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Octa Analytics

BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the support level of 63,500.00

👉General outlook
BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 63,500.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 64,102.89.

Set your stop loss at 62,899.75 below the previous low ($12.03 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 65,306.03 ($12.03 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

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Octa Analytics

📊Bitcoin struggles to maintain gains above $65,000

Bitcoin (BTC) reached the level of 66,400 on Thursday but failed to stay above 65,000 by the end of the day.

👉 Possible effects for traders
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency, has regained momentum, rebounding from a weekly low of $64,000 to find support above $65,000, halting last week’s downtrend. This price recovery may be attributed to another significant investment round by the business intelligence company MicroStrategy, spearheaded by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor. The company announced on Thursday the acquisition of an additional 11,931 BTC worth approximately $786 million, further cementing its status as a major institutional holder of the digital asset.

MicroStrategy’s chairman and co-founder, Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of 11,931 Bitcoin between April 27 and June 19 for $786 million. This acquisition raised the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 226,331 BTC, bought at a total cost of $8.3 billion, now valued at approximately $14.9 billion. Saylor began investing in Bitcoin in 2020 as a hedge against inflation and a cash alternative. Since then, Bitcoin has surged by around 600%. Despite this, market sentiment towards Bitcoin remains mixed, with market intelligence platform Santiment noting the community’s fear or disinterest as Bitcoin’s price fluctuates between $64,000 and $65,000.

BTCUSD fell slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, S&P Global will be releasing its latest Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) for a number of major economies. The eurozone PMI is due at 8:00 a.m. UTC, UK PMI is due at 8:30 a.m. UTC, while the U.S. PMI is due at 1:45 p.m. UTC. All three reports are likely to have at least some impact on the price of BTC, but the U.S. report is likely to have the strongest effect. If the U.S. PMI shows a pick up in economic activity and comes out above market's expectations, BTC may potentially drop—possibly below $63,000. Conversely, if PMIs reveal that business activity in the U.S. is slowing, the bullish trend in BTCUSD is likely to continue.

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Octa Analytics

📈Gold is rising after news from the Middle East

At the close of yesterday's session, the XAUUSD pair rose by 1.36%, showing the largest daily growth in the last month. The price broke through the resistance level of 2,340.00, followed by an increase to 2,360.00.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The rise in gold prices is largely facilitated by 2 factors: tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations for a rate cut in the United States this year, and possibly more than once. Firstly, the continuing news about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has the greatest effect on the price. Actively growing geopolitical tensions are encouraging investors to move into protective assets. As reported by Reuters: ‘On Thursday, several Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip killed at least 14 people and wounded dozens of others.’ In addition to the news from the Middle East, gold prices are supported by the possibility of repeated Fed rate cuts based on the latest data published in the United States.

On Thursday, the U.S. Unemployment Reports were also released, the results of which could add momentum to the market, but the data was mixed. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased compared to the previous report. At the same time, data on the volume of new housing construction showed a decline to the lowest level in almost four years. This indicates moderate economic activity in the second quarter. Spot gold prices rose 0.1% to $2,360.95 per ounce as of 3:44 a.m. UTC after hitting a two-week high in the previous session. Bullion has risen in price by more than 1% in a week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,374.60.

Gold has a lot of room for further growth, given the news from the Middle East. The price resistance level is 2,380.00, and the support is 2,340.00.

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Octa Analytics

XAUUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

XAUUSD formed a bearish Engulfing pattern


👉Level explanation
XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 2,365.00. Now, the price displays a bearish Engulfing pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 2,357.42.
Set your stop loss at 2,370.30 above the previous high ($12.88 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,344.54 ($12.88 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

EURUSD retested the support level of 1.07130


👉General outlook
EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 1.07130.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.07145.

Set your stop loss at 1.06990 below the previous low ($1.55 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.07300 ($1.55 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

BTCUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

BTCUSD retested the resistance level of 66,500.00


👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 66,500.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 66,339.88.
Set your stop loss at 67,086.87 above the previous high ($7.47 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 65,592.89 ($7.47 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

📝Fundamental factors
The U.S. Jobless Claims report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

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Octa Analytics

XAUUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

XAUUSD retested the support level of 2,333.00


👉General outlook

XAUUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 2,333.00.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,333.85.

Set your stop loss at 2,326.02 below the previous low ($7.83 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,341.68 ($7.83 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

📊Euro was stable as U.S. markets were closed yesterday

The euro (EUR) was essentially unchanged on Wednesday as the U.S. markets were closed for the holiday.

👉 Possible effects for traders
French political uncertainty continues to keep the euro on edge. Investors are concerned that the formation of a government led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) after the parliamentary elections could trigger financial distress in the European Union’s (EU) second-largest economy. The RN has promised a lower retirement age, energy price cuts, increased public spending, and the ‘France first’ economic policy in its manifesto.

The near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar has become uncertain as slower-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales growth in May has increased market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 61.5% before the May Retail Sales report. Additionally, the tool suggests that policymakers may announce another rate cut at the November or December meetings, which contradicts the Fed’s dot plot, where officials indicated only one rate cut this year.

EURUSD declined during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders are focusing on the U.S. Building Permits report, scheduled for 12:30 p.m. UTC. If the figures exceed expectations, it could adversely affect EURUSD, possibly driving the price below the 1.07300 mark. Conversely, lower-than-expected Building Permits could sustain the current short-term upward correction in EURUSD.

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Octa Analytics

AUDUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

AUDUSD formed a bearish Rectangle pattern

👉Level explanation
AUDUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bearish Rectangle pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66650.

Set your stop loss at 0.66800 above the previous high ($1.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66500 ($1.50 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

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Octa Analytics

EURUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

EURUSD formed a bearish Doji pattern

👉Level explanation
EURUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.07520. Now, the price displays a bearish Doji pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.07451.

Set your stop loss at 1.07619 above the previous high ($1.68 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.07283 ($1.68 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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Octa Analytics

📊USDJPY faces correction after U.S. Retail Sales

The Japanese yen (JPY) fell on Tuesday, but a lower-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales release triggered a correction in the USDJPY pair.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, remains close to the weekly low reached after weaker-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales data was released on Tuesday. The data indicated signs of consumer exhaustion in the US, increasing speculation of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. This has caused an overnight decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields, further pushing the USD lower.

USDJPY remained relatively stable following the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) April meeting minutes, staying close to the highest level since late April, which was retested the previous day. The minutes revealed that BoJ board members discussed the risks of a weak Japanese yen (JPY) on underlying inflation and considered the possibility of raising interest rates sooner than expected if inflation overshoots. However, this did little to impress JPY bulls or provide significant impetus to the USDJPY pair. The subdued U.S. dollar (DXY) price action continues to act as a headwind for spot prices.

USDJPY traded in a tight range between 105.240 and 105.300 during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar does not feature any major events that could potentially stoke the market. USDJPY may continue to fall after consolidation. The key levels to watch are 105.200 and 105.300.

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Octa Analytics

📊Gold remains in uncertainty

The XAUUSD pair has been trading within a sideways range of $2,300.00—$2,333.00 since the start of the week. Yesterday, it saw a modest increase of 0.45%. The U.S. retail sales report fell short of investor expectations, leading to a decline in the dollar index (DXY). However, the market responded cautiously to this news.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The relatively subdued U.S. Retail Sales data has strengthened expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The data indicated a growth of 0.1% compared to the expected 0.3%, suggesting sluggish economic activity in the second quarter. Coupled with previous figures, this has heightened investor anticipations for a rate reduction possibly as early as September this year.

As reported by Reuters, 'Federal Reserve officials, heartened by recent data, are seeking further confirmation that inflation is cooling and monitoring signs from a robust labour market as they cautiously steer towards anticipated interest rate cuts by year-end.' Additionally, according to the annual review by the World Gold Council (WGC), more central banks plan to bolster their gold reserves this year, with many expecting others to follow suit despite high precious metal prices. However, it's notable that central banks paused their gold purchases in May, and the continuation of this trend poses a risk to gold price growth.

Today, no significant reports are anticipated. The market volatility is expected to be moderate. The XAUUSD pair is poised to test the resistance level at $2,340.00. The support level is anticipated at the previous day's low of $2,306.00.

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GBPJPY, 1-hour timeframe chart

GBPJPY broke the resistance level of 200.700


👉General outlook
GBPJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 200.771.

Set your stop loss at 200.349 below the previous low ($2.67 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 201.322 ($3.49 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.31.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

AUDUSD broke the support level of 0.66400

👉General outlook
AUDUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.66334.

Set your stop loss at 0.66553 above the previous high ($2.21 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.66113 ($2.21 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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Octa Analytics

📊Euro tumbles despite disappointing U.S. data: rate differential, global uncertainty take center stage

The euro (EUR) lost 0.39% on Thursday despite the fact that the U.S. macroeconomic statistics generally came out weaker-than-expected.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Building Permits and Philadelphia Manufacturing Index both came out lower than the market anticipated, but that did not hurt the U.S. Dolar Index (DXY). On the contrary, DXY gained 0.41% yesterday, driven by a drop in other major currencies—particularly the British pound (GBP) and the Swiss franc (CHF). Indeed, traders attribute yesterday's rally in the greenback to the growing interest rate differential between the US and the rest of the world. Currently, the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be less dovish in its monetary policy, exerting a cautious approach to future rate cuts. Conversely, other major central banks remain committed to easing their policies. In fact, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) uexpectedly cut its base rate yesterday, while the Bank of England (BoE) suggested that an early rate cut is possible. Furthermore, upcoming elections in France and the United Kingdom give dollar an additional boost. ‘Political uncertainty around the world is going to continue to give the dollar a bit of strength until those events are settled and markets can adjust to a new political order.’ said Helen Given, associate director of trading at Monex USA, in Washington D.C.

EURUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading session. Today, traders should focus on the string of Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs), which will be released throughout the day. German PMI is due at 7:30 a.m. UTC, the eurozone PMI is due at 8:00 a.m. UTC, while the U.S. PMI is due at 1:45 p.m. UTC. All three reports have the potential to significantly impact EURUSD. Higher-than-expected PMIs normally produce a bullish impact on the currency. In case the eurozone figures disappoint, while the U.S. figures surprise on the upside, EURUSD will likely drop below the important 1.07000 level.

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Octa Analytics

USDCAD, 30-minute timeframe chart

USDCAD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern


👉Level explanation
USDCAD has been trading in a bearish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.36870.

Set your stop loss at 1.36620 below the previous low ($1.83 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.37120 ($1.83 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

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2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

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XAUUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

XAUUSD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉Level explanation
XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,362.58.

Set your stop loss at 2,341.99 below the previous low ($20.52 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,383.10 ($20.52 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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📊USDCAD holds steady above 1.3700 as BOC remains cautious on rate cuts

The Canadian dollar (CAD) was essentially unchanged on Wednesday and continued to trade above the important 1.37000 level as traders digested the minutes from the latest Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The BOC Summary of Deliberations released yesterday indicated that Canada's central bank was uncertain whether inflation would continue to slow. Consequently, members of the BOC's governing council agreed to postpone rate cuts for an additional month, which they eventually implemented on 5th June. Currently, investors are pricing in a 58% chance that the central bank will further ease in July. Meanwhile, the market does not anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates until September, suggesting sustained bearish pressure on USDCAD in the near term. However, there are limits to how much Canada's monetary policy can diverge from that of the U.S., given their strong economic ties. Traders are therefore not expecting significant movements in CAD pairs until Canada's May inflation report is released on 25th June. ‘We're focusing on next week's inflation report as the primary catalyst to potentially reintroduce volatility in the market,’ commented Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis for Monex Europe and Monex Canada.

USDCAD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading session. Today, the focus is on the U.S. data. A string of macroeconomic reports—Jobless Claims, Building Permits and Philadelphia Manufacturing Index—will be released at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The simultaneous release of these reports may have a noticeable impact on all USD pairs, including USDCAD. If the data comes out better than expected, the pair may rise towards 1.37700. Conversely, worse-than-expected results may trigger a sell-off in USDCAD, pulling the pair below 1.36800.

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📊Gold is rising ahead of U.S. Jobless Claims

On Wednesday, the exchange rate of XAU/USD experienced fluctuations between 2,325 and 2,335 due to the absence of significant reports. Prior to the close of the trading session on Wednesday, gold was 0.04% lower than the previous day's closing price.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Based on recent data indicating moderation in the labour market and price pressures, the U.S. Federal Reserve is seeking further confirmation that inflation is abating. The central bank is, therefore, proceeding with caution as it moves towards what is expected to be one or more interest rate cuts by the end of the year. The CME FedWatch model indicates a 67% probability of a rate reduction in September, an increase from 61.5% prior to the release of the Retail Sales report in May. On Tuesday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, described the latest consumer price inflation figure as 'excellent' and expressed his expectation that inflation could continue to cool this year.

The XAUUSD pair was trading higher during the Asian and early European sessions on Thursday, reaching 2,340. This was before the release of the weekly U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. GMT today, which is expected to provide further insights into consumer spending and overall economic strength. A lower-than-expected reading from the upcoming data is likely to be seen as negative for XAUUSD, as it may indicate weaker demand for gold. Conversely, a reading higher than the market's expectations could be interpreted as positive for the precious metal, suggesting that economic conditions remain strong.

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‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP

Unlock premium signals, exclusive offers, and important events to boost your trading success.

To become a member of Octa Analytics VIP, follow these easy steps:

1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Let us steer you toward success. The sooner you join, the more you’ll benefit from our elite trading community!

💯 Limited-time offer 💯 Don’t miss the opportunity to use the BONUSVIP100 promo code for a 100% deposit bonus!

Читать полностью…

Octa Analytics

USDCAD, 30-minute timeframe chart

USDCAD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉Level explanation
USDCAD has been trading in a bearish trend within the last day. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.37087.

Set your stop loss at 1.36909 below the previous low ($1.30 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.37265 ($1.30 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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BTCUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

BTCUSD formed a bearish Engulfing pattern

👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 65,505.85. Now, the price displays a bearish Engulfing pattern

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 65,086.33.

Set your stop loss at 66,178.88 above the previous high ($10.93 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 63,993.77 ($10.93 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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📊Euro flat despite weak U.S. data, eyes on French elections

The euro (EUR) experienced a rather volatile trading session on Tuesday but finished the day essentially unchanged despite the weaker-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Retail Sales growth slowed in May due to lower gasoline and motor vehicle prices, which reduced revenue at service stations and auto dealerships. The data had a bearish impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), pushing EURUSD higher. 'A softer pace of consumption may actually be welcomed by the Fed [Federal Reserve], as it makes the task of returning CPI [Consumer Price Index] back to target that much easier, especially given the key role domestic consumption plays in driving the U.S. economic activity,' said Stuart Cole, chief economist at Equiti Capital. Indeed, the probability of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 increased yesterday, making the euro more attractive for investors.

An additional bullish factor for the euro was that the eurozone ZEW Economic Index came out higher than expected, even as German figures missed analysts' forecasts. Overall, the market expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to be less dovish compared to the Fed, pricing in one rate cut in October and the second one only in January or March 2025.

The major risks for the eurozone, however, stem from upcoming political events. The parliamentary elections in France may bring an unwelcome result and steer instability in the debt market. A recent survey by Ernst & Young, published yesterday, revealed that business leaders believe Europe must foster greater political stability, cut the red tape, and reduce energy price volatility to reverse a declining trend in foreign investment.

EURUSD was relatively flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today’s formal macroeconomic calendar does not feature any major events that could have a significant impact on the euro pairs. An established short-term bearish trend will likely persist, but some consolidation in the range of 1.0725-1.0760 is possible ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims.

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XAUUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

XAUUSD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern

👉Level explanation
XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bullish Three White Soldiers pattern.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 2,332.50.

Set your stop loss at 2,325.50 below the previous low ($7.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,339.50 ($7.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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GBPUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

GBPUSD broke the resistance level of 1.27200

👉Level explanation
GBPUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.27265.

Set your stop loss at 1.27102 below the previous low ($1.63 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.27428 ($1.63 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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