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📌Euro under pressure as French elections cloud outlook
The euro gained 0.32% on Monday but continued to trade near a one-month low amid political jitters in Europe, while investors awaited the upcoming U.S. economic data releases that could potentially shed light on future changes in Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates.
👉 Possible effects for traders
French parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place in a couple of weeks, have raised fears of a Eurozone budget crisis. Despite a sharp sell-off in French debt instruments, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have not yet stipulated any specific plans to purchase French bonds. Meanwhile, U.S. interest rate cuts are on the horizon. Minneapolis Fed chief, Neel Kashkari, predicted on Sunday that the U.S. central bank would cut interest rates at least once this year. The market, however, is betting that two rate cuts are possible both in the U.S. and in the Eurozone. As the level of interest rates in the U.S. is currently higher, the fundamental pressure on EURUSD remains bearish. In addition, traders are likely to continue to sell the rallies in the euro until political uncertainty dissipates once a new French government is formed.
EURUSD was falling slightly during the Asian and early European trading session. Today's session could see sharp swings in the EURUSD exchange rate as a string of economic reports will stoke volatility. The focus is on the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index due at 9:00 a.m. UTC and the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Arguably, the U.S. data is more important. It will give hints about U.S. consumption and economic strength. In case the report comes out weaker-than-expected, EURUSD may temporarily rise above 1.07600. Alternatively, better-than-expected results may pull the euro down—possibly below the critical 1.07000 mark.
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We decided not to make you wait for so long! Ambrose holds a live Instagram stream on 19 June at 6 p.m., BAT.
Get answers to your burning questions about trading and gain valuable insights directly from Ambrose Ebuka.
Here’s your preparation plan:
🔹 book your calendar
🔹 compile your questions
🔹 be ready to learn.
See you on the stream!
#forexlive #tradinglive #forex101 #tradingmentor #tradingcommunity
USDCAD, 1-hour timeframe chart
USDCAD tested the resistance level of 1.37400
👉General outlook
USDCAD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.37400.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.37390.
Set your stop loss at 1.37640 above the previous high ($1.82 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.37140 ($1.82 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart
USDJPY retested the support level of 157.740
👉General outlook
USDJPY has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. The pair moved down to the support level of 157.740.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 157.750.
Set your stop loss at 157.545 below the previous low ($1.30 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 157.955 ($1.30 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
XAUUSD retested the support level of 2,318.00
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 2,318.00.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,319.00.
Set your stop loss at 2,312.75 below the previous low ($6.25 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,325.25 ($6.25 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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📈Euro rebounded after a weak US Consumer Sentiment report
The euro (EUR) fell on Friday but rebounded slightly following a weaker-than-expected US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
👉 Possible effects for traders
French markets experienced a severe sell-off last week in anticipation of a snap election that could potentially grant a majority to the far right, posing risks both to the country's fiscal stability and the eurozone. European Central Bank policymakers informed Reuters that they had no plans to initiate emergency purchases of French bonds to stabilise the market after yield spreads over German bonds widened significantly due to a flight to safety. Analysts at JPMorgan cautioned, 'A French challenge to the region's fiscal arrangements would be problematic and have far-reaching implications.' They added, 'At this stage, the situation in the run-up to the first round of voting is still very fluid.'
The dollar index (DXY) remained above 105.5 on Friday, hovering near its highest levels since early May, following the Federal Reserve's updated projections last week, which suggested only one interest rate cut this year, potentially as late as December. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari echoed this sentiment on Sunday, calling it a 'reasonable prediction' to anticipate a single rate cut this year. These forecasts were made despite softer-than-expected US inflation figures for May.
EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's trading session is likely to be quiet as the economic calendar features no major news releases. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech today at 9:00 a.m. UTC could affect the euro. The key levels to watch are 1.06700 and 1.07200.
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#weekly_outlook
🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions
Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 17 – 21 June from Kar Yong Ang. Stay informed and trade wisely.
We wish you a successful trading week!
BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 66,400.00
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 66,400.00.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 66,184.36.
Set your stop loss at 67,189.76 above the previous high ($10.05 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 65,178.96 ($10.05 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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#webinars_schedule #education
⚡️ Webinars are now one touch away from you. Update the Octa Trading App on your Android smartphone and access all live streams and past videos within the Webinars section in the menu.
🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts.
👋 Join and learn more about trading:
🇬🇧 18/06, 9 p.m. MYT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Kar Yong Ang
🇮🇩 19/06, 7 p.m. WIB – INDONESIAN – Live trading session with Setyo Wibowo
🇬🇧 20/06, 6 p.m. WAT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Ambrose Ebuka
🇲🇾 20/06, 9 p.m. MYT – MALAY – Live trading session with Cikgu Danie
BTCUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
BTCUSD broke the support level of 66,000.00
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 65,282.22.
Set your stop loss at 67,429.22 above the previous high ($21.47 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 63,135.22 ($21.47 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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USDCAD, 30-minute timeframe chart
USDCAD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern
👉 General outlook
USDCAD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.37506.
Set your stop loss at 1.37845 above the previous high ($2.47 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.37168 ($2.47 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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Let's see how well you remember them!
Can you answer the following questions? 👇
AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
AUDUSD formed a bearish Hammer pattern
👉 General outlook
AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 0.66225. Now, the price displays a bearish Hammer pattern
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66156.
Set your stop loss at 0.66390 above the previous high ($2.34 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.65922 ($2.34 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. Consumer Sentiment report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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EURUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
EURUSD retested the resistance level of 1.07600
👉Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.07600.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.07420.
Set your stop loss at 1.07677 above the previous high ($2.57 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.07163 ($2.57 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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📉Pound declines as traders await the BOE interest rate decision and key economic reports
The pound (GBP) fell by 0.27% on Monday as traders awaited the upcoming macroeconomic reports.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to authorise its first interest rate cut in August, later than previously anticipated, due to higher-than-expected inflation, according to Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) reports. Initially, UBS predicted a rate cut in June, driven by changes in forward guidance and an expected drop in inflation. However, disappointing labour market and inflation data have delayed this. U.K. April CPI inflation fell by only 0.9 percentage points to 2.3% year-on-year, with services inflation at 5.9% year-on-year, higher than the BoE’s projection of 5.5% year-on-year. Political developments, including Prime Minister Sunak’s call for general elections on July 4, have further reduced the likelihood of a June cut.
UBS now expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to delay the cut until August, post-election. They noted the BoE’s decision to cancel speeches and public statements until after the election indicates a cautious approach. The upcoming June meeting, lacking new projections or a press conference, is expected to maintain the current forward guidance and vote split (7 vs 2), signalling no major assessment changes.
GBPUSD declined during the Asian trading session but rebounded during the morning European trading session. Today's main event is the U.S. Retail Sales report due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Recent inflation reports point to a decrease. If retail sales are lower than expected, the chances of a rate cut will increase, pushing the pound higher. Conversely, if retail sales exceed expectations, GBPUSD may continue to fall towards 1.26000. Later this week, investors will focus on two significant events: the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the BOE Interest Rate Decision. These events may determine the mid-term future trend for GBPUSD.
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📊XAUUSD trades sideways awaiting for U.S. Retail Sales data
On Monday, the exchange rate for XAUUSD fluctuated between 2,310 and 2,328. Market participants were awaiting a series of economic reports and statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials during the week to determine the timing of their interest rate reduction. Gold finished Tuesday 0.56% lower compared to the previous trading day.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Patrick Harper, the President of the Philadelphia Fed, stated on Monday that they could potentially reduce their benchmark interest rate once this year, contingent upon economic forecasts. However, he left the possibility open for a change in his opinion based on future data. Traders are currently monitoring upcoming comments from other Federal Reserve officials, such as the President of the New York Fed John Williams, and the President of the Richmond Fed Tom Barkin, for further guidance. According to the FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the U.S. rate cut in September 2024 is 61.5%.
Meanwhile, the market is waiting for the U.S. Retail Sales report, which will be released today. This report is expected to provide a signal for the future direction of the market. The fact that the price of gold has fluctuated over the past few days without any major changes suggests that the market is awaiting some event that will break the current stalemate, according to Matt Simpson, a senior analyst with City Index. Wang Tao, a Reuters analyst, supposes that gold may experience a small upward correction. ‘Spot gold is biased to retest resistance at $2,340 per ounce, as a bounce from the June 10 low of $2,286.69 looks incomplete,’ said Tao.
XAUUSD has been trading sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions on Tuesday within the 2,320–2,325 range, awaiting the release of the U.S. Retail Sales data at 12:30 p.m. UTC today. A lower-than-expected reading should be seen as positive for XAUUSD, while a higher-than-expected reading should be seen as bearish for gold.
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GBPUSD, 5-minute timeframe chart
GBPUSD retested the support level of 1.26900
👉General outlook
GBPUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.26900.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.26953.
Set your stop loss at 1.26848 below the previous low ($1.05 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27080 ($1.27 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.21.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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GBPUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
GBPUSD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern
👉General outlook
GBPUSD has been trading in a bearish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.26895
Set your stop loss at 1.26561 below the previous low ($3.34 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27230 ($3.34 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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📈AUD traders brace for high volatility ahead of the RBA Rate Decision
The Australian dollar (AUD) lost 0.33% on Friday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) moved higher despite weaker-than-expected Consumer Sentiment data.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The fundamental pressure on AUDUSD remains bullish as the market expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to be more dovish for the rest of the year compared to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to interest rate swaps market data, investors are pricing in almost 50 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, whereas the RBA is expected to deliver less than 20 bps worth of cuts over the same period. Although the Australian economy underperformed in Q1, the latest labour market and real estate market data came out stronger than expected, lowering the probability of RBA rate cuts even further. Still, AUDUSD has failed to break above the critical 0.67000 level for more than a month now. Overall, however, the general bullish trend remains intact, and AUDUSD may rebound once again—especially if the US data continues to disappoint.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision is due tomorrow at 4:30 a.m. UTC. Given that inflation remains above the central bank's 2%–3% target, while the unemployment rate is just around 4%, the probability of an early rate cut is rather low. The market expects the RBA to hold interest rates at 4.35% and anticipates the first rate cut no earlier than in December. Traders should watch for clues on future changes in monetary policy in the RBA's Rate Statement. If it sounds more hawkish than previously, AUDUSD may start rising towards 0.67000 again. Alternatively, a dovish statement may push the pair below 0.65700.
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📈XAUUSD rose on expectations of interest rate cuts
On Friday, the XAUUSD pair showed strong growth, rising by 1.30%. The price increased to the local resistance level of $2,335.00, testing it several times throughout the day. The expected release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report did not provide clarity or specifics on the dollar, and the market largely ignored this news.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Many investors were anticipating new economic data from the US, especially after last week's reports indicated that inflation is beginning to slow and stabilise. These reports bolstered investors' hopes for interest rate cuts this year. The reports coming out this week, particularly the US Retail Sales data on Tuesday, weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday, and flash PMIs on Friday, are expected to provide more clarity. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak this week.
Assessing the prospects for gold, the long-term fundamentals are favourable, but much depends on the US data. Given the potential for future rate cuts, gold has excellent potential and growth prospects. According to Reuters, 'data released last week showed some weakening in price pressures in the US, suggesting that the labour market was losing momentum, keeping hopes alive for a September rate cut.’ According to FedWatch, traders expect a 68% probability of a rate cut compared to the 63% forecasted last Thursday before the producer prices data was published. However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that it's a 'reasonable prediction' that the US central bank will cut interest rates once this year, likely waiting until December to do it.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,322.24 per ounce as of 3:20 a.m. UTC, after rising more than 1% on Friday. US gold futures fell 0.5% to $2,337.10."
Today, no significant price jumps are expected in the market. The XAUUSD pair is trading within the range of $2,320.00 to $2,335.00 and has the potential to break out of this range today. If the bearish trend continues, the price may correct to the support level of $2,300.00 and below. Conversely, if the trend reverses, growth towards the upper boundary of $2,335.00 is anticipated.
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AUDUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
AUDUSD retested the support level of 0.65920
👉Level explanation
AUDUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 0.65920.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.66000.
Set your stop loss at 0.65750 below the previous low ($2.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66250 ($2.50 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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Do you want to use leverage but don’t know how it works? We’ve got you covered!
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3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.
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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
EURUSD retested the support level of 1.06720
👉 General outlook
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.06720.
👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.06950.
Set your stop loss at 1.06670 below the previous low ($2.80 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.07230 ($2.80 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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We know that #u2can trade as a pro, so let's continue to learn together!
Stay tuned for more—we have prepared something special for you!
Do not forget to watch the latest episode!
GBPJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart
GBPJPY broke the support level of 199.330
👉Level explanation
GBPJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 199.080.
Set your stop loss at 199.505 above the previous high ($3.21 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 198.575 ($3.21 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
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📉 Bitcoin falls amid Fed speculations and US economic data
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped by 2.26% as the US dollar index (DXY) rose despite lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers and higher-than-expected US Initial Jobless Claims figures.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The dollar index steadied above 105.2 on Thursday, poised for a second straight week of gains amid fears that the Federal Reserve could maintain higher interest rates longer. While the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged this week, it signalled only one rate cut this year, down from three cuts in March, despite softer-than-expected consumer inflation and a surprise decline in producer prices. Additionally, weekly initial unemployment claims rose to a ten-month high.
Bitcoin's price has responded positively to the Federal Reserve's recent change in tone. Earlier this week, the inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 3.3% year over year. The research team at Bitfinex is optimistic about BTC's long-term growth. Bitfinex analysts told BeInCrypto, ‘Since the Fed decided to maintain current rates, Bitcoin might experience short-term volatility as the market adjusts to the news. However, the overall trend could remain positive, especially if the broader economic outlook continues to improve.’
BTCUSD rose slightly during the early European trading session. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, due at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A lower-than-expected outcome from this report could boost BTCUSD, potentially pushing its value above the 68,000 level. On the other hand, if the data surpasses expectations, we could see a downward correction in the BTCUSD pair.
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