Octa Analytics

14 Jun 2024 13:45

📉 XAUUSD continued its downward correction

At the close of yesterday's trading session, the XAUUSD pair lost 0.91%, falling to the support level of $2,300.00. After a prolonged rise since the beginning of the week, a strong correction has set in, which may subsequently continue the overall bearish trend.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Following the Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday to keep the interest rate at 5.5%, the price of gold has been steadily declining. The negative reports on the dollar on the Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims released yesterday did not manage to strengthen the XAUUSD pair for an extended period. However, a slight easing followed these data releases. Investors regained optimism regarding two rate cuts this year. Despite the conflicting conclusions from the Fed meeting, the Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims reports managed to create some volatility in the gold market. The Producer Price Index data showed a decline, which could be an additional signal for reducing inflation after a sharp rise in the first quarter.

For the XAUUSD pair, weak US inflation would be preferable, as gold's appeal in a recessionary environment would increase with the expectation of rate cuts this year. The US Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate and postponed the start of cuts until December. However, declining inflation could bring this possibility closer to September. The Jobless Claims data also showed that the labour market is losing momentum, supporting hopes for a rate cut in September. Traders currently see a 65% probability of a cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Today, weak market activity is expected as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is released, which generally does not heavily influence the market. Gold may continue to test the support level of $2,300.00, after which relative clarity will ensue. Either there will be a retest and rise to $2,325.00 or a break and decline to $2,280.00.

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Octa Analytics

14 Jun 2024 10:16

USDCAD, 15-minute timeframe chart

USDCAD broke the resistance level of 1.37480

👉 Level explanation

USDCAD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉 Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.37500.
Set your stop loss at 1.37340 below the previous low ($1.17 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.37660 ($1.17 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 21:04

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 20:23

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 17:16

GBPJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart

GBPJPY broke the support level of 200.370

👉Level explanation
GBPJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 200.268.

Set your stop loss at 200.734 above the previous high ($2.98 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 199.800 ($2.98 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 14:35

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 10:43

🇨🇦 CAD traders focus on U.S. PPI and Jobless Claims reports

The Canadian dollar (CAD) recovered its losses following the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data but weakened again after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) economic projections.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The CPI figures were below the forecast but still not enough to meet the Federal Reserve's (Fed) goals. Yesterday, the FOMC kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged in the 5.25–5.50% range for the seventh consecutive time, aligning with market expectations. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the restrictive monetary policy impacts inflation as the Fed had hoped. Still, the central bank will wait to see more substantial progress on inflation. According to their latest economic projections, policymakers expect only one rate cut this year, down from three anticipated in March.

Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem stated late Wednesday that there is a limit to how much the Canadian central bank can diverge on rates from the Fed, but they are not close to that limit. Last week, the BOC lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) towards 4.75%. Markets have priced in nearly 150 bps of rate cuts in the next few years. The divergence in interest rates between Canada and the U.S. might boost the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar and support USDCAD in the near term.

USDCAD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the key report is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) at 12:30 p.m. UTC, but the U.S. Jobless Claims data may also affect the pair. These reports will help determine the future U.S. interest rate path. If the PPI numbers are stronger than expected, USDCAD may rise towards 1.37700. Conversely, the pair may sharply drop on lower-than-expected PPI figures.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 10:11

📈 Gold rose despite more hawkish policy announced by the Fed

On Wednesday, XAUUSD rose by 0.35%, reaching 2,340. Although the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers weakened the U.S. dollar (USD), the currency recovered after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced only one rate cut in 2024.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Investors were eagerly awaiting information regarding interest rate cuts. Now, only one rate cut is expected instead of the two previously anticipated, despite the decline in inflation in May. The earlier inflation report gave false hope for a rate cut, and XAUUSD reversed and started to decline after the Fed meeting. In the short term, gold will likely continue to fluctuate until there is clarity on the interest rate path. The Fed has postponed the start of rate cuts to December. Despite unexpectedly soft inflation data and a larger-than-expected decline in headline and core figures, Fed officials revised the data with a hawkish perspective.

Gold has received support due to soft measures from major central banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), which lowered rates at the last meeting. A similar move is expected from the Bank of England and the People's Bank of China. Reuters reports: 'China's consumer inflation held steady in May while producer price declines eased, but the underlying trend suggests Beijing would need to do more to prop up feeble domestic demand and an uneven economic recovery.'

The market is recovering from yesterday's significant macroeconomic news and is expected to be relatively calm today. However, the U.S. Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims reports will be released at 12:30 p.m. UTC, which could impact the market. If the data is weaker than expected, XAUUSD may rise towards 2,350 and above. Otherwise, the pair may decline towards the important support level of 2,290.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 21:35

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 21:08

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 20:52

#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 13 June.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 18:13

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 70,000.00

👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 70,000.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 69,779.17.

Set your stop loss at 70,523.68 above the previous high ($7.45 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 69,034.66 ($7.45 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The Federal Reserve's Press Conference will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 10:28

💸 JPY moves sideways ahead of important U.S. releases

The Japanese yen (JPY) moved sideways on Tuesday as investors waited for today's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The Japanese yen might gain some support from higher-than-expected Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers. The data revealed that producer prices increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing market expectations of a 2% rise and increasing concerns about potential growth in consumer inflation. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to keep its monetary policy unchanged at Friday's monetary policy meeting. However, the interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Japan continues to exert downward pressure on Japan's national currency, giving a bullish impulse to USDJPY.

The U.S. dollar stabilised on Tuesday after reaching a four-week high. The currency rebounded following Friday's stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report, which hinted at persistent inflation and strong economic growth. This makes it less likely that the U.S. central bank will cut rates in the coming months. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in roughly a 52% chance of a rate cut in September, down from 70% a week ago.

USDJPY fell slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Market participants are awaiting the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the Fed interest rate decision with updated economic projections. If inflation exceeds expectations and the dot plot shows no planned rate cuts this year, USDJPY will likely continue to rise, possibly above 160.000. Otherwise, the pair could drop towards 152.500.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 09:53

📈 Gold started to recover after a sharp drop

Yesterday, gold rose by 0.25%. XAUUSD continues correcting upwards after a sharp drop due to the strong nonfarm payroll report released on Friday.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Strong U.S. employment data and the suspension of gold purchases by China's central bank contributed to the largest daily drop in gold, which occurred on Friday. The People's Bank of China probably hasn't fully completed its diversification, gradually reducing the share of the U.S. dollar in its currency basket. Most likely, China will become more cautious and selective when buying gold. Even though demand in China declined, the rest of Asia continues to buy gold despite the high prices. As industry representatives say, buyers are purchasing metal to protect themselves from geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Investors are hesitant to take active action before the release of today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will help forecast the timing of interest rate changes. However, the most important events of the day are the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the press conference. Overall, investors don't expect any changes in interest rates until autumn. Comments from Fed officials, economic projections, and the dot plot report may provide more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Additionally, the U.S. CPI data will be published just a few hours before the Fed announcement. All this data may give the market a better understanding of the future U.S. monetary policy and affect the Forex market.

There is currently a lot of uncertainty, and the market needs more data to define the possible XAUUSD trend. Globally, if the pair falls below 2,280, a decline towards 2,220 is likely. Conversely, XAUUSD may reach 2,380 if fundamental and economic data favour gold. Today's most important updates are the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the Fed interest rate decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC. These releases will likely cause increased volatility and affect gold. Until then, XAUUSD probably won't change much.

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Octa Analytics

11 Jun 2024 21:04

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Octa Analytics

14 Jun 2024 13:43

📈 EURUSD falls amid softer US PPI and rising Jobless Claims

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.66% on Thursday despite a softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Factory gate prices in the US decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in May 2024, contrary to market expectations of a 0.1% increase and following a 0.5% rise in April. Prices for goods declined by 0.8%, marking the largest drop since October 2023. The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 6 June rose to 242K, up from the previous week's 229K and exceeding the market consensus of 225K. Despite the weaker US economic data, the US dollar remained resilient against its rivals as the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it would only reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) towards the end of 2024. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that only ‘modest’ progress had been made towards the target and that the central bank would require ‘good inflation readings’ before implementing rate cuts, according to the BBC.

The euro may face selling pressure against the US dollar due to ongoing political uncertainty in Europe and recent rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Last week, the ECB reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its June meeting, a decision widely anticipated by market participants. This reduction lowers the ECB's key rate to 3.75%, down from a record 4% held since September 2023. Financial markets have already priced in one more rate cut for this year, but economists surveyed by Reuters last week predict two additional cuts towards the end of 2024.

EURUSD moved sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Investors are now focusing on the forthcoming US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. UTC. If the report's figures fall below expectations, it could positively influence EURUSD, potentially driving its price towards the 1.07700 mark. Conversely, if the reported figures exceed expectations, EURUSD might experience a decline.

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Octa Analytics

14 Jun 2024 08:14

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 67,150.00

👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 67,150.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 67,050.00.
Set your stop loss at 67,750.00 above the previous high ($7.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 66,350.00 ($7.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 20:49

#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 14 June.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 19:07

BTCUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the support level of 66,000.00

👉General outlook
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 66,000.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 66,959.17.

Set your stop loss at 65,168.29 below the previous low ($17.9 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 68,750.05 ($17.9 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 14:37

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 13:24

AUDUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

AUDUSD formed a bearish Three Black Crows pattern

👉 General outlook
AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bearish Three Black Crows pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66459.

Set your stop loss at 0.66576 above the previous high ($1.17 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66342 ($1.17 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. Producer Price Index report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 10:28

🕯 EURUSD fluctuated following U.S. CPI data and Fed projections

The euro (EUR) rose by 1% following a weak U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report but corrected after U.S. economic projections indicated only one 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in 2024.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The softer inflation data surprised the market after Friday's unexpectedly strong nonfarm payroll (NFP) and average hourly earnings, which pushed yields and the U.S. dollar (USD) higher. Markets have become extremely sensitive to any economic data, partly because the Federal Reserve (Fed) said it needs more evidence to be confident that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. Two-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in ten weeks after the inflation report, losing gains made following the NFP report, but then started to recover. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also declined by 0.6%.

However, EURUSD lost some gains after the Fed Summary of Economic Projections indicated only one 25 bps rate cut in 2024 and raised the longer-run neutral rate towards 2.8% from 2.6% in March. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that the new SEP projections included May's CPI data, which some investors interpreted as slightly hawkish. EURUSD retreated from its highs, but long positions remained steady as yields stayed lower and riskier assets retained most CPI-driven gains. The price action suggests investors may focus more on the data and think the Fed is reacting too slowly to the latest economic developments.

EURUSD continued to correct during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should pay attention to key U.S. reports: the Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. These updates will provide insights into the current state of the U.S. labour market and inflation rate, potentially influencing investors' interest rate expectations and EURUSD's exchange rate. If the data is better than expected, the chance of two rate cuts may decrease, causing EURUSD to drop, possibly below 1.07800. Conversely, if the reports are weaker than expected, the pair may rise towards 1.08400 as chances for two rate cuts by the Fed increase.

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Octa Analytics

13 Jun 2024 09:34

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 21:30

Octa won 3 new awards this year!

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 21:03

‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP

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1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 20:25

EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

EURUSD retested the support level of 1.08200

👉General outlook
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.08200.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.08240.

Set your stop loss at 1.07960 below the previous low ($2.80 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.08520 ($2.80 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The Federal Reserve's Press Conference will be released in a few minutes and could affect this trade.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 17:41

GBPJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

GBPJPY formed a bullish Hammer pattern

👉General outlook
GBPJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bullish Hammer pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 200.060.

Set your stop loss at 199.740 below the previous low ($2.04 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 200.380 ($2.04 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 10:13

📉 EURUSD drops towards a six-week low amid rising political risks

The euro (EUR) reached a six-week low on Tuesday as the euro weakened due to rising political instability in the region.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Investors remain bearish ahead of key U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision risks. The snap elections in France added to existing uncertainty stemming from French budget deficits. The political turmoil drove German-French yield spreads wider as investors sought safer assets. The results of the E.U. election continued to increase safe-haven interest, also widening the German-Italian yield spreads. Moreover, German-U.S. spreads increased, boosting the U.S. dollar as safe-haven flows moved from the euro to the greenback.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained steady above 105.200 on Tuesday after rising for three consecutive trading sessions. Since Friday, the DXY has increased by more than 1% due to stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, forcing traders to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market now anticipates only one rate reduction, with a September cut becoming less likely.

EURUSD moved sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders focus on two key events: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the Fed interest rate decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Markets expect U.S. CPI inflation to slow towards 0.1% month-over-month in April compared to 0.3% in March. Annualised core CPI is expected to decline towards 3.5% year-over-year from 3.6%. The Fed's upcoming rate decision and monetary policy statement will attract significant attention, but the most important data will be the so-called 'dot plot.' Investors are increasingly concerned that today's updates will reveal a shift in the dot plot, potentially excluding any rate cuts in 2024. If inflation exceeds expectations and the dot plot shows no planned rate cuts this year, EURUSD will likely drop significantly, possibly below 1.04500. Otherwise, the euro could reach 1.12000.

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Octa Analytics

12 Jun 2024 09:10

GBPUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

GBPUSD formed a bearish Engulfing pattern

👉 Level explanation
GBPUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.27500. Now, the price displays a bearish Engulfing pattern.

👉 Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.27400.

Set your stop loss at 1.27650 above the previous high ($2.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27150 ($2.50 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

11 Jun 2024 20:49

#economic_calendar

These events will affect the market on 12 June.

🔥 Don't forget to get a 50% deposit bonus!