Stablecoins (SCs). The Bad. Part 2. Part 1.
The other not-so-obvious, but essential piece of the puzzle is the networks over which SCs are exchanged. The blockchains. If SCs are analogous to banknotes, then networks are mimicking systems like SWIFT, except they're not centrally operated and owned. No one is responsible. Ethereum, Tron, and Solana, just to name a few. Although, to be more technical, it's a blockchain with a particular standard. For example, Ethereum (ERC-20) refers to a widely used technical standard for creating fungible tokens, which are interchangeable on the Ethereum blockchain. This implies the possibility of other standards in the future. Each network poses unique rules, fees, processing speeds, and risks. If you send tokens and they don't arrive, good luck squaring that circle.
Legacy payment systems can reverse transactions, handle fraud, and generally provide safety guardrails. SCs are just tokens without these capabilities. Of course, a company may utilize the SC ecosystem and provide these features. Visa and Mastercard have already announced plans for their respective SCs. Welcome to market fragmentation in the making.
Despite what the bulls are saying, I see SCs remain as toys in the U.S.
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
Stablecoins (SCs). The Good. Part 1.
The crypto tokens whose value is pegged to $1 and backed by real assets. Algorithmic ones were proven to be a joke, so I'll pretend they don't exist.
The utility for SCs in the U.S. and developed economies is muted. Many consumers use credit cards, which essentially provide a 1-2% discount on purchases. A well-developed and generally trusted banking system with a relatively low inflation environment makes switching to alternative payment methods a tall order. The proliferation of Zelle and Venmo further cemented the dominance of incumbents. Using SCs for international transfers is cheap and fast; however, convertibility to USD is still expensive and subject to time delays. For transactions exceeding $5K, a wire transfer is more efficient.
The situation is drastically different internationally. Many jurisdictions are known for weak banking systems, high inflation, and distrust of local currencies. Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, etc. These are relatively sizeable countries with enormous growth potential for SC adoption in domestic and international payments. If that is to materialize, it'll have peculiar consequences.
There are two major SC issuers: Tether and Circle. Staying behind USDT and USDC, respectively. Structurally, both companies operate in the same paradigm. They create SCs into existence, sell them into the market, and use the proceeds to buy reserve assets. An issuer is managing for $1 peg to remain under any market conditions, thus providing a robust medium of exchange. For this service, an issuer collects interest from the money kept in reserves. For practical reasons, the vast majority of the reserves are in U.S. Treasuries. The most trusted and most liquid asset class worldwide. As of July 2025, the four largest USD SC issuers together hold approximately $182.4 billion in U.S. Treasury securities. This places them in 16th place amongst the top global holders of U.S. debt, between Norway and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the U.S. Treasuries market (total marketable securities outstanding) is approximately $28 trillion. The growth of the reserves over the past 5 years has been remarkable, underscoring the explosive nature of adoption.
Year | Estimated Reserves (Market Cap, USD bn) | Year-on-Year Growth (%)
2020 | 6 | —
2021 | 27 | +350%
2022 | 81 | +200%
2023 | 126 | +56%
2024 | 153 | +21%
2025 | 200-247 | +31% (approx.)
As the global market needs more and more SCs, the demand for Treasuries will continue to grow. This is a simple mathematical relationship. Those salivating over the demise of the USD as global reserve currency are now at risk of developing a gastric ulcer. To get more nuanced, it's mostly a demand for short-dated securities. They're more liquid than longer-dated ones and are less sensitive to interest rate risk. This means a higher demand for T-Bills relative to notes and bonds. Of course, the Treasury controls the issuance of debt across different maturities, but this is a new and growing factor that didn't exist a few years ago. Ceteris paribus, it could lead to higher long-term rates than otherwise would've been.
Part 2 👇
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
Очень веселая новость. Имитатор, опираясь на созданный AI голос Марко Рубио связывался с высокопоставленными сотрудниками в госдепе и иностранными дипломатами. Любопытно, как на этих международных каналах связи настроены механизмы аутентификации. А то ведь больших дров наломать можно.
#BraveNewWorld
FM: Он же мусульманин !
RH: И?
FM: Теперь он своих будет покрывать, и они вообще обнаглеют!
RH: Помнишь, когда Обама избрался, то же самое говорили про чёрных?
FM: Помню.
RH: И как с результатами?
FM: (выдерживает паузу), сейчас скидка на ту сумочку, что я тебе показывала...
Fear Monger and Rational Head in every household near you.
#twotypesofpeople
Чего я опасаюсь, так этого того что Трамп сделает глупость лишь бы опровергнуть TACO.
Недавно, на пресс-конференции журналистка спросила его об этом и он взбесился.
Срочно нужно новое сокращение. Не надо дразнить нарцисса.
#AmericanImperialism
Игорь, есть отличные инструменты монетизировать прогнозы. Кроме очевидных плюсов, это позволит объективно отслеживать личную результативность.
Ещё несколько дней назад я предполагал, что активное вмешательство США в конфликт с Ираном маловероятно. Но ситуация изменилась, и шансы существенно увеличились. Верховный главнокомандующий утвердил план атаки.
На данный момент вероятность на polymarket оценивается в 61%). Три дня назад на уровне 30-35%. Финансовые рынки в США закрыты из-за праздника, ликвидность слабая. Фьючи на SP500 просели на 50 пунктов. Это ерунда. Фьючи на нефть поднялись менее чем на 2%. Открытая вчера позиция на откат нефти пока что в красном цвете.
Но приказ еще не отдан. В ближайшие дни прояснится если TACO тренд всё еще в силе.
#AmericanImperialism
Пожалуй, самым бесчеловечным, самым уничижительным с чем сталкивался Хомо Советикус на практике была модель “ведра с крабами”. Этот опыт многие получали еще в школе и никогда уже не могли избавиться, множа и передавая его другим на жизненном пути. Калеча психику, а порой, и жизни. Мораль и политическое устройство общества сверху до низу была пронизана этой конструкцией, которая в 1950ых была на пике.
Именно об этом времени мини сериал “Красная королева”. История золушки, прошедшая все пути ада ведра с крабами. Блеск, нищета и убогость советской эстетики того периода переданы с научной точностью. До мелочей. Быт, идеалогия, исторические события и культура. Любовь и предательство. Пропасть между низами и творческой богемой.
Сюжет основан на реальной личности, но собственное восприятие шло через призму исторического контекста и сопутствующих нюансов. Фильм не самый свежий. Был отрекомендован как “женский”, что на мой взгляд does not do justice. Есть на Amazon Prime.
На Бали уникальная ирригационная система, датируемая 9м веком. Называется Субак (Subak). Это не просто многочисленные каналы берущие начало от горных озёр, питая рисовые поля и людей по всему острову. Это ещё и кооперативное управление распределением воды, что позволяло увеличивать урожайность и равномерно распределять жизненно важный ресурс, вне зависимости от высоты проживания.
Видео демонстрирует простоту и элегантность инженерной мысли. Когда рисовая терраса более не нуждается в воде, фермер перекрывает ответвление мини дамбой из земли или глины, оставляя магистральный канал открытым.
Но уже скоро это канет в лету. Рисовые террасы застраиваются виллами. Традиционная культура и экономика вытесняется (уже) туризмом, что в конечном итоге добьет первоначальный смысл посещения острова.
#travel
May 2025
Вообще Бали это конечно помойка. Ужасные пробки. Мусор. Толпы туристов слоняющихся безо всякого смысла по узеньким улочкам, окутанным нескончаемой паутиной нависающих проводов. Местные на мопедах снуют как муравьи. Беднота. Цены уже давно не те, что были ещё 6 лет назад. А ля туристические достопримечательности это пшик. Инста локации это особый вид садизма. Псевдо-окрыленных разводят на большие деньги продавцы духовных услуг. Многие пляжи - кошмар. В сезон ветров с Индийского океана кошмар в кубе. Горы пластика в воде.
Да, красивые храмы в уникальном стиле. Все ещё очень дешёвый массаж и спа услуги. Да, рисовые террасы на холмах Убуда достойное зрелище. В идиллии этих ландшафтов ещё можно провести несколько деньков отмываясь от глубоких погружений в красочную Индонезийскую природу. Главное не спускаться вниз, в уличный бедлам.
Причин лететь сюда из Северной Америки не вижу.
#travel
May 2025
Why you should stick with the simplest insurance products, aka Term Life. Case in point: Acceleration of Death Benefit Policy from MetLife.
An acceleration of death benefit (also called an accelerated death benefit or living benefit) is a feature often included in or added to life insurance policies. It allows the policyholder to receive a portion of their policy’s death benefit in advance if they are diagnosed with a terminal illness or, in some cases, a severe chronic condition.
Stablecoins (SCs). The Bad. Part 1. You can read about the good parts here.
There are two main classes of issues with SCs. Economic and operational. Let's evaluate those through the lens of a U.S.-based user. These arguments won't equally apply in high-inflation, weak banking sector jurisdictions. That's why SCs' adoption will probably grow there.
In the U.S., we have money market funds. Investment vehicles with super safe assets, structured to deliver $1 NAV share price. Post GFC, they're de facto backstopped by the FED. The current yield is 4-4.5%. Moving cash in and out takes a few clicks. Many such funds operate under the covers of regular checking accounts. Why would anyone give up that yield to hold liquidity in SCs for free? The way to abstractly think about any SC is a 0% money market account.
The second economic issue is fragmentation. The issuance of SCs is identical to the banking landscape in the U.S. before the establishment of the Federal Reserve. Banks circulated their banknotes, backed by gold, with various rates of adoptability and discounting across the country. This created all sorts of problems and was a net negative for the economy. SCs are the digital equivalent of banknotes from the 19th century. Each announcement of yet another SC further increments this problem. Monetary fragmentation reduces the value of exchange between producers and consumers, while benefiting the rent-seeking middleman. It has a reverse networking effect. The introduction of the common European currency was a recent example of successfully eliminating this problem.
Moving on. Operationally, the single most important risk is counterparty risk. There is a for-profit entity behind each SC. What happens if such an enterprise goes bust? We don't know, but it's not hard to imagine. Remember the FTX fiasco? This is where further details matter. Namely, where an issuer is domiciled. The legal environment, bankruptcy laws, and other regulations applicable in that jurisdiction.
Tether—the issuer of the USDT is registered in the British Virgin Islands. For a long time, it didn't even bother to present audited financial statements. It eventually did so, but the report wasn't even worth the paper it was printed on. Circle Internet Group, Inc. (commonly known as Circle), an issuer behind USDC, is registered and headquartered in New York City. It recently went public and trades under the ticker CRCL. As a U.S.-based public company, it is subject to much stricter regulatory requirements. Its financial statements adhere to U.S. standards and are audited by a Big Four accounting firm. Its assets are with a custodian. Without a doubt, the level of trustworthiness is significantly higher vis-à-vis Tether. Yet, Circle is not a bank. It doesn't have access to the FED, and cannot tap its facilities in the case of a crisis. A bank could step in to bridge that gap in the case of a liquidity situation. No one will come to the rescue if there is fraud.
Additionally, SC issuers, just like banks, carry interest rate and duration risks. A volatile up move in interest rates (price of securities goes down) may expose inadequate reserves backing. If an issuer mismanages the duration of the reserves by overweighting longer-dated securities, it opens itself up to potential undercapitalization. Under extreme market conditions, these things could come to a head and trigger a run. That's how SVB failed in March 2023.
Part 2 👇🏻
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
Stablecoins (SCs). The Good. Part 2. Part 1.
The secondary consequence is a hollowing out of local currencies and debt instruments in favor of U.S.-based counterparts. Reducing the powers of central banks and finance departments. All sorts of middlemen in the remittance and international P2P space will see their margins shrink or be eliminated. On one hand, governments will observe erosion in the tax receipts due to higher difficulty in policing the global stablecoin ecosystem and will try to curtail its use. On the other hand, the legacy payment system punishes businesses with high costs for international transactions. This is a net transfer from growth-oriented export-driven enterprises to a rent-seeking banking sector. Economies with a lack of growth opportunities are fertile ground for revolutions. Governments would have to find the right balance. A material reduction in transaction costs will leave more money in the hands of the remittance receivers. This should further help local economies. In 2025, people worldwide are projected to send around $913 billion as remittances, marking a new record for global remittance flows.
Thirdly, incumbents will be forced to adopt and incorporate SCs in their offerings. This has the potential to lower transaction costs in developed markets. When this occurs, the result is always more transactions. Speed is another factor where SCs saw a major improvement. We're talking 1-2 seconds delay. How many business ideas were deemed uneconomical given high credit card fees? Imagine selling something for a few cents with almost zero cost and coins hitting your valet instantaneously.
Of course, there are risks, and the ecosystem hasn't been battle-tested yet. This will require another post.
Despite the decentralized technology, the growing adoption of SCs will result in more globalization under the U.S financial umbrella, further cementing its hegemony.
#BraveNewWorld #finance
July 2025
The number of USD millionaires rose 1.2% in 2024, an increase of more than 684,000 people compared to the previous year, with the US adding over 379,000 new millionaires. That’s more than 1,000 a day.
Типовая манипуляции из мира финансов на примере отдельно взятой публикации.
Автор демонстрирует результаты различных фондовых рынков с начала года и делает вывод -
США же при Трампе теперь переходят в разряд мировых неудачников
After Trump announced the "Liberation Day" tariffs, there was a global stock market crash. Within two days S&P 500 lost 10%. On April 3, it shed almost 5%, which was the 5th largest single-day percentage decline since 1950.
Following Israel's attack on Iran, S&P futures are not even 100 pts down at midnight Eastern time. 1.6% drop, on average, occurs 10-12 times per year. Markets appear sanguine about this event.
Meh.
#finance
Ося Бендер знал 200 рецептов самогона. И хоть данный напиток уже не в моде среди почитателей ЗОЖ, они явно деградировали в вопросах ассортимента. Достаточно пары ключевых слов чтоб рефлекс Павлова сработал.
#travel
Немного о ценах на Бали. Горячий кофе американо 30к. 90 минут массажа 300к.
USD/IDR = 16250.
Продаём кофе. Покупаем массаж.
#travel
