ВВП США на душу населения $80K. Мексики $11K. Данные за 2023 год.
С 1890 года реальный рост американской экономики 2% годовых в среднем. Если бы темпы роста были на 1% в год меньше (да это сокращение на 50%), то сегодня американский ВВП на душу населения находился бы на мексиканском уровне - $13.6K. Так выглядит power of compounding в действии.
Данная методология полезна для анализа эффективности санкций. Санкции – тормоз экономического развития.
#factoftheday #economics
How about this metric? If most of a household's wealth is linked to its primary residence, namely housing equity, then it's middle class or lower. Otherwise, it's upper-middle class and beyond.
#twotypesofpeople #finance
Amateurs discuss Trump's Executive Orders. Pros await judges' decisions. How many of those initiatives will die due to lack of funding is a bonus question.
#politics #twotypesofpeople
Trump made an error in judgment by publicly opposing and threatening the creation of the BRICS common currency. A clever strategy would be to encourage the formation of this chimera and watch it fail. If that's twisted then ignoring these political whims entirely would be a pragmatic course of action. It would've been a dead-on-arrival anyway. Nothing strengthens the USD more than the collapse of a competing currency regime.
Instead, our easily triggered champion of US nationalism took the bait and provided credibility to the idea. Why would Trump fiercely oppose it had it not been a serious threat, a BRICS sympathizer would reason. Furthermore, this act indirectly supports incumbent politicians whose currency plans have vaporized. They could now rally local support in case the power grip will loosen. Nothing unites people more behind the ruling elites than external threats.
Escalatory nationalism begets more nationalism elsewhere. I hope these lessons were learned in the 20th century.
#AmericanImperialism
Ask anyone what a stock is expected to do following such a miss and 9 out of 10 will say to tumble. And yet, price action is neutral to up post earnings.
A lonely voice will say - it depends. Indeed. Markets trade on expectations.
#twotypesofpeople #finance
Есть два типа людей. Первые жалуются подругам на своих мужей. Вторые - мужья подруг.
Ходите к психологу. Берегите репутацию близких, и свою...
#twotypesofpeople
Метания об стену продолжаются. Стена держится. Кто-то следит за счётом?
#AmericanDynamism #politics
Бей своих чтоб чужие боялись.
Бесстрашный воин играет с огнём.
#economics #AmericanImperialism
I frequently stress the importance of seen vs. unseen analysis. People routinely skip the latter and fall for the survivorship bias fallacy. To be fair, it is more challenging to obtain data on what is amiss.
When medical systems from various countries are compared, the one we have in the U.S. is frequently criticized. I'm not trying to dive into the deep rabbit hole of comparative analysis but to make a single point, demonstrating the importance of what is not seen.
Since 2018, Over 75,000 Canadians Died Waiting for Health Care
In a recent interview, Mark Rubio eloquently signaled a pivot from an ideological vector in geopolitics towards realpolitik. I'm consciously optimistic, for I never respected neoliberal motifs for international strategy.
#politics #AmericanDynamism
В августе 2024 я обращал внимание на статью, отображающую серьёзные различия между недооценкой американцами социально-экономических явлений и реальным положением вещей. Так, например, респонденты оценили кол-во трансгендеров в обществе в 21%, против 1% в реальности. 27% - оценка кол-ва мусульман, против 1% в реальности.
После победы Трампа нужно признать, что его команда мастерски сыграла на подобных искажениях в головах обывателей. Легко манипулировать человеком, не владеющим фактами и питающимся личными иллюзиями.
В этом свете очень показательна данная картинка, отражающая идеальное, оценочное и реальное распределение богатств в США.
#factoftheday
Marc Andreessen, a legendary investor, was the first to call DeepSeek revelations a
Sputnik moment
Believer: You can tell me all you want about Trump but hostages are coming out, not all but still, and for that я буду за него топить, no matter what. This piece was supplied in support.
Skeptic: The article you referenced has no mention of him. So this begs a question how exactly do you link him to hostage release?
Believer: Bro pls lol.
И вот так вот у них всё. Решил проконсультироваться с ИИ.
why do people associate hostage release from Hamas with Trump?
claude.ai:
The association likely stems from Trump's involvement in prior international hostage negotiations during his presidency, including cases with North Korea, Iran, and Turkey. However, Trump has not been involved in any Hamas hostage negotiations. The current hostage releases are being negotiated through Qatar, Egypt and other international mediators.
These claims appear to conflate Trump's past diplomatic efforts with the current crisis that began after October 7th.
People associate the hostage release from Hamas with Trump because of a statement released by the White House during his presidency, claiming he secured the release of four Israeli hostages held by Hamas ¹. However, it's essential to note that the current hostage release is a recent development, with Hamas handing over a list showing 25 Israeli hostages are still alive, and Israel delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners after a chaotic hostage handover ² ³. The association with Trump might be due to his administration's involvement in past negotiations or statements, but the current situation is a separate incident.
There are a few reasons why some people might associate hostage releases from Hamas with Trump:
Trump's focus on hostage releases: During his presidency, Trump and his administration made a significant effort to secure the release of American hostages held abroad. They publicly advocated for their release and engaged in diplomatic efforts to negotiate with various groups, including Hamas. This high-profile focus may have led some to believe that Trump was particularly involved in hostage negotiations with Hamas.
Timing of releases: Some hostage releases occurred during Trump's presidency, which might lead people to associate them with him. However, it's important to note that negotiations for hostage releases often take place over long periods and involve multiple parties, including intelligence agencies, diplomats, and intermediaries. The timing of a release doesn't necessarily indicate direct involvement by a specific president.
Political narratives: Some political actors or commentators might try to link hostage releases to Trump to either praise or criticize his foreign policy approach. This can contribute to the association between Trump and Hamas hostage releases, even if the connection is not entirely accurate.
It's important to remember that hostage negotiations are complex and sensitive processes. While presidents can play a role in advocating for the release of hostages, the actual negotiations and outcomes often depend on various factors and the involvement of multiple actors.
