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Anton Gerashchenko is an official advisor and a former deputy minister at the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, ex-member of the Ukrainian parliament. Cooperation - @Tatiana_Pravda
How the situation might develop for Ukraine with the new US President?
Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to end the war in Ukraine "in 24 hours" during his election campaign. Obviously, pre-election promises and what actually happens might differ.
How could this happen - in theory? And what are some options of how events might unfold? It's important to note that these are now just theoretical musings, until official statements from Mr. Trump appear after election results have been announced.
◾️If the United States does make a decision to end the war in Ukraine quickly, that can actually happen. Then, it will be really important to agree on the conditions of the end of the war that would suit both Ukraine and Russia. These conditions must not mean Ukrainian defeat and Ukraine must get effective security guarantees. This is challenging, but achievable.
‼️In the context of negotiations, it is important to realize that the USA and Ukraine are allies. So any attempts by the new administration to force Ukraine to make a peace deal at the cost of Ukraine itself will mean a US defeat to Russia and the world, as Putin wages a war with the US, not with Ukraine.
Russia will obviously delay this process but it can be influenced via China and other countries of the Global South that are interested in the war ending as soon as possible.
◾️According to Wall Street Journal (link below), the general consensus seems to be that Donald Trump's administration will aim to end the war by "freezing it" along the current front line. A demilitarized zone can be created in that area. Peacekeepers there would likely be from the armed forces of an EU country or the UK, not the United States. In that scenario, Ukraine would continue getting large weapon supplies to deter any future Russian attacks.
The question of Ukraine's NATO membership remains, as some sources who claim to be familiar with Trump's thinking claim that Ukraine won't be allowed to join the alliance for decades in an attempt to appease Russia.
Mr. Trump has also said that he wants to reconsider US participation in NATO if he is elected, so the alliance might be reshaped, as well. The same goes for the EU-US relations that are likely to undergo a transformation.
As of today, there are no guarantees that Europe will follow the US lead in such matters and won't act more independently.
Another possible scenario is for Mr. Trump to stop military support for Ukraine altogether or make it extremely small. In this case, Ukraine will have to rely on the EU and UK for military support. South Korea has mentioned it is considering the possibility of sending weapons to Ukraine as North Korea has sent troops to Russia. If that happens, the EU will have some more time to ramp up its military industry and production of shells.
One more scenario is to remove restrictions for Ukraine to use long-range weapons on Russian territory and increase weapon supplies exponentially to give Ukraine a military advantage over Russia. Previously, it was believed that this option might lead to an angry response to Russia and could potentially start a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.
So far, one thing is very clear: we are currently in the situation of strategic uncertainty. There will be a lot of experts, comments, opinions, forecasts and predictions. We must do our best to keep a cool head and wait for official statements and information.
For Ukraine, the most important thing are effective, acting security guarantees - without them, it would not be the end of war, it would be a pause to let Russia rearm itself.
Putin's victory in Ukraine will be a defeat for the United States and the West. I think the new US administration is well aware of that.
For now, the war continues, Ukraine stands and fights.
https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-presidency-ukraine-russia-war-plans-008655c0
Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia with missiles and aerial bombs.
There were five hits, including residential buildings and a hospital.
At least 5 medical workers were injured, and the patients are being evacuated or transferred to other facilities - local authorities.
A round up of latest Ukraine-related news in the context of US elections:
▪️President Zelensky had a call with Donald Trump late last night, congratulating him on a "historic and convincing victory." The Ukrainian President praised Trump’s campaign efforts and acknowledged his team and family. The two leaders agreed to maintain close communication and deepen their cooperation, with Zelensky emphasizing the importance of strong U.S. leadership for global stability and a just peace.
▪️Donld Trump and South Korean President Yoon talked about North Korea’s latest nuclear developments, missile launches, and troop deployment to Russia, alongside concerns over security and urgency in Ukraine. The leaders also agreed to meet in person soon, according to the South Korean president’s office.
▪️Former Trump National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien reportedly revealed at a conservative gathering that top candidates for Secretary of State in a possible Trump administration include Senators Marco Rubio and Bill Hagerty, along with former Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell. Notably, Rubio recently called the war in Ukraine a “stalemate,” Grenell advocates for freezing the conflict along current frontlines, and Hagerty opposed U.S. aid to Ukraine even as most Republicans supported it.
▪️The Biden administration is preparing a last-minute effort to send Ukraine the remaining $6 billion in security aid before Inauguration Day. Officials are facing logistical challenges, as it typically takes months for equipment to reach Ukraine after approval. Only weapons already in U.S. stock can be sent swiftly, with new manufacturing posing delays.
Please share other important events and facts regarding Ukraine in the comments.
Lavrov:
"Russia has never refused contacts with anyone – talking is better than isolating ourselves from each other."
Kyiv last night.
Each night, Russia attacks our peaceful cities.
Today, six Kyiv districts suffered damage from the Russian drone strike.
Russian drones fly very low in Kyiv during attacks, making it harder to shoot them down and causing more damage.
This Russian tactics is aimed at threatening Ukrainian civilians.
Californian Matthew Sampson, a veteran of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, spent 635 days on the battlefield in Ukraine as a volunteer.
"I felt it was my duty to use my skills, experience and desire to help in order to protect the Ukrainian people. During my time in Afghanistan, I had unique opportunities to talk to local residents who gave me and other marines proof of what Russians did when they invaded Afghanistan during the Cold War," Matthew says.
Glory! Thank you, Sir!
📹: NV
Residents of the town of Narimanov in Russia's Astrakhan region go to the river for water: there is no water, electricity and heating in the town.
Also, they gathered to collect signatures to appeal to Putin.
But Putin has no time, he is busy waging a bloody war, giving orders to bomb civilians in Ukraine and killing his own people.
The United States has its next president, Donald Trump. Ukraine and the United States are close allies in the fight against Russian attempts to destabilize the world order and combating Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Obviously, the results of the US presidential election and the changes in Congress will have a great impact on Ukraine. The United States is by far our largest partner and provides us with the largest financial and military assistance. Meanwhile, Ukraine is currently one of the strongest military powers in Europe, with real military experience. We are committed to ensuring lasting peace and security in Europe and the transatlantic community with the support of our allies.
At first glance, it seems that the possibility of a "war freeze" has become a much more realistic option. This poses a considerable danger to Ukraine unless effective security guarantees are provided instantly to deter Russia. However, it is also unclear whether Putin is interested in ending the war, whether he is actually ready for real negotiations, or whether he will stall for time. The lifting of sanctions against Russia will be a key topic and indicator.
If Ukraine remains a de facto "gray zone," the Kremlin's expansion will become faster and take on other forms: bribery, blackmail, sabotage, and attempts to bring pro-Russian politicians to power. The case of Georgia is dangerous and not that unrealistic if we are talking about the future of Ukraine without effective security guarantees from the West.
Given these threats, the question of Ukraine's existence in the third year of a full-scale war remains a truly existential one. Ukraine is also facing a very difficult winter.
So far, this is purely theoretical talk. We need to wait for Mr. Trump's statements and analyze his real steps.
Russian foreign ministry said in an official statement that "the running political elite in the US...adheres to anti-Russian attitudes." It went on to say that Russia is "focusing on achieving all the goals of the special military operation."
This seems to be the unified position of Russian authorities today: United States is anti-Russian, we will continue the war.
Partial translation of the statement:
"We do not harbor illusions about the elected American President, who is well known in Russia, and the new composition of Congress, where Republicans, according to preliminary data, prevail. The ruling political elite in the United States, regardless of party affiliation, adheres to anti-Russian attitudes and the line of 'containment of Moscow'. This line is not subject to fluctuations in the U.S. domestic political barometer, whether it is about 'America First' as interpreted by Donald Trump and his supporters or about the 'rules-based world order' Democrats are 'fixated' on.
Russia will work with the new Administration when it 'settles' in the White House, rigidly defending Russian national interests and focusing on achieving all the goals of the special military operation.
Our conditions are unchanged and are well known in Washington."
Reports have appeared that Taganrog boiler-making plant in Russia is on fire.
The plant is listed as an organization belonging to Russian defense industrial complex. There have been reports it is involved into repairs of Russian military equipment.
Russian MP Popov commented on US election results. He thinks that Donald Trump will lift all restrictions on long-range weapons.
Russia is worried.
Trabslation of Popov's post:
"I think that Trump will offer Russia a deliberately unfavorable deal on Ukraine before January, which we will, of course, reject.
Donald will throw up his hands and, in his usual manner, announce an unprecedented aid package for the Zelensky regime and the lifting of all restrictions on missiles.
This will not change anything either. But it will delay the settlement process.
Glory to the Russian soldier!"
American democracy has once more demonstrated its unpredictability.
Donald Trump declared his victory.
It is important not just who will become president, but also: who will be in his team, who will be responsible for foreign policy, who will lead the country's defense in a world in which the U.S. continues to be the guarantor of the security of its allies.
The axis in the form of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea has become considerably stronger recently. The future U.S. president will have to deal with the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
Changes await the situation in the Asia-Pacific region as well. Allies of the United States there – Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan – must also think even harder about their security due to an ever-stronger China and nuke-waving Kim Jong Un.
Clearly, NATO will experience turmoil, and the Europeans, mindful of Donald Trump's statements that Europe must handle its own defense, will need to unite and invest more effort and money into defense, especially in support of Ukraine.
In the coming years, Ukraine should focus primarily on Europe, because it shares common risks with us and benefits from security in Ukraine. European politicians and societies already realize this.
In any case, the world will face a big change. Alas, these probably won't be times of stability and tranquility.
A video appeared online that reportedly shows cars with mock-ups of nuclear missiles targeted at the US embassy in Moscow on November 4th.
The missiles have "At Washington" written on them.
And Russia declares itself the most peace-loving country in the world...
A selection of the Russian equipment destroyed in the past few months by Ukrainian Defenders.
I hope this cheers you up!
"I dug up the child first. Then the guys came and got my wife out." - a man had to dig his daughter out after a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia.
One person was killed and ten wounded, including a one-year-old child.
Two people, including an employee of a medical facility, are in serious condition.
Search and rescue operation continues. There might be more victims.
Putin said that neither his father nor mother had ever used swear words, and that Russian people "almost never swore because they were religious and regularly went to the bishop to confess."
I pity Putin’s personal “bishop” who has to listen to his confession and absolve him of his sins. The list of his absolutions must be endless.
By the way, I am sure all of you know at least a few words of Russian. I am willing to bet that most of those are swearwords.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte: the strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea are not only a threat to European security, but also for the United States.
"Russia is delivering the latest technology into North Korea in return for North Korean help with the war against Ukraine and this is a threat not only to the European part of NATO but also to the US," Rutte said before a meeting with European leaders in Budapest.
"I look forward to sit down with Donald Trump to discuss how we face these threats collectively," he added.
Two major political events are happening in Budapest on 7 and 8 November: the European Political Community (EPC) Summit, which unites over 40 leaders from almost all European countries (except for Belarus and Russia), and the summit of EU27 leaders.
What should we expect from the first meeting of Western heads of state after the US elections and the first visit of the Ukrainian President to Hungary since the full-scale invasion?
Both Zelensky and Orban already spoke to Trump on the phone. Hungarian PM Orban spoke out about “big plans for the future” after his conversation with Trump today.
It is highly likely that Orban will now assume the role of one of the middlemen in the negotiations with Putin. At least for the time being. The circle of potential mediators will likely be broader and its important to watch China’s stance closely.
◾️Right now Ukraine needs a broad coalition. And coalitions usually matter more than the mediator. So for us, it is key to broaden the circle of mediators.
◾️Knowing Putin’s strategy, it’s worth keeping in mind that he will stall for time (officially the Kremlin has stated they have no intentions of negotiating anything before the inauguration)
◾️We can expect to see a lot of misinformation about peace plans, mainly from Russian propagandists, which will try to demoralize the Ukrianian society, already anxious to the max, exhausted and not able to discern where the preparation of the plan ends, and the real plan begins.
◾️Any talk of a very swift end to the hostilities is, unfortunately, an illusion.
Today, leaders from 40 European countries will gather a Budapest stadium for a two-day summit of the European Political Community (EPC) and EU leaders.
High on the agenda is discussing the potential impact of Donald Trump’s victory on Europe.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is also expected to attend, marking his first visit to Hungary since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
📸: Reuters
Yet another sleepless night for many in Kyiv - the Russian drone attack lasted for eight hours. Explosions were heard in many districts. Fires started in several areas.
📷: the aftermath of a drone attack in Kyiv
Let's distract ourselves from the elections for a moment with this review of a Russian Lada car.
In its basic configuration for 1.5 million rubles (~ $15,000), the car won't have airbags, a sun visor mirror, a stereo, speakers, an armrest, a light in the glove compartment, and parking sensors.
Videos have surfaced that allegedly show North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, whom Russians teach words only Russians can teach.
I cannot confirm the authenticity of these videos.
Reports appeard that two warships were hit in Russian Kaspiysk.
The "Tatarstan" and "Dagestan" missile ships were reportedly damaged in a drone strike on the Caspian Fleet in Dagestan.
Small missile ships of Project 21631 Buyan-M were also damaged.
Russian propagandists are very uncertain that Donald Trump's victory will be beneficial for Russia. They are afraid of more sanctions.
(This is yesterday's video)
Commenting on the US elections, Peskov said the US can end the war. He blamed the United States for "constantly adding kerosene into this conflict".
The aggressor state keeps blaming everyone else but themselves.
Medvedev was one of the first Russian officials to comment on the results of the US elections.
Amid his usual rant, he made an interesting point:
"The question is how much will they make Trump pay for the war. He's stubborn but the system is stronger."
Medvedev realizes that the US will continue supporting Ukraine.
Russian media report a drone attack on Kaspiysk in Russian Dagestan.
Several flights have been delayed in the local airport.
Ukrainian Border Guards added four fluffy teammates to their unit - a cat they adopted gave birth to four kittens. Their dad also visits.
Today, I pray that the first decisions and actions of the new US President are helping Ukraine win! This is security of the whole world and Ukrainian lives.
📹: State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
"Russia is open to mutually beneficial cooperation with all states without exception on the principles of equal rights, non-interference in internal affairs and strict observance of international law" - Putin told ambassadors of 28 countries.
Look at their faces while he talks.