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r/FantasyPL [reddit.com/r/fantasyPL] Telegram group chat: @rFantasyPL By @reddit2telegram [Discuss: @r_channels]
GW1 POST-DEADLINE REGRET THREAD
When I retire from FPL, I don't want to just disappear to an island somewhere. I want to be the guy who gives everything back. I want it to be like:
"Hey, who donated that hospital wing that is saving so many lives?"
"Umm, well, uh, I don't know. It was anonymous."
"Well, guess what? That was u/BillOakley!"
"But— it was anonymous, how do you know?"
"...Because I'm him.”
Good luck this season.
https://redd.it/1etussm
@r_FantasyPL
90 Minutes to Deadline Thread! (GW1 24/25)
This is it! It all comes down to this. You’ve tinkered for months. Butchered your team a hundred times, only to start over and over again. Many of you aren’t gonna be in Salahland. There are new bald frauds in town. Should we clench as tight as we can? Time will tell.
Best of luck to the community. On we go!
Reminder: The app/website could crash near the deadline. Lock down your final changes!
https://redd.it/1etsk1n
@r_FantasyPL
GAME WEEK 1 - CAPTAIN POLL
GW1 captain poll thread can be found HERE.
Updates in real-time. Discuss your choices here.
You can use the poll as an indication of selections, in order to select a safe captain or a differential captain.
Note: Did not see one created yet so doing a last minute poll. Talk about cutting it late!
https://redd.it/1etjcn8
@r_FantasyPL
[Jack Gaughan] Guardiola says Rodri hasn't had a training session with City yet and won't be considered for Sunday.
https://x.com/Jack_Gaughan/status/1824410914889568360?t=IwBgnTkco2p8peRSlefuVw&s=19
https://redd.it/1etmkka
@r_FantasyPL
If your someone that Analyses stats to make decisions, what platform do you use?
Hi all,
I like to read / compare data for players, teams when making decisions as I know allot do, but what platform do you use to gain your stats?
I've only been playing FPL 2 seasons, finshed 1110357 in my first season (2nd in mini league) and 994654 second season (2nd in mini league) no doubt both due to luck! The first season I used Fantasy Football Scout, and the second I used Fantasy Football Hub, nether of these services have really stood out to me as a must have but I like to have access to a better display of FPL data than the FPL website / application. Am I missing something about theses sites to feel this way, or is there better 3rd party websites/applications out there that I've not heard about. When i first started all I heard about was Scout and Hub , is that all there really is to offer?
https://redd.it/1dvufpi
@r_FantasyPL
Ultimate Preseason Stats 24/25
Hi all,
Some of you might have used my preseason spreadsheet from last year.
I have now improved it with some new data (OPTA Rank, Pens Conceded, Team Goals Conceded ++) as well as many improvements to data validation & handling in my backend spreadsheet(s).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fJbFGSL-mwCRqRegLl\_GgaA7wE2nDUr90dEYOAWDLyk
As of now, there are little data due to no preseason matches has been played.
If you'd like to see how it will look when data gets added, please look at this spreadsheet from last year:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pwm1jsMgR1StDhqJ5TfTIKFMfwg48tI8cSbkL9j5uBM
Don't hesitate to contact me if you discover bugs, or possible improvements to the spreadsheet.
https://preview.redd.it/6hm13ikncnad1.png?width=1772&format=png&auto=webp&s=9671a297a3c9b0eb06425dd66abb4abd33fea639
https://redd.it/1dvrlx9
@r_FantasyPL
Tomorrow has been FPL launch day for the last 2 years but given there’s been no prices that looks unlikely, especially with 2 x EURO 2024 QFs. My guess is still 8th at the earliest or possibly 11th between semis and final. Otherwise maybe they just wait until after 14th. [Andy LetsTalk_FPL on X]
https://x.com/letstalk_fpl/status/1808848404270714993?s=46
https://redd.it/1dvg34e
@r_FantasyPL
Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread
We have a **reputation system**. Reply !thanks to someone who has helped you and this rewards them with a point, shown next to their username.
This thread is for:
RMT (rate my team)
X vs Y
Advice
Quick Questions
If any of the above are posted outside this thread it will be removed. Before posting, use the search function to check if your question has been answered already.
For advice with your team, please include a screenshot with your team & ask your specific question or concerns if any.
Please upvote the users who are helping and be respectful during the discussion.
Please try to contribute too by helping others when possible.
____
To view real time comments in this thread click **here**.
To compare players check out the incredible FantasyPL_Bot commands available **here**)! For example:!fplbot <player_name> vs. <team_name> <optional: number of fixtures>
https://redd.it/1dv3i32
@r_FantasyPL
Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread
We have a **reputation system**. Reply !thanks to someone who has helped you and this rewards them with a point, shown next to their username.
This thread is for:
RMT (rate my team)
X vs Y
Advice
Quick Questions
If any of the above are posted outside this thread it will be removed. Before posting, use the search function to check if your question has been answered already.
For advice with your team, please include a screenshot with your team & ask your specific question or concerns if any.
Please upvote the users who are helping and be respectful during the discussion.
Please try to contribute too by helping others when possible.
____
To view real time comments in this thread click **here**.
To compare players check out the incredible FantasyPL_Bot commands available **here**)! For example:!fplbot <player_name> vs. <team_name> <optional: number of fixtures>
https://redd.it/1duauer
@r_FantasyPL
Squad Depth Charts, New Transfers' Impact and Euro 2024/Copa America/Olympics Impact on Each Premier League 2024/25 Club
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15D0vwEVJk-DWcfn5s_DqYLwtRYHqzpdadOoOq0Ivh4M/edit?usp=sharing
https://redd.it/1dtqdic
@r_FantasyPL
Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread
We have a **reputation system**. Reply !thanks to someone who has helped you and this rewards them with a point, shown next to their username.
This thread is for:
RMT (rate my team)
X vs Y
Advice
Quick Questions
If any of the above are posted outside this thread it will be removed. Before posting, use the search function to check if your question has been answered already.
For advice with your team, please include a screenshot with your team & ask your specific question or concerns if any.
Please upvote the users who are helping and be respectful during the discussion.
Please try to contribute too by helping others when possible.
____
To view real time comments in this thread click **here**.
To compare players check out the incredible FantasyPL_Bot commands available **here**)! For example:!fplbot <player_name> vs. <team_name> <optional: number of fixtures>
https://redd.it/1dticc9
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[OFFICIAL] Aston Villa is delighted to announce the signing of Ross Barkley! Some smart business from Villa
https://www.avfc.co.uk/news/2024/july/01/Villa-confirm-Barkley-signing/
https://redd.it/1dth2q6
@r_FantasyPL
what’s already happened: they don’t predict the future.
But they can be used to help us try.
Why we like expected stats.
If, heaven forbid, you’re ever stuck in a pub with the Professor (he's our resident LazyFPL expert), he’s probably going to talk to you about expected stats.
He loves ‘em. Not because they’re the definitive measure of a player’s potential, but because they complete a tapestry of other indicators that he uses to build an impression of a player or team.
Expected stats are at their best when used across a big sample size. The more games we have to look at, the more representative they’ll be.
That’s because of variance: any player can register a decent xG tally in a singular game, but it’s the ability to do that game after game that we’re looking for.
A team’s composite expected stats can also be useful. Does a team have a high expected goals conceded? That means they’re defensively vulnerable; even if they’re not actually conceding those goals.
So how can expected stats help us to forecast?
We’re looking for players who have good expected stats but poor actual stats. That means they’ve had good chances but haven’t converted.
In other words, we should be on the lookout for underperforming players.
On the other hand, players with poor expected stats who are registering lots of FPL returns are overperforming: by the theory of variance, they’re unlikely to continue their output.
Teams work in the same way. If a team’s expected goals allowed is low, that’s information we can use when picking a defender - even if the team in question have been unlucky enough to concede goals regularly.
Of course, this isn’t an exact science. Some players will consistently underperform, some will regularly overperform.
How accurate are expected stats for prediction?
An independent study by Lars Maurath suggested that depending on model quality, between 79% and 93% of team seasons should be expected to match xG to goals within a 95% confidence interval < I copied and pasted that from Google…perhaps it’ll make sense to some of you.
But the existence of outliers means it should be mixed with water before you neck it.
For example, here are the top six scorers from last season:
Haaland: xG = 31.65 / Actual goals = 27
Cole Palmer: xG = 17.83 / Actual goals = 22
Alexander Isak: xG = 22.07 / Actual goals = 21
Dominic Solanke: xG = 21.41 / Actual goals = 19
Phil Foden: xG = 11.31 / Actual goals = 19
Ollie Watkins: xG = 19.26 / Actual goals = 19
For some players - like Watkins - the xG is incredibly close to his actual return. For others - like Foden - there’s quite a wide gulf.
So for xG and its associated metrics to be most instructive, they must be diluted with some subjective interpretation. We know, for example, that Foden is typically quite clinical (unless he’s playing for England), and his xG to goals ratio confirms that. On the contrary, a player like Nicolas Jackson - who has a reputation for being more wasteful in front of goal than the celebrities in a SoccerAid game - has 14 goals from nearly 20xG.
Unsurprisingly, team expected stats are similar.
Generally the best defensive teams have the lowest xGA too, but that’s not always the case. Man United conceded a relatively respectable 58 goals last season - fewer than Newcastle, Chelsea, Spurs and Villa, but had a higher xGA (74.76) than all of them.
So variance can impact teams positively and negatively too.
Final thoughts.
If there was an exact science in football, it would be boring. And FPL would be less fun and a heck of a lot more administrative.
Expected stats must be used responsibly. We shouldn’t really be talking about xG after Gameweek 1 or 2. It’s a measure that gets more accurate the longer the season endures, and even then, there’ll always be outliers.
But expected stats, for all of their limitations, remain one of the best tools we have at our disposal to get an idea of a player.
It’s why we’ll mention them if we see an opportunity worth sharing - but always with a TV chef’s pinch of
Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread
We have a **reputation system**. Reply !thanks to someone who has helped you and this rewards them with a point, shown next to their username.
This thread is for:
RMT (rate my team)
X vs Y
Advice
Quick Questions
If any of the above are posted outside this thread it will be removed. Before posting, use the search function to check if your question has been answered already.
For advice with your team, please include a screenshot with your team & ask your specific question or concerns if any.
Please upvote the users who are helping and be respectful during the discussion.
Please try to contribute too by helping others when possible.
____
To view real time comments in this thread click **here**.
To compare players check out the incredible FantasyPL_Bot commands available **here**)! For example:!fplbot <player_name> vs. <team_name> <optional: number of fixtures>
https://redd.it/1dsph7k
@r_FantasyPL
When will the FPL game go live for 24/25?
https://youtu.be/T7Xkl0KPhi4?feature=shared
https://redd.it/1dslz6t
@r_FantasyPL
Gameweek 1 24/25 Rant and Discussion Thread
This is the place to moan and discuss every single thing that happened in games and with your team. If your player didn't start or saw a red card, or you picked the wrong player, captain, or other, this is the place to share all your rants, memes, and outbursts (and your score). We have included all relevant information about the current gameweek - lineups, bonus, and predicted averages, etc.
From all of the mod team - good luck!
Join to r/FantasyPL code 54ho2z
THREADS
Captain Poll can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/s/US0NtgD1Hm
RMT Thread can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/s/WK6kb18ouc
How did ___ Play?:
BONUS POINTS
Anewpla or FPL Alerts will provide live bonus updates.
LIVE RANKINGS
https://www.fplgameweek.com/
https://www.livefpl.net/rank
**This is NOT an RMT thread. Please do not post questions about your team.**
https://redd.it/1etqapw
@r_FantasyPL
Odobert, Szmodics and Kalvin Philips price reveals
https://redd.it/1etod8x
@r_FantasyPL
Ipswich announce signing of Sammie Szmodics
https://x.com/ipswichtown/status/1824408302731563021?s=46
https://redd.it/1etmgiu
@r_FantasyPL
What's your biggest differential player going into GW1?
The beginning of season can tend to end up with a very strong template – are you mixing things up, and if so with who?
Make the case for why your player is actually essential and throw everyone's settled teams into turmoil!
For me it's Pinnock at 0.5%. Far from the most exciting option but he's consistent, rotates well with my other defenders, and is an aerial threat from set pieces.
https://redd.it/1etjp06
@r_FantasyPL
Rate My Team, Quick Questions & General Advice Daily Thread
We have a **reputation system**. Reply !thanks to someone who has helped you and this rewards them with a point, shown next to their username.
This thread is for:
RMT (rate my team)
X vs Y
Advice
Quick Questions
If any of the above are posted outside this thread it will be removed. Before posting, use the search function to check if your question has been answered already.
For advice with your team, please include a screenshot with your team & ask your specific question or concerns if any.
Please upvote the users who are helping and be respectful during the discussion.
Please try to contribute too by helping others when possible.
____
To view real time comments in this thread click **here**.
To compare players check out the incredible FantasyPL_Bot commands available **here**)! For example:!fplbot <player_name> vs. <team_name> <optional: number of fixtures>
https://redd.it/1dvum3e
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FPL has started adding the new kits
https://redd.it/1dvh5oe
@r_FantasyPL
Erik ten Hag extends Manchester United contract
https://www.manutd.com/en/news/detail/erik-ten-hag-extends-contract-as-manchester-united-manager
https://redd.it/1dv3jpa
@r_FantasyPL
Iliman Ndaiye joins Everton
https://x.com/Everton/status/1808455657856667676?t=mz0Zkd9IzMV2Z9jdHss1ww&s=19
https://redd.it/1ducbph
@r_FantasyPL
Matchday 5: Best Players × Updated Stats
https://youtu.be/_FanxMbb6_U?si=5-2j3t2FXhduGy-P
https://redd.it/1duah4w
@r_FantasyPL
Chelsea sign KDH from Leicester (12G14A in 44 games last season)
https://x.com/ChelseaFC/status/1808138623318999544
https://redd.it/1dtmn4s
@r_FantasyPL
Spurs sign Archie Gray from Leeds on a six-year contract. Total package worth up to £40m
https://x.com/SpursOfficial/status/1808071574580334640
https://redd.it/1dthu0e
@r_FantasyPL
A quick guide on expected stats and how to use them to be a better FPL manager.
Alright? The following is taken from the free pre-season newsletter we send every Sunday, designed to keep you in the loop on everything that's happening in pre-season. You can sign-up here if you fancy.
___
Expected stats are widely considered to be the most accurate, holistic metric for predicting football performance. But what are they? What are their limitations? And can they really be used as an accurate forecast?
Decoding the acronyms.
Expected stats are every marketer’s dream: full of acronyms but easy once you know what they mean.
The most common expected stat is expected goals - or xG.
You’ll also see expected assists (xA) and expected goals allowed (sometimes called expected goals conceded) which, you’ve guessed it, is xGA or xGC.
Occasionally it can be useful to know about a team or player’s expected stats per 90 minutes. Take the acronym and add /90 to the end of it. So 1.02xG/90 means 1.02 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Now and again you’ll see NPxG - this means non-penalty expected goals. Because penalties will obscure a player or team’s xG.
There are others. xGOT (expected goals on target) and xP (expected pass completion) are like those weird cousins that you only see at weddings. They’ll turn up now and again, but you don’t need to invest too much time in getting to know them.
What is an expected goal?
An expected goal is the likelihood of a shot being scored. Every shot is measured on a scale between 0 - 1: the higher the number, the higher the probability that a shot ought to result in a goal.
A penalty, for example, has an xG of 0.76.
Once we know what an xG is, we can figure out the rest. Expected assists are assigned to the player who created the chance. Expected Goals Allowed shows us how many expected goals a team concedes.
How is xG calculated?
Expected goals are a complex calculation. They use a range of criteria based on analysis of hundreds of thousands of shots. That criteria includes:
- the speed the ball is traveling when it’s struck.
- the height of the ball (is it on the ground or mid-air?).
- the angle and proximity to the goal (obviously).
- the number of players between the shot and the goal.
The fact a penalty is 0.76 should speak volumes. It’s very hard to find a chance with a higher xG than \~0.9, and most will be significantly less. A chance with a 0.5xG from open play would be considered a very decent opportunity.
The problems with expected stats.
We’ll talk about the good stuff shortly, but a quick acknowledgement of their limitations is important too. Expected stats are not a perfect measurement.
1) A shot has to be registered.
Let’s imagine Kevin De Bruyne has just flashed a pass across the face of goal. The goal is gaping and a waiting Erling Haaland has a simple tap-in if he can connect.
But he misses the ball completely. Perhaps he couldn’t reach it. Or perhaps he just knew that we’d all Triple Captained him that week. In any case, the ball runs out for a throw-in and the chance is over.
As FPL managers, we’d consider that a big moment. A huge opportunity missed. Points down the drain.
But such a moment wouldn’t be acknowledged by expected stats. A shot wasn’t registered, which means it was 0.00xG for Haaland and 0.00xA for De Bruyne, despite the quality of his pass.
As far as expected stats are concerned, nothing happened.
2) The quality of the player isn’t considered.
A penalty for Cole Palmer against Jordan Pickford is 0.76 expected goals.
A penalty against Pickford for this writer, who hasn’t kicked a ball since 2002, is also 0.76.
3) xG can differ between stats providers.
Not all expected stats are built equally. Different stats engines can assign different weighting to the variables, or include/discount different variables altogether.
4) It focuses on the past, not the future.
It’s worth remembering that xG and its other xFamily record
Creating a Football Boardgame: 1-Minute Survey
Hey all
I am working on a boardgame in which the center of the game is answering questions in order to test your football knowledge. The questions will ask about certain players, managers and clubs.
This survey is about finding what competition(s) you find the most exciting! About what section of football would you enjoy the most to play the boardgame. Down below is a number of options, plus please add any custom option to the answer.
I appreciate tremendously for your response, and thank you kindly for your time and effort. Have a lovely day!!
Survey: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfsLtOj1zZqVp0q\_9XoAHup59an6fMoAsONf8RMQLCzpO9mVg/viewform?usp=sf\_link
https://redd.it/1dsnzrb
@r_FantasyPL
Question for Fantasy Football players, let me know your opinion!
Wouldn't be great if there were an app where we could play Fantasy Football with more players from different leagues? Like having a Team with Mbappe, Kane and Haaland in one team.
What do you think about that?
https://redd.it/1dry8yj
@r_FantasyPL
