4
https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Librarian Capital
RT @MattBinder: over the weekend X / Twitter took the @America handle from the original user who registered it
the handle now belongs to Elon Musk and his Super PAC set up to support Donald Trump
here's everything we know: https://t.co/ciIaAaPQQ5
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: In last month’s post I stated: “Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment”
Since then, $ASML is up +10% ✅ … is $ASML STILL A BUY❓…👇🏽
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Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth to be:
2024E: $20.68 (-5.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $32.04 (54.9% YoY)
2026E: $37.54 (17.2% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $37.54 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $1126.20💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $1088.66💵 … ~13.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $1052.12💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $1013.58💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $976.04💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 27x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $832.41💵 $ASML STILL appears to be a good consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
However, today we have less of a margin of safety given that we’ll need to rely on 27x (rather than 25x at last month’s $753💵 price)
Given its volatility, it’s always wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."
A sober valuation analysis on $ASML 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•10-Year Mean: 31.11x
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $5.38B
•Long-Term Debt: $4.94B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 34x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 17.5%
•2020: 21.6%
•2021: 43.8%
•2022: 48.0%
•2023: 48.7%
•LTM: 39.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 49.0%
•2022: 59.4%
•2023: 70.4%
•LTM: 48.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $7.22B
•2023: $30.42B
•CAGR: 15.46%
FREE CASH FLOW*
• $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isn’t necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the company’s value
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $3.17
•2023: $21.65
•CAGR: 21.18%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 424.90M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 393.55M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.3%, $ASML inc[...]
Librarian Capital
Remember Dido Harding, after messes at TalkTalk and COVID Track & Trace, applied to head NHS England?
Even the Tories didn't go for it
Sharon White, after messes at Ofcom and John Lewis, now eyes the Cabinet Secretary job
FT gave her fawning lunch done by self-described "good friend", so they likely think she will get it
John Lewis chair Sharon White: ‘I always ask: what’s the upside?’ https://t.co/5XTTiqE0Vj
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Librarian Capital
"The smaller the liquor bottle, the bigger the alcohol problem" (h/t yannispappas on Threads)
Similar logic also motivates minimum pack rules for cigarettes
In the US, it is illegal to sell cigarettes in packs of fewer than 20
(21 C.F.R. § 1140.16(b)) cc: $MO $BATS $IMB https://t.co/hoE5EnZzs6
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Librarian Capital
UK banks now obligated to reimburse fraud victims
New Payment Systems Regulator rules start today
Reimbursement of up to £85k in 5 business days
Banks need to prove customer "complicit in the fraud" "grossly negligence" to not reimburse
Covers UK-to-UK payments
$LLOY $NWG https://t.co/HszK9hg1nV
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Hidden Value Gems
Happy Monday! Have a great week ahead!
Quote of the day #102
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Librarian Capital
Fundsmith comments on mgmt. always interesting
Exited Diageo $DGE in Aug-24 after LAC over-stocking
Exited Estée Lauder $EL in Aug-23 after China blow-up
Exited Adobe $ADBE in Mar-23 after
Exited PayPal $PYPL in Dec-22 after COVID bubble
All at new multi-year lows at the time https://t.co/q73YoYMEIC
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Librarian Capital
Terry Smith does not like the FTSE 100 index
"An index that’s dominated by banks, utilities, commodities and energy is not likely to produce a lot of high-quality companies"
"If you’re thinking about why the UK is lowly rated compared to the rest of the world ... https://t.co/p92VuJlMWK
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Librarian Capital
Diageo $DGE executive team in 2022 annual report
CEO, CFO not listed here; CFO then, Lavanya Chandrashekar, since exited
Head of L&C, Alvaro Cardenas, in that role since Jan-21, still holds that role
Soraya Benchikh not here; she will appear once in 2023 before return to $BATS https://t.co/00inuNjbr0
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Guinness GI on Enphase $ENPH US
Thesis: Enphase’s nimble manufacturing and diversified solar product offerings make it a compelling investment as solar energy demand continues to grow globally.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/GWhUpetsX6
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Librarian Capital
EU house prices & rents (2010-24Q2) *
House prices fell in 2022 after Rusian energy shock
Rent growth accelerated slightly since 2022
* weighted, so ~50% from Germany, France, Italy https://t.co/SrwUOPAolG
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Investing visuals
RT @ZeevyInvesting: 10 Business Battles Super Thread!🥊🧵
A side-by-side comparison of iconic duos, sector leaders, and lifelong rivals.
Who’s your favorite?👇
#1 Visa $V versus Mastercard $MA: A unique duopoly in the digital payments industry 💳
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Tencent $TCEHY US
Thesis: Tencent’s gaming pipeline, advertising growth, and strategic market position in China make it a solid play as regulatory headwinds subside.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/0aI3VDjaSs
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Startup Archive
Keith Rabois on the “one person, one problem" framework he learned from Peter Thiel
"Peter Thiel used to insist at PayPal that every single person could only do exactly one thing. And we all rebelled. You feel like it's insulting to be asked to do just one thing.
But Peter would enforce this pretty strictly. He'd basically say: 'I will not talk to you about anything else except for this one thing that I've assigned to you. I don't want to hear about how great you're doing in this other area. Just focus until you conquer this one problem.'...
The insight behind this is that most people will solve problems that they understand how to solve. Roughly speaking, they will solve B+ problems instead of A+ problems.
A+ problems are high-impact problems for your company but they're difficult--you don't wake up in the morning with a solution to them, so you tend to procrastinate...
If you have a company that's always solving B+ problems, you'll never create the breakthrough idea because no one is spending 100% of their time banging their head against the wall every day until they solve it"
Video source: @ycombinator (2014)
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Startup Archive
RT @filippkowalski: “Go hard at it. [...] Launch your thing. Just start doing stuff - and even if you don’t know what to do, just do anything, because action will produce information and it’ll help you get to the right thing.”
Yes 💯
Brian Armstrong explains how he built Coinbase on nights and weekends while working at Airbnb
Brian first advises those who are currently employed to not build your project on company hours or on your company laptop:
“If you build it on company time or on the company hardware, the company probably owns the IP.”
Then he describes his schedule for working on Coinbase while still working full-time at Airbnb.
“I would often work [at Airbnb] until 7pm. I’d come home, eat dinner, and then I would work from 8pm to midnight. I would do that maybe 3-4 days a week on weekdays. And then on the weekend I’d work Sunday afternoon for 7-8 hours.”
Brian did this consistently for about a year and a half until Coinbase was far enough along for him to get seed funding from Y Combinator.
“It sucked. I mean I was tired after the full day of work [at Airbnb]. But this is where determination comes in… At that moment in time, I was in my late 20s, and I was like, ‘I really want to try to build something important in the world.’”
When asked how he maintained friendships during this time, Brian replies:
“I was pretty intense about it. I would say I sacrificed friendships for it. It’s not like I was just never responding to people, but I’ve seen this happen to various people. They get to a certain point in their life. Sometimes they turn a certain age where they thought they would have more done by then or maybe someone in their family passes away and they’re like, Oh my god, time is finite. It’s precious. And something happens where they’re like, ‘I’m going to get this done, no matter the cost.’”
Brian tells those out there who might be in a similar situation:
“Go hard at it. Finish your book. Launch your thing. Just start doing stuff - and even if you don’t know what to do, just do anything, because action will produce information and it’ll help you get to the right thing.”
Video source: @StevenBartlett (2022)
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reased its EPS by ~7.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 51.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 30.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 26.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.87 (-5.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $33.07 (58.5% YoY)
2026E: $38.61 (16.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ASML ends 2026 with $38.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $1158.30💵 … ~21.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $1119.69💵 … ~19.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $1081.08💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
27x P/E: $1042.47💵 … ~15.8% CAGR
26x P/E: $1003.86💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $965.25💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume greater or equal to 25x earnings (well below its 10-year mean & justified given its quality & growth rate)
However we should be aware that, while $ASML is a wide-moat business, we’ll be relying on fairly aggressive growth estimates in 2025 & these kinds of estimates should always be taken with caution
Today at $753💵 $ASML appears to be a great consideration for investment, although it will come with extreme volatility
Also, we have some margin of safety by relying on 25x (rather than 30x)
Given its volatility, however, it’s wise to piece into $ASML — this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to “win-win” if the stock moves up or down in the short-term 💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Given the $SAVE bankruptcy discussions today, here’s a friendly reminder WHY Airlines are the WORST type of investment you can make 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
WHY YOU SHOULD AVOID INVESTING IN AIRLINES ⚠️
First, let’s take a look at the last 5-year returns of 4 major airlines:
1) $AAL -67% (American Airlines)
2) $UAL -32% (United Airlines)
3) $JBLU -63% (JetBlue)
4) $DAL -34% (Delta)
Why do airlines post such poor results for investors? It’s simple. On average, here are the economics of the sector:
COST OF CAPITAL: ~8%
RETURN ON CAPITAL (ROIC): ~4%
Would you want to own a business that pays $8 just to receive $4 in return?
Of course not. Airlines BLEED MONEY EVERY DAY.
As Warren Buffett asserted in his 2007 Shareholder Letter $BRK.B $BRK.A:
“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think AIRLINES ... The airline industry's demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable.
Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989.”
#stocks #investing
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Startup Archive
WhatsApp founder Jan Koum explains why he charged $1 for the product to intentionally slow growth
Sam Altman recalls:
“I remember in 2011, people would say WhatsApp is never going to work because they charge a dollar and it’s a viral app and that’s just going to kill it right there.”
But Jan explains that charging $1 was a very intentional lever WhatsApp used to slow growth:
“I know it sounds very counterintuitive - why would you want to slow your growth? We wanted to slow our growth so we could better support our existing users. So we could build servers that don’t crash. So that we could build a product that doesn’t drop messages. So that we could answer their customer support emails.”
A lot of people told Jan and the WhatsApp team this was a bad strategy, but Jan compares it to what Facebook did in the early days: “They were doing colleges only, and they weren’t open to the entire world.”
WhatsApp wanted to do the same thing:
“We wanted to make sure that we have our existing users happy, and that when people sign up, they have a great experience, and that the app works, and it’s fast, and the servers are up and running all the time. And I think that worked for us because we were really able to focus on the product.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2014)
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Librarian Capital
Re-posting list of Fundsmith exits with proof of dates
Exited Diageo $DGE in Aug-24 after LAC over-stocking
Exited Estée Lauder $EL in Aug-23 after China blow-up
Exited Adobe $ADBE in Mar-23 after Figma deal
Exited PayPal $PYPL in Dec-22 after COVID bubble
(Thread) https://t.co/3u89oZMOlO
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Criteo $CRTO US
Thesis: Criteo’s pivot to the retail media space positions it for strong growth, making it an undervalued opportunity in the digital advertising sector
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/A16teliWvf
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Hidden Value Gems
“Corporate insiders have been reluctant to snap up shares of their companies. Of all US companies with a transaction by an officer or director in July, only 15.7% reported net buying of company shares. That was the lowest level in the past 10 years. The figure ticked up to 25.7% in August before falling to 21.9% in September, well below the 10-year average of 26.3%.”
via @WSJ
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Librarian Capital
Terry Smith to people who buy stocks for "income"
"When they pay you a dividend ... Do you think the money comes lowered through the clouds on a stick?
It comes from the company ... which they then can’t invest in the business. It’s the same effect as you selling some shares" https://t.co/EWOAECBru1
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Librarian Capital
RT @MichLKosinski: Well now here is an odd thing.
My 86-year-old, highly intelligent, sharp-as-a-tack father in law-- a former AP journalist, lifetime anti-racist, champion of democracy, and excellent tweeter of truth--
has been kicked off of Twitter (yes I call it that). https://t.co/oGCpakW1Jk
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Librarian Capital
Terry Smith on Fundsmith decision to exit Diageo (II interview, 19-Sep)
1. LATAM over-stocking "puzzled" them and sector peers
2. "General downturn in spirits consumptions" in US
3. "Might be in the early stages" of GLP-1 effect
4. New management "untested" & unproven
$DGE $DEO https://t.co/lEggT5dOPL
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Librarian Capital
"China demands schoolteachers hand in their passports" (FT)
"Interviews with more than a dozen Chinese public sector workers and notices ... in half a dozen cities show restrictions on international travel have been greatly expanded ... to include rank-and-file employees" https://t.co/f2AEekSppb
China demands schoolteachers hand in their passports https://t.co/CThKNNfCzT
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Broyhill AM on Fiserv $FISV US
Thesis: Fiserv’s scale, embedded distribution advantages, and high-growth potential from its Clover platform make it a leading fintech investment with strong growth runway
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/v7iIgSFHkN
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Stock Analysis Compilation
TCW on Xylem $XYL US
Thesis: Xylem's leadership in water management, combined with its strategic acquisition of Evoqua, positions it well for long-term growth as global water challenges intensify
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/kxb0jfkAef
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Startup Archive
Peter Thiel explains his principle of only working on problems that wouldn’t get solved without you
Thiel shares that he’s “a little bit skeptical” of social entrepreneurship:
“Social entrepreneurship is always ambiguous because it’s unclear what the word ‘social’ means. Social can mean that it’s ‘good for society’ or it can mean that it’s ‘good as seen by society’. In the second meaning, you often end up with something that many people are doing.”
He gives education startups as an example of a social startup - it’s seen as objectively good and lots of people are working on it.
Thiel contrasts this to a mission-oriented company:
“A mission-oriented company is one where if you didn’t work on this problem, nobody would.”
He gives the example of Elon Musk starting SpaceX with the mission of going to Mars and making humans interplanetary. If Elon wasn’t working on it, this problem might not get solved.
Thiel believes this is an important principle in general:
“We always want to do things where… if you weren’t working on it, it wouldn’t get solved. Always go for that sort of counterfactual meaning. You don’t want to ever be in a place where you’re just one of a hundred cogs in the machine… You want to be in a place where you’re doing something that can’t be easily replicated or replaced - either on an individual level or the level of a company.”
Video source: @Wharton (2014)
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Startup Archive
Patrick Collison on the importance of beauty and craftsmanship when building products
“If Stripe is a monstrously successful business, but what we make isn’t beautiful, and Stripe doesn’t embody a culture of incredibly exacting craftsmanship, I’ll be much less happy. I think the returns to both of those things in the world are really high. I think even beyond the pecuniary or financial returns, the world’s just uglier than it needs to be… One can do things well or poorly, and beauty is not a rivalrous good.”
Patrick believes a commitment to craftsmanship and beauty played an important role in Stripe’s success:
“My intuition is that more of Stripe’s success than one would think is downstream of the fact that people like beautiful things—and for kind of rational reasons because what does a beautiful thing tell you? Well it tells you the person who made it really cared… And so if you care about the infrastructure being holistically good, indexing on the superficial characteristics that you can actually observe is not an irrational thing to do.”
Video source: @MillionStories (Mar 2024)
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Investing visuals
Show this to every investor who only talks about stock price👇 https://t.co/BRJCOA9IKk
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