QB, but Fields has a lot of support from his locker room.
* On the St. Brown brothers' podcast, DJ Moore [said he thinks the Bears should trade back](https://youtu.be/dgkEC3qG0rQ?si=qCa_pqYcbRyaSf9l&t=2030). It also seems to me like he told Bears management to keep Justin because of what he said in his [exit press conference](https://youtu.be/Sqrhx6kUjgQ?si=bO4DJrQ8yGeprDCY&t=185).
* Pro-Bowl CB Jaylon Johnson made a lot of comments on coaching, offensive line, receivers, and suggested that he would like to see Justin Fields return by saying "get rid of him ... I don't think thats the answer" in [an interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQmZN6nf5LU)
Mahomes it was 11.2% and for Allen it was 10.3%.
​
* **PFF also has stats for pressures where the QB had some responsibility. According to them, 17.6% of the times Fields was pressured he had some responsibility.**
* **For Mahomes it was 21.5%, Lamar was at 21.1%, Hurts had 22.2%, for Allen it was 20.4%, Stroud was at 17.4%, and Love was at 13.9%.**
* 34 total pressures and 12 sacks were Fields' fault. It was 47 pressures and 6 sacks in 16 games for Mahomes, and 39 pressures and 9 sacks in 17 games for Allen.
* Mahomes only gave up 6 sacks, but he was hit 21 times on pressures that were his fault. Allen had 9 hits and Fields had 4.
​
​
* **So, is the sack problem pass protection? Let's take a look:**
* PFF gave the Bears a 57.2 pass blocking grade, which was 24th in the league,
* **They also gave the offensive line a 81.1 pass blocking efficiency rating which was 26th in the league.**
* The teams that had a worse pass blocking efficiency grade than the Bears offensive line were the Panthers, Patriots, Seahawks, all with a 79.8 rating, then the Giants with a 78.6 rating, then the Jets with a 77.9 rating, and the Titans in last with a 74.5 rating.
* **Individual offensive line PFF grades:**
|Starters|Offensive Grade|Pass Block Grade|Run Block Grade|Positional Ranking|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|T Braxton Jones|68.7|**70.7**|72.2|**35th** of 83|
|G Teven Jenkins|72.9|**68.5**|68.1|**13th** of 80|
|C Lucas Patrick|50.5|**40.6**|61.6|**32nd** of 37|
|G Nate Davis|52.9|**47.8**|55.2|**60th** of 80|
|T Darnell Wright|62.4|**61.3**|66.0|**54th** of 83|
|Qualified Backups|||||
|G Cody Whitehair|45.0|**55.0**|42.4|74th of 80|
|T Larry Borom|48.0|**45.2**|50.4|76th of 83|
​
**Some film examples:**
* It wasn't overly uncommon to see bad oline play this season, dumb stuff like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRsH4qYZU6U) happened
* [This play is even worse](https://imgur.com/a/MnZfTOI), you see Fields point at #55 at the start of the play, then the center just ignores the blitzing linebacker, and you can see Fields visibly upset with his line afterwards. It looks like he was telling them they were supposed to shift right. You can't even blame this on Fields for not adjusting the protection, on the broadcast you can hear Fields saying ["Luke 55"](https://imgur.com/a/tjPkySQ) telling his center (Lucas Patrick) to block #55
​
​
**To break it down:**
||% of pressures that the QB had some responsibility|\# of pressures that the QB had some responsibility|\# of pressures that the QB had no responsibility|\# of pressures and (sacks) due to QB per game|\# of non-QB responsibility pressures per game|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Fields|**17.6%**|34|193|**2.72 (.92)**|15.44|
|Stroud|**17.4%**|28|161|**1.87 (.80)**|10.73|
|Love|**13.9%**|23|166|**1.35 (.35)**|9.76|
|Lamar|**21.1%**|35|166|**2.19 (.56)**|10.38|
|Mahomes|**21.5%**|47|194|**2.94 (.38)**|12.13|
|Allen|**20.4%**|39|193|**2.29 (.53)**|11.35|
|Hurts|**22.2%**|47|201|**2.76 (.71)**|11.82|
|Bagent|**17.4%**|8|46|*1.88 (.22)*\*\*|10.22\*|
|Howell\*\*|**15.1%**|36|239|**2.12 (.88)**|14.06|
|Average Values|**14.7%**|\*\*\*|\*\*\*|**1.73 (.597)**|11.29|
\*\*^(\*Bagent is included, but it probably should be noted that the teams Bagent played had an average of a 63.9 PFF pass rush grade vs the Bears and Fields played against teams with a 74.6 average)\*\*^(. The median team pass rush grade was 75.0 in 2023.)
^(\*\*Howell is included because he was sacked the most of any QB this season.)
^(\*\*\*this number is not included because of the variance in games played by QBs)
**These numbers are really interesting. It seems that on average, Fields caused about .6 to 1.1 more pressures per game than Bears fan should be comfortable with. But, this number is also high for Lamar, Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes, who are all considered playmakers.**
**The problem seems to be that these pressures are causing sacks at a higher rate. From this Fields is causing \~.32 more sacks than average. How detrimental is
second read"** This has been said quite a lot to explain the production drop-off from Moore to Mooney and the other wide receivers.
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
​
Anyway lets take a look at some receiving stats:
||Receptions|Completion%|Yards|TD|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|DJ Moore|96|74%|1364|8|
|Darnell Mooney|31|56%|414|1|
|Tyler Scott|17|55%|168|0|
|E. St. Brown|5|83%|62|0|
|Velus Jones Jr.|4|57%|20|0|
^(\*Listed in order of the Bears depth chart by ESPN)
​
**PFF** Stats: ([rough PFF grading scale](https://imgur.com/a/mhDaoBr))
||Offensive grade|Grade for pass routes|Drop% for on-target throws|Postion ranking|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|DJ Moore|89.4|**89.6**|2.0%|**9** of 112|
|Darnell Mooney|55.2|**58.9**|13.9%|**100** of 112|
|Tyler Scott|52.7|**53.2**|15.0%|**106** of 112|
|Median values for qualified WR\*|68.3|**69.2**|5.6%|\--|
^(\* (30+ targets to be eligible))
​
**Darnell Mooney:** I think a lot of people know that Mooney had a 1,000 yard season, and expect him to be a pretty decent WR2. Taking a look at his stats, it seems he regressed a bit this year.
||PFF offense grade|PFF route grade|COMP%|PFF drop grade|REC|YDS|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2020 (Trubisky)|68.7|67.3|64.9%|83.9|61|631|
|2021 (Fields + Dalton)|74.7|74.9|60.4%|79.4|81|1,055|
|2022 (Fields)|69.2|68.9|69.0%|82.2|40|493|
|2023 (Fields)|55.2|58.9|56.4%|41.0|31|414|
​
**Tyler Scott:** I'm sure fewer people know Tyler Scott, as this year he is a rookie. I don't really have too much to say about Scott, other than [oof](https://imgur.com/a/rWsNmdg). But, he's a rookie so there's still plenty of time from him to improve his game.
​
* **Only two Bears had a PFF route grade over 70, Cole Kmet and DJ Moore**
* **Fields' stats targeting Kmet and Moore: 77.0% COMP / 12 TD / 1 INT / 1649 YDS / 10.24 Y/A / 131.2 RTG**
* Average depth of target with Fields was 8.0 yards for Kmet and 12.3 for Moore
* For reference, the Packers had 5 players with a PFF route grade over 70, the Ravens and Texans had 6
​
* **Of the 16 players that had more than one target from Fields this season, only 5 had a PFF pass route grade over 60. Moore was the only wide receiver.**
* The players other than Moore and Kmet were RB Khalil Herbert, RB Roschon Johnson, and TE Mercedes Lewis
* Fields' stats targeting these three receivers: 79.4% COMP / 2 TD / 1 INT / 372 YDS / 91.32 RTG
* The completion% is high and yards are low, likely due to the fact that the average depth of target for both runningbacks was under a yard.
* Panthers, Chiefs and Giants had 8 players with a PFF route grade over 60
​
* [**The 16 best receiving teams and their QB by PFF**](https://imgur.com/a/3UMuVD5)
* This is really just for context, but it does a decent job of demonstrating which QBs have help.
​
**So, A lot to look at here.**
**Mooney had a season-ending ligament tear in his ankle last season, which hopefully explains why his PFF route grade dropped 10 points from last year to this year.**
**While criticism can be made that Fields can't get to his second read, there is a pretty feasible possibility that his second and third reads were infrequently good options this season.**
​
​
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
**"Fields can't throw with anticipation and refuses to throw into tight windows"** has also been said quite a lot.
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
​
**Unfortunately, only the Bears coaching should have a true answer to this. No stat will ever get into their QB room and be able to tell us what the exact play was, and where they wanted Fields to throw it. Because of that, I'll just do what I can based off a few highlights and some PFF stats.**
​
* **Tape:** There certainly are throws that Fields puts into tight windows. But, just a few film clips won't answer if he does it as much as he should.
* [Exhibit
far.
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**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
#
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**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# DA BEARS:
​
* **Career Record**
* Fields is 10-28 in his career as a starter
* In 2022, before the Bears traded Roquan Smith, they were 3-5. After the trade the Bears went 0-9 and allowed 31.3 points per game.
* In 2022 the Chiefs led the league in points per game with 29.2.
* Two weeks later, Darnell Mooney had a season-ending leg injury.
* The Bears have won 25% of games that Fields has had 4+ total touchdowns
* In those games, Fields has only 1 interception and 1 fumble (the fumble was lost)
* In 5 games, Fields has had 100+ rushing yards. All of those games were losses.
* Fields had two turnovers in those 5 games
* The Bears have also won only two games that Fields has had 300+ total yards
* He averages 2.625 total TD and 1 turnover in these games
* Fields has had 9 games with a 75+ QBR. Only two games were wins.
​
* **Luke Getsy**
* It honestly looks like Getsy did his best to break Fields. He was OC from 2022-23, and his prior NFL experience was with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
* I'm going to go more in depth in to the Bears' scheme later in the post, but I do want to say I think there is a general consensus that Getsy was a bad OC.
* Getsy's playcalling this year was rather bizarre, everything just felt very predictable and easy to defend.
* For example, [this play](https://youtu.be/4LUIkguImng?si=hVStFQwj5Pv8d3IB&t=493) was the result of three consecutive screen passes being called.
* Also, any game Fields was highly pressured it seemed like Getsy had bad gameplans.
* For instance, vs the Vikings week 12 he called *SIXTEEN* passes behind the line of scrimmage. The 2023 vikings blitzed a lot, and instead of attacking the space vacated by the linebackers the gameplan was screens, where there still is man coverage. If you notice on this [pass chart](https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/pass/team/2023/12/justin-fields/FIE769504), there only were 3 completions 10+ yards down the field. 2 of these 3 came on the game-winning FG drive.
* Week 15 vs the Browns, Fields was pressured in 64.4% of dropbacks. Again, it was clear you could see Getsy trying to counter the pressure, but this time he was trying to ease pressure by stretching the field with deep routes. What ended up happening is that Fields was left to die in the pocket and he was getting pressured before the receivers even turned around. [Film example](https://imgur.com/a/poUrOfW) (the Browns nose tackle makes a really nice jump on this play, but watch the receivers)
* Overall point is these were specific instances where the gameplan set Fields up for failure.
​
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
#
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**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS:
Now this is the really juicy part of the post.
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# Important question #1: Is Justin Fields capable of being an NFL-caliber passer?
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
**IMPORTANT QUESTION #1A: Is Fields worse than an average passer?**
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
​
**I believe the answer is a resounding no, just because of how good he was with DJ Moore. Additionally, he didn't have bad interception numbers last year.**
​
**I know I said this earlier, but when Fields targeted Moore he had 8 TD / 0 INT / 74%
A deep dive into the argument for keeping Justin Fields
**Edit: This is a hella long post.**
I made movies and animated some stuff in high school, **would you guys rather I just made a 10-20 minute long video so you guys can actually see all the information?** I tried to format it to make it easy to read, but tbh I wouldn't want to read all this myself. I can probably get the bulk of the information into a 20 minute video, and I could probably get that out pretty quick after the super bowl. **Definitely PM me if you wanna see something like that**
​
​
**Ok so I want to start this off by saying the intentions of this post aren't really to sway your opinion one way or the other.**
**Instead, I am just trying to provide some in-depth context for any non-Bears fans or people who don't intensely analyse the Bears much why the decision of what to do with the #1 overall pick this year isn't as straightforward as it seems.**
**The purpose of this post is for me to provide information, and for you to come to your own conclusion. I think sports media in general has a pretty bad case of groupthink, but reddit is especially bad at it.**
​
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**Prelude:**
* **Justin Fields is a very unique player.** If you want to find highlights that make him look like a top 7 QB, there are plenty of instances on film. If you want to say he misses reads and bails out of the pocket early, there also are too many instances on film.
* **My point is this: whatever narrative there is about Justin Fields, there probably is film to back it up, good or bad. There isn't some clear answer you are going to find by saying "just watch the film bro", and then only looking at 3-4 clips.**
​
* **How I'm going to set up this post:**
* First I'm going to go through the undeniably good, and then the undeniably bad. Then I'll go through the difficult situation in Chicago a bit and address some very important questions.
* Also, I'm going to compare Fields to Lamar, Stroud, and Love a lot in this post. The reasons for this is because Lamar just won his second MVP, and Lamar is the type of QB that Fields could elevate to. I'm including Stroud because the Bears could've had him, and Love because of how quickly he developed (and because of all teams ofc he's on the packers).
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**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# THE GOOD:
​
* **Lets start off with the obvious, it's hard to argue he's not top 3 all time in terms of a rushing QB.**
* An effective rushing QB will always be very valuable from a scheming perspective, as you can get linebackers to play the QB and not a RB, they'll break to coverage slower, and you can tie up a QB spy and cause more one on one matchups with your receivers.
* Plays like [this](https://imgur.com/a/FTvWnAO) and [this](https://imgur.com/a/PMQxxrM) are proof of defenses overcompensating for Fields' rushing threat
* Only 3 QBs have ever had a 1,000 yard rushing season, he is one of them.
* He holds the single-game QB rushing record with 178 yards
* Since 2021, Fields leads the entire league in yards per carry
* On third and fourth down, Fields has 9.2 yards per carry and 71 first downs on 104 carries.
* On those 71 first downs, he has 878 yards, 12.4 yards per carry and 5 TD
​
* **DJ Moore.**
* Fields was *elite* with DJ Moore this year. 8 TD / 0 INT / 74% COMP / 1,109 YDS / 139.07 RTG / 97.1 QBR in 13 games (realistically like 12.5 because Fields was injured and didn't finish week 6)
* Moore's previous season high was 1,193 yards
* This comes out to 88.7 yards per game and 11.4 yards per target. If Fields had been healthy every game this season and maintained this average, Moore would've had 1,508 yards, 10 TD, and tied the Bears single-season receiving record
* If you exclude the numbers from week 6 when Fields dislocated his thumb and week 16 when Moore missed part of the game with an
"What Did I Do Wrong?" - Antonio Gates Questions Shocking Hall of Fame Snub
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/what-did-i-do-wrong-antonio-gates-questions-shocking-hall-of-fame-snub/
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[Highlight] Kirk Cousins busts a move at NFL Honors
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[Highlight] 2x MVP WINNER LAMAR JACKSON.
https://redd.it/1amf1oo
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I’m a journalist who spent months investigating how the NFL concussion settlement routinely fails to deliver money and medical care to former players suffering from dementia and CTE. Ask me anything.
Hi r/NFL, I’m Will Hobson and I’m a Washington Post reporter who published an investigation into the NFL concussion settlement, which promised to compensate former players suffering from dementia, CTE and other ailments linked to football. Some of you might recall some previous discussion in this sub about the piece: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1afknq8/wapo\_the\_nfl\_concussion\_settlement\_promised/
My story is based on hundreds of interviews and thousands of pages of medical and legal records. Here are some of its findings:
The settlement’s definition for dementia requires more impairment than the standard definition used in the United States. Several doctors who have evaluated players told The Post that if they used the settlement’s definition in regular care, they would routinely fail to diagnose dementia in ailing patients.
At least 14 players have failed to qualify for settlement money or medical care and then died, only to have CTE confirmed via autopsy.
In more than 70 cases reviewed by The Post, players were diagnosed with dementia by board-certified doctors, only to see their claims denied by the administrative law firm that oversees the settlement.
The NFL’s network of settlement doctors has been beset by systemic administrative breakdowns since its inception. Former players suffering from dementia wait, on average, more than 15 months just to see doctors and get the records they need to file a claim.
I encourage you to read my full piece, which features eight parts in all. In the meantime, ask me anything. I'll start answering questions at 3 p.m. ET.
PROOF: https://imgur.com/a/iovzDdA
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[Highlight] With all the attention on Kelce shoving Andy, does anyone remember Reid shoulder checking Kelce when he got heated during the Raiders game?
https://redd.it/1ar9a8j
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Patriots ‘Dynasty’ documentary reveals how bad Brady-Belichick relationship had gotten
https://theathletic.com/5272331/2024/02/14/patriots-dynasty-documentary-tom-brady-bill-belichick/
https://redd.it/1ar4yyb
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Chiefs Super Bowl 2024 parade live updates: Terrifying scene at Kansas City Super Bowl parade as multiple people shot
https://nypost.com/2024/02/14/sports/chiefs-super-bowl-2024-parade-live-updates-highlights-celebrations/amp/
https://redd.it/1aqx3ky
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[highlight] WHY DOES PACHECO HAVE A GOAT 😭😭😭
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When the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs play next season, it will be the first time the Coach of the College Football National Championship team plays the coach of the Super Bowl Championship team the following season.
I don’t know if this has been posted before, but when the Chargers play the Chiefs it’ll be the first time the College Championship coach plays the Super Bowl winning coach the following season. Just a cool fun fact
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with Keyshawn Johnson
* Cole Kmet said "[continuity](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1454nFPi0o)" contributes to success in the NFL and it was evident with how the Bears played in the second half of the season
* S Jaquan Brisker has been vocal on twitter, reposting a lot of Fields highlights and posting "[Thats my quarterback](https://twitter.com/JaquanBrisker/status/1749184678949494803)". He also said [this](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qy5SFhuRcIE).
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**~~---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
**To sum it all up:**
The big idea is that everywhere the Bears have holes in their roster is where Fields has holes in his game. Where the Bears don't have holes in their roster (wr1), Fields is *really* good.
The other main point is that Justin Fields still has a pretty long highlight reel ([here are 30 mins of genuine highlights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFpyUpgpxcI)) despite all the things he has had to overcome. He has had two bad coaches calling plays, and most of his highlights are from talents that can't really be coached.
Last year, I think it was fair to say the passing issues were equally on bad receivers and Fields' processing. But, when he put up passing numbers like he did with Moore this year, it paints the picture that the Bears' passing issues this year were more due to lack of WR depth.
Having a 130+ passer rating with over 150 pass attempts when targeting your two best players, putting plenty of highlights on tape, *and* averaging running for 60 yards a game through his whole career is pretty insane, and it's why Fields truthers exist.
**~~---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
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Also, seriously, if you guys would rather me compress all this into a 10-20 minute video I can definitely do that, just lmk or PM
https://redd.it/1an1u41
@NFL_reddit
this? It's hard to tell. Stroud is at .2 sacks above average, and he doesn't seem to have a sack problem. It seems clear that Fields does take more sacks than he should, but it's difficult to say the Bears passing game struggles because Fields takes one more sack than average every three games or so.**
​
**Additionally, it looks like the Bears pass protection allows 4 to 5** **more pressures per game than they should. This certainly is a likely factor explaining why Fields sometimes bails from the pocket early. Two starters on the offensive line also had a PFF pass blocking grade below 50, with one being .7 points away from being under 40. That seems pretty bad.**
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**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# Important question #3: Who is responsible for Fields' slow development? Is it a Fields problem, or a coaching problem?
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
​
**First, I want to address the fact that even though he didn't put up insane numbers, Fields definitely has improved as a passer.**
||Yards|PFF pass grade|TWP%|BTT%|INT%|Pressure to sack %|ADJ. COMP%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2022 (15 GM)|2,242|54.4|4.4%|3.8%|3.5%|27.1%|71.7%|
|2023 (13 GM)|2,562|67.1|3.4%|5.5%|2.4%|19.3%|74.3%|
​
​
**Scheme: The Bears scheme this season honestly might deserve it's own post.**
**If you have the time, I suggest you watch the Justin Fields QB school videos on youtube. JT O'Sullivan knows a hell of a lot more about NFL coaching and being a NFL QB than I do.** I've watched all of them, and tbh I think they do a really good job of demonstrating the things that Fields does poorly, but also the poor coaching and scheme that is doing him no favors.
**Some tape:**
* [FIlm example #1](https://imgur.com/a/k4aeavT) (I also want to say I didn't pick this play because Mooney falls over, I was just looking for a 3rd down where Fields scrambles)
* [Film example #2](https://imgur.com/a/Tr6jWuW)
* [Film example #3](https://imgur.com/a/2jJP6Xd)
​
​
**Luke Getsy:**
In 2022 Getsy's offense was pretty damn bad. Yardage, scoring, and overall effectiveness were all at the bottom of the league. While they excelled in rushing, that probably was only due to Fields having 1,100 yards, and the passing game was horrible.
The biggest problem with Getsy is he never really adapted the game plan to fit the quarterback's style. It shouldn't take a 4 weeks of the season to figure out your athletic freak of a quarterback shouldn't be sitting in the pocket all game. Their passing game was practically nonexistent in the first few weeks because of this.
​
**What gets more interesting is thinking about where this went in 2023 after the Bears added DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, Robert Tonyan, D'Onta Foreman and Nate Davis to the offense through trades and free agency.**
​
* **WR** **DJ Moore:**
* Moore definitely got better
* **His PFF offense grade jumped from 73.9 last year to 89.4 this year, and his best year in Carolina had a 82.2 offense grade.**
* **RB D'Onta Foreman:**
* Foreman spent two years in Houston, two in Tennessee, and one Carolina before coming to the Bears this year.
* **Forman had 4.4 yards per carry in his career before coming to Chicago. He had 3.9 yards per carry this year.**
* **However, Foreman still played well for the Bears this year. He pretty much was the entire offense week 7 vs the Raiders, and he had three 80 yard games this season. He had a 74.0 offense grade, and his previous career high was last season with 73.1. He had 4.5 yards per carry last season.**
* **RG Nate Davis:**
* Nate Davis played four seasons in Tennessee before signing with the Bears in free agency this year.
* **His PFF pass-blocking grade dropped from 66.8 last year to 47.8 this year, and his offense grade dropped from 70.6 to 52.9.**
* Of these 5 players, Davis was the only one
A](https://youtu.be/Jds9aeNJwdE?si=dCqk01uv91AlLA_t&t=127)
* [Exhibit B](https://youtu.be/JA_NVR-xwNI?si=pXwIgRbjJdwPQ53D&t=580)
* [Exhibit C](https://youtu.be/4LUIkguImng?si=BLd52wsOivsHaQTJ&t=435)
* [Exhibit D](https://youtu.be/lKIwhs35wXA?si=xQBTORB31DLcWQ6E&t=85) (I know I included this play already, but Fields gets hit on this play and Jesse Bates is in coverage, he had the 3rd best PFF man coverage grade in the entire league)
* [Exhibit E](https://youtu.be/V696kcbe-VA?si=tI78IzNKYcP4fsCQ&t=711)
​
* **Big time throws and turnover-worthy plays**
* Turnover worthy plays are dangerous throws or a fumble in a dangerous situation, like in the pocket or with multiple defenders nearby. In this example, it's filtered to only include throwing plays so any TWP is a dangerous throw.
* **Big-time throws are throws "with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window"**
||Big Time Throw% (Total BTT)|BTT% on intermediate throws (BTT)|BTT% on deep throws (BTT)|TWP%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Justin Fields|**5.5%**|**5.5%**|**32.7%**|**3.4%**|
|C.J. Stroud|**4.3%**|**2.0%**|**31.3%**|**2.9%**|
|Jordan Love|**5.6%**|**7.1%**|**27.8%**|**2.6%**|
|Lamar Jackson|**4.7%**|**7.6%**|**21.4%**|**2.5%**|
From the top 20 QBs in BTT%:
|Best value|6.0%|10.1%|38.2%|1.8%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Median value|4.3%|5.9%|24.0%|3.0%|
|Worst value|2.6%|1.0%|10.0%|5.8%|
​
* **Redzone Efficiency:** Theoretically, throws in the redzone require more anticipation and force tighter throws, because defenders are more compressed and receivers have less room to get open.
* Before his thumb injury, Fields had a 88.5 PFF passing grade in the redzone, 8 pass TD, 0 int, and 4 BTT. [Source](https://twitter.com/PFF_Bears/status/1712492854801465582?t=-af-Y0NgInNddQHiZHd7Bw&s=19)
* He finished the season with 11 TD and 1 INT in the redzone, and the pick was the interception vs the Cardinals that I went through earlier.
* I think those stats came from the PFF for business analytics, and I think those break down individual plays where I can only see games and seasons. So, I don't know what his redzone PFF passing grade ended up at by the end of the season.
* Fields has been pretty good in the redzone, in 2022 his redzone EPA was second in the league, only behind Mahomes. His rushing threat helps a lot in the redzone though.
​
​
**The most telling stat here is BTT on intermediate throws, as 10-20 yard throws have to be layered between linebackers and safeties. To be honest, I don't think completion drops 20% from Fields' WR1 to WR2 and WR3 because Fields throws into a tight window .4% less than the median.**
**I do want to reiterate, I don't think this analysis gives the whole picture. But, the same thing goes for turnover-worthy plays, I don't think the lack of production is because he is making .4% more bad throws.**
​
​
​
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# Important question #2: Does he take so many sacks because he holds on to the ball too long, or because of a subpar pass protection?
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
​
* **By PFF, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this year with 3.4 seconds on average.**
* Lamar had the second longest with 3.2, then Hurts, then Russell Wilson, then Dobbs, then Mahomes. All of these QBs have more than 3 seconds on average before throwing. Time to throw does seem to get longer for more mobile QBs.
​
* **Also according to PFF, Fields was pressured in a league-worst 48.9% of his snaps this season.**
* 19.3% of the times Fields was pressured this season he was sacked.
* Tua was at 19.3% as well, Stroud was at 19.6%, Burrow was at 19.5%, Lawrence was at 18.4%, and Lamar was at 18.1%. None of those QBs really have a reputation of taking more sacks than they should.
* However, for
COMP / 1,109 YDS / 139.07 RTG on 97 pass attempts.**
**If Fields didn't miss any games and he kept the averages with Moore he would've had 11 TD / 0 INT / 1,508 YDS / 74% COMP / 139.33 RTG.**
* **I cannot stress enough how absurdly good a 139 passer rating through 13 games is.**
* To put it in perspective: In 2020 with MVP Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams had 18 TD / 3 INT / 78.8% COMP / 1,374 YDS / 136.9 RTG.
* 2020 Adams and Rodgers had 9.41 yards per target, 11.9 yards per reception, 9.4 air yards per target and 5.1 YAC/reception.
* 2023 Moore and Fields had 11.43 yards per target, 15.4 yards per reception, 12.3 air yards per target and 5.9 YAC/reception.
* **Since 2018, only 4 receivers have maintained a 130+ passer rating through 13 or more games, with at least 90 targets in a single season.**
* [**SOURCE**](https://imgur.com/a/uwucArI)
* The data isn't perfect, as it would only let me go back to 2018.
* Davante is on the list twice for 2020, because his streak was through 14 games
* The QBs of these seasons: Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady
^(I think this should be obvious, but DJ isn't on the list because his 13 game span with Fields had a break in the middle for Fields' injury.)
* **By PFF there were 8 receivers with a better route grade than Moore this season.** [**Here**](https://imgur.com/a/TdXCuUt) **are the stats of those receivers when targeted** **(pls click its actually insane)**
​
​
* **Interceptions:** I think a pretty immediate assumption that if a QB isn't good and they can't read a defense, they throw a lot of picks. This wasn't extreme for Fields this season, as he had 9 int in 13 games.
* Of his 9 Interceptions, two were on a hail mary, two were tipped, one was on a RB screen, one was on a Chase Claypool drop, and 3 were poor decisions/routes jumped by the defender
* Fields came back from a thumb injury week 12, and weeks 12-18 he had only one interception that wasn't a hail mary.
* This was the pick: [**THE INT BREAKDOWN**](https://imgur.com/a/1oFl9W5) **(pls click)**
* **SERIOUSLY CLICK THE LINK ABOVE**
* [Clips of the other 8 ints](https://imgur.com/a/ULQViE5) (pls click this too)
* **He also had a 2.4 int% on the season, which is pretty typical**. Tua, Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy had 2.5%, Mahomes had 2.3%, and Allen had 3.1%.
​
​
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
**IMPORTANT QUESTION #1B: Why can Fields produce so much with Moore, but not his other receivers? Is it because they aren't open, or can Fields not get them the ball?**
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
​
​
**First, lets look at production.**
I think a lot of his numbers look much worse than they are because he has relatively few pass attempts, and because he missed some games this year.
​
* **Total Yards and Total TD stats:**
||Pass yds|Rush yds|Pass TD|INT|TOT YDS / TOT TD / TOV|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2023 stats if Fields played 16 games\*|3,338|841|22 (21.64)|10 (10.35)|4,179 / 28 / 15|
|Lamar Jackson's 2023 stats (16 games)|3,678|821|24|7|4,499 / 29 / 9|
^(\*averages used included week 6 stats, but they were weighted proportionately less to time played and pass attempts as he was injured in that game)
* 3,338 passing yards isn't good at all, but 4,179 total yards would've been 14th in the league among QBs. If you extended these averages to 17 games, Fields would've had 4,440 total yards.
* Stroud had 4,275 total yards in 15 games, and Love had 4,406 in 17 games.
​
* **Here are the passing numbers of 2023 QBs with a similar amount of pass attempts:**
||ATT|YDS|TD|INT|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Justin Fields|369|2,562|16|9|
|Joe Burrow|365|2,309|15|6|
|Zach Wilson|368|2,271|8|7|
|Mac Jones|345|2,120|10|12|
|Desmond Ridder|388|2,836|12|12|
​
​
~~^(-----------------------------------------------------------------------)~~
**"Fields can't get to his
ankle injury, it comes out to 98.5 yards per game and 12.1 yards per target. This year that would have been the 3rd best YPG in the league, only behind CeeDee and Tyreek.
​
* **Escaping sacks, pressure, and breaking tackles**
* [Exhibit A](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRh583MRo3c)
* [Exhibit B](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWeCYylX4-g)
* [Exhibit C](https://youtu.be/Jds9aeNJwdE?si=VPl6ZJ8LZRzNmmVV&t=111)
* [Exhibit D](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVfzDInYw0A)
* [Exhibit E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuCWfPabKWY%20-)
* [Exhibit F](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgzXlHmxYYM)
* [Exhibit G](https://youtu.be/wlGsBV4GWG0?si=KFjsMVqj5w2QKBqA&t=3)
* [Exhibit H](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVyIfPxMcD8)
* [Exhibit I](https://youtu.be/NaUCxI7jNzA?si=aIOSC_imcFoXCQFJ&t=84)
​
* **Arm talent:** The arm talent for Fields is certainly there when he does throw. He consistently hits guys in the chest downfield and has one of the prettiest deep balls that I've seen.
* [Exhibit A](https://youtu.be/lKIwhs35wXA?si=OlBOQaHbvhgLJdl5&t=100)
* [Exhibit B](https://youtu.be/Jds9aeNJwdE?si=L5wNENBEXzYl2Wsm&t=538)
* [Exhibit C](https://youtu.be/pOoKkiHGVoY?si=NEDH4Fgg1lvVE87x&t=555)
* [Exhibit D](https://youtu.be/1ctVhkzYSIo?si=Y3xpHmvt0mgs2p8z&t=21)
* [Exhibit E](https://youtu.be/1ctVhkzYSIo?si=kPpudabDpKFtrvxD&t=475)
* [Exhibit F](https://youtu.be/1ctVhkzYSIo?si=BGTRMkeYPfAVvQK7&t=274)
* [Exhibit G](https://youtu.be/1ctVhkzYSIo?si=IEshOc2-aT3AnfzL&t=405)
* [Exhibit H](https://youtu.be/1ctVhkzYSIo?si=6uCnIFhKPbzQLpp9&t=618)
* [Exhibit I](https://youtu.be/fu8fX9WhcMY?si=lWrM2ZeH1oG8Kr8o&t=182) (I didn't realize this play was from 2021 but whatever its a good throw)
* A few throws that probably should have been caught:
* [Exhibit A](https://imgur.com/a/2u9LLuK)
* [Exhibit B](https://youtu.be/pOoKkiHGVoY?si=bSpo1t66DjzKHb91&t=746) (imo this is a really good throw, the receiver just misread the ball and slowed up. [This clip](https://imgur.com/a/Eb9a3JW) has a better angle of that)
* [Exhibit C](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aStQFmbzDsM)
​
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
#
​
​
​
​
​
**~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~**
# THE BAD:
​
* **Fumbles:** The Justin Fields fumble stats are really weird. He has 38 career fumbles (😳), but he only has lost 11 of them.
* I'm not sure if the numbers I looked at were 100% right, but through statmuse it seems like league-wide around 56.1% of fumbles result in a turnover. That percentage is probably worse for QBs. For Fields, 28.9% of his fumbles are turnovers.
* This seems like a remarkably large difference, and I'm not really sure why. The Bears have had center issues the past few years, so there is a small chance that a few botched snaps have been scored as QB fumbles.
* This season, he had 4 lost fumbles, for 13 total turnovers. This is 1 turnover per game, which isn't good, but not terrible. This season Mahomes had 1.06 per game, Tua had 1.12, Lawrence had 1.31, Cousins had 1.14, Hurts had 1.18, Goff had .94, and Purdy had .81
* He also has 41 total turnovers in 40 games, 38 starts.
​
* **Sacks:** This is the most obvious thing holding Justin Fields back.
* He was sacked 44 times this season with a 10.6% sack rate. That's 3rd worst in the league for qualified QBs. Additionally, the 10.6% sack rate was the best of his career. He has been sacked 135 times in his career.
​
* **Passing** **Stats:**
* I think this is really my biggest concern with Fields, there are just some games where he just doesn't do anything. He has yet to pass for 3,000 yards in a season, and only has one game with 300+ passing yards.
​
* **Injuries**
* He has missed time to injury every year of his career so
A deep dive into the argument for keeping Justin Fields
Edit: This is a hella long post.
I made movies and animated some stuff in high school, would you guys rather I just made a 10-20 minute long video so you guys can actually see all the information? I tried to format it to make it easy to read, but tbh I wouldn't want to read all this myself. I can probably get the bulk of the information into a 20 minute video, and I could probably get that out pretty quick after the super bowl. Definitely PM me if you wanna see something like that
​
​
Ok so I want to start this off by saying the intentions of this post aren't really to sway your opinion one way or the other.
Instead, I am just trying to provide some in-depth context for any non-Bears fans or people who don't intensely analyse the Bears much why the decision of what to do with the #1 overall pick this year isn't as straightforward as it seems.
The purpose of this post is for me to provide information, and for you to come to your own conclusion. I think sports media in general has a pretty bad case of groupthink, but reddit is especially bad at it.
​
​
​
Prelude:
Justin Fields is a very unique player. If you want to find highlights that make him look like a top 7 QB, there are plenty of instances on film. If you want to say he misses reads and bails out of the pocket early, there also are too many instances on film.
My point is this: whatever narrative there is about Justin Fields, there probably is film to back it up, good or bad. There isn't some clear answer you are going to find by saying "just watch the film bro", and then only looking at 3-4 clips.
​
How I'm going to set up this post:
First I'm going to go through the undeniably good, and then the undeniably bad. Then I'll go through the difficult situation in Chicago a bit and address some very important questions.
Also, I'm going to compare Fields to Lamar, Stroud, and Love a lot in this post. The reasons for this is because Lamar just won his second MVP, and Lamar is the type of QB that Fields could elevate to. I'm including Stroud because the Bears could've had him, and Love because of how quickly he developed (and because of all teams ofc he's on the packers).
​
​
​
​
​
~~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------~~
# THE GOOD:
​
Lets start off with the obvious, it's hard to argue he's not top 3 all time in terms of a rushing QB.
An effective rushing QB will always be very valuable from a scheming perspective, as you can get linebackers to play the QB and not a RB, they'll break to coverage slower, and you can tie up a QB spy and cause more one on one matchups with your receivers.
Plays like this and this are proof of defenses overcompensating for Fields' rushing threat
Only 3 QBs have ever had a 1,000 yard rushing season, he is one of them.
He holds the single-game QB rushing record with 178 yards
Since 2021, Fields leads the entire league in yards per carry
On third and fourth down, Fields has 9.2 yards per carry and 71 first downs on 104 carries.
On those 71 first downs, he has 878 yards, 12.4 yards per carry and 5 TD
​
DJ Moore.
Fields was elite with DJ Moore this year. 8 TD / 0 INT / 74% COMP / 1,109 YDS / 139.07 RTG / 97.1 QBR in 13 games (realistically like 12.5 because Fields was injured and didn't finish week 6)
Moore's previous season high was 1,193 yards
This comes out to 88.7 yards per game and 11.4 yards per target. If Fields had been healthy every game this season and maintained this average, Moore would've had 1,508 yards, 10 TD, and tied the Bears single-season receiving record
If you exclude the numbers from week 6 when Fields dislocated his thumb and week 16 when Moore missed part of the game with an
OJ Simpson diagnosed with cancer, undergoing chemo
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John Urschel didn't tell Ravens he was a full-time Ph.D. student at MIT while in the NFL
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NFL Honors Official Thread
Discuss the show and all the goings on here. I'll update with winners below.
Host: Hingle McCringleberry
From Las Vegas, NV
Network(s): CBS, NFL Network, Paramount+ and NFL+
Starts at 8PM EST
# Awards
AP Most Valuable Player
[Josh Allen](https://www.nfl.com/players/josh-allen-4/), Buffalo Bills quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens quarterback - WINNER
[Christian McCaffrey](https://www.nfl.com/players/christian-mccaffrey/), San Francisco 49ers running back
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys quarterback
[Brock Purdy](https://www.nfl.com/players/brock-purdy/), San Francisco 49ers quarterback
## AP Defensive Player of the Year
DaRon Bland, Dallas Cowboys cornerback
[Maxx Crosby](https://www.nfl.com/players/maxx-crosby/), Las Vegas Raiders defensive end
Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns defensive end - WINNER
[Micah Parsons](https://www.nfl.com/players/micah-parsons/), Dallas Cowboys linebacker
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker
## AP Offensive Player of the Year
[Tyreek Hill](https://www.nfl.com/players/tyreek-hill/), Miami Dolphins wide receiver
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens quarterback
[CeeDee Lamb](https://www.nfl.com/players/ceedee-lamb/), Dallas Cowboys wide receiver
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers running back - WINNER
[Dak Prescott](https://www.nfl.com/players/dak-prescott/), Dallas Cowboys quarterback
## AP Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions running back
[Sam LaPorta](https://www.nfl.com/players/sam-laporta/), Detroit Lions tight end
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver
[Bijan Robinson](https://www.nfl.com/players/bijan-robinson/), Atlanta Falcons running back
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans quarterback - WINNER
## AP Defensive Rookie of the Year
[Will Anderson](https://www.nfl.com/players/will-anderson-jr/), Houston Texans defensive end - WINNER
Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle
[Joey Porter Jr.](https://www.nfl.com/players/joey-porter-jr/), Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback
Kobie Turner, Los Angeles Rams defensive tackler
[Devon Witherspoon](https://www.nfl.com/players/devon-witherspoon/), Seattle Seahawks cornerback
## AP Comeback Player of the Year
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns quarterback - WINNER
[Damar Hamlin](https://www.nfl.com/players/damar-hamlin/), Buffalo Bills safety
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback
[Matthew Stafford](https://www.nfl.com/players/matthew-stafford/), Los Angeles Rams quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins quarterback
## AP Coach of the Year
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns - WINNER
## AP Assistant Coach of the Year
Ben Johnson, Detroit Lions offensive coordinator
Mike Macdonald, Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator
Todd Monken, Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator
Jim Schwartz, Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator - WINNER
Bobby Slowik, Houston Texans offensive coordinator
## Walter Payton Man of the Year
Winner - Cameron Heyward
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