Replete Equities

09 Apr 2025 09:04

ALERT: KIND ATTENTION.

April 10 (Thursday): Mahavir Jayanti – INDIA'S stock Markets Closed - Except India all world markets will be open on Thursday

⬆️So in Indian stock markets Friday big gap up or gap down possible.⬇️

April 14 (Monday): Dr. Baba Saheb Jayanti – India's stock Markets Closed. Except India All world markets are open on Monday.

⬇️So on Tuesday in Indian stock markets big gap up or gap down possible.⬆️

Replete Equities

08 Apr 2025 10:14

Created Iron Butterfly Strategy in ICICBANK for April Expiry.

We will track and do some adjustments to make it no-loss strategy in the coming sessions.

You can join our premium channel to get these updates and adjustments: repleteequities.com/pos

Replete Equities

08 Apr 2025 05:36

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

07 Apr 2025 05:41

Market is expected to open big gap down with circuit breaker.

Suggest to keep intraday and delivery positions lite.

Replete Equities

07 Apr 2025 05:41

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 2

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 9

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 7

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 21

Replete Equities

07 Apr 2025 05:39

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

04 Apr 2025 10:11

Index View -Turning Point: Falling US Yields - Signal A Market Reversal !

Nifty : 22950
US10Y : 4.00%

In the ever-evolving world of financial markets, relationship between equity indices and bond yields plays a crucial role in shaping investment decisions. One such dynamic correlation exists between Nifty and US10Y.

Historically, movements in US bond yields have influenced global equity markets, including India. A rise in yields often signals higher borrowing costs and a shift towards safer assets, potentially pressuring stock prices. Conversely, declining yields can indicate easing monetary conditions, making equities more attractive.

_In this analysis, we explore how fluctuations in US bond yields impact Nifty 50 and its correlation. The chart shows Nifty 50 at the top and US 10-Year Treasury Yield at the bottom._

Inverse Correlation:

When US10Y yield drops significantly (e.g., recent breakdown below support), Nifty 50 tends to rise (forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a bullish structure).

When US10Y yield was rising (mid-2023), Nifty faced resistance and showed consolidation.

Interpretation:

A fall in bond yields (US10Y) indicates easing monetary conditions, which has historically been bullish for EM equities like Nifty 50.

A rise in yields often means higher borrowing costs and lower equity valuations, leading to bearish pressure on Nifty.

Conclusion

A bearish breakdown on US10Y Yields and a bullish formation on Nifty 50, (yet to breakout) sets a stage for a fresh low risk high reward strategy. A strong support exists between 22800 - 23000 given that Nifty's 50% retracement of its recent 1900 point rally is seen at 22900. Index is also at a strong retest of its 6 month trendline breakout seen in March.

Actionable

Nifty at current juncture on charts is at an attractive risk to reward. This is set to be a good opportunity to deploy any index based longs here for a strong 1800 - 2200 point upside on Nifty 50.

Replete Equities

04 Apr 2025 05:57

Dollar Index Drops Over 2%, Historical Trends Signal Further Weakness

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell over 2% in a single day, one of its sharpest declines in two years, amid recession fears and concerns over Trump-era tariffs.

Historically, such drops have led to further declines, with five of the last six similar instances seeing an additional 8-10% fall.

With the Fed expected to cut rates later this year, dollar weakness may accelerate, reducing its appeal and boosting emerging markets. Currently around 101, the index could drop below 95, easing financial conditions and attracting capital inflows for emerging markets.

Replete Equities

03 Apr 2025 12:11

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

03 Apr 2025 12:11

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

03 Apr 2025 05:51

Tariff Impact

Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on India and Global Equity Markets

India

The 26% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S. targets key sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and steel, potentially reducing India’s trade surplus and impacting its export-driven industries. This could lead to slower economic growth and increased inflation domestically.

Global Equity Markets:

U.S. Markets

S&P 500 futures fell by 3.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped over 4.3%, and Dow Jones futures plunged by 1,000 points. Major companies like Apple, Walmart, and Nike saw substantial losses in after-hours trading.

Asian Markets

Japan’s Nikkei declined by 2.9%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.9%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 1.8%. These declines reflect fears of disrupted global supply chains.

European Markets
EU faces a 20% tariff, which could dampen its industrial exports and economic growth, further unsettling European equity markets.

Gift Nifty
Trading near 23100 (-300 point down )

Replete Equities

28 Mar 2025 07:42

🚀 FY25 Trading Edge! 🇮🇳

Replete Community, get ready to enhance your trading! We're offering a special 50% OFF all Replete Premium plans to help you pursue consistent growth this new financial year.

What's inside?
✅ Strategies designed for consistent growth potential.
✅ Stress-Free Trading: Real-time adjustments!
✅ Data-Driven Strategies: No guesswork!
✅ Limited-Risk Trades: Protect your capital.
✅ Weekly/Monthly Positional Strategies.
✅ Live-Market Guidance.

Join our Telegram community and trade smarter! Use code 𝗙𝗡𝟮𝟱 at checkout.

➡️ Subscribe Now: https://www.repleteequities.com/pos

#RepleteEquities #FY25Offer #OptionTrading #HedgingStrategies #StockMarketIndia #InvestmentTips #TelegramCommunity #FN25 #PositionalTrading #GrowthPotential

Replete Equities

27 Mar 2025 05:35

Intraday Trend looks Bullish in Nifty as we can see high PUT writing in the first hour.

Replete Equities

26 Mar 2025 04:34

_Morning Snippet:- 26th March 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty has rallied close to 1000 pts in the past 1 week and with yesterday’s price action wherein the index made a fresh 10 week high but closed below its previous day’s high, shows a pause in momentum. Though charts suggest a move towards 24000+ wherein it could retest it 200 DMA on the upside. However, even after such a sharp uptick in past days, support based on charts continue to remain below 23000.

A 9% rally on Bank Nifty in the past 2 weeks have made the index trade at a fresh 3 month high. Intermediate targets have been met at 51650 while overall target continue to show biasness towards 52500 zone. A case of retesting its 200 DMA remains open wherein the index could initially take support at sub 51000 levels before inching higher as Bank Nifty looks more stretched compared to Nifty. However, outperformance of the same is likely to continue against Nifty.

Interesting Observation

Yesterday, we highlighted how Indian small-cap stocks are poised to outperform their larger counterparts after a period of underperformance. Today, we will explore a similar scenario in the U.S. markets.

The Russell 2000 index, as observed on the weekly chart, is currently retesting a critical multi-resistance breakout. This level aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of a prior rally from the 2023 lows. Additionally, the 100% Fibonacci extension of the initial leg of the correction from the 2024 highs is also achieved.

While the S&P 500 index is trading 23% above its 2021 highs, the Russell 2000 is still trading below its previous peaks. However, the index is forming a strong base, supported by the confluence of several key technical levels mentioned above. This sets the stage for small-cap stocks to gain momentum and potentially catch up to the larger-cap stocks, much like the trend observed in Indian markets.

Taken together, the technical outlook for the Russell 2000, combined with yesterday’s analysis of the Indian market, strengthens the case for small-cap stocks.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 14.2
IVP : 79.2
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 15.7
IVP : 78.6
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: 5371.57 Crs.
DII Cash: -2768.87 Crs.

WTD
FII: 8427.7 Crs.
DII: -2670.54 Crs.

MTD
FII: -6,984 Crs.
DII: 28,117 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 5k long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 91k short contracts.

On the option front, 23500 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 24000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 17-04-2025
INFY: Financial Results/Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 5
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 3

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 2

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 6
New 52 Week Lows: 5

Replete Equities

25 Mar 2025 04:52

 Market Update: March 2025
 
Overview
 
As we step into the final stretch of March, the market has shown remarkable resilience. Our strategic calls have played out as anticipated, and we are pleased to share our insights and results.
 
Chart Watchers Insights
 
January 2025 - Bearish Outlook: Anticipated market correction.
 
Nifty 50 fell by 6.78% (Target of 21,400-22,000 achieved)
 
Midcap 100 fell by 14.68%
 
Smallcap 100 fell by 19.62%
 
March 2025 - Bullish Outlook: Calling the bottom for a market rebound.
 
Nifty 50 improved by 5.06%
 
Midcap 100 improved by 7.16%
 
Smallcap 100 improved by 6.03%
 
Sectoral Performance Highlights
 
Realty (Long): Fell by 13.55%
 
Paints (Short): Fell by 8.05% (155 pts captured)

IT (Short): Fell by 14.57% (6357 pts captured)
 
Metals (Long): Improved by 4.08%
 
Chemicals (Long): Improved by 5.4%
 
Actionable Insights & Key Trades
 
Feb 27: Anticipated volatility rise, recommended a 22,500 Straddle; realized a 52% gain.
 
Feb 28: Increased allocation in NDPMS and called the bottom in Midcaps & Small Caps.
 
March 3-7: High-risk reversal trade in Nifty Futures at 22,190 with a target of 22,550, achieved 500 points profit.
 
March 18: Breakout confirmed, revised Nifty target to 23,150, successfully booked profits.
 
March 24: Further upward target revisions to 24,100 for Nifty and 52,500 for Bank Nifty.
 
Media Engagements
 
We shared our insights through multiple media appearances, reinforcing our bullish outlook.
 
CNBC Bajar, TOI, ET, Live Mint
 
Topics covered: Market bottoms, short-covering rallies, Fibonacci support confirmations, and sectoral strengths.
 
The Road Ahead
 
We remain vigilant, monitoring macroeconomic trends and liquidity flows to adjust our strategies as needed. For detailed discussions or further insights, feel free to reach out.
 
Looking forward to the next phase of market opportunities!

Replete Equities

09 Apr 2025 09:03

Today intraday Trend in Nifty looks complete neutral.

Replete Equities

08 Apr 2025 05:37

_Morning Snippet:- 07th April 2025_

Index Observation

All through March 2025, we had highlighted the level of 22040 to be monitored on downside as the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level for its rally from March 2023 to Sept 2024. Nifty never gave a close below this level despite attempting multiple times. Even in yesterday’s panic sell off the index made a fresh 10 month low but defended 22040 on a closing basis as Nifty experienced a last hour short covering. No great clarity has emerged yesterday with regard to Trump’s fresh take on tariffs but he has signalled an openess to negotiations either few countries which the market is taking positively. A fresh 2% gap up opening is seen on cards today, as global peers have bounced back from extreme lows yesterday. We would continue to eye for 22800-22900 to be taken out for a sustained relief rally to turn out into a buy on dip rally.

On the Bank Nifty the index did not make a fresh swing low as it continued to outperform against Nifty and broader market. We hold by our view on 49900 - 50400 for the index as a good add longs level for the index to turn for 52500 in the short term. For today, any overnight trades are advised to be done with caution or protective hedged positions.

Interesting Observation

Yesterday, equity markets globally faced declines, and the Indian market was no exception, with the Nifty 50 closing lower by 3.24%. However, when examining sectoral performance, it becomes evident that some sectors demonstrated resilience compared to both their peers and the broader Nifty index.

The Nifty FMCG sector was the least affected, ending the day down by just 1.19%.
Additionally, on April 1, 2025, we had discussed the equal-weighted index of cement stocks. Despite the broader market downturn, this index exhibited strong resilience, closing only 2.42% lower as compared to benchmark indices closing more than 3% lower.
Other sectors that outperformed the Nifty 50 include IT, which fell by 2.51%, and PSE, which dropped by 2.53%. These sectors held up relatively better during the market's turbulence.

In volatile market conditions, it is crucial to focus on such sectors, which demonstrate their strength and stability during challenging times. Identifying such resilient sectors can provide valuable insights for more strategic investment decisions.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -9040.01 Crs.
DII Cash: 12122.45 Crs.

WTD
FII: -9040.01 Crs.
DII: 12122.45 Crs.

MTD
FII: -22770.5 Crs.
DII: 17755.01 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 21K short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 107K short contracts.

On the option front, 22000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 22700 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 21

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 41

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 68

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 130

Replete Equities

07 Apr 2025 06:37

We recommended Nifty 50 Twin Win, only for such market.

Remember 2025 is the year to protect your portfolio.

Learn more about Nifty 50 Twin Win here: https://www.repleteequities.com/nifty-50-twin-win-best-investment-2025/

Replete Equities

07 Apr 2025 05:41

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

07 Apr 2025 05:41

_Morning Snippet :- 07th April 2025

Index Observation

Nifty did hit the 50% retracement mark of the recent 1900 pt rally in Friday’s trade however post market closing China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S further escalated the trade war. Global market paniced pushing indices over 5% lower on this comeback on tariffs by China. Gift Nifty is signalling 3% to -4% lower opening in India, while broader markets could perform even worse given the price action Friday. The reversal pattern between 22900-23000 which we were highlighting all through last week, will be whipped in today’s gap down opening. This strong support of 22900-23000 could further act as a decider resistance in going northwards on Nifty once any respite from US markets are seen on tariffs later today. Waiting for a day out appears to be more practical approach while we shall initiate a fresh call during market hours to play out this volatility.

Despite pressure across indices, Bank Nifty stood out as an outperformer holding flat for the session on Friday. However, with a wide gap down opening expected today, the index could well come back to a strong support between 49900-50400. Holding and any sign of reversal between this range is likely to allow a fresh swing high on Bank Nifty. Even here, waiting for the 1st hour today - having the market to digest its post market announcements is advised.

Global futures are extremely nervous this morning, will all the indices having missed to price in China’s retaliatory tariffs on Friday, are experiencing higher pressure while US futures are experiencing partial recovery to today’s morning gap down opening. The greed and fear index for US markets is indicating a readin of 4/100 signalling a scenario of extreme fear and oversold territory of the market. All momentum indicators are oversold for the Dow, SPX and NSDQ. The 5-day average put call ratio is at 1 year high, along with CBOE VIX. Any positive comments from Trump, or even a delay in implementation of tariffs are likely to set stage for a huge bounce on US markets, cascading it to global peers as well, however markets would wait for any step taken.

Interesting Observation

Do High VIX Rallies Mark Market Bottoms?

A historical analysis of S&P 500 one-day rallies following VIX spikes above 45, compared with Nifty 50 behavior, reveals some telling patterns.

⸻

Key Metrics Analyzed:
• S&P 500 1-Day Return post VIX spike
• Days to Final Bottom for both indices
• Further Fall before bottoming out

⸻

Key Observations:

1. VIX > 45 + Big Bounce ≠ Final Bottom (Usually)
In 5 out of 6 cases, the S&P 500 continued to decline after the initial rally.
Only on 03-Oct-2011, the bounce marked the actual bottom (0% further fall).

2. Nifty Follows – With One Notable Divergence
Nifty also declined post-bounce in most cases.
However, on 20-May-2010, while the S&P 500 fell 7% over 29 days, the Nifty dropped just 3% and bottomed in 3 days.

3. High VIX = Volatility Trap
Sharp rallies during high-VIX periods are typically short-lived, except in October 2011, when the bottom held.

⸻

Takeaway:

“A big bounce on a high VIX day might feel like the end, but it’s usually just the eye of the storm.”

High volatility often coincides with major turning points, but a single-day rally rarely signals the final bottom.
While Nifty has been resilient so far—with India VIX staying relatively calm—

Will it continue to outperform, or eventually mirror global volatility? Will be key to watch.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -3483 Crs.
DII Cash: -1720 Crs.

WTD
FII: -13,730 Crs.
DII: 5632 Crs.

MTD
FII: -13730 Crs.
DII: 5632 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 13k short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 86k short contracts.

On the option front, 22000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

Replete Equities

06 Apr 2025 08:54

Last 3 weeks are very tough for our intraday basket. Stolploss are hiting most of the time. High volatility and low premiums are making it hard to generate return.

So whenever I face such situation, I prefer to go and do all the market analysis manually.

This time also, I dig deeper to find a salutation to such situation.

Luckily I manage to create a better stable basket for Intraday especially in Nifty.

I have shared my findings on my blog. Do check it out now.

link: https://www.repleteequities.com/best-option-buying-selling-basket-nifty/

#nifty #StockMarkets #OptionsTrading #Nifty50

Replete Equities

04 Apr 2025 05:58

_Morning Snippet:- 04 April 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty continued to hold its neck above the 38.2% retracement mark for the 3rd consecutive day despite a mayhem in global markets yesterday. Likewise, given the price action on the index, Nifty is likely to slip towards its 50% retracement once it breaks this support holding at 23135. Strong support emerges between 22900-23000 while on daily charts a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern is under formation. Overall reversal targets remain open in excess of 24000+ by the end of this month.

Bank Nifty continuing its outperformance ended in green on a day wherein its global peers experienced deep cuts. The index continued to trade around its 200 DMA forming an engulfing bullish pattern. Yesterday was only an initial reaction to the freshly served tariffs by U.S, a more matured one is likely to unfold in the next 2-3 trading days. Overall we reiterate out view shared earlier. dips between 49900 - 50400 are likely to get bought into for a strong support and a reversal move towards 52500 odd.

Interesting Observation

The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by a handful of stocks, primarily in the technology and AI sectors. The top 10–15 stocks have contributed disproportionately to the index’s gains, leading to concerns over market breadth. Meanwhile, as discussed previously, the Russell 2000 which tracks the smallest 2000 stocks remains below its 2021 highs, highlighting the uneven distribution of gains.

However, there are signs that this narrow concentration may be starting to shift. A key measure of market breadth—the ratio of the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index to the S&P 500 Market-Cap Weighted Index—has shown improvement. This ratio had recently fallen toward levels last seen in 2008, reflecting the extreme dominance of large-cap stocks. A potential reversal in this trend suggests that market participation may be broadening.

Further improvement in market breadth could provide greater stability to the S&P 500 index as a rally driven by a wider set of stocks tends to be more sustainable, ultimately boosting investor confidence.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -2806 Crs.
DII Cash: 221 Crs.

WTD
FII: -10246 Crs.
DII: 7352 Crs.

MTD
FII: -10246 Crs.
DII: 7352 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 11k short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 73k short contracts.

On the option front, 23000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 24000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 2

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 3

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 1

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 6

Replete Equities

03 Apr 2025 12:12

Strong Delivery Volume in Chemical and Cement space

When comparing the 5-day and 15-day average delivery volumes of stocks in the cement and chemical sectors, the stocks mentioned above stand out as strong delivery performers. Their 5 and 15-day average delivery volumes surpass the 6-month average, reinforcing the insights of our previous analysis on chemical and cement stocks. This study further supports the resilience of these stocks in the current market environment.

Replete Equities

03 Apr 2025 12:11

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

03 Apr 2025 05:52

_Morning Snippet:- 03rd April 2025_

Index Observation

With global markets tradijg 2-4% lower after U.S’s liberation day tariff announcement, Nifty is likely to open below its 38.2% retracement level which it was holding for the past 2 trading days. Likewise highlighted earlier - given the price action on Tuesday, Nifty is ready to test its 50% retracement level of the current rally which reads at 22900 odd. A strong support zone emerges in charts between 22900-23000 while on daily charts, a potential bullish head and shoulder pattern is also under formation. Overall targets remain open for 24000+ by the end of this month.

Bank Nifty has faced profit taking after completing its 51650 target and the index has been hanging around its 200 DMA this week. We reiterate our view shared earlier in the index, dips between 49900 - 50400 are likely to get bought into for a strong up move towards 52500 with support seen at 49900.

Interesting Observation

Shipping stocks have recently shown strong potential, with the industry’s performance closely tied to broader supply and demand trends. To better understand the movement of these stocks, we have created an equal-weighted index that tracks the performance of key shipping companies. Historically, this index has experienced average drawdowns of around 20%, but it has recently reached historical drawdown levels that have only been seen once before. Furthermore, this index has risen over the past month from these historical drawdown levels, reinforcing its potential for sustained growth as it recovers.

A key factor influencing this recovery is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks the cost of shipping bulk dry goods and serves as a leading economic indicator. The BDI has risen by 29% over the past month and 54% over the past three months, signalling improving conditions in global supply and demand. Since the shipping stocks index has historically followed the BDI’s lead, this increase hints at potential continued growth for the sector.

Given the current trends, there is growing optimism that shipping stocks can continue to perform well, driven by a favourable supply-demand outlook reflected in the BDI.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -1538 Crs.
DII Cash: 2808 Crs.

WTD
FII: -7439.1 Crs.
DII: 7130.7 Crs.

MTD
FII: -7439.1 Crs.
DII: 7130.7 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were neutral in the previous session. They have added 4k long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 62k short contracts.

On the option front, 23000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 24000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 6

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 5

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 12

Replete Equities

02 Apr 2025 05:31

_Morning Snippet:- 02nd April 2025_

Index Observation

Having rallied nearly 1900 points from its 9 month low in March, Nifty has now retraced 38.2% of this move on Fibonacci retracement scale. Given the price action on Nifty yesterday, it could well retrace 50% of this whole 1900 point rally on account of jitters on the tariff news. The index continues to hold above the 6 month trendline breakout seen on weekly charts and this pullback is just a retesting of the same. The broader trend remains buy on dip and levels of 24000 could be soon seen by the end of this month. Markets are nervous ahead of the tariff implementation as well as RBI MPC meet next week. For now 22900 -23000 zone is seen as a strong support for Nifty.

In line with Nifty, Bank Nifty as well shred close to 1.5% in Tuesday’s session. Bank Nifty has retested its 200DMA sub 51000 mark after completing its initial targets at 51650 which we had highlighted last week. The index has been leaning forwards in counts of - one step back and two step forward. Any dips between 49900 and 50400 are likely to get bought into for a strong up move towards 52500, given the outperforming stance of the index against Nifty for the past 6 months, Bank Nifty is down less than 4% v/s a drop of 10% on Nifty in the past 6 months.

Interesting Observation

In earlier observations shared in this segment, we've highlighted the positive momentum unfolding within the commodities market. Now, we take a closer look by analysing the ratio chart of Gold versus Copper prices.

Both gold and copper have experienced rallies since the start of 2025; however, the ratio chart has shown a decline, signalling copper's outperformance relative to gold. When examined on a weekly timeframe, this ratio has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its previous rally—one that marked gold’s outperformance from May to November 2024. Moreover, the ratio is currently at a critical role reversal zone, suggesting a potential shift where gold could reclaim its dominant position and resume its prior outperformance.

While our overall outlook remains bullish on commodities, we see an increasingly favourable scenario for gold to emerge as the top performer in the commodities space.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -5901.63 Crs.
DII Cash: 4322.58 Crs.

WTD
FII: -5901.63 Crs.
DII: 4322.58 Crs.

MTD
FII: -5901.63 Crs.
DII: 4322.58 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 17K short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 66K short contracts.

On the option front, 23000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 24000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 2

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 4

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 5

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 11

Replete Equities

28 Mar 2025 04:50

_Morning Snippet:- 28th March 2025_

Index Observation

After a spinning top formation ahead of its monthly expiry on Nifty, the index has not given any follow up on the downside yesterday. A weekly, monthly, quarterly and fiscal closing on charts is set for today as a trading holiday is scheduled on Monday. Overall charts continue to show strength for scaling back to 24000, however the set up yet does not allow for support to be trailed higher than 23000.

Bank Nifty recovered nearly all of its previous day’s losses in yesterday’s session, The index has been facing hurdle in sustaining above its previous target levels of 51650. Overall charts remain open for 52500 with a support seen at its 200 DMA near 51000. Dips near the 51000 are likely to get bought into for targets of 52500 aiming to be scaled by the RBI’s MPC meet scheduled from April 7-9.

Rollover Analysis

Early sign of Green shoots in Index futures

FIIs are initiating April series on a positive note as their net short position on index futures stand at 30k short contracts. This is the *lowest short exposure* of FIIs (in terms of no. of contracts) since 4th October 2024.


Nifty futures rollovers stood at 76% vs 81% (last three series). Nifty futures will start the April series at lower OI Base of 14.1mn shares vs. OI of INR 17.6mn shares seen at the start of March series. On Expiry Day, the roll cost for Nifty was at around 65 bps.

Bank Nifty rollover stood at 60% vs 3 month average of 59%. The average roll cost stood at 62 bps.

Market-wide futures open interest at the start of April series stands at ~INR 4.51tn as compared to ~ INR 4.36tn at the start of March series. Market-wide rollovers is at 89%, lower than the 3M avg. of 90%.


Sectoral & Stock Analysis

At the start of April series meaningful OI Addition is seen in Metal (Long Side), Energy (Long Side), and IT ( Short Side). 

* On long side, ONGC, BPCL, Shriram Finance has seen long buildup.
* On short side, TCS, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki has seen short buildup.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: 11111.25 Crs.
DII Cash: 2517.7 Crs.

WTD
FII: 21779.13 Crs.
DII: -849.0 Crs.

MTD
FII: 6367.0 Crs.
DII: 29939.19 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs net position on index futures at the start of April series now stand at 30K short contracts.

On the option front, 23500 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 24000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 3

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 12

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 3
New 52 Week Lows: 16

Replete Equities

27 Mar 2025 04:21

_Morning Snippet:- 27th March 2025_

Index Observation

After Tuesday’s close below its previous day’s highs, Nifty on Wednesday closed below its previous day’s low. This has given a confirmation to a spinning top formation ahead if its monthly expiry scheduled today. Overall charts continue to suggest a move towards 24000 odd, however charts are yet not allowing the support to be trailed higher than 23000. Along with this today is the last trading day for any tax adjustment to be done in the portfolio for the current fiscal which could allow volatility to remain elevated. An initial dip near 23300 before resumption of movement towards 24000 cannot be ruled out.

A 9% rally on Bank Nifty in the past 2 weeks have made the index trade at a fresh 3 month high. Intermediate targets have been met at 51650 while overall target continue to show biasness towards 52500 zone. A case of retesting its 200 DMA remains open wherein the index could initially take support at sub 51000 levels before inching higher as Bank Nifty looks more stretched compared to Nifty. However, outperformance of the same is likely to continue against Nifty.

Interesting Observation

Yesterday, we examined how the Russell 2000 is forming a base at key technical levels. Continuing our analysis of small-cap stocks, let's delve into a notable development in the ratio chart of the Russell 2000 versus the S&P 500.

Looking at the monthly chart, this ratio has been in a clear downtrend for several years, reflecting the relative weakness of small-cap stocks compared to their large-cap counterparts.

This kind of underperformance in U.S. small-cap stocks was last observed during the period 1999-2000, suggesting that the potential for further small-cap underperformance is limited. In fact, with the ratio trading near historical oversold levels, the stage may now be set for small caps to outperform, as such a shift in structure is long overdue.

Along with the recent developments in the standalone chart of Russell 2000 which was discussed yesterday, the structure of both charts suggests that the period of small cap stocks underperformance may be nearing its end, and a new phase of outperformance could be on the horizon.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 13.2
IVP : 69.2
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 78.6
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: 2240.5Crs.
DII Cash: -696.3 Crs.

WTD
FII: 10667.7 Crs.
DII: -3366.54 Crs.

MTD
FII: -4,744 Crs.
DII: 27,421 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 7k long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 84k short contracts.

On the option front, 23300 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23700 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 17-04-2025
INFY: Financial Results/Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 6

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 3
New 52 Week Lows: 7

Replete Equities

25 Mar 2025 07:15

Riding the Market Roller Coaster? Let's Plan

Read my thoughts here: https://newsletter.tradepik.com/posts/riding-the-market-roller-coaster-let-s-plan

#NIFTYFUTURE #stockmarketcrash #StockMarket #StockMarketIndia #trading

https://newsletter.tradepik.com/posts/riding-the-market-roller-coaster-let-s-plan

Replete Equities

25 Mar 2025 04:52

_Morning Snippet :- 25th March 2025_
 
Index Observation
 
With Nifty extending its targets towards its 200 DMA above 24k mark, the index ended on a strong footing yesterday gaining over 300 pts. This is the sixth straight day in gain adding over 1200 pts in the same time after the index broke out from its NR7. Support is unlikely to be trailed here.
 
Bank Nifty continued its outperformance highlighted in yesterday’s morning snippet. The index ended with 1111 pts gain after it gave a W pattern breakout in Friday’s daily / weekly closing. Both of its immediate targets are now complete at 50950/51650 while the index marches forward for its overall target of this leg at 52500. Bank Nifty has also reclaimed its 200 DMA in yesterday’s session.
 
BSE Sensex, similar to Nifty continued to remain on track to hit 79000 on the upside.
 
BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled today, while Nifty’s weekly expiry is scheduled for upcoming Thursday.
 
Interesting Observation
 
The Smallcap 100 to Nifty Top 100 ratio chart highlights the underperformance of small-cap stocks relative to their larger counterparts in 2025 so far. However, this ratio is now approaching a key level, marked by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally—representing the period of small-cap outperformance from 2023 to 2024. This retracement level aligns closely with the retest of the July 2021 breakout, which previously sparked a phase of small-cap outperformance.
 
Moreover, the ratio is stabilizing just above a rising trendline support, strengthening the case for a potential rebound. These technical signals suggest that the end of small caps’ underperformance is likely near and that they could regain strength relative to large caps in the near future.
 
Additionally, with expectations of further rate cuts by the RBI, rate-sensitive small- and mid-cap segments are likely to attract increased attention, potentially amplifying their relative performance.
 
DERIVATIVES
 
 
Index IV
 
NIFTY:
IV : 14.2
IVP : 79.2
IVR : 46.12
 
BANKNIFTY:
IV : 15.7
IVP : 78.6
IVR : 35.3
 
Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market
 
FII Cash:  3055.7 Crs.
DII Cash:  98.54 Crs.
 
WTD
FII: 3055.7 Crs.
DII: 98.54 Crs.
 
MTD
FII: -11,589 Crs.
DII: 30,886 Crs.
 
 
F&O CUES
 
FIIs stance on index futures were neutral  in the previous session. They have added 1.2k long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 96k short contracts.
 
On the option front, 23500 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 24000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.
 
 
UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS
 
Date: 25-03-2025
IREDA: Fund Raising
 
Date: 17-04-2025
INFY: Financial Results/Dividend
 
New 52 Week High Low Data
 
Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 6
New 52 Week Lows: 0
 
Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 4
New 52 Week Lows: 1
 
Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 5
New 52 Week Lows: 0
 
NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 15
New 52 Week Lows: 1