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Anton Gerashchenko is an official advisor and a former deputy minister at the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, ex-member of the Ukrainian parliament. Cooperation - @Tatiana_Pravda
The situation in Syria continues worsening exponentially for Assad's regime.
According to reports from various open sources Since November 27, the Assad regime army has lost more than 389 units of equipment. Mostly Russian equipment:
▪️34 aircrafts and helicopters (24 L-39; 9 MiG-23; 1 Mil Mi-8);
▪️145 tanks;
▪️96 various armored fighting vehicles;
▪️87 artillery units and MLRS;
▪️5 units of engineering equipment;
▪️18 air defense systems;
▪️3 radars.
Meanwhile, rebel forces seem to be rapidly advancing towards Damascus.
This video, shared by Russian Telegram channels, allegedly shows a crowd tearing down a monument to Assad's father in Jaramana, just 4 kilometers from the capital. Law enforcers and officials are reported to have fled the city.
‼️Part 2: What does this mean for Ukraine?
At the heart of these dynamics is Ukraine. Our ability to maintain territorial integrity and political cohesion is essential not only for our survival but also for the broader balance of power in the region.
Ukraine’s immediate challenge lies in preserving its internal cohesion and resisting military advances by Russia, which continue at great cost to the aggressor. Despite these pressures, Ukraine has managed to secure financial and military support, ensuring it remains a viable player on the global stage.
The risk lies in domestic political scandals or mismanagement, which could give the impression of weakness. Such perceptions could erode international support. Conversely, Ukraine’s resilience offers a pathway to maintaining its voice in international negotiations and leveraging global partnerships to pressure Russia.
The coming months will be critical, with geopolitical fault lines sharpening around Ukraine. While Europe remains preoccupied with its own political cycles, including Germany’s upcoming elections, Ukraine must continue to demonstrate strength and unity. This period offers both challenges and opportunities: the possibility of a temporary resolution to the conflict, or a prolonged standoff with significant implications for global power alignments.
Ukraine’s ability to endure and assert its agency in this turbulent environment will not only shape its own future but also influence the broader regional and global order.
Meanwhile, rebels are also reportedly approaching Damascus from the south. They are less than 30 km away from the Syrian capital. According to Russian war bloggers, Syrian government forces are retreating without fighting.
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Sanctions are working: Russian strike drones are more likely to go off course after replacing servo motors with Chinese ones, - The Washington Post.
Sources for the publication note that technical issues with Iranian-made Shahed-136 UAVs assembled in Russia, which Russians call "Geran-2," have been observed this year.
During sharp turns, they lose control; some crash, while others stabilize but become easy targets for Ukrainian air defense.
Experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) suggest that the likely cause is the replacement of the servo motor, which helps regulate drone movements in flight.
At the end of 2023, due to difficulties obtaining components amid sanctions, Russians began using Chinese servo motors instead of those manufactured in South Korea.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/12/05/russian-sanctions-weapons-ukraine-war/
📸: National Police of Ukraine
A crowd gathered outside the South Korean parliament ahead of the vote on impeachment of the current president. Earlier, it was reported that the majority of lawmakers from the ruling party of South Korea decided to boycott the vote. Impeachment requires 200 out of 300 votes of lawmakers. The ruling party controls 108 seats in parliament.
The President gave a national address this morning.
"I deeply regret and sincerely apologize to those who may have been alarmed by the declaration of martial law. I will not avoid legal and political responsibility for this. From now on, the management of the country's affairs will be the responsibility of my party and government," Yoon Suk Yeol said.
Explosions were heard overnight in Maykop, the capital of Russia’s Adygea region.
No air raid alert was sounded. The smoke and explosions were allegedly seen close to the local airfield, Russian Telegram channels report.
Drone attacks also reported in Voronezh, Astrakhan and Belgorod regions.
Not only Lukashenko is happy about the possible deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, but also his ministers. Maxim Ryzhenkov, head of the Foreign Ministry, believes that it will be easier to have a dialogue with Western partners having these missiles in their country, and Belarusian Finance Minister Yury Seliverstov is sure that now the West will have to lift sanctions against Minsk.
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Tomorrow, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the US President-elect Donald Trump will attend the Notre-Dame Cathedral reopening ceremony in Paris.
Agence France-Presse (AFP), citing its sources, reports that when he arrives in Paris, Zelenskyy will meet with President Macron.
"Other meetings are also possible, notably with President-elect Donald Trump," a senior Ukrainian official told AFP.
Source: https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2024/12/06/reouverture-de-notre-dame-une-quarantaine-de-chefs-d-etat-et-de-gouvernement-attendus-a-paris_6433722_3224.html
"Why are you going to NATO? You don't get Karelia back."
Former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö recalls that this was the question Putin asked him when they first met.
A few years have passed. Finland is a member of the Alliance. Meanwhile, the territorial collapse of Russia is now more likely than ever.
🇫🇮 🇺🇦 Congratulations to Suomi on Independence Day! We thank you for your help and support in our fight against the common aggressor!
Russians are preparing to celebrate Christmas and the New Year. They have a festive atmosphere. They are buying gifts for their children and families.
At the same time, they are razing Ukrainian cities to the ground, leaving nothing but ashes. They are destroying our energy sector so that we and our children end up in dark and cold homes in winter.
I would like to say just one thing - God sees everything.
A missile strike on Kryvyi Rih damaged an administrative building.
The city's regional military administration reported that as of now, there are two killed and eight injured as a result of the strike. One of the injured is a six-year-old girl.
Today, on the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we not only recognize the soldiers defending Ukraine at the moment but also cherish the memory of the male and female Defenders who died protecting Ukraine.
Some of them were farmers, some of them were poets, and some of them ran successful businesses. They wanted to live, raise children, travel... To make coffee in the morning, to achieve success at work, and to hug their loved ones in the evenings. But the war unleashed by Russia forced them to take up arms.
Our brave Warriors gave their lives for Ukraine and a peaceful sky for their children. And we will do everything to finish what they fought for - for preserving our statehood and for people to live in a peaceful and free country. Let's honor the memory of all the fallen Heroes.
Damascus city center has allegedly been attacked by drones. The explosion reportedly happened next to the buildings of the Ministry of Defense and the national TV and radio broadcasting company, Telegram channels report.
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‼️ The Constitutional Court of Romania has annulled the results of the 1st round of the Presidential election.
The judges ruled on this in an emergency session after reviewing the declassified intelligence documents that suggested a foreign manipulation campaign took place in the first round.
Now a new election date will have to be set.
Source: https://www.ccr.ro/comunicat-de-presa-6-decembrie-2024/
Russian Z-channels reported the capture of Palmyra by Syrian opposition units.
"Here goes Palmyra. I'm not sure it will be recaptured a third time," Z-blogger Boris Rozhin reported.
Rozhin and other Z-bloggers say Assad's military, Russian, and Iranian representatives have left the city. Palmyra is under the control of the Turkish- and US-backed Syrian Free Army and Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham.
In addition, Rozhin writes of Assad's loss of control over the cities of Daraa and Quneitra. Homs could be captured in the next 48 hours, he adds.
Against this backdrop, Lavrov said Russia continues to provide military assistance to the Syrian army.
Barron's newspaper, citing AFP, reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, after talks on Syria with Russian and Turkish counterparts, said parties agreed on the initiation of "political dialogue between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition groups."
Source: https://www.barrons.com/news/iran-fm-urges-political-dialogue-between-syria-govt-opposition-3af50c75
How can we characterize the geopolitical moment we find ourselves in? I offer an interesting analysis by expert Oleksii Kopytko on the recent main headlines and how they are all connected:
We need to look beyond the current events and put all of the locations and countries that have featured so heavily in the news lately into a broader context. Georgia, Romania, and even Syria are all countries at the crossroads between East and West. What’s happening there today is a reflection of this status and the growing influence and interests of China in these regions. With a lack of success in Ukraine, Russia is giving up its positions to Beijing, which is interested in these East-West routes for its own expansion and trade.
Some of the current events may have more major impacts on Ukraine than others.
Protests in Georgia, much like the tough elections in Moldova before this, were predictable. They are important, but the real decisive moment for Ukraine is happening on the opposite shore of the Black Sea, in Romania.
Romanians have been the silent, stabilizing factor on the Eastern flank of the EU throughout this war, while the other Ukrainian neighbors Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have stirred up problems in different ways. Perhaps because things were going so smoothly in Bucharest, few people expected the elections in Romania to become as major of a threat as they have. The future of the elections is still undecided, with the annulment of the Presidential vote, but this uncertainty may trigger other problems – in Moldova, where a crucial Parliamentary election is taking place next year, and in Ukraine’s relations with its EU neighbors.
But a lot of what is happening is interconnected on a broader geopolitical scale, particularly vis-a-vis China's growing influence.
Take Georgia, for example. While on the surface the current struggle in the country is between pro-Russian and pro-Euroatlantic forces, Moscow is significantly weaker now than it was before 2022. That means that the win of the pro-Russian authorities will pull Georgia closer into China’s orbit. Georgia’s current government already signed a visa-free agreement with China in April, signifying the beginning of this shift. It is simple power of gravity.
China is a different kind of geopolitical player than Russia. If they do establish greater influence in the Black Sea region, they would want stability and even demilitarization over war, because that means trade. Their influence could expand to Crimea and even the coast of Ukraine. Depending on Romanian elections, incursions of Chinese influence could even extend to the EU.
That makes the job of President-Elect Trump quite difficult. He needs to assess and resolve the wars in Ukraine and Syria in ways that do not create a domino effect of Chinese influence in two key crossroads regions. That is something he definitely wants to avoid if he is to continue his firm stance on China.
Syrian rebels are allegedly fighting with Assad's army in the streets of Homs. Reported by Russian Telegram channels.
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Local factions have declared control over the southern Syrian city of Daraa. Like in Hama, a monument to Hafez al-Assad has also been torn down.
AFP, citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), confirms that 90% of the Daraa province and the city itself have come under rebel control.
Naval drones of the Ukrainian Navy unit attacked Russian-seized gas rigs in the Black Sea.
Russian surveillance systems located on the seized gas platforms off the coast of the temporarily occupied Crimea were destroyed, Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa said.
Explosions were reported in Crimea near Kerch earlier. On December 6, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the alleged destruction of two maritime drones near Crimea.
📹: Ukrainian Navy
More night club raids in Moscow last night.
At least 3 establishments were targeted by law enforcement - Sisters, Bizzare and Central Station.
Russian Telegram channels reported that the reason for the raids were suspicions of “holding LGBTQ+ parties”.
The incredible story of Andrii Turas, an officer of the 36th Marine Brigade, who defended Mariupol at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
He was taken prisoner and tortured in Russian torture chambers. After two and a half years of captivity, in September, Andrii returned to Ukraine after being exchanged, where a very pleasant surprise awaited him - he learned that he had a son, Leon, who was already two years old.
📹: TSN
Russia has shown the launch of a Zirkon missile up close for the first time, but there is a catch.
Russia has conducted exercises in the Mediterranean Sea involving all ships of the Russian Navy's operational grouping stationed in Tartus.
◾️ As Defense Express notes, the footage of the Zircon hypersonic missile launch may be a montage from previous test launches. In addition, the published video has sparked discussions among a number of analysts that the Zirkon missile may be based on the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missile.
◾️ Analysts also paid attention to the type of ships from which the Russians carried out Zircon launches - these are Project 22350 frigates. Earlier, the Russians claimed that they had modernized two such ships into Zircon missile carriers. This means that the number of surface carriers of these hypersonic missiles is limited, and it is unlikely that they can be deployed on other missile ships of the Russian Navy.
◾️ In addition, there is no publicly available footage of P-800 Oniks missile launches from surface ships. Previously, the Russians said they could launch them from 3S-14 launchers on corvettes and frigates. However, the lack of such footage raises doubts about the ability of these ships to launch Oniks missiles.
Nine people killed and six wounded after the Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia.
Among the victims are two children aged 4 and 11.
As a result of the Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia region, a car service station is on fire. Three people were killed, and, preliminarily, 4, two of whom are children, were injured, the city's regional military administration reported.
Some communities in the region have problems with electricity. Emergency services are already working at the site of the strike.
Russia doesn't have a plan to save Assad's regime and doesn't see one emerging due to Syria's army abandoning positions - Bloomberg
Moscow has used warplanes to strike rebel positions during the rapid advance of the latter, but there's been no clear pronouncement of support or deployment of forces. It makes a repeat of the 2015 rescue by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's allies look increasingly unlikely, especially since Putin's response, who previously helped Al-Assad, has been muted.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/syrian-rebels-eye-next-prize-while-assad-awaits-russia-and-iran
Also, Sky News Arabia sources told Russia informed Damascus that any intervention would be limited and that it has "other priorities at this time."
https://www.skynewsarabia.com/middle-east/1760317-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%83%D9%88-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%BA-%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%B4%D9%82-%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%94%D9%88%D9%84%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%94%D8%AE%D8%B1%D9%89
Lukashenko asked Putin to deploy Oreshnik missiles on the territory of Belarus.
"I want to publicly ask you to have the new weapons systems and, above all, Oreshnik deployed on the territory of Belarus. This would calm some minds," said the illegitimate leader of Belarus.
Putin promised to satisfy Lukashenko's request:
"The deployment of such systems is possible. It will become possible in the second half of next year."
Putin also added that the targets to be hit by Oreshnik from the territory of Belarus will be chosen by the military and political leaders in Minsk.
Additional divisions of Russian Special Operations Forces have allegedly arrived in Syria. This is reported by Russian Telegram channels citing sources in Syria.
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Putin recalled the updated nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation and the possibility to use tactical nuclear weapons located in Belarus for defensive purposes.
Meanwhile, Belarusian State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich said that both Putin and Lukashenko have their own “nuclear briefcase” and the capacity to launch nuclear weapons from the territory of their respective countries. This is reported by Belarusian state media.