📈 The euro rises despite a rate cut by the ECB

The euro (EUR) rose by 0.18% even though the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the interest rate yesterday, as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell following higher-than-expected U.S. Jobless Claims numbers.

👉 Possible effects for traders
As expected, the ECB reduced its base rate by 25 basis points (bps) yesterday. The main refinancing operations rate dropped to 4.25%, while the deposit facility rate reduced to 3.75%. The ECB also released its latest inflation projections, indicating that the eurozone's annual core inflation is expected to be 2.8% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 2% in 2026. During the press conference, ECB president Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank needs more data to confirm confident disinflation and warned that price trends could be volatile in the coming months. For example, eurozone service inflation rose to 4.1% in May, the highest level in seven months. Additionally, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3% after contracting during the last two quarters of 2023.

Data released on Thursday indicated that initial jobless claims increased more than anticipated last week, and labour costs in Q1 were revised downwards. Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a client note: 'We expect the overall message from the nonfarm payroll report to be one of strength, albeit ebbing.' He noted, 'We would not characterise the U.S. labour market as weak or strong; rather, "white hot" would be more accurate.' Capurso concluded, 'Consequently, market pricing for the FOMC's first rate cut in September may be pushed out, supporting a modest increase in the USD.'

EURUSD continued to rise during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Market participants are now focusing on the upcoming monthly U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report due at 12:30 p.m. UTC to assess the state of the labour market and get more details on a possible U.S. interest rate path. Lower-than-expected figures will impact EURUSD positively, potentially pushing the exchange rate towards 1.09100. However, the pair may correct downwards if the NFP figures exceed the forecast.

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USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

USDJPY retested the support level of 155.500

👉Level explanation
USDJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 155.500.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 155.610.

Set your stop loss at 155.360 below the previous low ($1.61 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 155.860 ($1.61 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

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These events will affect the market on 7 June.

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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 71,350.00

👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 71,350.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 71,107.70.

Set your stop loss at 71,777.62 above the previous high ($6.70 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 70,438.08 ($6.70 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Bookmark this to keep up with the latest financial events!

The stock market is in constant movement, and sometimes, it can be more rapid than we are used to. The frequency of such changes is what we know as volatility, which is crucial for every trader's strategy.

To help you plan your trading according to ‌market volatility, we have prepared an economic calendar for this June to keep as a memo.

Save this post and stay updated to make sure that your trading experience goes as smoothly as possible.

Do you take volatility into consideration before trading? Share your experience in the comments.

#Trading #TradingCalendar #MarketUpdate #Volatility

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📉 The euro declines ahead of today's ECB meeting

The euro (EUR) fell slightly on Wednesday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose following higher-than-expected U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar (USD) decreased on Wednesday after U.S. economic data revealed that the services sector in the world's largest economy rebounded in May after contracting the previous month. Stronger-than-expected PMI figures underscored uncertainty about the anticipated start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing cycle this year. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index increased towards 53.8 in May from 49.4 in April. These figures were the highest since August, surpassing estimates of 50.8. Meanwhile, the eurozone's final PMI readings for May rose amid emerging recovery hopes. However, April's Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped more than expected, keeping European bond yields low.

Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York, believes the U.S. economy is slowing down despite the strong ISM services data, although 'it's not clear that you should outright sell the U.S. dollar.' He noted that the market is already expecting about two rate cuts by the Fed this year, leaving little room for additional easing to be priced in by investors. 'In that context, we are still not convinced that the U.S. dollar has a lot of downside,' Serebriakov said. Traders are now pricing in a 69% chance of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% last week.

During the Asian trading window, EURUSD rose but then declined in the early hours of the European session. Investors are now turning their attention to today's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due at 12:15 p.m. UTC. The ECB is widely expected to lower its deposit rate from a record high of 4%. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, the first among G7 countries, and now the market anticipates the ECB to follow the same path. Investors firmly believe in a rate reduction, so watching President Christine Lagarde's speech will be more important as it can clarify the further trajectory of interest rates in the eurozone. If Lagarde's speech is dovish, EURUSD's bullish trend could break. However, it's more likely that the president will adopt a more hawkish stance, as recent economic data has underscored that inflation in the eurozone remains sticky. This could push EURUSD above 1.09100.

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EURUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

EURUSD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern

👉Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.08850.
Set your stop loss at 1.09050 above the previous high ($2.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08650 ($2.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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XAUUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

XAUUSD formed a bullish Engulfing pattern

👉 General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Engulging pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,342.32.

Set your stop loss at 2,331.50 below the previous low ($10.82 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,353.14 ($10.82 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝 Fundamental factors
The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index report will be released in a few minutes and could affect this trade.

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BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 71,095.00

👉 Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 71,095.00.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 70,895.06.

Set your stop loss at 71,480.00 above the previous high ($8.85 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 70,347.00 ($8.85 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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Another Wednesday, another episode of You Too Can!

Our trading journey with Ambrose Ebuka and Tolulope Adebisi is almost over, but we still have time to reach the goal of earning $1,000. This time, they will teach us more about live trading, so watch closely.

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Subscribe to the Octa channel for future updates and more educational content. Check out the link for more information.

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💸 The euro rebounded on weaker U.S. jobs data

The euro (EUR) declined on Tuesday but rebounded from the 1.08600 level due to lower-than-expected U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The number of job openings decreased by 296,000 to 8.059 million in April 2024, marking the lowest level since February 2021 and falling below the market forecast of 8.34 million. The recent softer U.S. macroeconomic data indicate signs of a cooling economy and reinforce expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. These expectations maintain low U.S. Treasury bond yields and weaken the U.S. dollar (USD), providing some support to EURUSD. However, the gains appear limited as traders might prefer to remain cautious ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting.

As policymakers have widely signalled in recent weeks, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on 6 June. This is expected to be the first rate cut since March 2016 and will coincide with the release of the latest economic projections. Additionally, traders will examine comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for insights into the interest rate path following the rise in eurozone inflation in May. These factors will play a crucial role in affecting the EURUSD trend.

EURUSD declined slightly during the early European trading session. Today, traders should focus on two key U.S. reports: the ADP Employment Change at 12:15 p.m. UTC and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 2:00 p.m. UTC. These releases may trigger some volatility in USD pairs. If the figures are better than expected, it will almost certainly push EURUSD lower, potentially below 1.08600. Conversely, if the figures disappoint, the bullish trend in EURUSD will likely extend, and the pair may rise towards 1.09100.

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GBPUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

GBPUSD formed the Triangle pattern

👉Level explanation
GBPUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day. Now, the price displays a bearish Triangle pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.27720.
Set your stop loss at 1.27940 below the previous low ($2.20 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27500 ($2.20 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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These events will affect the market on 5 June.

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BTCUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

BTCUSD formed the Triangle pattern

👉 Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Triangle pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 69,000.00.

Set your stop loss at 67,500.00 below the previous low ($15.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 70,500.00 ($15.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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USDCAD, 15-minute timeframe chart

USDCAD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern

👉 General outlook
USDCAD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.36804.

Set your stop loss at 1.37000 above the previous high ($1.43 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.36608 ($1.43 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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💸 JPY strengthens on U.S. dollar weakness

The Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened by 0.33% on Thursday, while the U.S. dollar weakened following a worse-than-expected U.S. Jobless Claims report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened as lower-than-expected U.S. employment data fueled hopes for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. A Reuters poll conducted from 31 May to 5 June indicated that nearly two-thirds of economists now predict a rate cut in September. Additionally, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in September has risen to nearly 70%, up from 51% a week earlier.

While addressing parliament on Thursday, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that inflation expectations are gradually rising but have yet to reach 2%, according to Reuters. Ueda mentioned: 'We are still scrutinising market developments since the March decision. As we proceed in exiting our massive monetary stimulus, it's appropriate to reduce bond purchases.' Additionally, BOJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura noted that, based on current data, it's appropriate to maintain the current policy for some time.

USDJPY rose slightly in the Asian trading session, possibly influenced by the Ministry of Finance's report about reduced foreign reserves for May. Foreign exchange reserves dropped significantly from $1,279 billion towards $1,231 billion in May, marking the lowest level since February 2023. Reserves decreased as the government conducted foreign exchange intervention operations to support the national currency. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The report usually causes increased volatility in the Forex market. If the report is strong—average hourly earnings rise, unemployment drops, or the number of jobs created is higher than expected—USDJPY will continue to rise, possibly towards 156.600. However, any indications that the U.S. labour market is weakening may invigorate USDJPY bears, and the pair may drop towards 155.000.

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GBPJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

GBPJPY broke the support level of 199.270

Level explanation
GBPJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 199.211.

Set your stop loss at 199.652 above the previous high ($2.83 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 198.770 ($2.83 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Mark your calendars for another important market event!

Thursday, 6 June, 12:15 p.m. UTC: ECB Interest Rate Decision (ECB Press Conference).

If the ECB decides to keep rates at the current level, it would be a significant surprise for the market and could substantially boost EUR. However, the main scenario is that the regulator will cut rates by 25 bps. It's important to monitor the conference for any clues on the future interest rate path.

Follow the link to apply this information to your trading now!

#Trading #Forex #WeeklyTradingCalendar #MarketUpdates #Investing

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📈 Gold broke out of the range, gaining 1.22%

After the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI report was released yesterday, gold broke out of the 2,320.00–2,360.00 range and rose by 1.22%.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday, the U.S. ADP Employment Change report showed that the number of people employed in the private sector in May increased less than expected. Moreover, the data for the previous months were also revised downwards. Thus, investors have started to expect two interest rate cuts this year. They are pricing around a 69% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, the expectations may change significantly after the release of the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, which is due on Friday. The employment data will help assess the state of the U.S. labour market and provide information about the possible timing of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

The fundamental prospects for gold look positive due to the U.S. dollar's possible weakening on expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed. The market now awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data, and traders will likely remain cautious until the release on Friday. The U.S. Jobless Claims report will be released today, but it may not have a strong effect as investors will likely refrain from placing large orders ahead of the NFP report.

XAUUSD sharply rose by 0.81% during the Asian trading session but experienced a decline in the early European trading hours. Today's U.S. Jobless Claims report may trigger some volatility and provide insights into the U.S. labour market ahead of the key nonfarm payroll (NFP) report tomorrow. This report could significantly affect the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and the chances of rate reductions. Recent U.S. data has shown weakness in the labour market, raising the chances of an imminent rate cut. However, if the NFP data indicates resilient labour conditions, the U.S. dollar may strengthen and cause a downward correction in XAUUSD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected numbers may push the pair even higher.

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💸 Bitcoin rises despite stronger U.S. ISM services data

Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.81% on Wednesday despite the stronger-than-expected U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
BTCUSD gained nearly 5% over the last three days, breaking a two-week downtrend. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell towards 104 on Wednesday, hovering near two-month lows. Signs of weakness in the U.S. labour market invigorated hopes for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, with the first one expected in September. The ADP Employment Change report revealed that private businesses added fewer jobs than anticipated, indicating a softening labour market. Thus, BTC rose as the U.S. dollar weakened. Meanwhile, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data showed that U.S. services sector activity grew the fastest in nine months in May, exceeding market expectations.

Open interest (OI) surged by over $2 billion in just three days. Open interest represents the total number of unsettled derivative contracts, such as options or futures. A large open interest can amplify price swings, especially when traders with multiple positions suddenly adjust their strategies. It also influences overall trader sentiment, as OI serves as a signal for deciding whether to hold or sell crypto assets. BitLab Academy director Kelly Kellam explained that the sudden surge in Bitcoin's OI and the continuation of positive funding rates suggest a high likelihood of 'whipsaw' action on Bitcoin's price, meaning that a sudden price spike opposite to the current trend may occur.

BTCUSD moved sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The key event for Bitcoin traders is tomorrow's U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report at 12:30 p.m. This report could significantly impact the future U.S. monetary policy trajectory and the chances of a rate cut this autumn. Recent U.S. data has shown weakness in the labour market, increasing the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. However, if NFP data shows resilient labour conditions, the U.S. dollar may strengthen, leading to a downward correction in BTCUSD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected numbers may extend the bullish trend in the pair.

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These events will affect the market on 6 June.

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EURUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

EURUSD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉 General outlook
EURUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.08838.

Set your stop loss at 1.08516 below the previous low ($3.22 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.09160 ($3.22 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index report will be released in a few minutes and could affect this trade.

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🕯 Gold moves sideways, awaiting the NFP report

XAUUSD has been moving sideways since 24 May within the 2,320.00– 2,360.00 range. The pair fell by 1.01% yesterday.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Gold is awaiting any details on the U.S. interest rate trajectory. It declined slowly on Tuesday as traders were cautious about the Friday release of the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report. The data may provide more clarity on the timing of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), particularly following recent economic data which indicated that the Fed has room to lower the base rate. The U.S. dollar (USD) has now stabilised in anticipation of Friday's report. Despite yesterday's data on JOLT Job Openings being worse than expected, it didn't significantly impact XAUUSD.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 0.1% yesterday. According to currency strategists surveyed by Reuters, the USD is expected to weaken slightly over the next 12 months, as it is considered overvalued. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reports that net purchases of gold by global central banks rose to 33 metric tonnes in April, up from a revised net buying of 3 tonnes in March. This indicates that the high demand for gold persists despite its high prices.

Investors are awaiting this Friday's U.S. NFP report, which will help assess the state of the U.S. economy and provide more clarity on potential changes in interest rates. Today, the release of the ADP Employment Change report at 12:15 p.m. UTC and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data at 2:00 p.m. UTC could influence XAUUSD. These reports might trigger a breakout from the current trading XAUUSD range of 2,320.00–2,360.00.

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🇨🇦 Market awaits Bank of Canada's interest rate decision

USDCAD gained 0.36% on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) corrected upwards following a sharp decline towards 104.00.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The latest Bank of Canada (BOC) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on Friday showed that economic growth remained flat after a strong rise of 0.5% in January. The real gross domestic product grew by 0.4% in Q1, equivalent to an annualised rate of 1.7%. This figure fell short of the forecasted 2.3% rise and the Bank of Canada's April projection of 2.8%. The annualised growth rate for the previous quarter was revised down to 0.1% from 1%. Additionally, the regulator's core inflation measures have shown improvement. The year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased from 3.2% to 2.9% in April, while the annual rate of the CPI median also decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%.

Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, noted that Canada's economy has expanded by a meagre 0.5% in the past year. 'While the downside surprise in Q1 was driven by a big cut in business inventories, the reality is that underlying growth remains well short of potential, and slack is building for the overall economy,' he wrote in a report following the GDP release. 'For the Bank of Canada, we believe the main message is that the output gap is widening, as reinforced by a less-tight job market, modestly increasing the chances of a rate cut next week (5 June),' he added.

USDCAD declined slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's main event is the BOC interest rate decision, due at 1:45 p.m. UTC. The Bank of Canada is anticipated to reduce its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in response to high mortgage rates and borrowing costs amid easing inflation and slower economic growth. However, some economists suggest the bank might delay the rate cut until July. If the regulator delivers the rate cut, the Canadian dollar will weaken, while USDCAD will rise. Conversely, if the rate remains unchanged, it will surprise market participants and could trigger a sharp decline in USDCAD, possibly falling below 1.36000.

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3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

EURUSD retested the resistance level of 1.08800

👉Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.08800.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.08760.
Set your stop loss at 1.08920 above the previous high ($1.60 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08600 ($1.60 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

XAUUSD formed a bearish Doji pattern

👉 Level explanation
XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 2,334.00. Now, the price displays a bearish Doji pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,332.80.

Set your stop loss at 2,339.61 above the previous high ($6.81 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,325.99 ($6.81 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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USDJPY, 1-hour timeframe chart

USDJPY retested the support level of 155.300

👉 Level explanation
USDJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 155.300.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 155.350.
Set your stop loss at 154.950 below the previous low ($2.58 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 155.750 ($2.58 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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