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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Bonsai Partners on Ubiquiti $UI US
Thesis: Ubiquiti's disruptive pricing strategy and strong profitability provide a clear path to compounded growth, making it an exciting long-term opportunity
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#58) https://t.co/PM0s72HAsD
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Stock Analysis Compilation
YCG Investments on Fair Isaac Corp $FICO US
Thesis: FICO's strong pricing power and underappreciated earnings potential make it an attractive investment for long-term returns
(Extract from their Q2 letter, link to the full analysis in SAC#58) https://t.co/b5vrpX4c1a
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Librarian Capital
"London and New York cocoa prices in rare divergence as shortages bite" (FT) $HSY
London prices lower due to a stock of older, less favored cocoa
Also, "many" HFs were shorting cocoa in NY and now forced to close their bets
EU deforestation rules will reduce supply from Jan-25
London and New York cocoa prices in rare divergence as shortages bite https://t.co/HNeKpybGOu
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Hidden Value Gems
More extreme weather is just on of the factors behind the rising pressure on the grid (others include renewables, electrification and data centres).
Evidence of the need to invest more in the grid 👇
"SPP (US grid operator) rarely signaled the potential for power shortages before 2019. Between 2019 and 2023, it recorded more than 3,000 hours during which supplies were tight enough to issue advisory or emergency operating notices."
“We’re talking probably at least over the next five years that we’re going to continue to experience these challenges,” CEO said. “It takes years to build transmission, and it’s taking even longer now to build generation.”
$PRY.IM $ENR.DE
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Librarian Capital
"UK regulator pushes banks to give savers better value even as rates fall" (FT) $LLOY $NWG
"The announcement came a year after the FCA outlined a 14-point plan to push for banks to improve how they passed on recent interest rate increases to consumers"
https://t.co/wjKNp84AcL
Pete Davies (Lansdowne) on UK banks (LVIC, 7-Jun)
"I think UK banks, unhedged, make about a 30% Return on Equity at the moment, and yet the market assumes when the hedges fall off they will make 13-14% ... they are trading at just above book value"
$LLOY $NWG https://t.co/4sxFZDdQpH
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Quiver Quantitative
Tucker Carlson has said he’s done using ZYN, since the makers are big Kamala Harris donors.
I took a look at our data, and this seems like a bit of an exaggeration:
Have not seen ZYN PACs donate any money to Harris.
Have seen employees donate ~$20K.
https://t.co/RA7Q0LxMw8
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Stock Analysis Compilation
River Oaks Capital on Medical Facilities $DR US
Medical Facilities offers strong upside with aggressive share buybacks, cost reductions, and high cash returns to shareholders, all while nearing debt-free status
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/tkgobGvOf0
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Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #89
Jeff Bezos on scale and shareholder value https://t.co/ROwcmjkO6E
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Stock Analysis Compilation
VGI Partners on CME $CME US
With a near-monopoly on U.S. interest rate derivatives trading, CME’s growth potential is tied to rising Treasury markets and increased volatility, making it a critical player in market infrastructure
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/SD1L0dDC69
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 UPDATE: Trump Media stock has now fallen 83% since Marjorie Taylor Greene made a purchase of ~$50K.
Full portfolio holdings up on Quiver. https://t.co/Pq0CvzbvJ3
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Having Trouble Finding Undervalued Quality Compounders w Market Near Highs❓
Here Are 7 Reasonably Valued Quality Stocks | P/E | EPS Growth Estimates | LTM ROIC 💸
💳 Visa $V
•NTM P/E: 27.24x
•10-Year Mean: 28.17x
•2024E: $9.92 (13.1% YoY)
•2025E: $11.07 (11.6% YoY)
•2026E: $12.54 (13.3% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 35.7%
🖨️ ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 29.39x
•10-Year Mean: 31.10x
•2024E: $18.83 (-5.4% YoY)
•2025E: $29.54 (56.9% YoY)
•2026E: $34.34 (16.3% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 39.7%
💵 Mastercard $MA
•NTM P/E: 32.81x
•10-Year Mean: 31.42x
•2024E: $14.32 (16.8% YoY)
•2025E: $16.57 (15.7% YoY)
•2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 65.7%
✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
•NTM P/E: 21.78x
•10-Year Mean: 26.80x
•2024E: $174.59 (14.7% YoY)
•2025E: $200.86 (15.0% YoY)
•2026E: $235.73 (17.4% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 48.4%
📦 Amazon $AMZN
•P/OCF: 18.13x
•10-Year Mean: 24.25x
•2024E: $11.20 (38.2% YoY)
•2025E: $13.22 (18.0% YoY)
•2026E: $16.53 (25.0% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 13.8%
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•NTM P/E: 19.96x
•10-Year Mean: 23.59x
•2024E: $7.64 (31.7% YoY)
•2025E: $8.71 (14.0% YoY)
•2026E: $10.02 (15.0% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 30.9%
👜 Moët Hennessy Louis V $LVMH $MC
•NTM P/E: 19.43x
•10-Year Mean: 23.95x
•2024E: €29.71 (-2.0% YoY)
•2025E: €32.86 (10.6% YoY)
•2026E: €35.66 (8.5% YoY)
•LTM ROIC: 19.1%
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Investing visuals
Business battle: Intel $INTC vs AMD $AMD 🥊✨
If you had to choose one to invest in for the next decade, which would it be?👇
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Greenhaven Road on Burford $BUR LN
Burford’s $6.2B judgment against Argentina, with interest accruing daily, presents a highly attractive risk/reward opportunity as the company works through its backlog of cases
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/GX7LSFfQE7
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Librarian Capital
No real answers to this - I don't think there is one
That's the point. An interest rate differential of 25 bps makes no difference to business fundamentals
Trading stocks on your view of rate decisions is betting on being right on TWO things - the decision and how market reacts
Suppose you and a friend were to meet a deity
The deity offers to give you each a special power:
Both of you can predict Fed rate a year from now
You will be accurate to 25bps; your friend to 50bps
Equities only; no derivatives
Can you make more money than your friend? How?
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Smithson on Melexis $MELE BB
Melexis’ low-cost, high-functionality sensors are poised to ride the wave of growing automotive and smart technology demand
(Extract from their Q1 letter) https://t.co/dixSsuUOTf
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App Economy Insights
🇺🇸 How America Spends Money
Just like a company, the US government has financial statements:
💰 Money comes in (mainly through taxes).
💸 Money goes out (to fund various programs).
Check out our full breakdown. 👇
https://t.co/i56CLKGImw
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Representative Josh Gottheimer has disclosed a purchase of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals stock, $CRNX.
He appears to have bought in the day before they announced the submission of a new drug application to the FDA.
Gottheimer is the first politician we have seen trade this stock.
It's a fairly small company, with a market cap of just over $4B.
We'll be watching this.
Follow along for updates, or track politicians' portfolios on Quiver.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Regal Partners on Ferrotec Holdings $6890 JP
Ferrotec’s strong position in the semiconductor supply chain, paired with upcoming IPOs of Chinese subsidiaries, presents a compelling growth story
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/0xflMK1ScS
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Librarian Capital
"Campari’s Top Investor to Buy Up to $111M in Shares, Citing Market Value" (WSJ)
"Lagfin owned 51.4% of Campari’s $CPR ordinary shares and held 82.5% of its voting rights"
https://t.co/8oBP4USxw6 https://t.co/vRTyCL8UaA
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Stock Analysis Compilation
The London Company on Bruker $BRKR US
Bruker’s innovative instruments and strong capital allocation create a compelling growth story driven by life sciences and proteomics research
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/Xq2Embw6am
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Librarian Capital
Capital cycle, US beauty specialty retail edition
Ulta Beauty $ULTA: "More than 1,000 new points of distribution opened in the last 3 years .... More than 80% of our stores have been impacted by 1 or more competitive opening ... with more than ½ impacted by multiple" (FY24Q2) https://t.co/KWMBRhkeAx
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Librarian Capital
"Retail is a very tough business. Practically every great chain-store operation that has been around long enough eventually gets in trouble and is hard to fix"
- Charlie Munger, in Alice Schroeder's "The Snowball"
cc: $ULTA https://t.co/jlnm0d10l9
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Librarian Capital
Ulta Beauty $ULTA: Easy to forget shares were already in a ditch before COVID-19 hit US in 2020
Comp sales growth went from +11% to 5% in 2017-19
Shares fell nearly ~30% in H2 2019 https://t.co/vXnQoimkpE
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #10 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Baron Capital / Conestoga / Davis fund / Donville Kent / Edgepoint / Equam / FPA / Harris Associates / Legacy Ridge / Munro / Warden Capital https://t.co/k3Ou8mZANl
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Insider Trading Alert
Energy Vault Holdings, NRGV, sees first major insider buy in years:
🔹CEO: ~$261,000 purchase on Sept 13
🔻Company received NYSE non-compliance notice for trading below $1 on Sept 13, with 6 months to regain compliance. https://t.co/AYruU4Emp7
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
High non-interest bearing liabilities in Invested Capital for ROIC (Tutorial):
$LLY https://t.co/VfbCi7T86f
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Librarian Capital
$HAYPP: I am disappointed to be misunderstood by so many of you, especially as we have been publishing our thoughts on Tobacco stocks since 2019 https://t.co/b9FW2Hk2im
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 20 Stocks ROIC >20% & Have More Cash and Equivalents to Long-Term Debt 💵
📈 Nvidia $NVDA
🏢 NVR Inc $NVR
🚗 Copart $CPRT
🤖 Fortinet $FTNT
🔩 Fastenal $FAST
💵 Paychex $PAYX
📐 Graco Inc $GGG
🚿 A O Smith $AOS
☁️ Microsoft $MSFT
🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG
📲 Taiwan Semi $TSM
🖨️ Lam Research $LRCX
💽 ASML Holding $ASML
🎥 Meta Platforms $META
💾 Applied Materials $AMAT
✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
🏥 Medpace Holdings $MEDP
🫀 Edwards Lifesciences $EW
🚛 Old Dominion Freight $ODFL
🧬 Vertex Pharmaceuticals $VRTX
#stocks #investing
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Librarian Capital
J Stern & Co World Stars Global Equity performance
L5Y +14.1% p.1. (gross) vs. MSCI World +13.1%
Aug YTD +19.0% vs. MSCI World +16.7%
YTD biggest contributor: IT
YTD biggest detractor: Consumer Staples
Consumer names include Pernod Ricard $RI, Diageo $DGE, L'Oréal $OR https://t.co/Dg2AkprBy5
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Hidden Value Gems
Such a weird statement with all due respect to the company.
$GAW.L https://t.co/uVIQ6NhbvE
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