Koin Research:
distribution amid “euphoric” BTC growth hints that hamsters are being led to the slaughter. Koin analysis before the most important Fed meeting confirms: big players do not share retail optimism
#BTCUSD rose to a three-week high of $61,300 on Tuesday, but the price is still in a sideways channel. The market doesn't know what to do... There is an important event ahead - the FOMC & FED meeting
The level of interest rates may have more impact on the cryptocurrency community, as well as bitcoin as an asset that is in high demand both on Wall Street and in the homes of retail traders.
Nevertheless, today's rate decision is a big event that carries a lot of weight regarding the outlook for crypto assets. What it means. The US Federal Reserve is ready to roll out its rate-cutting program, reducing borrowing costs for the first time in four years. However, the extent of the rate cut has not yet been disclosed.
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❗️ Remember:
Trading on days like this is very risky, and volatility depends on whether the Fed's decision and rhetoric are in line with market expectations. Don't guess, rather review your portfolio's risk profile and prepare a medium-term action plan for different scenarios.
👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Lower interest rates are ahead. A stalemate... ↑↓
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GOLD is consolidating between 2588 - 2562. But, buyers are not yet out of the game in the hope of continued growth. Then everything depends on the Fed. Welcome to the casino :)
At 18:30 the FOMC & FED will meet to decide whether to cut rates. 0.25% or 0.5%. A 0.5% Fed rate cut could send a mixed signal about the state of the US economy: the Fed's concern about the economy, and that a “soft landing” may not turn out to be so soft, but it would be a strong bullrun signal for gold. A weaker policy, could provoke an unpredictable reaction, which would temporarily disappoint investors. In such a case, a correction to 2550-2525-2500 may form (price may bounce from any zone shown on the chart) before a further global rally, as the general tone of the market is set by the global Central Bank's interest rate cuts.
Resistance levels: 2575, 2588, 2600, ...
Support levels: 2561, 2550, 2530
It is difficult to say about expectations, as the uncertainty is high due to the fact that the overall situation is stalemate, either this way or that way. I recommend to refrain from trading on the news and wait for the volatility to decrease. The trading range for today is very wide....
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#GOLD gold prices rose to a record high on Monday-Tuesday as traders felt a rush of energy and willingness to bet ahead of this week's super-duper important event. The reason for the rise was the belief that the Fed may go for a larger interest rate cut of 0.5%
The alternative could be a smaller, random and uninteresting 0.25% cut. Gold's rise is largely built on the first option, where rates are cut from a 23-year high of 5.5% to 5%. With that in mind, there is a very real chance that Fed officials will decide to start small and implement a quarter-point rate cut.
The prospect of more aggressive rate cuts has lowered dollar valuations, leading gold higher. As a zero-yielding asset, gold becomes more attractive when rates shift lower as it reduces the opportunity cost of owning the precious metal.
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#GBPUSD
From the very beginning of Monday, the GBPUSD made a quick spurt upwards, aiming for the 2024 record of $1.3270. On Tuesday, the growth met some resistance: the rate fell from Monday's high of $1.3218 to $1.3205. What is ahead for the pair?
Much depends on this week's events - the US Federal Reserve is set to make its first interest rate cut in four years. The unwinding of the tight monetary policy of the American central bank is fraught with serious consequences for the US dollar. And investors are already on the move, trying to plan ahead to unload their dollar assets. Hence the current dollar weakness across the board.
The dollar will not generate as much return on deposits and markets may look elsewhere (currencies or trading instruments) for competitive returns. At the moment we are seeing a move away from the dollar and towards alternative currencies such as sterling. But so is gold.
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💡 Ideas For #OPUSDT 🔴
📈 Double top. How far can we fall?
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OPUSDT cannot get out of the bears' clutches. The market continues to form its movement under the pressure of the downtrend. There are important events ahead that could shake up the trading community...
Bitcoin, as well as the rest of the cryptocurrency market continues to decline. Cryptocurrencies are not reacting to Trump's speech in any way, but traders are waiting for the U.S. rate cut in the hope that the encouraging data (0.5% decrease) will increase interest. But the 0.25% decrease will add weight to the bearish paw, which can only strengthen the already current decline.
Technically OPUSDT is forming a global bearish trend, the price is not allowed to update the local highs. The last retest ended with the formation of a double top, which led to a sharp decline.
Resistance levels: 1.469, 1.510, 1.544
Support levels: 1.431, 1.393, 1.3
The 1.431 area is holding the market back from falling, but a strong pre-breakdown accumulation is forming near this area with a target to continue falling. Watch out for the 1.430 trigger, a break of this zone will give downward momentum
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#CRYPTO
Leverage levels in crypto are rising rapidly across all major crypto exchanges, reflecting traders' growing appetite for risk. Simultaneously, whales are taking advantage of the current rebound in BTC to lock in some profits. Also, the volume of transactions in BTC continues to fall, which is not yet a sign of a sustainable rebound
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#USDJPY
A double bottom pattern has emerged on the daily timeframe as price falls to a low that previously acted as support. What matters now is who will take the upper hand - the bears or the bulls?
Friday's drop ended the second consecutive losing week for the currency pair. The Japanese central bank appears set to continue raising interest rates, making the yen more attractive. On the other hand, the prospect of lower interest rates in the U.S. is eroding the value of the dollar. The result? The stars have aligned in favor of the bears....
The US Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates this week for the first time in four years. The U.S. benchmark rate currently sits at 5.5%, but expectations point to a cut in the range of 25 basis points to 50 basis points. Prepare for sharp trading volatility ahead of Wednesday's rate cut announcement by the Fed
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💡 Ideas For #EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸
📈 Resistance Retest. A rebound or a breakthrough?
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EURUSD is testing the resistance of the local correction, and instead of the expected rebound, I am waiting for an attempt of a breakout with the aim of further growth to 1.12757 on the background of the expected fall of the dollar...
There is important news ahead that traders have been waiting for months. A rate cut. And the question is no longer “when?”, but “by how much?”. 25 basis points or 50 ... But before that traders will have to endure Retail Sales, CPI, FOMC, which may also have an impact on both the market and the Fed.
Technically, the focus is on the resistance of the range, 1.112. The market is likely to fight for this zone, a correction is possible, but a gradual retracement and retest will increase the chances of a breakout. If the bulls hold 1.112, it will open the way towards ATH!
Resistance levels: 1.112, 1.12
Support levels: 1.1099, 1.1072
Globally the trend is bullish, on D1 the price is coming out of the correction phase and continues the upward movement. The news may have a big impact on the market, which will shape both medium and long term prospects... Targets are indicated on the chart
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❗️🗣Stand by and fasten your seat belts!
Important news on rates, inflation and general US policy is ahead!
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The US DOLLAR INDEX held its own early Wednesday, not hinting at any movement to one side or the other. Ahead is a serious test not only for the dollar, but also for the entire Forex market - the interest rate decision in the US.
Today at 18:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to start the rate cut cycle by reducing borrowing costs. Jay Powell will announce at a press conference how much rates will be cut. The world's most expensive voice will move trillions of dollars, reporting a figure expected to be either a 25-point or half-point cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the consensus forecast of traders and investors indicates a 60% chance of a larger 50 basis point rate cut, with 40% of participants leaning toward a smaller cut.
Either way, refrain from trading on the news, high volatility can tear you...
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All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve meeting today. What you need to know?
📈 Predictions:
64% - down 0.5%
36% - down 0.25%.
The market reaction may be ambiguous: such an important event was preceded by “euphoric growth” of the markets. There is every reason to believe that the decline is already fully embedded in the price and the “Sell the news” scenario is waiting for us .
Important: Many “experts” are too optimistic in their forecasts. A rate cut does not guarantee immediate and sustained growth, especially with a 0.5% cut. It is more likely to be a cause for serious economic concern....
Moreover, historically, such periods have often coincided with localized tops. In the last two major rate cut cycles, the S&P 500 lost up to 50%, but that didn't happen overnight either. Be on the lookout.
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💡Ideas For NZDUSD 🇦🇺🇺🇸
📈 Resistance Retest. Fed meeting ahead...
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NZDUSD is set to go higher. The price is breaking the local resistance within the uptrend. There is an important event ahead, which can affect the price quite strongly...
On D1 the market is hinting at bullish prospects, a retest of the global resistance is forming, which divides the market into 2 parts...
Traders are waiting for the FOMC and FED meeting at 18:00, where officials will decide on the interest rate cut. The main question is 0.5% or 0.25%. The first will be a strong bullish signal for the currencies, the dollar will accelerate its downward movement on this background. The second value may slightly disappoint traders and the market reaction will be ambiguous. In any case, the general course of rate cuts sets the main tone in the market, it remains to wait only for specific numbers.
Support levels: 0.61528, 0.61244
Resistance levels: 0.62095, 0.62544
Technically, the bullish trend continues, as hinted by the local situation on the chart. Traders believe in the favorable background. I believe that the Fed's decision will strengthen the general market trends and in this case the currency pair will head towards the upper boundary of the channel
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Market uncertainty about the size of the Fed rate cut (0.25% or 0.5%) is now at an all-time high.
PS: I realize that there is too much mentioning of the rate and the Fed on my part, but at the moment this is probably the most important event of this year :). It is possible to build both medium and long term strategies in trading and investing based on these data ;).
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❗️ Ahead of the news at 12:30 GMT!
High volatility is possible, but I don't think the reaction will be strong as traders are focused on tomorrow and the FOMC & Fed meeting
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Is it worth going up against knives? No trading history
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GOLD is consolidating after a rally - a positive sign of an interested buyer. The focus is on the resistance at 2589, as well as on the lower boundary of consolidation ahead of the data on retail prices
In the short (mid) term, gold may form a small correction before a further rally, which will be triggered by lower interest rates. BUT! A 0.5% decline will be a strong signal for the dollar to fall and gold to rise, but a 0.25 decline will be partly disappointing information for investors who may react rather unpredictably (if there is a negative market reaction, it will be short-term as the overall tone of the markets is set by the actual rate cut cycle).
Later today, the US retail sales report will be released, which may give a short-term impact in the market before the main event of September, tomorrow....
Resistance levels: 2588, 2600, 2615, 2625
Support levels: 2575, 2563, 2500
At the moment it is possible to trade from the borders of the consolidation range. But high volatility on the background of news can provoke a breakout of this or that border. Accordingly, the resistance breakthrough may cause the continuation of the rally to 2610-2625. Break of support will send the price to liquidity zones before further growth
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#BTCUSD dipped below the 60K mark early Monday morning after failing to hold above the weekend high. The main event of the week that traders are keeping an eye on will happen on Wednesday when the US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates. The key question is: 25 or 50?
The US central bank will decide how much to cut interest rates, and this decision can shake up not only the cryptocurrency space, but also the global markets as a whole. On the one hand, there is the option of a 25 basis point cut. The other option is more significant, by half a point.
Bitcoin and digital assets are increasingly correlated to macro factors, so be sure to protect your portfolio from volatility as the market approaches a rate decision
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Is it worth going up against knives? No trading history
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GOLD continues to renew its high without any strong pullbacks. Buyers continue to behave quite aggressively before strong news. But everywhere there are risks and BUT!!!
There is a lot of news ahead before the important Fed meeting on interest rates, where they are likely to be cut. The question of “by how much” remains open, as weaker data (25 basis points) could trigger an unexpected reaction in the market that could lead to a correction....
But before that we have to face retail sales, CPI, FOMC.... Volatility will be elevated in the week ahead....
BUT! For intraday trading right now, there is such a problem as lack of history. You need to build a strategy from the general technical and fundamental background, as well as from local levels and key zones. BUT! The market is strongly bullish and before the news there can be both profit-taking and continuation of the rally....
Resistance levels: 2588, 2600, 2610
Support levels: 2577, 2573, 2563
The local range 2588 - 2577 is being formed. Before the news, traders may go into a consolidation phase, but we should keep an eye on the dollar, if it starts its downward flight, gold will react accordingly. Accordingly, a breakout of the local range boundaries may trigger a move to one side or the other.
REMEMBER! The market is bullish! Selling without proper reasons is the same as going against knives
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👑 Ideas For #XAUUSD / #GOLD
📈 Aggressive buyers... Ahead of PPI
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GOLD updates the high to 2586, forming a local resistance, which acts as some trigger zone for the continuation of growth. But, Friday's close is neutral, which may influence a correction to support before the news.
There is a lot of news in the coming week: Core Retail Sales, CPI, FOMC, FED,... The focus is on Fed Interest Rfte Decision, where officials have to decide on whether to cut interest rates in the US. From a global perspective this is a bullish scenario for gold, but it depends on whether the rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50, the former could upset investors....
The dollar is testing a strong support and is one step away from entering a new range of 100.6 - 94.6. Quite a wide channel, now imagine the potential of the markets, with the index falling so much.
Resistance levels: 2586, 2600
Support levels: 2572, 2563, 2550
In anticipation of the news, traders may go into a phase of profit taking, which may form a small correction in gold (It is also the interest of whales, to cheapen before the growth...).
- A break of resistance will be a trigger for the continuation of growth.
- From the support there can be either a false breakdown or a continuation of the fall to the next zone
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