Octa Analytics

30 May 2024 15:17

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD broke the resistance level of 68,150.00

👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 68,180.00.

Set your stop loss at 67,660.87 below the previous low ($5.2 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 68,960.13 ($7.80 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

30 May 2024 10:38

📉 CAD falls as U.S. dollar rises ahead of U.S. inflation data

The Canadian dollar (CAD) fell by 0.53% as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, as traders remained cautious ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Investors remain risk-averse due to fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay rate cuts until Q4. The prospect of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period benefits the yields on interest-bearing assets. Although 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have slightly decreased towards 4.61%, they remain near a four-week high. S&P 500 futures recorded significant losses during the Tokyo session yesterday, indicating a sharp decline in risk appetite. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has surged above the critical resistance level of 105.00. The USDCAD pair is often considered an indicator of risk sentiment in financial markets: when investors are inclined towards risk, they buy the Canadian dollar (CAD). In periods of increased risk-off sentiment, they prefer safer assets such as the U.S. dollar, which can lead to the selling of the Canadian dollar and an increase in USDCAD.

USDCAD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The key focus today is on U.S. macro statistics. Specifically, the Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may trigger above-normal volatility as it reveals the state of the U.S. labour market. Higher-than-expected unemployment claims numbers may reverse the short-term bullish trend in USDCAD. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may push USDCAD up towards 1.37600. Additionally, investors await Friday's Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The economy is expected to remain stagnant month-on-month after a 0.2% expansion in February and grow by 2.2% annually in Q1. Weak GDP figures could increase the chances that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates in June.

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Octa Analytics

30 May 2024 09:02

XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

XAUUSD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉 General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a bearish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,330.00.

Set your stop loss at 2,322.00 below the previous low ($8.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,338.00 ($8.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 21:05

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 19:26

EURUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

EURUSD formed a bullish Engulfing pattern

👉General outlook

EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bullish Engulfing pattern. The price is ready to rise.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.08105.

Set your stop loss at 1.07981 below the previous low ($1.24 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08289 ($1.84 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.48.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 18:00

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD broke the support level of 67,500.00

👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 67,430.00.

Set your stop loss at 68,975.50 above the previous high ($15.46 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 65,883.65 ($15.46 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 15:17

USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

USDJPY retested the resistance level of 157.280

👉 Level explanation
USDJPY has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 157.280.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 157.270.
Set your stop loss at 157.490 above the previous high ($1.40 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 157.050 ($1.40 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 13:23

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 12:19

AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

AUDUSD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern

👉 Level explanation
AUDUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66393.

Set your stop loss at 0.66534 above the previous high ($1.41 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66252 ($1.41 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 10:29

💸 The market guesses if BOJ will continue its interventions

USDJPY rose by 0.17% yesterday, continuing a steady bullish trend since 3 May. However, the upward momentum gradually weakens and could signal an imminent price correction.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday's U.S. Consumer Confidence data exceeded expectations and pushed USDJPY higher. Recently, the pair reached 160.000, prompting the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to begin interventions. However, actions taken by the government didn't help much, and the yen reached a 34-year low. Experts estimate that the central bank spent $57.21 billion to support the weakening national currency. 'Perhaps Japanese officials sound out verbal warnings again, but without tangible action, it's likely dollar/yen marches towards the levels seen in late April,' commented Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at T.D. Securities.

In his recent speech, BOJ board member Seiji Adachi focused on policy issues, but the main interest of investors was whether the regulator would intervene in the current situation. Seiji Adachi said that the central bank may raise interest rates if a sharp fall in the yen boosts inflation. These comments supported the Japanese yen, and USDJPY slightly retreated from its highs. The Japanese yen has been falling even though the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a downtrend since the beginning of May, with the decrease reaching 1.49%. Many U.S. data releases will come out this week and could significantly impact the market.

Early this morning, the Japan Consumer Confidence data came out below market expectations. Despite this, USDJPY continued its downward correction. Today, the main question is whether the BOJ will conduct further interventions to strengthen the national currency. If inflation in Japan rises, it could lead to an increase in interest rates and positively impact the yen. In this case, the target level for USDJPY will be 152.000.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 09:03

XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

XAUUSD retested the support level of 2,353.00

👉 Level explanation
XAUUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 2,353.00.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,355.00.

Set your stop loss at 2,347.50 below the previous low ($7.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,362.50 ($7.50 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 20:49

#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 29 May.

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 14:59

EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

EURUSD retested the support level of 1.08750

👉 Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.08750.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.08760.

Set your stop loss at 1.08560 below the previous low ($2.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08960 ($2.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. Consumer Confidence report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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28 May 2024 13:16

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 10:58

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Octa Analytics

30 May 2024 10:53

💶The euro falls despite higher-than-expected German inflation

EURUSD fell towards 1.08000 on Wednesday, losing 0.52% during the day. The pair had been growing since mid-April, but now the downward movement has gained momentum.

👉 Possible effects for traders
German inflation data released yesterday had little impact on the market. Although inflation rose towards 2.8%, slightly more than expected, EURUSD didn't react to the data. Still, rising price pressure in Germany may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its interest rate slower than previously predicted. Even though the June rate cut has largely been priced in, ECB policymakers have left the market guessing on how quickly they will cut the base rate after that. 'Hotter and stickier than expected global inflation appears to be taking the air out of asset markets,' said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank.

The Federal Reserve's survey showed that economic activity in the U.S. continued to grow from early April to mid-May. However, firms' outlook is still pessimistic as inflation is rising. U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report will be released on Friday. However, it's unlikely that the data will significantly change the outlook for global monetary policy, given that inflation in the largest economies continues to rise.

Several important reports will come out today, including the eurozone Unemployment Rate, Economic Sentiment, and Industrial Sentiment reports at 9:00 a.m. UTC. Additionally, U.S. Jobless Claims data at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add volatility to the market. The data may shed some light on the eurozone and U.S. interest rate paths. If the eurozone data disappoints investors, EURUSD may decrease towards 1.07400.

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Octa Analytics

30 May 2024 10:20

🔽 Gold falls by 1% as U.S. dollar strengthens

Gold (XAU) dropped by 1% on Wednesday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields strengthened ahead of the U.S. inflation report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The DXY strengthened by 0.5%, making dollar-priced bullion less attractive for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yields hovered near the multi-week highs reached in the previous session. XAUUSD has fallen by over 100 since reaching a record high of 2,450 on 20 May. The decrease happened due to hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, as the latest meeting minutes indicated that the path to the 2% inflation target will be longer than expected. Although bullion is considered an inflation hedge, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in about a 59% chance of a rate cut by the Fed by November.

On Wednesday, Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated that the path to achieving 2% inflation is not guaranteed and that the extent of price pressures remains significant. His comments followed recent hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who emphasised that the U.S. central bank should delay rate cuts until there is substantial improvement in inflation. He also indicated that the regulator excluded the possibility of more rate hikes if inflation doesn't decrease further.

XAUUSD continued to fall during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Investors await the second estimate of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 25 May at 12:30 p.m. UTC today. These reports are expected to provide insights into the central bank's monetary policy outlook. If the labour market and economic data come out strong, gold will continue its decline. Otherwise, XAUUSD may correct upwards to the 2,350 level.

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Octa Analytics

30 May 2024 08:09

AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

AUDUSD retested the support level of 0.65930

👉 Level explanation
AUDUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 0.65930.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.65960.

Set your stop loss at 0.65760 below the previous low ($2.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66160 ($2.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 20:49

#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 30 May.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 18:42

USDJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart

USDJPY formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉General outlook
USDJPY has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 157.693.

Set your stop loss at 157.469 below the previous low ($1.42 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 157.917 ($1.42 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 15:49

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 14:02

GBPJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart

GBPJPY retested the support level of 200.400

👉 Level explanation
GBPJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 200.400.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 200.543.
Set your stop loss at 200.261 below the previous low ($1.80 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 200.825 ($1.80 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 12:38

GBPUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

GBPUSD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern

👉 Level explanation
GBPUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern. The price is ready to drop.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.27478.

Set your stop loss at 1.27663 above the previous high ($1.85 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27267 ($2.11 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.14.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 10:43

📈 Gold rose despite strong U.S. Consumer Confidence data

XAUUSD rose by 0.43% on Tuesday despite higher-than-expected U.S. CB Consumer Confidence figures.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The Conference Board (СВ) reported on Tuesday that consumer confidence figures rose from 97.0 in April towards 102.0 in May, surpassing the estimate of 95.9. This release strengthened the U.S. dollar but didn't affect XAUUSD, as the pair closed at 2,360 yesterday. On Tuesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed should delay cutting rates until inflation significantly slows. He also mentioned that the central bank may consider hiking interest rates as inflation remains sticky. Investors now focus on Friday's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which may affect the Fed's outlook on monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in approximately a 57% chance of a rate cut by November.

Meanwhile, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to bolster the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. Recent reports indicated that Israel's military denied striking a tent camp west of Rafah. However, Gaza health authorities reported casualties among civilians.

XAUUSD moved sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, volatility is likely to be relatively low as the economic calendar is uneventful. However, speeches from Fed officials at 5:40 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. UTC may affect the market. Traders will be watching for any clues on the future path of U.S. interest rates that may determine the next big move in XAUUSD.

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Octa Analytics

29 May 2024 10:15

🔽 Strong U.S. data put downward pressure on the euro

On Tuesday, the euro (EUR) rose by 0.22% following European Central Bank (ECB) official Isabel Schnabel's hawkish speech. However, the pair lost its gains after the release of a better-than-expected U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Consumer confidence rose towards 102.0 in May from 97.0 in April, exceeding the forecast of 95.9. EURUSD now faces challenges as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens on increasing risk aversion, possibly triggered by hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari. Kashkari indicated that the regulator may consider rate increases and expressed uncertainty about the disinflationary process. In December 2023, markets had anticipated over six rate cuts of at least 25 basis points (bps) each, with the first decrease in March. Today, investors are pricing in around a 50% chance of one 25 bps cut in September, while the second decrease is under question.

The ECB is widely expected to deliver an interest rate cut at the meeting on 6 June, and the market speculates on the possibility of future policy easing. Policymakers remain data-dependent and cautious about aggressive rate cuts to avoid slowing disinflation. Investors now expect one more rate cut after the June meeting, down from the three anticipated decreases in 2024 last week. On Monday, ECB officials emphasised flexibility in the timing and pace of cuts. This week, today's German preliminary May inflation report and eurozone preliminary inflation data on Friday will affect the EURUSD exchange rate.

EURUSD continued declining as U.S. Treasuries increased above 4.5% during Tokyo trading hours. Today, traders should focus on the German inflation data. Each German state will release its own Consumer Price Index (CPI) report starting at 8:00 a.m. UTC, and the final report will come out at 12:00 p.m. UTC. If inflation figures are higher than expected, investors will have to readjust their dovish stance on eurozone monetary policy, and EURUSD will rally. Conversely, lower-than-expected CPI will likely extend the downward correction and push the pair down towards 1.08300.

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 21:04

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 16:54

GBPJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart

GBPJPY broke the resistance level of 200.500

👉Level explanation
GBPJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 200.580.

Set your stop loss at 200.285 below the previous low ($1.88 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 200.875 ($1.88 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 14:18

USDCAD, 15-minute timeframe chart

USDCAD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern

👉 Level explanation
USDCAD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.36184.

Set your stop loss at 1.36269 above the previous high ($0.62 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.36099 ($0.62 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. Consumer Confidence report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 11:18

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD rebounded from the support level of 67,500.00

👉 Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day. The pair moved down to the support level of 67,500.00.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 68,100.00.

Set your stop loss at 67,280.00 below the previous low ($8.20 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 68,920.00 ($8.20 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

28 May 2024 10:36

GBPUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

GBPUSD broke the support level of 1.27685

👉 Level explanation
GBPUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.27670.

Set your stop loss at 1.27835 above the previous high ($1.65 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27505 ($1.65 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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