Demand:
- Buyers (more and more people in the work get into crypto/blockchain/bitcoin...)
Smart people know It is undervalued and decide to Hold
Crowds continue buy/sell/sell/buy for 2% profit and at some point It is failed to go down because of supply shock scheme.
Finally It will come back to its fair value then parabolic value.
Fundamental says “hey don't flip flop nothing changed “
Price low tf reaction “hey carefully potential wicks”
Please understand the battle in mind
If you have free cash now and are considering which one is better to invest in midterm(Stocks/Gold/Bitcoin/estate ...) ?
Bitcoin is obviously undervalued below 66666.
There are many participants in crypto industry:
1- retail miners
2- pro miners
3 - holders
4 - High leverage traders
5- Big fund ( Microstrategy, Blackrock, Grayscale ...)
6 - Owner of exchanges
When BTC is undervalued some will gain other will lose
When BTC is back to fair valuation some will gain other will lose
Be sure you are in right position.
as my understanding, after Halving, Electricity cost to mine a bitcoin is 60k
Total production cost to mine a bitcoin is 100k (including Electricity + Factory + Labor ... others)
So if I am a retail miner, my mining business could not get profit if BTC price is below 100k
So I would rather hold BTC than mine Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is heavily undervalued after Halving.
I am really trying to understand the economics of public mining stocks. I am picking #Riot to focus on.
Riot is down big, but still worth 2.1 Billion USD. That's 34,000 Bitcoin at current valuation.
In Febuary, Riot mined 418 Bitcoin. With the halving, thats a rate of about 209 Bitcoin per month, or 2500 Bitcoin per year.
Now, lets assume they don't buy any new miners, and they have completely free electricity and zero personel costs.
Well for the next cycle, they mine 10K Bitcoin.
The next one, 5K Bitcoin
Then 2.5K Bitcoin
In other words, they only ever mine 20K Bitcoin.
And that's assuming costs are ZERO, which they clearly aren't.
So why would anybody choose RIOT over the 34,000 Bitcoin?
I may have made a mistake here. Riot investors, help me out. Or weigh in if you have an opinion.
#BTC price almost unchanged in 40 days but few alts already dropped 70% from top.
Alts => game of short term speculation
A New cycle after Halving
- Miners produce less daily => Supply decreasing
- If BTC remains low Miners will Hold & wait till higher price or they shutdown their business because there is no reason to sell with negative PnL => Supply decreasing
- Sellers get exhausted/ buyers get more aggressive because the new cycle = human psychological reset => Demand increasing
- ETF demand => Demand increasing
Supply < Demand
=> Price up
If Supply < Demand for a long time but price does not match and react => at some point => It will cause Supply Shock Liquidity => Price UP aggressively
News/media is just secondary. They can buy news/media to suit the context. The root value is Satoshi created the perfect supply/demand model for Bitcoin.
If a thing is produced in factory with total cost 100k$ | electricity cost 60k$
Everyone is trading it at 60k$
So it is obviously undervalued
Spot Buying #BTC #SOL #ETH
SL 15%
60k is the level of Electricity cost level
Stick on plan.
- The bad case: BTC might take whole summer to move like crabs until you get bored and leave market. It takes off when Q3/Q4 comes.
- The good case: bulls don't have to wait too long.
Runes/Ordinals/BRC20 is speculation game on the way BTC back to fair value.
Study it. Don't miss it.
If you suppose Bitcoin is a product and the total cost to produce this product is 100k$
Why it is being traded at 60k now ? lmao is it heavily undervalued ?
There are 2 cases here:
1/ mining stocks are overvalued
2/ at current rate after Halving Bitcoin is heavily undervalued
Hype projects like #ORDI will have another run after June.
Patiently wait buy zone ~ 20$ in May or June.