На днях говорили об использовании новых технологий в сфере мошенничества и вот замечательная статься об эффективности spear phishing (целевой фишинг?) кампаний.
В ней краткий обзор исследования “Evaluating Large Language Models' Capability to Launch Fully Automated Spear Phishing Campaigns: Validated on Human Subjects” опубликованного 30 Ноября 2024. Ссылка в статье.
Изюм подхода в том, что ИИ агенты собирают публичную информацию о жертве в интернетах и упаковывают в очень индивидуальное сообщение.
Использование LLM (Большая Языковая Модель) увеличило эффективность более чем в 4 раза против контрольной группы. Проходимость (click-through) таких emails на уровне 54-56%.
Жду исследования об эффективности использования ИИ в системах обнаружения и блокировки.
#BraveNewWorld #AI
January 2025.
Данный тезис нуждается в уточнениях.
Структурно экономики этих стран экспортно ориентированы. Индия - исключение. Но кто-то должен быть импортером. Если взглянуть по-другому, то чрезмерная доля экспорта это неспособность внутреннего спроса потреблять собственную продукцию. Как правило из-за низкой оплаты труда.
Это системная проблема. Следовательно эти страны не в состоянии сбалансировать торговлю между собой. Сапожник без сапог, не способен купить сапоги другого сапожника.
Вторая причина - очень разные весовые категории. Китайская экономика это около 70% номинального ВВП первых пяти стран. С позиции условной РФ, товарооборот с Китаем растет, и даже профицитен (больший объем экспорта ресурсов, при меньшем импорте товаров), но с китайской стороны это чистая мелочь, на которую можно закрыть глаза. Китай сколько угодно может иметь негативный баланс со всеми странами БРИКС, пока у него профицит от США+ЕС.
В-третьих, любой дисбаланс в торговле приводит к аккумулированию одной из сторон валюты контрагента. Но все участники системно девальвируют свои валюты (или за них это делает рынок) в целях конкурентности. Такие валюты напоминают игру в горячую картошку - каждый старается побыстрее избавиться. Гос. облигации, в теории могут являться механизмом накопления торгового дисбаланса. Именно так поступают основные экспортёры относительно США. На практике, долговые бумаги БРИКС, мягко говоря, не очень надёжны, а местные обычаю предполагают периодические кидки инвесторов. Фактически те же грабли что с валютами.
Без структурного увеличения доходов населения, относительно производимой продукции, эти страны будут нуждаться во внешних импортерах. Это США и ЕС. Условия торговли диктуют и будут диктовать потребители. Оплата собственной валютой естественно.
На фоне вышесказанного, экспортёры энергоресурсов маржинально в более выгодном положении. Условная Индия может пренебречь импортом отдельных категорий товаров, но будет вынуждена покупать углеводороды. К тому же экспорт полезных ископаемых (commodities) удобней для обхода санкций, чем экспорт готовых товаров при взлете импортных пошлин.
Потуги в сторону без долларового клиринга не достигнут какого-то значимого уровня, а будут выполнять роль ВБД и лапши на ушах “электората”.
#economics
January 2025.
Вот как выглядит инвестиционный результат если следовать публичным советам предсказателей апокалипсиса. Комментарии данных персонажей, о кризисе 2007-09, сильно впечатлили автора этих заметок, что привело к серьёзным упущенным выгодам.
Stock market climbs the wall of worry!
#finance
Сегодня Korean Air одна из самым безопасных авиакомпаний в мире. Ресурс airlineratings.com оценивает безопасность перевозчика на 7/7. Данные за Сентябрь 2024. В списке самых надежных по версии Форбс за тот же год, Korean Air на 12ой позиции.
Но так было не всегда.
В конце 1990х Korean Air была одной из самых опасных. Delta Air Lines и Air France отказывались продавать билеты на её рейсы. Пентагон запретил американским военным летать этой компанией. Канада была близка к введению запрета на допуск Korean Air в своё воздушное пространство. В 1999 году, президент Южной Кореи предпочёл Asiana, для визита в США. Его цитата “an embarrassment to the nation" относилась к послужному списку безопасности данной компании.
Как же им удалось, за относительно небольшой срок, радикально улучшить безопасность?
Элегантное и практически бесплатное решение предложили консультанты от Boeing и Delta Air Lines. Обязательный и полный переход на английский в кабине самолёта. Все пилоты на международных рейсах им владеют, дополнительных вложений не требовалось.
Но почему это сработало?
В корейской культуре, подчиненный, обращаясь к руководителю, всегда исходит из позиции уважения и непререкаемости авторитета старшего. Мол, ты начальник, я дурак. К тому же, сам корейский язык имеет довольно витиеватую и анахроничную структуру обращения к уважаемому человеку. Это замедляло общение, а в критических ситуациях важны доли секунды. Как правило, второй пилот, наблюдая ошибки командира или сбои оборудования, не мог настоять на необходимых изменениях. Оценка ситуации капитаном, какой бы ошибочной она не была, принималась за данность. Помощник не мог возражать, и действовал согласно озвученным инструкциям. Это приводило к катастрофам.
Переход на английский заставил пилотов отбросить традиционную мышечную память. Сделал общение более лаконичным и на равных. Не имея тормозов в виде культурных блоков, второй пилот уже свободней влиял на ситуацию. Он мог оспаривать капитанское мнение. В английском это не возбраняется.
Это ещё один пример гипотезы Sapir–Whorf: язык определяет мышление. В более широком смысле эпизод подчёркивает значимость культурных кодов на конечный результат.
#history
January 2025.
Распространённая ошибка в дискуссиях – подмена значимости качественного и количественного аргументов. Человек делает верное качественное утверждение, но количественная составляющая упускается. Без неё тезис зачастую теряет смысл. Поймать такое оппоненту не всегда легко. Требуется знание контекста и натренированная аналитическая мышечная память.
Для примера, типовой аргумент сторонников легитимности Израиля – евреи покупали земли у арабов, и, следовательно, строили государство на своей земле. Так-то оно так, но есть нюанс.
К моменту основания Израиля, в мая 1948, евреи приобрели приблизительно два миллиона дёнюм (dunam, единица измерения площади, 1 дёнюм = 1000 м²) земли в Палестине, что составляло около 6% территории под Британским мандатном. Приобретённые земли были сконцентрированы в прибрежных регионах и долинах. Данная количественная поправка редко озвучивается, но она критически важна для реального понимания ситуации.
За полгода до декларации независимости, план ООН по разделу Палестины (the Partition Plan) предусматривал 56% подмандатных земель для нового государства.
#history
Lately, some commentary has focused on individuals entering the federal government with links to Palantir, Piter Thiel, and PayPal Mafia. The likes of Kash Patel, Elon Musk, David Sacks, JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy.
The narrative centers on their libertarian views, ruthless efficiency, and track record. From this foundation, far-fetched speculations are laid for structural changes in how government will operate. Especially around allocations of the DOD budget towards military-industrial incumbents. The case is made for said individuals to champion their alma mater firms for closer integration with government agencies and subsequent applications of "big data" and "big brother" tech. This will soon result in a more efficient government (with fewer employees) and total digital control over all aspects of our lives. First in the USA, then globally. Palantir is spotlighted for the big data analytical capabilities its software played in eliminating violent crimes in El Salvador.
But anyone who knows a thing or two about American history and its political system should expect less drama. To start, this won't be the first time Palantir's alumni entered government roles. The following individuals were there before. It was business as usual.
- Alex Stamos: Former member of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Advisory Committee, was also a member of Palantir's advisory board.
- Trae Stephens: appointed to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2019.
- Kevin Harrington: served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering at the DOD.
- Michael Kratsios: served as the Chief Technology Officer of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Going further, there is a well-established tradition of inviting the best and the brightest from the private sector into the federal government. Below is a very short list of such individuals in the 20th century:
- Joseph P. Kennedy Sr: Successful stock speculator and investor. The first chairman of a newly established SEC under FDR.
- Robert S. McNamara: President of Ford Motor Company (1960-1961) before becoming Secretary of Defense (1961-1968).
- William E. Simon: A businessman and investment banker who served as Secretary of the Treasury (1974-1977).
- Donald Rumsfeld: Secretary of Defense under Presidents Ford and George W. Bush. Before his government service, Rumsfeld was CEO of G.D. Searle & Company.
- Henry Paulson: Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Paulson was chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs before joining the government.
- Robert Rubin: Secretary of the Treasury (1995-1999). Rubin started a career as an attorney, then moved to Goldman Sachs.
Prominent and even controversial, these individuals were not known to advance the interests of their former firms.
Additionally, U.S. law has several provisions to prevent conflicts of interest for executives of private firms entering the federal government. Here are some key regulations:
- Ethics in Government Act
- 18 U.S.C. § 208 (Conflicting Financial Interests)
- Federal Acquisition Regulation
- Procurement Integrity Act
As such
- Musk, as a member of the National Space Council, recused himself from discussions related to SpaceX.
- Thiel, as a member of the President's Transition Team, reportedly sold his Palantir shares to avoid conflicts of interest.
Yes, laws could be broken. "Regulatory capture" is a problem, but government institutions are not headed by school kids either. An up-and-coming district attorney, hungry for political points, will keep players in check. Media, always avid for a scandal, is never too far behind. Ultimately, the executive branch is overseen by Congress. A widely diverse pool of interests won't idly stand by, while some shrewd entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley will attempt to reshape the inner workings of the government.
Incoming department heads deserve the benefit of the doubt, but to expect radical change is to lose touch with reality. Institutional inertia is not a bug, but a feature.
#AmericanDynamism
How did your real estate perform?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-performing-sp-500-stocks-in-the-last-two-decades/
#finance #AmericanDynamism
How a single invention changed the course of history.
Until recently I struggled to understand how the Dutch Republic, a tiny newly established state on the European periphery, could dethrone the Portuguese Empire in a spice trade. It's not exactly that Iberian sailors were schoolboys. On the contrary, they were instrumental in imposing their power on locals of the Indian subcontinent and islands of the Far East. They epitomized the state of the art in shipbuilding and navigational know-how of the era. And yet, the Dutch prevailed. But a little historical context first.
- On May 4th, 1493, Pope Alexander VI issued a bull "Inter caetera" to divide the newly discovered world between Spanish and Portuguese monarchies.
- In 1494 the Treaty of Tordesillas was negotiated to better define boundaries.
- Portugal discovered the Spice Islands (modern Indonesia) in 1512.
- 1568 –1648, Eighty Years' War. Dutch ultimately succeeded in gaining independence from Habsrubgs.
- In 1580 the Iberian Union was formed. A previously neutral Portuguese Empire entered the ongoing conflict with the Dutch, on the side of Spain. Hostilities expanded to the high seas.
- 1595 – 1597, the First Dutch Expedition to the East Indies. It had limited success, however, it demonstrated the viability of the enterprise and opened the door for future expeditions.
- In 1602 The Dutch East India Company (VOC) was formed. It is one of the first joint-stock companies in the world and a significant financial innovation by itself. The opportunity to invest was open to all members of society.
- 1628, The Portuguese established the Portuguese East India Company, a joint-stock company with the king as the majority shareholder. Portuguese dominated east trade in this period.
A stage was set in the late 16th century, and early 17th century, for a trade and military competition between the Dutch and the Portuguese over the spice trade. It later developed into a conflict known as the Dutch-Portuguese War of 1598-1663. Not only did the Dutch come up on top, but they also managed to defeat England in the Second Anglo-Dutch War (England was victorious in the first one). Brits were getting upset with the Dutch monopolizing the trade. Not to mention several wars against a little catholic fellow known as Louis XIV of France. The Dutch Republic entered its Golden Age.
Arguably, a single invention, by a modest farmer catapulted the Dutch to its zenith. In 1594, Cornelis Corneliszoon van Uitgeest developed a machine to harness wind power to saw wood. He built his first sawmill. The critical component of his design was a crankshaft, which converted circular motion into back-and-forward motion powering the saw. He made additional improvements in the subsequent years and obtained a few patents. Initially, local carpenters opposed the invention, but very quickly the whole society realized the benefits, for plenty of ordinary citizens were VOC investors. Productivity soared by a factor of 30 (3,000%). The Dutch started to crank out ships at unrivaled speeds and quantities.
By the early 1600s, the Dutch Republic became the world's foremost naval power. The Spanish fleet was destroyed in 1607 at the Battle of Gibraltar. By 1650, the Netherlands had about 16,000 merchant ships. In 1667, in Raid on the Medway, the Dutch delivered a crushing naval defeat to England. The next year, William III aka William of Orange, toppled James II and put himself on the British throne, to end the beef with England.
This fascinating story underscores the importance of technological innovation and its application to the balance of power. This is especially breathtaking if one considers the population of competing powers in the 17th century.
Iberian Union and possessions ~ 28.7M
England and possessions ~ 5.6M
Kingdom of France ~18-20M
Dutch Republic ~1.5M
The U.S. can trace its innovative dynamism to the Dutch lineage.
#history
If you're tired of short sound bites and stereotypical analysis of current trends and seek a more nuanced view, this recent interview with Peter Thiel is a must. It's long but insightful.
His body language, composure, and demeanor, demonstrate deep thinking about the questions. This is a more welcomed response, contrasting with the dogmatic answers of mainstream talking heads.
Here is an incomplete list of discussed topics:
- Election postmortem.
- A collapse of identity politics and elitism on the left.
- Wokeism is dead.
- Trump's victory was even more significant against a demographic backdrop (boomers generally republican leaning, but dying).
- "Ideologically deranged millennial employees" (my favorite quote).
- Tariffs & trade. Thiel correctly understands the dynamics of the current trade regime, and how it deviates from 19th-century ideas of free trade based on competitive advantage. Who benefits and who suffers in the US.Suggests analyzing trade not only via the optics of consumers but with adjustments for producers and geopolitics.
- Zoning laws benefiting boomer homeowners at the expense of the younger generation.
- Deportations.
- Education and federal financing of private universities.
- Student debt crisis and possible solutions.
- J D Vance.
- War in Ukraine and rethinking of neocon foreign policy. Hints at realpolitik and to shift away from idealism.
- Israel and the usual suspects in the Middle East.
- Democracy and populism.
- A balance between skepticism and dogmatism in modern science and culture.
- The role of tech and the Internet in the transparency of politicians and government institutions
Guest correctly identifies numerous issues facing this country and hopes the incoming administration is better positioned to deal with these than the alternative.
#AmericanDynamism
January 2025
Конечно, эта картинка тоже искажение. Автор проанализировал высказывания только относительно вложений в SP500, но ведь существуют и другие активы. David Rosenberg, предлагал вкладываться в Японию, Индию и золото, а его общий портфель, где SP500 всего лишь часть, в плюсах. Peter Schiff, будучи перманентным почитателем золота видимо тоже может похвастать неплохими результатами на фоне взлета цен на желтый металл.
Читать полностью…
On December 21, 1998, AMZN reached a price of $324.8. In about three years, on September 24, 2001, a low of $5.9 was printed. That's a 98% correction. The Dot-com bubble piercing in action. The next time the prior peak was breached was 15 years later, in October 2013. Myriad companies associated with the internet revolution and online retailing didn't survive.
This is the appropriate context to consider when investing in AI companies today.
Happy trading!
#ЖадностьПорождаетБедность #finance
January 2025.
You can't teach an old dog new tricks.
During 25+ years as a professional software engineer across two dozen teams and projects, the words "bug" and "defect" were used interchangeably and meant the same thing. Lately, our scrum gods have insisted on specific and appropriate usage of these terms. It turns out that "bug" applies to a defect in the UAT environment, while "defect" is a bug in production. Pun intended.
Being a bit curious I googled the subject and one of the results provided the following definitions:
- "A bug is a problem in the software that causes it to behave unexpectedly or incorrectly."
- "A defect is a deviation from the expected behavior or requirement of the software."
Pardon my ignorance, but I can't grok the difference between unexpected behavior and a deviation from the expected one. It sounds like someone needed to elevate their expertise level above coding plebs by generating meaningless content.
Some things ought to remain as is.
#twotypesofpeople
There are 147 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.6 million are owner-occupied and 34 million (or 40%) of which are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows.
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
#factoftheday #economics
The tragedy of American geopolitics is the following hypocrisy. Internally, the U.S. welcomes and cherishes cultural, ethnic, and religious diversity. We embrace a free market of ideas and subjective pursuit of happiness. Yet globally, we push for one type of statehood and one type only - a liberal democracy. Any other form of government is not to be tolerated. Perhaps this thinking arose from the experience of the American Century, the winning of the Cold War, the unipolar moment, and intellectual works such as Fukuyama's book "The End of History and the Last Man". The why doesn't matter. Not everyone shares or accepts this form of political organization. The results are more blood and misery around the world. In the long term, this will only erode our moral position and increase adverse consequences.
In the short term, however, life is good. As a former colleague of mine summarized: "I don't like the American foreign policy, hence I live within".
#AmericanImperialism
