Replete Equities

25 Jul 2025 05:33

_Morning Snippet:- 25th July 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty washed off all of its previous day’s gain in its weekly expiry session yesterday despite closing at a 2 week high on Wednesday. Overall the index carried over the view for this week of a rangebound trade between 24800 - 25320. Larger move unfolds only after these levels are convincingly taken out on either side. Nifty has also formed an engulfing bearish pattern on daily charts in yesterday’s closing which could fuel for today’s gap down opening.

Bank Nifty continued its outperformance against the Nifty as the index heads towards a new all time high. 56700-56750 continues to act as a support / buy on dip zone while 57100 on upside is seen as a momentum trigger once again for the index.

Nifty’s weekly closing on charts is seen today while BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for coming Tuesday.

Interesting Observation

Yesterday, we highlighted how the Nifty 50 is currently witnessing one of its narrowest monthly ranges historically—around 2.9%. An analysis of similar past instances reveals a recurring pattern: periods of extremely low volatility are typically followed by a sharp pickup in price swings.

On average, the monthly range over the subsequent three months expands to ~6.1%, more than doubling the initial monthly range. This affirms the classic market behaviour where volatility expansion often follows compression.

However, what stands out in the historical context is that while volatility expands, directional clarity remains uncertain. As marked in the chart, Nifty often continues to oscillate within a broader range before eventually resolving into a trend. In essence, volatility returns before direction does.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -2,133 crore
DII: ₹ 2,617 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -11,571 crore
DII: ₹ 15,792 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -28,528 crore
DII: ₹ 37,687 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had neutral stance in previous trading session and have added 19 long contracts. Their net position now stand at 145k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 24800 strike to act as support, while the 25300 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

24 Jul 2025 17:59

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Replete Equities

24 Jul 2025 16:17

Last few hours left!

If you want to trade peacefully despite of the highly volatile market, then invest in our strategies.

Subscribe now: https://spf.bio/uxCJk

DM us, in case if you have any query.

Have a lovely evening.

Replete Equities

24 Jul 2025 13:02

One more profitable day added in our trading journal.

Just 2 trades and target done for the day..

Replete Equities

23 Jul 2025 12:56

A Strategy That Tames Volatility — Let’s Talk….

Check it out here: https://newsletter.repleteequities.com/posts/a-strategy-that-tames-volatility-let-s-talk

Replete Equities

22 Jul 2025 05:40

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Replete Equities

21 Jul 2025 05:31

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Replete Equities

19 Jul 2025 05:12

𝗠𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗳𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝘁.
𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗳𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗽.

This may sound counterintuitive. After all, trading is all about making decisions — right?
Entries, exits, stop-losses, profit targets... there’s a constant pressure to 𝗱𝗼 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴.

But here’s a powerful insight I’ve learned in my 13+ years trading derivatives:
👉 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗰𝘁 — 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝘁.

Successful traders aren’t defined by the number of trades they take each week.
They’re defined by their ability to sit on their hands when nothing aligns with their edge.

Most traders enter the market thinking more trades = more money.
In reality, 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗻 = 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝗶𝘀𝗲, 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀.

📌 Discipline is not just about rules.
📌 Discipline is about 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵 — the ability to say NO to 90% of the market noise.

In fact, your edge as a trader comes less from what you trade, and more from what you refuse to trade.

Let’s break this down:
- You see a setup, but the volume is flat. Do you walk away?
- A strategy worked 3 times in a row — do you double the position size impulsively, or stick to your plan?
- You’re in a loss — do you revenge trade or stop and reassess?

𝗘𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗮 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁.
…and 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 where most underperformance originates.

So, if you’re doing everything right — following patterns, indicators, strategies — but still underperforming,
Look at your “NO” muscle.
Evaluate your ability to stay out when the market isn’t serving you.

𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲.
Not just the discipline to act.
But the maturity to 𝘚𝘛𝘖𝘗 when you must.

If this resonates with you, and you’re serious about building a high-performance trading mindset rooted in discipline and structured execution…

👉 𝗗𝗠 𝗺𝗲. Let’s work together to eliminate noise and sharpen your edge.

#TradingDiscipline #PsychologyOfTrading #EdgeInMarkets #DerivativeTrading #RiskManagement #OptionTrading #PriceAction #RepleteEquities #SachinSival

Replete Equities

18 Jul 2025 05:33

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Replete Equities

17 Jul 2025 06:19

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Replete Equities

16 Jul 2025 16:18

A smooth PNL curve with a very low drawdown.

(Above backtest is based on 20 lots). 👆

That's why I always said: Technology is good but if don't understand the real market structure, it's nature or volatility, very tough to generate Consistent Income from Trading.

So use tools but don't bypass the basic rules of trading,

Now from Monday, I will automate this strategy through also tools and will share the weekly pnl on Friday.

Feel free to DM us in case if you are struggling somewhere and need our help.

Wanted to automate these strategies in your account? Open a trading account with us: repleteequities.com/acopen

Replete Equities

16 Jul 2025 16:17

In the last 2 months, I'm doing manual trading. Placed trades manually and handling these trades by my own. Just to understand the real market structure nowadays.

After my understanding is ready, I have created a strategy and backtested it.

Now looks at the resukts: 👇

Replete Equities

16 Jul 2025 05:45

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Replete Equities

15 Jul 2025 05:25

_Morning Snippet:- 15th July 2025_

*Index Observation*

After ending below its immediate support on Friday, Nifty continued to face pressure on the first trading day of this week as it continued to slide for targets of 25000 / 24800 on downside. Initial downside of 25k has been met and fresh upside opens up only on further closing above 25325. Daily charts continue to show signs on short term weakness in the index.

Bank Nifty on the other hand ended flat after challenging to break its previous day’s low. The index has not been closing below its support if 56750 despite making an attempt to do so for two consecutive days. Only a close below 56750 is going to allow further downside on the index marking a temporary pause to this outperformance in the index.

BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for today while Nifty’s weekly expiry is seen on upcoming Thursday.

*Interesting Observation*

Since 2009, Germany’s market capitalization as a share of global market cap has been on a steady decline, while the U.S. has seen a consistent rise—both trends clearly defined by their respective long-term trend lines.

However, 2025 appears to mark a potential inflection point. The German ratio has broken out above its long-term downward trend, suggesting renewed investor interest and capital inflows into European equities. Conversely, the U.S. market cap ratio has shown signs of stalling, indicating possible capital rotation out of U.S. equities.

If sustained, this divergence could serve as a leading signal of a broader structural reallocation within global equity markets.

*DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup*

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -1,6,14crore
DII: ₹ 1,787 crore

*Week-to-Date (WTD)*

FII: ₹ -1,614 crore
DII: ₹ 1,787 crore

*Month-to-Date (MTD)*
FII: ₹ -11,898 crore
DII: ₹ 14,190 crore

*F&O Cues*

FIIs had bearish stance in previous trading session and have added 18k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 121k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25000 strike to act as support, while the 25500 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

11 Jul 2025 06:16

_Morning Snippet: 11th July 2025_

Index Observation

After closing above its resistance of 25470 for 2 consecutive day, Nifty got trapped into selling pressure in its weekly expiry session. The index has closed at a 2 week low yet above its support of 25250, unless this is not given away, a larger downside doesn’t warrant on the index.

Bank Nifty as well in sync with Nifty is holding above its trailed support of 56900. A firm closing below this reversal range of 56750 - 56900 only opens for further downside on the index. Bank Nifty has been outperforming Nifty from the start of this year and has shown signs to head back to fresh all time highs from the start of this week.

Weekly closing on charts is scheduled for today while BSE Sensex weekly expiry is seen on forthcoming Tuesday.

Interesting Observation

The SPHB/SPLV ratio, which tracks high beta vs. low volatility S&P 500 stocks, has broken out to a new all-time high, signaling a clear risk-on shift in market sentiment.
This breakout reflects growing investor confidence, with capital rotating into cyclical and high-beta names over defensive sectors.

Historically, such strength in the ratio aligns with bullish phases in broader equity markets, often led by sectors like tech, discretionary, and industrials. The breakout above previous resistance near 1.34 reinforces the strength of momentum, suggesting continued outperformance of high-beta stocks.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ 221 crore
DII: ₹ 591 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ 593 crore
DII: ₹ 4,730 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -5,179 crore
DII: ₹ 8,844 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had bearish stance in previous trading session and have added 9k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 85k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25200 strike to act as support, while the 25800 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

24 Jul 2025 17:59

Premium Valuations : Earnings catch up or De-rating?

Over the last five years, most sectors within the NSE 500 have witnessed strong premiumization, with valuations trading well above historical averages. Industrials, in particular, have seen a sharp 136% re-rating, driven by sustained government capital expenditure and the accelerating ‘Make in India’ theme. Healthcare, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary have also experienced meaningful valuation expansion, supported by structural tailwinds and improving earnings visibility.

In contrast, Financials remain an exception. Despite their significant index weight, the sector currently trades at a median P/E of 21.1x below its pre-COVID level of 25.4x reflecting a 17% de-rating. This underperformance can be attributed to deposit growth lagging behind credit offtake, exerting pressure on net interest margins and profitability.

It will be interesting to see whether earnings catch up to justify these elevated valuations or if a broad-based de-rating takes shape.

Replete Equities

24 Jul 2025 17:59

Compression Signals in Nifty

Over the past few weeks, we have highlighted three key signs of market contraction: Nifty 50 volumes at their lowest levels this year, India VIX slipping to lows last seen in April 2024, and Nifty’s ATR falling to levels not witnessed since September 2024.

Adding to the outlook is Nifty’s unusually narrow monthly range of just 2.92%—a rare occurrence. Such tight monthly ranges have only been recorded a handful of times in the past:
• Jul 2021 – 2.89%
• Apr 2019 – 2.66%
• Jun 2017 – 2.76%
• Dec 2012 – 2.44%

This marks the first such instance in over four years. Historically, periods of extreme contraction in volatility are often precursors to heightened market swings.
Could Nifty 50 be setting the stage for a sharp move ahead?

Regards,
Nuvama Technical Research.

Replete Equities

24 Jul 2025 13:02

Traded newly optimised strategy today.

You can get instant access from here: https://spf.bio/uxCJk

Link is valid till midnight today. So act now and be a part of our trading journey.

Replete Equities

23 Jul 2025 13:13

We are sharing this basket only with max 10 peoples. 👆👆

So if you are interested to deploy this in your account, you can get access from here: https://spf.bio/uxCJk

Replete Equities

22 Jul 2025 05:41

_Morning Snippet:- 22nd July 2025_

Index Observation

After breaking below its previous day’s low, Nifty saw a round of short covering allowing the index to cover majority of its previous day’s losses. Larger downside opens up only below 24800 while global cues suggest a gap up opening for the index. Short covering is set to extend if the index holds above 25150. For now range between 24800 - 25150 is formed and break on either side can allow further move.

_On weekly charts as well, India VIX ended at a fresh 52 week low, followed by formation of double doji pattern on daily charts. Thid could be taken as an early sign of reversal on volatility.

Bank Nifty not only outperformed against Nifty but also reclaimed back above its resistance of 56750 fueled by strong price action on index heavyweights after strong earnings over the weekend. Index is now back on track for new all time highs and all dip towards 56700 are likely to get bought into.

BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for today while Nifty’s weekly expiry is set for coming Thursday.

Interesting Observation

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the performance of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, had been consolidating within a tight range since October 2024, following a sharp rally in September 2024. This nine-month consolidation occurred between the 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels, as marked on the chart.

Notably, the index tested the upper band of this range four times during this period. Eventually in late-June, the index decisively broke above this key resistance and has sustained above it—signalling a potential trend continuation.

China’s equity market can cause significant impact to base metals such as copper, aluminium, and steel. A sustained breakout here could do well for global sentiment toward industrial metals and eventually equities in the metals space.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ 3578 crore
DII: ₹ -1,681 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ 3,578 crore
DII: ₹ -1,681 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -18,636 crore
DII: ₹ 25,471 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had neutral stance in previous trading session and have added 3k long contracts. Their net position now stand at 145k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 24800 strike to act as support, while the 25200 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

21 Jul 2025 05:32

_Morning Snippet:- 21st July 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty gave a break on downside in Friday’s session after trading within a 150 pt band for 3 consecutive day’s. A wider downside to sub 24k opens up on a closing below 24800 only, however a short term downside towards 24800 is open as the index closed below its intermediate support of 25000 only Friday.

_On weekly charts as well, India VIX ended at a fresh 52 week low, followed by formation of double doji pattern on daily charts. This could be taken as an early sign of a reversal forming on the volatility index._

Bank Nifty as well ended with a percent in cut on Friday, also closing below its support of 56750. Purely based on price action, the index is now open for a move to 55800 odd however higher than expected banking heavyweight earnings over the weekend could derail this move to sub 56k. On the flip side, 56750 which was Bank Nifty’s earlier support is now likely to act as resistance on the upside.

BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow while Nifty’s weekly expiry is set for coming Thursday.

Interesting Observation

As highlighted last week, the India VIX is currently hovering near its historical lower bound, a zone that has repeatedly preceded notable shifts in equity market volatility. As seen in the past, such low volatility phases are often followed by heightened market turbulence.

Interestingly, this turbulence doesn’t always manifest immediately (except 2018, 2020) but can unfold over a period of time. Importantly, this volatility doesn’t always skew in one direction. In several instances, equities have staged short-term rallies before reversing, pointing to a delayed yet persistent rise in market swings.

The key takeaway: periods of unusually low VIX often foreshadow months of instability. Rather than triggering an immediate reaction, the tremors of volatility tend to surface gradually — unfolding over several months following the low-volatility phase.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ 314 crore
DII: ₹ 2,103 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -6,734 crore
DII: ₹ 9,820 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -16,955 crore
DII: ₹ 21,893 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had bearish stance in previous trading session and have added 12k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 147k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 24800 strike to act as support, while the 25200 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

21 Jul 2025 05:12

U.S. overnight & India today:

Dow Jones fell 0.3% (down 142 points) amid renewed U.S.-EU tariff concerns following news that President Trump is pushing for a 15–20% minimum tariff on European imports.

S&P 500 finished flat (down 0.01%), after hitting an intraday record high earlier in the session.

Nasdaq rose 0.05%, booking a fresh record high—its 11th new high in 2025—buoyed by large-cap tech shares.

Market activity was muted despite robust economic data earlier in the week (strong retail sales, lower jobless claims) and positive earnings from major companies, but Friday saw some profit-taking and caution due to tariff worries.

Consumer sentiment improved in July, and inflation expectations eased; however, housing data disappointed as single-family home construction hit an 11-month low.

Netflix shares dropped 5% and American Express fell 2.3% after earnings, reflecting high investor expectations.

U.S. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar weakened; gold edged up slightly.

Investors focused on upcoming earnings and the impact of potential new trade policies as volatility is expected to persist into August

GIFT Nifty: -0.19%

Yes Bank: Net profit jumped 59% to ₹801 crore for the June quarter, driven mainly by higher non-core income. Net interest income rose 5.7% to ₹2,371 crore, supported by 5% growth in advances and a slight rise in net interest margin to 2.5%.

HDFC Bank: Consolidated net profit fell 1.31% to ₹16,258 crore in Q1 FY26. Standalone net profit grew to ₹18,155 crore from ₹16,174 crore a year ago.

ICICI Bank: Consolidated net profit increased 15.9% to ₹13,558 crore. Standalone net profit up 15.5% year-on-year to ₹12,768 crore.

JK Cement: Net profit soared 75.4% to ₹324.25 crore; revenue grew 19.4% to ₹3,352.53 crore.

Punjab & Sind Bank: Net profit rose 48% to ₹269 crore due to higher core income and lower bad debts; income grew to ₹3,379 crore.

The India Cements: Reported a net loss of ₹132.90 crore versus a profit of ₹58.47 crore a year ago.

AU Small Finance Bank: Net profit rose 16% to ₹581 crore; income increased to ₹5,189 crore.

Reliance Power: Returned to profit with ₹44.68 crore, reversing a ₹97.85 crore loss last year.

RBL Bank: Net profit fell 46% to ₹200 crore on weaker core income.

Union Bank of India: Net profit increased 12% to ₹4,116 crore; total income up to ₹31,791 crore.

Central Bank of India: Net profit climbed 33% to ₹1,169 crore; revenues rose to ₹10,374 crore.

Oriental Hotels: Net profit at ₹8.71 crore, up from ₹3.64 crore a year ago.

Reliance Industries: Reported record quarterly profit of ₹26,994 crore, up 78.3% year-on-year.

Reliance Retail: Profit after tax rose 28.3% to ₹3,271 crore, supported by robust revenue growth.

JSW Steel: Net profit more than doubled to ₹2,209 crore owing to lower expenses.

Bandhan Bank: Net profit declined 65% to ₹372 crore due to rising bad loans and lower core income.

Hindustan Zinc: Net profit dropped 4.7% to ₹2,234 crore as revenue fell.

Texmaco Rail: Commissioned a 10-MW captive solar power plant at Raipur facility.

Indian Overseas Bank: Net profit surged 76% to ₹1,111 crore; income at ₹8,866 crore for the quarter.

Replete Equities

18 Jul 2025 05:33

Morning Snippet - 18th July 2025.

Index Observation

In its weekly expiry session yesterday, Nifty broadly traded within its previous day’s range before ending lower in the last hour of trade losing 100 pts at close. For the past 3 days, index has been trading within a 150 pts. band after completing its initial target of 25k on downside. Overall view continues to remain as shared earlier - rangebound trade between 25000-25300 for this week.

_At 52 week low, India VIX has formed a dragonfly doji candlestick pattern, this could be taken as an early sign of a reversal forming on the volatility index - indicating for a rise from here on._

Bank Nifty also reeled under pressure in yesterday’s session ending below its 57000 mark. Only a close below 56750 is set to allow further downside on the index - derailing it from claiming back to its all time highs.

Nifty’s weekly closing on charts is due today, while BSE Sensex weekly expiry is scheduled for coming Tuesday.

Interesting Observation

The chart highlights an intermarket divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Nasdaq 100. Historically, Nasdaq had led the recovery post-2020, breaking above its pre-COVID highs well before DJIA. However, in the current setup, Nasdaq 100 has broken above its previous resistance zone (~16,000–17,000 range) and is trading at fresh all-time highs near 22,900, showing strong upward momentum.

In contrast, DJIA has returned to its previous all-time high levels but is yet to achieve a confirmed breakout above the 44,000–44,300 resistance zone. This hesitation at the top while the Nasdaq surges reflects a short-term divergence, which often resolves with broader market confirmation.

From an intermarket perspective, such divergences either indicate a sectoral rotation or a potential topping pattern. However, given the resilience and bullish structure shown across U.S. equities, a decisive breakout in Dow Jones will be crucial to validate broader market strength and confirm a fresh bull leg.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -3,694crore
DII: ₹ 2,820 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -7,048 crore
DII: ₹ 7,717 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -17,330 crore
DII: ₹ 19,790 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had bearish stance in previous trading session and have added 10k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 135k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25000 strike to act as support, while the 25500 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

17 Jul 2025 06:20

_Morning snippet :- 17 July 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty has reclaimed above its previous day’s high after taking support at the psychological 25000 mark. The index faced pressure on the first trading day of this week as it continued to slide with initial downside target of 25000 / 24800. While 25k has been met, fresh upside opens up only on further closing above 25325. So for the balance of this week, a rangebound trade between 25000 – 25300 is expected to unfold.

_India VIX has ended at a 52 week low closing - highlighting that the market is not expecting any heightened volatility in the near term. Option premiums are also relatively low due to drop in the VIX readings._

Bank Nifty continued to end at a 5 day closing high after it did not close below its immediate support of 56750 for 2 consecutive days despite being challenged in intraday trades - earlier this week. Only a close below 56750 is set to allow further downside on the index. Hence outperformance against Nifty and a slow path northwards remain open on card for the index to make a fresh all-time high.

NSE Nifty’s weekly expiry is scheduled for today while the weekly closing on charts is due on Friday.

Interesting Observation

As Bank Nifty continues to outperform the broader Nifty 50, a closer look within the banking space reveals a compelling development in the Nifty PSU Bank vs. Nifty Private Bank ratio chart.

The weekly ratio chart shows a clear breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a technically bullish formation. This breakout suggests growing relative strength in PSU banks compared to their private sector counterparts.

The ratio now appears to be heading toward a dual resistance zone, highlighting the potential for continued outperformance by PSU banks in the near term. This relative strength shift provides a tactical cue for traders and investors looking to position within the banking sector more effectively.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ -1,858 crore
DII: ₹ 1,223 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -3,354 crore
DII: ₹ 4,897 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -13,636 crore
DII: ₹ 16,969 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had neutral stance in previous trading session and have added 4k short contracts. Their net position now stand at 125k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25000 strike to act as support, while the 25500 strike remains a key resistance.

Replete Equities

16 Jul 2025 16:45

DIIs Step Up

Domestic investors are driving equity flows in 2025, marking the strongest DII participation since 2018.

So far this year, Indian equities have witnessed solid inflows from domestic institutional investors (DIIs), reflecting a renewed wave of confidence not seen in over six years. In contrast, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain net sellers, extending their bearish stance for a second consecutive year following a steep outflow in 2024.

Regards,
Nuvama Technical Research.

Replete Equities

16 Jul 2025 16:17

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Replete Equities

16 Jul 2025 05:45

_Morning Snippet :- 16th July 2025_

Index Observation

Nifty has reclaimed above its previous day’s high after taking support at the psychological 25000 mark. The index faced pressure on the first trading day of this week as it continued to slide with initial downside target of 25000 / 25800. While 25k has been met and fresh upside opens up only on further closing above 25325. So for the balance of this week, a rangebound trade between 25000 – 25300 is expected to unfold.

Bank Nifty on the other hand ended at a 4 day closing high after it did not close below its immediate support of 56750 for 2 consecutive days despite being challenged in intraday trades. Only a close below 56750 is set to allow further downside on the index. Hence outperformance against Nifty and a slow path northwards remain open on card for the index to make a fresh all time high.

NSE Nifty’s weekly expiry is scheduled for tomorrow while the weekly closing on charts is due on Friday.

Interesting Observation

Over the past 30 years, the S&P 500 has posted consecutive back-to-back gains in both May and June on 12 occasions. On looking at he returns in these instances, July returns have been positive 9 times and negative 3 times, implying that 75% of the times July had a positive outcome.

The average return in July during the positive years was +3.26%, while negative moves in July historically saw an average decline of -3.21%. This suggests that the S&P 500 in July tends to witness a meaningful move typically in the ±3% range when preceded by strength in the months of May and June. While S&P 500 is trading relatively flat so far, it will be interesting to see how the month ends for US equities given this historical range.

DERIVATIVES | Trade Setup

Cash Market Activity
FII: ₹ 120 crore
DII: ₹ 1,555 crore

Week-to-Date (WTD)

FII: ₹ -1,496 crore
DII: ₹ 3,342 crore

Month-to-Date (MTD)
FII: ₹ -11,778 crore
DII: ₹ 15,745 crore

F&O Cues

FIIs had neutral stance in previous trading session and have added 700 short contracts. Their net position now stand at 121k short contracts.

In the options segment, the 25000 strike to act as support, while the 25500 strike remains a key resistance.

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16 Jul 2025 05:44

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