Replete Equities

24 Mar 2025 04:43

*Mid Cap:*
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 0

*Small Cap:*
New 52 Week Highs: 4
New 52 Week Lows: 0

*NIFTY500:*
New 52 Week Highs: 10
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Replete Equities

21 Mar 2025 04:53

_Morning Snippet:- 21st March 2025_

*Index Observation*

Nifty completed its full move of breakout from NR7 pattern which had a range of 2% and post breakout a similar target of 2%. This was complete between 23100-23150 in yesterday’s weekly expiry session. Along with this Nifty has also given a breakout of its 6 month sloping trendline which has been in place from the start of this correction (Sept 2024). This breakout has opened up further levels to be scaled higher on the Nifty, for targets of 23500 / 23800 however since yesterday’s move was also an expiry one, we would want to wait for today’s price action confirmation as well for a sustained closed above 23100. On the flip side, support continues to remain stagnant at 22800.

_We have so far booked 850 pts in the *Index Call* section via Nifty futures trades in this index move from 22000 - 23200 odd. However, via the morning snippet this number has been widely higher._

Bank Nifty as well, after completing its initial target of 49800 has missed the follow up target of 50200 by a few points (likely to be completed in the opening trade today). The index looks mildly stretched a daily charts with a move with gathered nearly 2000 pts upside in the current week itself. A close above 50200 in today’s weekly closing is likely to act as a decider for further momentum on the index which support remains UN-trailed at 49300 odd.

Nifty’s weekly closing is scheduled for today while BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for upcoming Tuesday.

*Interesting Observation*

Yesterday’s close in the Nifty 50 index saw a significant improvement in structure, reinforcing momentum and marking an important step in its recovery. The index ended the session above two major resistance levels on the daily chart.

First, Nifty decisively broke and closed above a long-standing trendline that had been intact since its all-time high. Second, it surpassed the 50% retracement of its previous downtrend—a threshold that had consistently capped previous pullbacks. Until now, every rebound following Nifty’s correction had failed to exceed the 50% retracement mark. However, this time, Nifty 50 has convincingly breached that level. The confluence of these two breakouts paints an encouraging picture for the index.

While the index marches higher, it has entered into a critical zone that is “susceptible to bear”. The 23,000–23,500 range will serve as a decisive battleground for traders as they determine their next moves.

Within this range, bulls face several key technical hurdles: the 233 EMA around 23300, a 50% and 23% retracement level from the previous swing highs (aa shown) , A successful breakout above this zone is crucial for the bullish momentum to sustain.

*DERIVATIVES*


*Index IV*

*NIFTY:*
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

*BANKNIFTY:*
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

*Trade Setup*
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: 3239.14 Crs.
DII Cash: -3136.02 Crs.

*WTD*
FII: -882.85 Crs.
DII: 7033.49 Crs.

*MTD*
FII: -22114.1 Crs.
DII: 33483.85 Crs.


*F&O CUES*

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 17K long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 111K short contracts.

On the option front, 23000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23500 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


*UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS*

*Date: 25-03-2025*
IREDA: Fund Raising

*Date: 17-04-2025*
INFY: Financial Results/Dividend

*New 52 Week High Low Data*

*Large Cap:*
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 0

*Mid Cap:*
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 0

*Small Cap:*
New 52 Week Highs: 5
New 52 Week Lows: 1

*NIFTY500:*
New 52 Week Highs: 8
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Replete Equities

19 Mar 2025 05:06

Morning Snippet:- 19th March 2025

Index Observation

Nifty has gained over 500 pts from its opening level on Monday as the index tries to get back its mojo. With yesterday’s move, Nifty has registered highest positive absolute change in the past 6 weeks of trade reclaiming its 22800 mark. We had highlighted yesterday about Nifty breaking out from an NR7 formation towards 22800 / 23100 odd, off which the initial target has been met. Any dips near the 22700 mark is likely to act as a buy on dip level for an upside near 23100 wherein the index meets its downward sloping trendline resistance.

Bank Nifty has gained traction after reversing from its 9 month low which was hit last week. The follow through move we had highlighted yesterday has played out with the index gaining 2% in a single session having completed its immediate target of 49000. The index now hails forward to hit 49800 / 50200 while any dips near the 49000 mark can be used to add fresh longs for the mentioned target on the upside.

Nifty weekly expiry is scheduled for Thursday along with reaction of Indian markets to the FOMC outcomes due tonight in the U.S markets.


Interesting Observation

The custom index of top chemical stocks has recently broken out of a channel that had been forming since October 2024. This breakout on the daily timeframe is supported by a strong technical foundation, as the swing low coincides with two key Fibonacci levels: the 38.2% retracement and the 61.8% extension. Such a confluence of support levels often signals a strong base, providing momentum for prices to reclaim previous highs of October.

A comparative analysis of chemical stocks against the Nifty 50 and other sectoral indices further strengthens the bullish outlook. Over the past six months, as well as from the point of Nifty’s all-time high, chemical stocks have outperformed both the Nifty 50 and other sectors. This consistent relative strength highlights the sector’s resilience, even in volatile market conditions.

Thus, the sector’s strong price action and continued outperformance position it as a market leader. The ongoing momentum suggests further potential for upside, making chemical stocks an attractive space.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: 694.57 Crs.
DII Cash: 2534.75 Crs.

WTD
FII: -3025.49 Crs.
DII: 8028.75 Crs.

MTD
FII: -24256.74 Crs.
DII: 34479.11 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 30K long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 141K short contracts.

On the option front, 22500 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 19-03-2025
NHPC: Fund Raising
RECLTD: Dividend
TATAMOTORS: Fund Raising

Date: 20-03-2025
INDIANB: Fund Raising
MANAPPURAM: Fund Raising/Other business matters
TVSMOTOR: Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 0

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 3
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Replete Equities

19 Mar 2025 05:04

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

18 Mar 2025 10:39

This time, we will not only share the basket but will share the future updates about optimizations also.

Because with our optimisation, no strategies will work forever.

We will also help to setup your algo tool.

So if you are seriously interested to trade with our newly optimised basket, can DM us @RepleteEq now.

Replete Equities

18 Mar 2025 04:44

_Morning Snippet:- 18th March 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty ended half a percent higher after an extended weekend however the index has not closed above its previous day’s highs. The index has reclaimed its resistance of 22450 and is now moving forward towards 22800 / 23000. NR7 formation is also seen on Nifty wherein the index is trading within a narrow range of less than 2% for the past 7 trading days. A breakout from the same, is likely to allow for a 2% move in the direction of the breakout.

_We have given a buy call on Nifty March Futures ag 22450 with a 120 pr SL and 350 pt target on the upside._

Bank Nifty for the 4th straight day has traded above its previous day’s highs without scathing its previous day’s low. This indicates upcoming outperformance on the index. It has also popped out from its narrow range of 47800 - 48100. A 1% to 1.5% follow through move from 48100 is likely to unfold now, however a sustained short covering move is likely to unfold unless a close above 49000 is not seen.

BSE Sensex having reclaimed 74000 in the first half of yesterday’s session has put it back on track to hit 74800 / 79300. An upward momentum is kikely to pick up on sustaining above 74300 with its weekly expiry scheduled today.

Interesting Observation

Building on insights from the Chartwatchers report, today we discuss the unique seasonality of the S&P 500 in the year following U.S. presidential elections. This analysis draws on price action data from 1995 onward, providing a focused perspective on market behavior. Unlike conventional seasonality charts, this approach zeroes in on how market dynamics unfold in the aftermath of elections.

The data reveals a distinctive pattern: the S&P 500 often experiences a correction in March, followed by a sustained bullish trend through the remainder of the year. This March dip, while seemingly a cause for concern, historically proves to be a buying opportunity as it often fuels a recovery.

Recognizing the March correction as a recurring pattern can allow market participants to capitalize on the upward trajectory that typically follows. By leveraging these historical insights, investors can align their strategies with the underlying rhythms of the post-election year market cycle.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -4488.45 Crs.
DII Cash: 6000.6 Crs.

WTD
FII: -4488.45 Crs.
DII: 6000.6 Crs.

MTD
FII: -25719.7 Crs.
DII: 32450.96 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 12K long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 171K short contracts.

On the option front, 22000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 19-03-2025
NHPC: Fund Raising
RECLTD: Dividend
TATAMOTORS: Fund Raising

Date: 20-03-2025
INDIANB: Fund Raising
MANAPPURAM: Fund Raising/Other business matters
TVSMOTOR: Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 4

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 10

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 30

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 3
New 52 Week Lows: 44

Replete Equities

17 Mar 2025 04:48

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

14 Mar 2025 04:50

🌸✨ Happy Holi from Replete Equities! ✨🌸

Holi is not just a festival of colors; it’s a celebration of new beginnings, joy, and togetherness—just like in the world of trading, where every new opportunity is a fresh splash of potential!

This Holi, may your portfolio be as vibrant as the colors in the sky and your profits as abundant as the festive spirit! Let's celebrate the festival of colors with the wisdom of patience, strategy, and smart investments.

Wishing you and your family a prosperous, colorful, and joy-filled Holi! 🎨💰

Replete Equities

13 Mar 2025 04:27

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

12 Mar 2025 13:23

🔹 *Private Markets Interesting opportunities* ✨️

1. NSE (National Stock Exchange of India)

Why Invest?

✅ Largest stock exchange in India with dominant market share (~90% in equity derivatives).
✅ Strong revenue model from transaction fees, listing fees, and data services.
✅ Pending IPO—expected to be one of the biggest in India.
✅ Strong financials: FY23 profit of ₹7,356 crore ($882 million).
✅ Backed by top institutions like LIC, SBI, GIC, and foreign PE investors.


---

2. Bira 91 (B9 Beverages)

Why Invest?

✅ India’s largest craft beer brand, targeting premium market.
✅ Strong investor backing: Sequoia (24.83%), Kirin Holdings (21.25%), Tiger Pacific Capital.
✅ Expanding global presence in U.S., UK, Singapore.
✅ High-margin product & premium pricing power vs. traditional beer brands.
✅ Recent $50M funding from Tiger Pacific & Kirin Holdings for expansion.


---

3. API Holdings (PharmEasy)

Why Invest?

✅ India’s largest digital healthcare platform (pharmacy + diagnostics).
✅ Strong backers: Prosus, TPG, Temasek, B Capital, Acko.
✅ Post-acquisition of Thyrocare, has a pharmacy + diagnostics ecosystem.
✅ Shift towards health-tech, e-commerce & online pharmacies makes it future-proof.
✅ Cost efficiencies & expansion in Tier 2 & Tier 3 markets improving financials.


---

4. OYO (Oravel Stays Pvt. Ltd.)

Why Invest?

✅ One of the largest hospitality chains globally—presence in India, SEA, Europe.
✅ Tech-enabled business model improving occupancy & pricing.
✅ Upcoming profitability—focused on reducing losses & positive cash flow.
✅ Backed by SoftBank, Sequoia, Lightspeed, Airbnb.
✅ IPO-ready company—potential exit & valuation jump on listing.


---

5. Infra.Market

Why Invest?

✅ India’s fastest-growing B2B infra-tech company—modernizing construction materials supply chain.
✅ Tech-driven procurement & supply model—disrupting a traditional industry.
✅ Backed by marquee investors: Tiger Global, Accel, Evolvence India, Nexus VP.
✅ Recent $121M pre-IPO funding round led by Tiger Global at a $2.8B valuation.
✅ Strong revenue growth: $1.78B in FY24).


---

6. NCDEX (National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange)

Why Invest?

✅ India’s leading commodity derivatives exchange—key player in agri & metal trading.
✅ Growing demand for commodity hedging in a volatile market.
✅ Regulatory backing & support for commodity trading growth in India.
✅ Steady revenue from transaction fees & hedging instruments.
✅ IPO-ready with strong profitability & sector leadership.


---

7. Hinduja Leyland Finance (HLF)

Why Invest?

✅ Leading NBFC in commercial vehicle financing, part of the Hinduja Group.
✅ Strong parent backing from Ashok Leyland, India’s second-largest commercial vehicle manufacturer.
✅ Diverse lending portfolio covering commercial vehicles, construction equipment, tractors, and SME finance.
✅ Consistent profitability—AUM growth from ₹29,900 Cr ($4.4B) in FY24.
✅ IPO-ready company—expected to list soon, providing strong exit potential.


---

8. NSDL (National Securities Depository Limited)

Why Invest?

✅ India’s largest depository—holds more than 89% of the total demat securities in India.
✅ Key player in India’s financial infrastructure, handling securities, IPO processing, e-voting, and corporate governance services.
✅ Strong institutional backing—owned by NSE, IDBI Bank, Union Bank of India, SBI, HDFC Bank, and others.
✅ Consistent revenue growth driven by rising demat account openings, stock market participation, and digital services adoption.
✅ IPO-ready with strong profitability and increasing investor participation in capital markets.

Replete Equities

11 Mar 2025 07:23

Why Stock Market is falling today in India
https://www.repleteequities.com/why-indian-stock-market-falling-today/

Replete Equities

11 Mar 2025 04:32

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

10 Mar 2025 14:50

Week Started on a positive note.

0.30% Intraday Return.

Perfectly handled today's volatility by our Nifty Basket.

If you want to trade with us, open a trading account with us and get access to our premium basket.

Feel free to DM us or visit: repleteequities.com/acopen

Replete Equities

10 Mar 2025 05:54

Intraday Trend Analysis & Important Levels for March 10, 2025

#Nifty #BankNifty #stockmarketsindia #StockMarketNews #smallcap #stockmarketcrash #Rupee

Replete Equities

07 Mar 2025 06:49

Intraday Trend Analysis & Important Levels for March 07, 2025

#Nifty #BankNifty #stockmarketsindia #StockMarketNews #smallcap #stockmarketcrash #Rupee

Replete Equities

24 Mar 2025 04:43

_Morning Snippet :- 24th March 2025_

*Index Observation*

Nifty has not only achieved its earlier target of 23100 but exceeded the same by a percentage. With this target exceeding - Nifty has given a breakout of its 6-month falling trendline breakout. Targets of the same are initially aiming to reach the 24000 mark. At this level the index also meets its 200 DMA resistance wherein it could take a breather of this 10% up move from its bottom seen from early March 2025. Any dips below the 23200 mark are likely to get bought into with support seen at 22950 odd and above mentioned upside.

Bank Nifty has been outperforming Nifty for the past 1 week now as well as all through these 6 months of correction passed by. Currently Bank Nifty has given an inverted ‘W’ pattern breakout on daily charts, with targets aiming as high as 52500 on the upside. All of last week’s buying was majorly screen based and is likely to sustain unlike the ones which fizzle out due to run-aways gaps on charts. Dips near the 50000 mark should be bought for targets of 50950 / 51650 initially and finally we can look for 52500 upside in the next couple of weeks.

BSE Sensex similar to Nifty has ended at a 5 week closing highs having exceeded all of its targets seen on the upside. A further move towards 79000 has now opened up given the trendline breakout on daily charts. Any dips below 76000 are now likely to get bought into with support of 75500.

_While for tomorrow’s weekly expiry on Sensex, intraday support and resistance are seen at 76500 and 77550._

*Interesting Observation*

The weekly chart of India’s 10-year bond yield highlights a drop to its 161-week low, breaking key Fibonacci levels (the 50% retracement of a prior two-year rally and the 100% extension of the first leg of correction following the 2022 highs). This signals strong bullish sentiment in the bond market and rate-sensitive sectors while providing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with room to cut rates further.

Key Drivers Behind Falling Yields:

1. Cooling Inflation: Inflation has fallen to a seven-month low of 3.61%, below the RBI’s target of 4%. This reduces pressure on the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Lower inflation improves real yields, making bonds more attractive.
2. Rupee Appreciation: The rupee strengthening to a two-month high provides further room for the RBI to ease rates, as a stronger currency helps curb imported inflation.
3. Rate Cut Expectations: With inflation being under control and the currency stabilizing, markets are beginning to price in a potential rate cut by the RBI in the coming months.

Notably, India has been slower in implementing rate cuts compared to other major economies. While China, Europe, and the U.S. began easing their monetary policies in early 2024, India only introduced its first rate cut in February 2025.

As yields continue to fall, with further downside potential seen on the chart near a critical Fibonacci level 6.29%, this is expected to inject more liquidity into the economy, providing support to equity markets and rate-sensitive sectors, ultimately fostering economic growth.

*DERIVATIVES*


*Index IV*

*NIFTY:*
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

*BANKNIFTY:*
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

*Trade Setup*
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: 7470.35 Crs.
DII Cash: -3202.26 Crs.

*WTD*
FII: 6588.3Crs.
DII: 3831.2 Crs.

*MTD*
FII: -14,644 Crs.
DII: 30,281 Crs.


*F&O CUES*

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 14k long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 97k short contracts.

On the option front, 23000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23500 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


*UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS*

*Date: 25-03-2025*
IREDA: Fund Raising

*Date: 17-04-2025*
INFY: Financial Results/Dividend

*New 52 Week High Low Data*

*Large Cap:*
New 52 Week Highs: 5
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Replete Equities

20 Mar 2025 04:39

_Morning Snippet:- 20th March 2025_

Index Observation

Having gained over 600 pts from the opening level of this week, Nifty is swiftly heading for its second target after the NR7 pattern breakout which is seen at 23100 odd. An unchanged stance from FED last night on rates but reassuring the market about follow up during the year has sparked mojo in global markets. Any dips below 22800 odd are to be bought for target of 23100+.

Bank Nifty completed its initial target in this follow up move we had highlighted yesterday. 49800 is now reclaimed and the index eyes for 50200. Only a close above 50200 is likely to allow further momentum on the index. Bank Nifty has recouped 2000 pts from its 9 month low hit last week, in only 6 trading sessions.

Nifty weekly expiry is scheduled for today while the weekly closing on charts is seen tomorrow.

Interesting Observation

In this monthly chart, we examine the performance of Gold relative to the S&P 500 index through a ratio chart. Since 2022, this ratio had been consolidating within a triangle pattern, but recently it broke out decisively. This breakout is fueled by both Gold’s strength and relative weakness in U.S. equities.

Notably, an early signal of this trend emerged in September 2024 when the ratio broke above a long-term trendline that had been in place since late 2011. This trendline breakout set the precedent for Gold’s outperformance, reinforcing the bullish momentum that led to the subsequent triangle breakout.

Looking ahead, we expect the ratio to extend its uptrend by another 14% before encountering a significant resistance zone from where it has reversed thrice in the past.

Overall, this development strengthens the bullish case for precious metals, positioning Gold as a standout performer in the current market environment.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -1096.5 Crs.
DII Cash: 2140.76 Crs.

WTD
FII: -4121.99 Crs.
DII: 10169.51 Crs.

MTD
FII: -25353.24 Crs.
DII: 36619.87 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bullish in the previous session. They have added 12K long contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 128K short contracts.

On the option front, 22500 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23300 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 21-03-2025
JKCEMENT: Other business matters
LT: Fund Raising
MOTHERSON: Dividend

Date: 17-04-2025
INFY: Financial Results/Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 4
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 0

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 1

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 6
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Replete Equities

19 Mar 2025 05:04

Photo from Replete Equities

Replete Equities

18 Mar 2025 11:00

Today's Trading Activity with our Nifty Basket.

This is how we diversify. If one leg gives loss other will compensate to end up in green.

So if you are interested in this basket, DM now. @RepleteEq

Only 2 slots left, don't miss it.

Replete Equities

18 Mar 2025 10:36

As you knew we have created a Nifty basket especially for those who open a trading account with us.

But from last few days, I'm getting so many queries to share the Nifty Basket, so we have decided to share the basket with only limited numbers of traders.

Slots have almost full but we have only 2 slots left. If you are interested in this basket along with all future optimization for one year can DM us at @RepleteEq

Check backtest report here: https://www.repleteequities.com/nifty-basket-intraday-trading-strategy/

First come first serve only!

Replete Equities

17 Mar 2025 04:50

_Morning Snippet :- 17th March 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty had an inside bar formation ahead of an extended weekend wherein it remained confined within its previous days range. The index is likely to reclaim its recent resistance of 22450 due a gap up opening fueled by a stronger global handover. Charts have opened up for 22800+ with 22250 continuing to act as demand zone.

_We have given a buy call on Nifty March Futures at 22450 with a 120 pt SL and 350 pt target on upside._

Bank Nifty continued to remain under the congestion zone of 47800 - 48100 even after outperforming the Nifty in Thursday’s session. A break below 47800 allows the index to fall from a bearish cup and handle formation while sustaining above 48100 could allow a move northwards on the index. Either side a 1-1.5% follow through is expected on the index. Momentum is unlikely to get trigger on the index unless 49000 is taken out.

BSE Sensex ended in line with Nifty shredding quarter percentage in red while slipping marginally below its immediate support of 73900. A reclamation of 74000 in the first half of trade is likely to put the index back on track for 74800 / 79300 while its weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow. Momentum trigger on the upside remains at 74300 odd.

Interesting Observation

In the previous morning call, we discussed how the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM Index) is at breakout levels, creating a bullish outlook for commodities. We also mentioned one possible hurdle for this trajectory: the Crude Oil prices.

Crude oil prices are at a critical level, with the NYMEX crude oil monthly chart forming a descending triangle pattern since 2022. Prices are now testing the lower boundary of this pattern, and a confirmed breakdown could trigger a sharp decline.

Adding to the weakness, a long-term double top at the 2011 and 2021 highs reinforces the probability of further downside, as repeated failures at these levels indicate structural weakness.

With crude oil weighing 14% in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, a breakdown could act as a drag on the broader index, which is currently in an uptrend.

However this divergence between a rising Bloomberg Commodity Index and falling crude oil prices suggests a favorable environment for base metals and a boost for crude oil-importing economies like India.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -792.9 Crs.
DII Cash: 1723.82 Crs.

WTD
FII: -5729.68 Crs.
DII: 5499.47 Crs.

MTD
FII: -21231.25 Crs.
DII: 26450.36 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were neutral in the previous session. They have added 553 short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 184K short contracts.

On the option front, 22000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 22500 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 17-03-2025
IREDA: Fund Raising
IRFC: Dividend/Other business matters
NMDC: Dividend

**Date: 18-03-2025*,
CGPOWER: Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 2

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 5

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 21

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 28

Replete Equities

15 Mar 2025 05:07

Understanding Investment Risk & Reward

One of the most common questions I hear: Where should we invest?

Here’s a breakdown of different investment opportunities and their potential returns vs. risks:

🔹 Stock Market (Options & Equities): 12-20% return | Medium risk
🔹 Real Estate: 4-10% return | Low risk
🔹 Mutual Funds & ETFs: 6-12% return | Medium risk
🔹 Private Equity & Venture Capital: 20-50% return | High risk
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13 Mar 2025 15:17

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Replete Equities

13 Mar 2025 04:27

_Morning Snippet :- 13 March 2025_

Index View

Nifty recovered nearly 150 points from its intraday lows of Wednesday which was purely due to a weaker global handover to end flat. The index has been holding above its recent resistance of 22450 for the past couple of days as the market awaits a short covering trigger. Charts have opened up for a journey towards 22800+ for upcoming week awaited by a positive sentiment trigger to lift the index higher. On the downside 22250 is likely to act as fresh demand generator for the index.

Bank Nifty had ended at a 9 month low earlier this week due to pressure on smaller private banking space. Any price action allowing the index to sustain below 47800 could further trigger a bearish cup and handle breakdown on charts of Bank Nifty. Negation for the same stands at 48100 while a wider short covering move does not trigger unless a close above 49000 is not seen on the index.

_We have given a buy call on Nifty March Futures at 22450 with a 120 pt SL and a 350 pt target on the upside._

Nifty’s weekly expiry as well as weekly closing is scheduled for today ahead of trading holiday tomorrow.

Interesting Observation


After mid-2024, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has rebounded from a key support level, maintaining its structural integrity. This support zone is particularly significant as it aligns with both the previous polarity support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement—a confluence that strengthens its technical importance.

Unlike typical price corrections, this index has undergone a rare combination of time and price correction. This is evident as the duration of the correction mirrors that of the preceding rally (approximately 2 years and 1 quarter), highlighting a strong cyclical symmetry.

Adding more curiosity to the chart, a segment of this correction has taken shape within a broadening triangle pattern. With the structure firmly in place, prices now appear poised for a decisive breakout, setting the stage for a continuation of the uptrend. Strength in the index is attributed mainly to the precious metals and the industrial metals weighing 35% in the index combined. The laggard in the index is crude oil which weighs no more than 14%.

A final nudge above the pattern could confirm the next leg higher, reinforcing the bullish structure in commodities.

Just to give u highlight on copper; this metal is up 23% in this cy25.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -1627.61 Crs.
DII Cash: 1510.35 Crs.

WTD
FII: -4936.78 Crs.
DII: 3775.65 Crs.

MTD
FII: -20438.35 Crs.
DII: 24726.54 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 4K short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 183K short contracts.

On the option front, 22000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 13-03-2025
ANGELONE: Dividend
IIFL: Fund Raising

Date: 17-03-2025
IREDA: Fund Raising
IRFC: Dividend/Other business matters
NMDC: Dividend

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 6

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 6

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 11

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 2
New 52 Week Lows: 23

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11 Mar 2025 15:24

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11 Mar 2025 05:59

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Replete Equities

11 Mar 2025 04:31

_Morning snippet:- 11th March 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty ended its 3 day winning streak starting this week on a volatile note. The index drop nearly a percentage from its intraday high to end below previous day’s low however the resistance turned support of 22450 was saved on a closing basis. A gap down opening is expected to be on cards due to weak global handover from U.S markets and the first hour likely to be important for Nifty to decide its course for the ongoing move towards 22800/23000.

Bank Nifty as well ended half a percentage lower due to sell off in the last hour of trade closing below its past 2 day’s low. Similar to Nifty, the banking index has also marginally closed above its immediate support of 48200 while opening pressure in private banks today (due to newsflow from INDUSINDK) could allow the index to break this. Sub 47900 have been acting as multiple support for the index in the past 6 weeks of trade below which selling could intensify on banks, however reclaiming 48200 support could put the index back into stronger territory on charts.

BSE Sensex has NOT closed below its previous day’s low showing minor divergence against the Nifty, this is broadly due to its weekly expiry scheduled today. Sensex has also marginally closed above its support of 73900 similar to Nifty and Bank Nifty. So fat this support of 73900 is retained / reclaimed the index remains on track to hit 74800 / 79300.

Interesting Observation

In our latest ChartWatchers report, we have revised our outlook on the Indian market to a “buy on dips” strategy. One key insight highlighted in the report is a potential caveat for the Nifty 50 index.

Since September 2024, the Nifty 50 has been in a consistent downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. To reverse this trend, the index must overcome a crucial resistance zone between 23,000 and 23,500. This area is defined by key Fibonacci retracement levels and a major trendline, making it a significant test for the bulls. A decisive breakout above this zone could pave the way for a rally toward all-time highs.

However, if the index fails to surpass this resistance, it could face renewed downward pressure, potentially breaking below 21,964—its recent swing low.

Even in the event of a breakdown below 21,964, we believe this would likely result in a final panic-driven dip before the market stabilizes and begins a structural recovery for the remainder of 2025.

DERIVATIVES


Index IV

NIFTY:
IV : 12.56
IVP : 73.6
IVR : 46.12

BANKNIFTY:
IV : 14.7
IVP : 72.4
IVR : 35.3

Trade Setup
Activity in Cash Market

FII Cash: -485.41 Crs.
DII Cash: 263.51 Crs.

WTD
FII: -485.41 Crs.
DII: 263.51 Crs.

MTD
FII: -15986.98 Crs.
DII: 21214.4 Crs.


F&O CUES

FIIs stance on index futures were bearish in the previous session. They have added 3K short contracts. FIIs net position on index futures now stand at 179K short contracts.

On the option front, 22000 strike will continue to act as support as this strike has significant put open interest. On the upside, 23000 strike has significant call open interest and therefore will act as resistance.


UPCOMING CORPORATE EVENTS

Date: 12-03-2025
PFC: Fund Raising

Date: 13-03-2025
ANGELONE: Dividend
IIFL: Fund Raising

New 52 Week High Low Data

Large Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 1

Mid Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 0
New 52 Week Lows: 2

Small Cap:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 3

NIFTY500:
New 52 Week Highs: 1
New 52 Week Lows: 6

Replete Equities

10 Mar 2025 08:34

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Replete Equities

08 Mar 2025 08:49

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Replete Equities

05 Mar 2025 06:10

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