🔼 AUDUSD seems ready to grow further
AUDUSD rose by 0.4% on Monday, continuing its growth after last week's downward correction. The pair rose towards 0.66600 and may continue moving upwards as the bullish momentum is strong.
👉 Possible effects for traders
AUDUSD now has the chance to establish a firm bullish trend in the medium term. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn't plan to cut interest rates, which are currently at 4.35%, until May 2025. 'Today's data will keep the RBA confident they are making progress in reducing excess demand,' said Taylor Nugent, senior economist at NAB. 'We see an improvement in real household income growth in the second half of the year, as wage growth outpaces the slowdown in inflation and is supported by income tax cuts,' he added.
Thus, divergence in Australian and U.S. monetary policies favours the Australian dollar (AUD). Easing geopolitical concerns and higher-than-expected inflation in Australia also support the national currency. Additionally, steady demand for non-ferrous metals can improve AUD trading conditions. Moreover, stronger data on the business activity index in China may become a driver for AUDUSD's exchange rate. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) started to decline despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, positively affecting AUDUSD.
Since the beginning of the year, AUDUSD has been moving sideways within the 0.64500–0.67000 range. Breaking this range will set the main trend for AUDUSD. Many factors indicate the pair may break above these levels and continue moving upwards. More data may provide additional details about the possible directions of the Australian dollar. The Australian Monthly Consumer Price Indicator (CPI) will be released on Wednesday and may prompt a change in RBA policy. Higher-than-expected figures may push AUDUSD higher, while weaker numbers may trigger a downward correction. Today's U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report at 2:00 p.m. UTC may also cause above-normal volatility.
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📈 Gold rose on a weaker U.S. dollar and persisting geopolitical tensions
Gold (XAU) gained 0.72% on Monday as the U.S. dollar (USD) weakened due to the U.S. and U.K. bank holidays.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes revealed that the monetary policy aims to maintain the current benchmark rate. Moreover, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' discussions hinted at possible further hikes. Traders are increasingly sceptical that the U.S. central bank will lower rates more than once in 2024, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating about a 62% chance of a rate cut by November.
Meanwhile, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East bolstered precious metals' safe-haven appeal after reports of an Israeli airstrike in Rafah. Consequently, global leaders urged the enforcement of a World Court order to halt Israel's assault. Additionally, according to official data, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong fell by 38% in April compared to the previous month. Besides being an inflation hedge, gold is also in high demand during periods of geopolitical uncertainty or conflict. Thus, gold may still rise towards new highs if Middle East tensions continue to unfold.
XAUUSD moved sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the U.S. Consumer Confidence report will be released at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Stronger-than-expected figures, indicating an increase in consumer spending, will likely decrease the probability of a rate cut by the Fed and put bearish pressure on XAUUSD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures may trigger a move upwards.
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EURUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
EURUSD retested the resistance level of 1.08550
👉 Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.08550.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.08544.
Set your stop loss at 1.08725 above the previous high ($1.81 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08363 ($1.81 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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#weekly_outlook
🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions
Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 27 – 31 May from Vito Henjoto. Stay informed and trade wisely.
We wish you a successful trading week!
AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
AUDUSD retested the resistance level of 0.66500
👉 Level explanation
AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 0.66500.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66475.
Set your stop loss at 0.66609 above the previous high ($1.34 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66341 ($1.34 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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💸 GBP rebounded despite weak U.K. economic data
The British pound (GBP) rebounded towards 1.27400 despite weaker-than-expected Retail Sales figures and preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.K. Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a sharp decline in retail sales numbers for April. The data is a leading inflation indicator—it reflects the current status of consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth. A substantial decline suggests that the high U.K. interest rates have significantly impacted consumer spending, and price pressures will ease further. Weaker economic data could encourage the Bank of England (BOE) to start easing monetary policy earlier than previously expected.
Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened as robust U.S. economic data further decreased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes showed that some officials were willing to consider tightening monetary policy again if inflation spikes. As a result, markets now expect the first rate cut this year only in December, shifting it from September. Still, the U.S. dollar (USD) slipped against most major currencies on Friday as traders booked profits following recent gains.
Today, GBPUSD was essentially unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.K. and U.S. markets were closed due to bank holidays. Thus, trading volumes today will be low, and thin liquidity may heighten price movements if unexpected news emerges. Therefore, traders should remain cautious when trading today.
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📈 Strong PMI data pushed EURUSD higher
The euro (EUR) gained 0.28% on Friday, supported by the stronger-than-expected preliminary eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report for May and profit-taking on the U.S. dollar (USD).
👉Possible effects for traders
EURUSD rose as expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) slightly slipped. The rate cut in June is still priced in with over 80% probability, but the projected easing by the end of the year has decreased towards 55 basis points (bps), down from nearly 70 bps last week. This outlook supports EURUSD. Traders will closely watch eurozone inflation data on Friday for indications of the inflation pace in Europe. A rise in services inflation above 4% could prompt the ECB to skip the rate cut in June, which would be positive for the euro. However, ECB policymaker Piero Cipollone stated on Sunday that recent data supports a June rate cut. ECB President Christine Lagarde also expressed confidence in controlling eurozone inflation and indicated a likely rate cut next month.
Stronger U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might spark speculation of a delay in easing U.S. monetary policy this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors have now priced in a 50% chance of a rate cut in September, down from 64% a week ago. Investors also await the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 on Thursday. A stronger reading and other better-than-expected economic data could boost the U.S. dollar in the near term. On Friday, U.S. Durable Goods Orders figures increased by 0.7% month-over-month in April, following a revised 0.8% in March, which was stronger than the expected −0.8%.
EURUSD moved sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, volatility is likely to be relatively low as there are no major news releases, while the U.K. and U.S. banks will be closed due to holidays. EURUSD may continue its downward trend as ECB officials have sounded dovish lately, and the upcoming rate cut in June is widely expected.
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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD retested the support level of 68,300.00
👉 Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day. The pair moved down to the support level of 68,300.00.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 68,510.00.
Set your stop loss at 67,710.00 below the previous low ($8.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 69,310.00 ($8.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
EURUSD broke the resistance level of 1.08430
👉 Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.08495.
Set your stop loss at 1.08350 below the previous low ($1.45 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08640 ($1.45 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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GBPUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
GBPUSD formed a bullish Doji pattern
👉 General outlook
GBPUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.27140. Now, the price displays a bullish Doji pattern.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.27155.
Set your stop loss at 1.26920 below the previous low ($2.35 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27390 ($2.35 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
📝 Fundamental factors
The U.S. Durable Goods Orders report will be released in a few minutes and could affect this trade.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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📉 Gold lost 2% in a day due to better-than-expected U.S. data
Yesterday, gold (XAU) fell towards 2,328, marking a two-week low. Overall, XAUUSD lost 2.10% over the day.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The main reason for the drop is that investors are increasingly doubtful about a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September following the latest stronger-than-expected U.S. economic releases. For example, yesterday's S&P Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report showed that business activity was accelerating in May. Meanwhile, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits was lower than expected, indicating a stronger labour market. The strong economic data and discussion by some U.S. officials about raising interest rates further strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now increasingly sceptical that the Fed will lower rates more than once in 2024. However, some remain optimistic about XAUUSD's outlook. FX Empire analyst Christopher Lewis says the precious metal market remains bullish even though the market has 'sold off gold rather drastically' in the last few days. 'The market continues to enjoy central bank buying with it coming out and supporting it,' he added. Investors still want to diversify their portfolios with precious metals, and Lewis says he doesn't see the trend changing in the short term. 'So gold should continue to appreciate in value,' Lewis stated.
Gold rose today in the early Asian trading session. After yesterday's sharp drop, XAUUSD may correct upwards and rise towards 2,350. If the price breaks below the two-week low, it could fall further to 2,300. Two U.S. reports could affect the gold price today: Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 p.m. UTC and Consumer Sentiment at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Better-than-expected numbers will further decrease chances for a rate cut by the Fed this year, putting downward pressure on precious metals. Otherwise, gold may continue its upward trend.
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💸 Bitcoin drops by 1.72% amid profit-taking
Bitcoin dropped by 1.72% on Thursday as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved eight spot Ethereum exchange-traded-funds (ETFs).
👉 Possible effects for traders
Spot Ether ETFs received approval for their 19b-4 filings today, enabling them to be listed on their respective exchanges. However, applicants must first obtain approved S-1 registration statements before they can start trading. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart mentioned that S-1 approvals could come in a couple of weeks but also noted that the process could take longer, as it typically takes up to five months. The correction in BTCUSD was likely caused by profit-taking following the approval of the ETH ETF. This news had already been priced in earlier, and now participants are beginning to lock in their profits. The trigger for the correction was the release of better-than-expected U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports, which pushed the U.S. dollar higher.
Moreover, Bitcoin mining difficulty has increased by nearly 2%, reaching over 84.4 trillion, as the network's average hash rate surged past 600 exa-hashes per second. Bitcoin mining difficulty indicates how challenging it is to find a hash below a specified target. This rise coincides with growing optimism in the crypto market, driven by speculation about the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. Despite a minor 2% dip in BTCUSD over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's price continues to be in a weekly uptrend.
BTCUSD fell during the early European trading session. A crypto analyst known as BitQuant shared insights on the social media platform X, predicting significant growth for Bitcoin. BitQuant expects Bitcoin to reach 95,000, with a notable increase to 80,000 anticipated in May. However, BitQuant also forecasts a sharp decline from this local peak in June.
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#economic_calendar
These events may affect the market on 24 May.
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💸 ECB officials' comments support the euro
The euro (EUR) rose slightly yesterday as the U.S. dollar weakened.
👉 Possible effects for traders
EURUSD rose by 0.08% on Monday as U.S. markets were closed for the long holiday weekend. The market confidently expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates in June. Meanwhile, traders started to reconsider the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year as officials have sounded quite hawkish lately. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September, down significantly from over 68% a week ago.
The German IFO Business Climate Index missed expectations yesterday, coming in at 89.3 for May. The Current Economic Assessment Index also dropped from 88.9 in April towards 88.3, below the forecasted 89.9. The IFO Expectations Index, which reflects firms' projections for the next six months, rose towards 90.4 in May but still didn't reach the expected 90.5. However, the downbeat results of the German IFO survey didn't have much effect on EURUSD.
EURUSD rose sharply during the early European trading session following the speech of ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel. She said that 'QE may have weakened the transmission of monetary policy during the recent tightening cycle.' 'In a bank-based economy, targeted longer-term refinancing operations can provide substantial support with a smaller footprint,' she added. The market perceived these statements as a signal that the ECB might change its strategy, pushing the euro up. Today, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report will be released at 2:00 p.m. UTC. If figures indicate increased consumer spending, it will likely reduce the chances of a rate cut by the Fed and may trigger a correction in EURUSD. Conversely, the euro may continue rising on weaker-than-expected numbers.
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XAUUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
XAUUSD formed a bearish Engulfing pattern
👉 General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 2,352.00. Now, the price displays a bearish Engulfing pattern.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,349.00.
Set your stop loss at 2,356.96 above the previous high ($7.96 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,341.04 ($7.96 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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#economic_calendar
These events may affect the market on 28 May.
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USDJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart
USDJPY formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern
👉 Level explanation
USDJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 156.797.
Set your stop loss at 156.969 above the previous high ($1.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 156.625 ($1.10 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
XAUUSD formed a bearish Doji pattern
👉 Level explanation
XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 2,346.00.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,344.70.
Set your stop loss at 2,350.60 above the previous high ($5.90 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,338.80 ($5.90 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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📈 Gold slightly corrected upwards after a 3% decline
The gold (XAU) price fell 3.33% over the last week. However, XAUUSD rose slightly from 2,330 towards 2,340 on Friday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Gold fell too rapidly last week, so an upward correction, which happened on Friday, was expected. Market participants anticipate gold testing the 2,330 support level. Surprisingly, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders data, released on Friday, didn't have a strong effect on XAUUSD. Still, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 0.41% to 103.97. This decline followed weaker U.S. durable goods revisions and reduced one- and five-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan report.
Friday's data did little to boost investors' optimism about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) potential loosening of its monetary policy. Hawkish comments from Fed officials may lead to speculation about a delay in U.S. rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now see a 50% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September, down from 64% a week ago. Additionally, investors await the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report annualised for Q1, which will be released this Thursday. Stronger-than-expected readings could bolster the greenback in the near term and bring down XAUUSD.
Gold has slightly corrected upwards following its recent decline. Today, the market is quiet due to the U.S. and U.K. bank holidays. Therefore, XAUUSD may decline towards 2,353 over the course of the day. This week's main event is Friday's release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. This data will be crucial for assessing the inflation pace and indicating the future U.S. interest rate trajectory.
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AUDUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
AUDUSD broke the resistance level of 0.66360
👉 Level explanation
AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.66370.
Set your stop loss at 0.66300 below the previous low ($0.70 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66470 ($1.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.43.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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#webinars_schedule #education
📱 You can now watch our educational webinars in the Octa Trading App on your Android smartphone. Install the latest version, tap Webinars in the menu, and enjoy fast and easy access to all upcoming and past videos.
🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts.
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🇬🇧 27/05, 7 p.m. SAST – ENGLISH – Women Trading Camp. Lesson 5 – Learn chart patterns and their use
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🇬🇧 28/05, 6 p.m. WAT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Tunmise Olaoluwa
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🇬🇧 30/05, 7 p.m. SAST – ENGLISH – Women Trading Camp. Lesson 6 – Using technical indicators in trading
XAUUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
XAUUSD formed a bearish Doji pattern
👉Level explanation
XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 2,340.00.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,337.32.
Set your stop loss at 2,354.57 above the previous high ($17.25 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,319.75 ($17.57 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.02.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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AUDUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
AUDUSD formed a bearish Hammer pattern
👉 General outlook
AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 0.66200. Now, the price displays a bearish Hammer pattern.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66122.
Set your stop loss at 0.66344 above the previous high ($2.22 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.65899 ($2.22 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. Durable Goods Orders report will be released in a few minutes and could affect this trade.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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🔽 EURUSD continues to fall on better-than-expected U.S. data
The euro (EUR) lost 0.07% during a rather volatile trading session on Thursday after better-than-expected U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports pushed the U.S. dollar (USD) higher.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Although eurozone PMI figures were higher than expected, business activity in the manufacturing sector remained weak. Meanwhile, the U.S. PMI numbers rose to the highest level in over two years in May. Manufacturers reported a surge in prices for a range of inputs, suggesting that inflation could pick up in the months ahead. The market immediately reacted by lowering the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, strengthening the U.S. dollar.
At the same time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still widely expected to cut its base rate in June, meaning that the interest rate differential between the eurozone and the U.S. will expand, further supporting the greenback. 'The currency action shows the market still responds to strong U.S. economic data in the expected way. I think the U.S. dollar has some more room on the upside. The market is still exaggerating the chances of two rate cuts this year,' said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC.
EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The pair has been declining for five consecutive days. Thus, the bullish trend, which started in mid-April, is now at risk of breaking. Today, more U.S. data will be released. Traders should focus on two reports: the U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the Consumer Sentiment at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures will weaken EURUSD further, potentially pushing the exchange rate below the critically important 1.07950 level. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pause the short-term bearish trend and trigger an upward correction, possibly above 1.08200.
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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD formed a bullish Engulfing pattern
👉 General outlook
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 66,800.00. Now, the price displays a bullish Engulfing pattern.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 67,272.73.
Set your stop loss at 66,128.53 below the previous low ($11.44 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 68,416.93 ($11.44 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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USDJPY, 5-minute timeframe chart
USDJPY retested the resistance level of 157.130
👉Level explanation
USDJPY has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 157.130.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 157.120.
Set your stop loss at 157.285 above the previous high ($1.05 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 156.955 ($1.05 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
📲 More trading opportunities in our app
If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country:
🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH