Replete Equities

11 Jul 2025 06:15

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Replete Equities

10 Jul 2025 12:10

Running Profit in our Monthly Income Strategies.

Replete Equities

09 Jul 2025 05:37

_Morning Snippet:- 09th July 2025_

*Index Observation*

Nifty broke its narrow range to close above its previous 2 day’s high. The index has also given a 5 day high on a closing basis, indicating that the heatedness been seen on the index is now out. As Nifty has closed above 25470 which we had been highlighting from the start of this week - a bullish pole and flag pattern is also seen on hourly charts of Nifty. Index prepares its next move towards 26000+ with a support seen at 25250 odd. Any dips near the 25450-470 odd mark are likely to get bought into.

Bank Nifty as well closed above its past 3 days high as the index is once again giving confirmation on charts by closing above 57200 to head back to fresh all time highs. Bank Nifty has been outperforming Nifty from the start of this calendar year. 56900 is now likely to act as a fresh trailing support zone on the index.

Nifty’s weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow while the weekly closing on charts is seen on Friday.

*Interesting Observation*

Follow-up Observation: Copper Spikes approximately 15% Amid Tariff-Driven Breakout.

Following our June 30, 2025 observation on COMEX Copper’s bullish long-term structure, the metal surged 15% yesterday, marking a decisive breakout from the multi-quarter consolidation.

This spike was triggered by a major geopolitical development:
The U.S. President announced its plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. This move has significantly tightened near-term supply outlooks, pushing prices sharply higher.

Technically, the move confirms the breakout from a long-term cup-and-handle / rounding bottom formation—an indication of a sustained structural uptrend. Previous quarter had already marked copper’s highest-ever closing, and the latest price action only solidifies the bullish momentum.

Copper-sensitive equities and industrial metals broadly are likely to see strong upside momentum in the near term.

*DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup*

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -26 crore
DII: ₹ 1,366 crore

*Week-to-Date (WTD)*

FII: ₹ 295 crore
DII: ₹ 3,219 crore

*Month-to-Date (MTD)*
FII: ₹ -5,478 crore
DII: ₹ 7,322 crore

*F&O Cues*

FIIs had neutral stance in previous trading session and have added 1k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 70k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25200 strike to act as support, while the 25800 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

08 Jul 2025 08:15

Read full article here: https://www.repleteequities.com/low-risk-option-hedging-strategy-india/

Replete Equities

08 Jul 2025 05:39

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Replete Equities

07 Jul 2025 08:31

Intraday Trend Looks complete "Neutral" in #Nifty today.

As per the OI data, Immediate support is at 25300 and resistance is at 25600.

A neutral strategy with the given levels as breakeven, looks good from here.

Replete Equities

07 Jul 2025 05:41

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Replete Equities

07 Jul 2025 05:40

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Replete Equities

02 Jul 2025 08:31

Trading Done for Today! 🤑

Created and managed a strategy manually today.

Replete Equities

02 Jul 2025 05:37

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Replete Equities

30 Jun 2025 07:07

Intraday Trend Analysis & Important Levels for June 30, 2025

#Nifty #BankNifty #stockmarketsindia #StockMarketNews #smallcap #stockmarketcrash #Rupee

Replete Equities

27 Jun 2025 07:04

_Morning Snippet:- 27th June 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty completed its 500 points target at 25550 in its expiry week - which was open from the start of this week. For now, all of the short term target on Nifty is now complete as the index is now less than 3% away from its all time highs. With support at yesterday’s low, Nifty is now open to scale back to 26000+.

Bank Nifty as well traded and closed at all time highs, completing its 1000 pt upmove we had highlighted for the past couple of trading sessions. Charts of Bank Nifty look stretched and overbought yet given the momentum and strength on the index, another 600-800 pt upmove can easily unfold on the index.

Weekly closing on charts is seen today while the monthly closing is scheduled for Monday.

Rollover Analysis

* FIIs are initiating July series on a neutral note. The net position on index futures stand at 35k *short contracts* as against 78k *short contracts* at the start of June series.
* ⁠The Client (Retail) category turned net long on index futures at the start of July series (19k long contracts) as against 58k long contracts at the start of June series

On Rollover front,

Nifty futures rollover stood at 79% vs 80% (last three series). On Expiry Day, the roll cost for Nifty was at around 37 bps.

Bank Nifty rollover stood at 76% vs 3 month average of 77%. The average roll cost stood at 27 bps.

Market-wide rollovers is at 89%, as against 3M avg. of 87%.


Stock Analysis

* On long side, Bajaj Auto, Poonawalla, has seen long buildup.
* On short side, SBI, IREDA, has seen short buildup.

Replete Equities

26 Jun 2025 06:21

_Morning Snippet:- 26th June 2025_

Index Observation

Despite huge volatility, Nifty has so far gathered half a percent gain for this week after its breakout closing on Friday. With an 8 month high closing seen on Wednesday ahead of its monthly expiry seen today, Nifty is set to scale towards target of its ongoing breakout for levels seen near 25500 odd. Support of 24780 remained unscathed in global volatility from the start of this week. Both blends of crude have also been trading over 10% lower from the start of this week allowing further positive rub off effect on Indian markets.

Bank Nifty as we’ll mirrored its move on Nifty as both indices gave a break on the upside as well as formation of an inside bar formation yesterday. A 1000+ points target has opened up from its recent breakout at 56200 for scaling back to fresh all-time highs.


Interesting Observation

The Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio showcases how the Nasdaq 100 outperformed the S&P 500 through 2023 and the first half of 2024. However, since then, the ratio had been stuck in a sideways range, signalling a pause in its outperformance. That consolidation seems to have ended.

In mid-May, the Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio broke out of a triangle pattern, followed by a successful retest. It is now trading comfortably above the breakout level. Notably, the recent breach of the previous swing high reinforces the likelihood of outperformance by Nasdaq 100 stocks, reflecting renewed strength in the U.S. technology segment.

While the Nasdaq 100 index trades near its all-time high, a decisive breakout could further bolster the case for U.S. tech stocks.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -2,427 crore
DII: ₹ 2,372 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -9,567 crore
DII: ₹ 13,072 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -5,670 crore
DII: ₹ 69,960 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had positive stance in previous trading session and have added 2k long contracts. Their net position now stand at 107k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25000 strike to act as support, while the 25300 strike remains a key resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 4
New 52 Week Lows: 2

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 5
New 52 Week Lows: 2

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 9
New 52 Week Lows: 4

Replete Equities

25 Jun 2025 05:35

_Morning Snippet:- 25th June 2027_

Index Observation

Nifty ended marginally higher on Tuesday even after the positive newsflow from geopolitical front and a huge cooloff on crude oil prices. This unfolded amid profit taking spree played in expiry session on the BSE Sensex as both Nifty and BSE Sensex hit 8-month highs in opening hour. With support of 24780 remained unscathed despite huge volatility in past 2 days, markets continue to show signs of a 500 pt move northwards from 25050 and any dips near the 25k mark is likely to get bought into with a 200 odd point stop loss.

Bank Nifty as well mirrored its move on Nifty as both indices gave a break on the upside after an inside bar formation earlier this week. A 1000+ points is likely to play out as Bank Nifty closed above the 56200 resistance on daily and weekly charts on Friday. Support of 55400 remained unscathed in yesterday’s volatility allowing further room for the index to hit all-time highs.

Ongoing volatility is expected to remain high given the monthly expiry session scheduled for tomorrow on all stock derivatives as well as Nifty.

Interesting Observation

When measured against US M2 money supply, long-term charts of Gold and Silver reveal a compelling divergence.

Gold has broken above a multi-decade downtrend that has been intact since the 1980s — a significant technical development. Meanwhile, Silver’s ratio to M2 has been rising since 2024 but still trades below its own long-term trendline. However, its gradual upward drift suggests a similar breakout could be on the horizon.

This divergence suggests that Silver could be setting up for a similar breakout. While short-term volatility may continue, the long-term setup warrants close attention — especially if Silver begins to follow Gold’s lead.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -5,266 crore
DII: ₹ 5,209 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -7,140 crore
DII: ₹ 10,800 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -3,243 crore
DII: ₹ 67,587 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had negative stance in previous trading session and have added 6k long contracts. Their net position now stand at 109k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 24800 strike to act as support, while the 25200 strike remains a key resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 3
New 52 Week Lows: 2

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 5
New 52 Week Lows: 3

Replete Equities

24 Jun 2025 05:35

_Morning Snippet: 24th June 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty ended half a percent lower on Monday as the market took a step back after ending at 10 day high ahead of the weekend however the support of 24800 remained unscathed in yesterday’s volatility. Targets for 500 pt upside as highlighted yesterday continue to remain open from the resistance point of 25050 now fueled by newsflow of ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Both blends of crude have also been trading over 10% lower in the past 12 hours allowing further rub off effect on Indian markets.

Bank Nifty as we’ll mirrored its move on Nifty as both indices formed an inside day bar formation on daily charts. As highlighted yesterday a large move of nearly 1000+ points in likely to play out as Bank Nifty closed above the 56200 resistance on daily and weekly charts on Friday. Support of 55400 remained unscathed in yesterday’s volatility allowing further room for the index to hit all time highs.

_Volatility is expected to remain elevated even after the ceasefire announcement today early morning clubbed with a BSE Sensex expiry today and all stock derivatives expiry and NSE Nifty monthly expiry on Thursday._

Interesting Observation

The sharp rise in the 30Y-10Y yield spread of Indian government bonds suggests the bond market is recalibrating.

Following the RBI's rate cut, short-term yields remained anchored while long-term yields climbed—implying markets expect limited further easing and are now focused on long-duration risks, possibly fiscal.

Meanwhile, as yield spreads between India and the US narrow, Indian bonds appear less attractive to global investors, raising the risk of capital outflows and pressure on the rupee.

What remains to be seen is whether this bond outflow rotates into Indian equities or is redirected toward developed markets.

DERIVATIVES

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -1874.38 Crs.
DII Cash: 5591.77 Crs.

WTD
FII: 5591.77 Crs.
DII: -1874.38 Crs.

MTD
FII: 9488.98 Crs.
DII: 54911.92 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 6K short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 102K short contracts.

On the option front, 24900 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 25000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 3
New 52 Week Lows: 3

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 3

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 4
New 52 Week Lows: 6

Replete Equities

10 Jul 2025 12:55

A trainer gives you answers, but a Guru? They get you asking the right questions.

When a trainer is done, you might celebrate. But when a Guru is done, life itself celebrates.

Happy Guru Purnima 🙏

Replete Equities

09 Jul 2025 06:00

Running Profit in our Monthly Income Strategies.

Replete Equities

09 Jul 2025 05:36

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Replete Equities

08 Jul 2025 05:40

_Morning Snippet:- 08 July 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty experienced a rangebound day on its first trading day of this week with index futures recording the lowest volumes for this year in yesterday’s session. Any closing above Friday’s high of 25470 would confirm a reversal for the index to set back on track for 26000+ however downside support of 25250 continues to be monitored for n charts for this bullish set up to remain valid.

Bank Nifty as well ended flat after trading in a wider 400 point range compared to Nifty. Unless a closing above 57200 is not confirmed- the index can continue to remain open for a retest of its support at 56300.

BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for today while Nifty’s weekly expiry is scheduled for coming Thursday.


Interesting Observation

Following our earlier observation on the falling U.S. Dollar (DXY) benefiting emerging markets—particularly Latin America—we now turn our attention to a broader EM currency perspective.

To assess this, we constructed an equal-weighted FX index comprising five major emerging market currencies: the Chinese Yuan (CNY), Indian Rupee (INR), Taiwanese Dollar (TWD), Brazilian Real (BRL), and South Korean Won (KRW). This custom index has just broken out of a decade-long falling wedge pattern—a bullish technical formation—signaling that emerging market currencies are gaining strength.

This strengthening FX trend adds further tailwinds to EM economies at a time when valuations remain significantly more attractive than their developed market peers (as shared last week). With both currency and valuation trends aligning, emerging markets are starting to look increasingly attractive to global investors.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ 321 crore
DII: ₹ 1,853 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ 321 crore
DII: ₹ 1,853 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -5,451 crore
DII: ₹ 5,965 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had negative stance in previous trading session and have added 3k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 69k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25200 strike to act as support, while the 25800 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

07 Jul 2025 08:31

When you're trying to hedge your options, Open Interest data is really all you need. Adding more information, like extra data points or price charts, often just makes things more confusing.

So, if the market's jumping around but not really going anywhere, I just focus on Open Interest and skip the charts entirely.

Replete Equities

07 Jul 2025 06:42

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Replete Equities

07 Jul 2025 05:41

_Morning Snippet:- 07th July 2025_

Index Observation

After hovering near its previous support retest of 25250 Nifty reversed on Friday forming a bullish pin bar. Any trade above Friday’s high of 25470 would confirm a reversal and put the index back on track for 26000+. However on downside support of 25250 continues to be monitored on charts.

Bank Nifty as well after trading below its previous day’s low, recovered all of its previous day losses gaining over 200 pts at closed. Unless a close above 57200 is not confirmed the index can continue to remain open for a retest of its support at 56300.

BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow while NSE Nifty weekly expiry is scheduled for Thursday.

Interesting Observation

The MSCI Emerging Market Latin America Index (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia) is currently climbing while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trends lower—reflecting a historically inverse relationship.

Latin American markets are heavily tied to commodities and exports, both of which benefit from a weaker dollar. A falling DXY improves terms of trade, lifts commodity prices, and attracts capital inflows into risk assets like LATAM equities.

A softer dollar also lowers external debt burdens in countries like Brazil and Chile, improving fiscal space and corporate margins.

This dollar-driven tailwind is drawing capital into Latin American equities, particularly those tied to undervalued currencies and commodity leverage. If the dollar continues to decline and macro tailwinds hold, LATAM equities may continue their relative strength.

This will inturn be a result of higher commodity prices

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -760 crore
DII: ₹ -1,028 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -6,603 crore
DII: ₹ 7,610 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -5,773 crore
DII: ₹ 4,111 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had negative stance in previous trading session and have added 3k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 65k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25200 strike to act as support, while the 25800 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

04 Jul 2025 05:34

*Morning Snippet:- 04th July 2025*

*Index Observation*

Nifty once again witnessed an inside bar formation on daily charts yesterday. After an engulfing bearish formation at the start of this week, the index has been facing selling pressure at higher levels. It now appears that Nifty is likely to retest its support of 25250 first before following the underlying bullish tone upside.

Bank Nifty having formed an engulfing bearish formation on Wednesday, has also given a follow up breakdown in yesterday’s closing by ending below its previous day’s low. As highlighted in yesterday’s morning snippet, the index faced resistance between 57150 - 57200 and is now on its target towards 56300.

Nifty’s weekly closing on charts is scheduled for today.

Do note, that U.S markets are closed tonight for trading on account of Independence Day in the U.S.

*Interesting Observation*
The S&P 500 is currently witnessing heightened bullish sentiment, with the Greed & Fear Index at extreme greed levels, signaling potential investor over-enthusiasm. Adding to the optimism, the index has recently triggered a Golden Crossover on 30th June 2025, where the 50-day moving average (DMA) has crossed above the 200-DMA—a historically bullish technical signal.

This convergence of technical strength and elevated sentiment could fuel further FOMO-driven inflows as retail and institutional investors anticipate continued upside.

It thus remains crucial to see how developed markets perform from Hereon as sentiments are turning bullish as well as reaching to an extreme conditions

*DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup*

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -1,481 crore
DII: ₹ 1,333 crore

*Week-to-Date (WTD)*

FII: ₹ -5,843 crore
DII: ₹ 8,637 crore

*Month-to-Date (MTD)*
FII: ₹ -5,012 crore
DII: ₹ 5,140 crore

*F&O Cues*

FIIs had negative stance in previous trading session and have added 12k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 61k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25200 strike to act as support, while the 25800 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

02 Jul 2025 05:38

_Morning Snippet:- 02nd July 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty remained broadly unchanged in yesterday’s session with the index forming an inside bar pattern. Trading through the session was confined within its previous day’s range and a break above or below yesterday’s high/low is likely to set the tone for short term on the index. Overall view continues to remain unchanged from yesterday wherein charts show upside for 26000+ with a support at 25250 yet cautious tone is advised to be adapted due to engulfed pattern formation earlier this week.

Bank Nifty marginally outperformed Nifty as the index remained open to scale towards 57900 odd levels. Trailed support js seen at 57000 while charts in this index also continue to look stretched.

Nifty weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow.

Interesting Observation

Yesterday, we highlighted key long-term setups in both Copper and Silver, reflecting their resilience in the face of broader market uncertainty.

To broaden the view, we created an equal weight index encompassing key base metals Copper, Zinc and Aluminium, and precious metals Gold and Silver.

On the short-term chart, this index is testing a strong resistance zone defined by previous swing highs and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent decline on the daily chart.

A decisive break above this hurdle could ignite further momentum across base and precious metals, potentially spilling over into metal related equities.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -1,970 crore
DII: ₹ 771 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -2,801 crore
DII: ₹ 4,268 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -1,970 crore
DII: ₹ 771 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had neutral stance in previous trading session and have added 600 short contracts. Their net position now stand at 38k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25200 strike to act as support, while the 25800 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

30 Jun 2025 12:03

Week Started on a positive note.

Create a moderately bearish credit spread that worked perfectly well.

Replete Equities

29 Jun 2025 09:27

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Replete Equities

26 Jun 2025 16:07

As expected market gave a good bullish movement.

Today entered in buying strategies only that end up with a decent profit.

Nowadays buying strategies are generating better results compared to selling. Only need to build a mindset to handle wild MTM swing.

Replete Equities

26 Jun 2025 06:20

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Replete Equities

25 Jun 2025 05:34

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Replete Equities

24 Jun 2025 05:35

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