Метания об стену продолжаются. Стена держится. Кто-то следит за счётом?
#AmericanDynamism #politics
Бей своих чтоб чужие боялись.
Бесстрашный воин играет с огнём.
#economics #AmericanImperialism
I frequently stress the importance of seen vs. unseen analysis. People routinely skip the latter and fall for the survivorship bias fallacy. To be fair, it is more challenging to obtain data on what is amiss.
When medical systems from various countries are compared, the one we have in the U.S. is frequently criticized. I'm not trying to dive into the deep rabbit hole of comparative analysis but to make a single point, demonstrating the importance of what is not seen.
Since 2018, Over 75,000 Canadians Died Waiting for Health Care
On average, more than 100 undersea cables are cut or damaged each year.
#factoftheday
The dollar is not backed by anything. They told us. Then they minted all the stablecoins backed by the dollar. Approximately 99% of them. Then they lured in the believers by giving them tokens symbolizing belonging to a new religion and took their "worthless" dollars. Promptly investing the latter into treasuries, yielding more "worthless" dollars, for cardinals to keep. Some people need to re-read The Adventures of Pinocchio.
The most prominent church casino company milking suckers is Tether Holdings Limited. It is behind Tether (USDT) — the 4th largest cryptocurrency by market cap. For a while, its financial claims remained unaudited and many were skeptical. Recently the company released an audited report from a secondary tier firm.
In reality, it's a fig leaf designed to cover a nominal checkbox. For a seasoned investor accustomed to the regulations of US financial markets, this report isn't worth the paper it was printed on.
- It's not in standard form, where different periods are compared.
- Custodians of assets are not specified.
- Of the $63B invested in treasuries we're only told that the average maturity is less than 83 days. Is it nominal or weighted? We don't know. How much is in longer duration is anyone's guess. Remember SVB bank went under because it mismanaged the duration risk.
- $9.4B in reverse repos with counterparties rated A-2.
But hey, assets exceed liabilities by $5.5B, what else do believers need to know? I suppose it'll do for an off-shore firm catering to international HODLers.
Ironically, Paolo Ardoino, the CEO of Tether, stated why his company isn't audited by any of Big Four accounting firms.
In an interview with DL News, he said the Big Four accounting firms — Deloitte, PwC, EY, and KPMG — are afraid to work with Tether because they fear it will damage their reputations.
“None of the Big Four companies will audit us,” Ardoino said.
Проблема общих и статичных утверждений, игнорирующих маржинальные изменения на конкретном примере.
Часто можно услышать о проблеме американского гос. долга, как о надвигающемся экзистенциональном кризисе. В следствие чего процентные ставки улетят в космос и всё будет очень грустно. Кроме общей критики, несостоятельность данного аргумента можно обосновать с маржинальных позиций.
График отображает доходность 10-ти летних treasuries. 15-го сентября 2024 был установлен уровень в 3.6%. На данный момент около 4.6%. Это сто базовых пунктов менее чем за полгода или прыжок на 28%. Исторически, годовая волатильность treasuries около 20%. Данный скачок составляет приблизительно 2.3 standard deviations (среднеквадратическое отклонение), т.е. очень редкое явление, лежащее за рамками 99% случаев.
Казалось бы, а при чём тут гос. долг США? А при том, что за указанный период он вырос всего на 4%. Крайне малозначительное изменение.
Получается какие-то другие факторы двинули рынок treasuries, и очень сильно, пока гос. долг каким был таким и остался. Следовательно общий аргумент о размере долга не объясняет изменений с процентными ставками. Он недостаточно гибкий, не учитывает изменений конъюнктуры. Им можно пренебречь.
#finance
The most important function of an open market is the price signals it generates. These signals, in theory, adjust the future behavior of participants, ensuring optimal use of scarce resources. For example, if the price of fire insurance increases, a possible outcome is the construction of fireproof homes using new technologies or fewer constructions in fire-prone areas.
What happens when the government intervenes in the market and dictates prices? If prices are lower than would've been otherwise, shortages of goods and services will take place. The Soviet Union in the past and Cuba today are great examples of that. Wasteful oversupply occurs when a dictated price is higher.
A democracy operates under vox populi principle. Thus the government is a collective will of voters. Since voters are humans they exhibit human-like behavior. That is to get things for less and ensure bargains into the future.
In states like California and Florida, an insurance commissioner, who is elected, prohibits insurance companies from pricing risks based on future expectations of natural disasters. Premiums were allowed to go higher so long as actuarial models were supported by past events only. Since natural disasters occur more frequently, looking into a rearview mirror to calculate premiums will ensure prompt bankruptcies of insurance companies. Since the government cannot force the rendering of services from private actors, the industry reacted with a very rational decision and mostly left these states. Acquiring fire insurance in parts of LA became problematic. The number of homes without one jumped. Coverages have gotten thinner from a remaining state-funded company. That was the backdrop before the recent devastating fires.
For more nuanced coverage take a listen at Patrick Boyle's video.
#economics #ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
January 2025
Because
a picture is worth a thousand words
Почти всегда обыватель ссылается на баланс ФРС в контексте “напечатали денег”. Это удобно и просто поддерживает любой дальнейший тезис, отталкивающийся от данного утверждения. С очень большими натяжками и cherry-picking фактов это можно допустить. Нюансы крайне сложной зависимости (иногда она нулевая) между балансом ФРС и денежной массой (М2) всегда игнорируются. Различия между резервами и деньгами тоже. Но это видимая часть.
Куда сложнее понять, и тем более оценить то, чего не видно. Именно в эту категорию входит создание денег банковским сектором через механизм частичного банковского резервирования. Казалось бы, такой простой концепт как взятие кредита любым экономическим актором и есть создание новых денег, остаётся какой-то черной магией, и упускается из вида. Хотя именно этот механизм в разы превосходит ФРС по своей эффективности и результатам.
Первый график отражает баланс ФРС. Второй – денежную массу М2. В каких-то отрезках времени можно заметить корреляцию. В целом денежная масса стабильно увеличивается, соответствуя росту экономики. Важно понимать разницу в масштабе. Пик баланса ФРС пришелся на весну 2022 и составил почти $9T. На начало 2025 уже ниже $7T. М2 на отметке $21.5Т. В три раза больше. А ведь еще есть офшорный рынок доллара.
Растущая экономика и есть “печатный станок” денег. Главное помнить разницу между ними (номинальное измерение) и благосостоянием (реальное измерение).
#finance #economics
Marc Andreessen, a legendary investor, was the first to call DeepSeek revelations a
Sputnik moment
Believer: You can tell me all you want about Trump but hostages are coming out, not all but still, and for that я буду за него топить, no matter what. This piece was supplied in support.
Skeptic: The article you referenced has no mention of him. So this begs a question how exactly do you link him to hostage release?
Believer: Bro pls lol.
И вот так вот у них всё. Решил проконсультироваться с ИИ.
why do people associate hostage release from Hamas with Trump?
claude.ai:
The association likely stems from Trump's involvement in prior international hostage negotiations during his presidency, including cases with North Korea, Iran, and Turkey. However, Trump has not been involved in any Hamas hostage negotiations. The current hostage releases are being negotiated through Qatar, Egypt and other international mediators.
These claims appear to conflate Trump's past diplomatic efforts with the current crisis that began after October 7th.
People associate the hostage release from Hamas with Trump because of a statement released by the White House during his presidency, claiming he secured the release of four Israeli hostages held by Hamas ¹. However, it's essential to note that the current hostage release is a recent development, with Hamas handing over a list showing 25 Israeli hostages are still alive, and Israel delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners after a chaotic hostage handover ² ³. The association with Trump might be due to his administration's involvement in past negotiations or statements, but the current situation is a separate incident.
There are a few reasons why some people might associate hostage releases from Hamas with Trump:
Trump's focus on hostage releases: During his presidency, Trump and his administration made a significant effort to secure the release of American hostages held abroad. They publicly advocated for their release and engaged in diplomatic efforts to negotiate with various groups, including Hamas. This high-profile focus may have led some to believe that Trump was particularly involved in hostage negotiations with Hamas.
Timing of releases: Some hostage releases occurred during Trump's presidency, which might lead people to associate them with him. However, it's important to note that negotiations for hostage releases often take place over long periods and involve multiple parties, including intelligence agencies, diplomats, and intermediaries. The timing of a release doesn't necessarily indicate direct involvement by a specific president.
Political narratives: Some political actors or commentators might try to link hostage releases to Trump to either praise or criticize his foreign policy approach. This can contribute to the association between Trump and Hamas hostage releases, even if the connection is not entirely accurate.
It's important to remember that hostage negotiations are complex and sensitive processes. While presidents can play a role in advocating for the release of hostages, the actual negotiations and outcomes often depend on various factors and the involvement of multiple actors.
For a long time, gold bugs were referencing the above image. In the last decade, they were joined by crypto evangelists. The presented loss of purchasing power is a foundational narrative to recommend alternative stores of value. Despite being factually correct, it misses a boat in what really matters. It's a manipulation by omission.
In an economy, labor sells its skills for money, to trade them for all the things it needs and wants. The money is an abstraction. Goods and services we buy are not. Our well-being, and our standards of living, in a materialistic sense, depend not on how many dollars it takes to buy X, but on how many hours of labor it takes to buy X. Dollars are just an exchange medium.
Additionally, these images don't show the variety of goods and services created over time. We have improvements in medicine, computers, the internet, better housing, airplanes, the list goes on and on. The average folk can buy more today than in the past with fewer hours of labor. Most of these things didn't even exist back then.
That's the true measure of progress and standards of living. Don't be fooled! Don't confuse money and wealth.
#economics #AmericanDynamism
Не прошло и трех дней. Система сдержек и противовесом в действии. Выставил себя клоуном.
#politics
Делать громкие заявления для улучшения переговорной позиции наверно можно. Но играть в такие игры лучше при сильных картах. Стратегия постоянного блефа, рано или поздно будет проверена, и если окажется что в руке разномастные 2 и 7, то все игроки поймут с кем имеют дело.
Трамп громко заявлял о возможном введении 25% тарифов в отношении Канады и Мексики. А вот ответ из Канады похоже не имел такого широкого освещения в медиа. Хотя он был прекрасен.
Doug Ford, премьер провинции Онтарио, самой большой в Канаде, заявил о контр мерах в форме отключения электричества для США. Это зацепит штаты Мичиган, Висконсин и Нью-Йорк. Наверно не только их.
CNN ссылаясь на US Energy Information Administration сообщает, что США в 2023 импортировали 38.9 миллионов мегаватт часов электричества из которых на Канаду пришлось 33.2 миллиона. Это на 30% меньше, чем годом ранее и представляет менее 1% от общегодового потребления США. Тем не менее это среднее по палате. Северные штаты более зависимы от импорта электричества.
Вопрос как быстро Трамп растеряет авторитет остается открытым.
#ЖадностьПорождаетБедность
It so happens that media in general, and financial, in particular, is biased toward negativity. Progress is slow, and efficiency gains are in the shadows, but alarmism attracts viewers and sells ads. It's easy to take a position on the market, bullish or bearish, and dig up supporting evidence. In the industry, it's called "talking your book". It's an intersection between wishful thinking and confirmation bias. Yet, every time one gets a conviction it's worth remembering that markets are what they are because of a wide range of opinions — often opposed ones.
The following are succinct points for each side.
Bearish:
- Stubborn inflation. High and rising rates will eventually break something.
- Monetary tightening by the FED.
- Elevated valuations. P/E, CAPE, or anything else.
- Extreme concentration of leadership in the market.
- High and rising public debt. Interest payments exceeded the DOD budget.
- Strong dollar (DXY).
- Insurance liabilities for LA fires.
- Office real estate woes on balance sheets of regional banks.
- Higher mortgage rates reduce discretionary spending for new buyers by a sizeable amount. Big increases in home insurance.
- Risk of sizeable deportations.
- David Rosenberg.
Bullish:
- American exceptionalism. A strong economy, low unemployment, and healthy job growth.
- Salary increases outpace inflation. Even more so for skilled workers at the top.
- High Normal interest rates.
- Continuation of high CAPEX spending, AI investments, factories, and data center construction.
- $2T of deficit spending.
- Expected deregulation from the new administration.
- Onshoring.
- 20% of mortgages are below 3%. 55% of mortgages are below 4%. 40% of homes carry no mortgage.
- Population growth
- Jim Bianco (neutral)
Pick your poison.
#finance
January 2025
First day on the job and DJT is down 12%. Symbolism is off the charts!
#factoftheday
"На испуг" https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OCVWaAM99TU
#history
Meanwhile, the contract tracking odds of Greenland acquisition by the end of 2025 is trading at 19 cents. Up from 11 cents a week ago.
#AmericanDynamism #factoftheday #twotypesofpeople
Нью-Джерси. Баня. Диалектика развернулась вокруг названий одесских улиц. Новых, незалежных, советских и "старых". На проверку оказалось, что "старые", это не совсем старые. Но старожилы страдали.
#BrightonBeach
