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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Capital Employed
Q3 2024 Fund Letters Round-up has just been published to subscribers. ✍️
More letters to be added as they come.
Some great performances this year.
https://t.co/z8VTurKKQI https://t.co/evmO9KsQE3
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Ahmad Jivraj
Interesting strategy
Finding Beaten Down Multibaggers
This is the screen I've used to find some big winners in the past. From 2009 to 2021 I had ~80% CAGR using this in part to find big winners.
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Librarian Capital
"You should never buy any company that makes anything out of metal"
- Leonard Licht (former vice chair, Mercury AM)
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Librarian Capital
Kansas City, Missouri, proposing to ban all flavored nicotine products (vapes, pouches, etc.)
Missouri not among the states listed by $BATS as having passed "directory" laws against illicit vapes
Ban on flavored vapes and laws against illicits continue to have little overlap https://t.co/29zAyX92t4
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI:
Total ban on flavored vapes, Zyn / pouches, and all other nicotine and tobacco products to be heard in city committee tomorrow.
Zoom testimony allowed.
https://t.co/rBX09dKgo9
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Parex $PXT CN
Thesis: Parex’s stable free cash flow, shareholder returns, and exploration success make it a solid energy play with upside from future production growth
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/xxY6W5NHqq
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AkhenOsiris
Smallcap trade is dead because *gasp*, the economy is stronger than we thought 😥
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Quiver Quantitative
Hindenburg Research just shorted Roblox stock and called it a “hellscape for kids”
Nancy Pelosi owns $160K of Roblox stock, per our estimates.
This could be interesting. https://t.co/BlOSaQfnHq
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Insider Trading Alert
Shattuck Labs Inc, $STTK, sees large insider buy:
🔹CEO: ~$44,220 purchase on Oct 7
🔹Largest insider purchase by the CEO in 3+ years
Shares are up 14.16% today since the purchase https://t.co/MNxQ02E2zA
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Quiver Quantitative
Wisconsin's Senate race is now a toss-up.
The GOP challenger, Eric Hovde, might be the first member of WallStreetBets in Congress.
He had capital gains of up to $2M from GameStop, $GME, last year.
He had gains of up to $3.1M from $AMC.
He also traded stock in Bed, Bath, and Beyond and PacWest Bank.
It looks like he has sold almost all of his GameStop and AMC stock.
We estimate that his net worth is ~$320M.
You can track politicians' portfolios live on Quiver.
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Librarian Capital
"Google ordered to open Android to app store rivals after court loss" (FT)
$GOOG cannot:
Pay dev. to launch app 1st or only in Play Store
Force customers to use in-house billing system
Strive revenue share deals with mobile makers to pre-install Play Store or not install rivals https://t.co/w0wvQDXwmq
Google ordered to open Android to app store rivals after court loss https://t.co/zxN2EMG0Fk
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Quiver Quantitative
Canada just released images of a UFO shot down over Alaska last year. The object appears to be a small balloon with a payload, with similarities to the Chinese spy balloon over the US in 2023.
With more objects being sent into space daily, incidents like this will rise, and the need for reliable tracking is growing fast.
BlackSky ( $BSKY ) is one company that is trying to meet this demand. Earlier this year, they secured a multi-million dollar Department of Defense contract to track space objects in real time.
They recently raised $40 million through a share offering, diluting existing shareholders and lowering their market cap to $75 million. It should be noted that competition in the satellite imagery space is growing, making it tough for companies to stand out.
We’ll be keeping an eye on this. Follow along here for updates.
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Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi has made $1.6M in the stock market so far this morning, per our estimates: https://t.co/R3D1nDye4o
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Third Point on Corpay $CPAY US
Thesis: With Corpay's B2B Payments segment set to surpass fuel cards and consistent double-digit growth, this undervalued high-margin juggernaut could deliver significant returns.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/4vLNcah4dd
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Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #103 https://t.co/vGPdXzLDu9
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Librarian Capital
Hypothesis: Elon Musk is just another promoter
Through this, he's raised capital & kept valuations high
Tesla & SpaceX had some real successes because they are in low-return industries stunned by other capital, and Musk did buy some good talent
But there is nothing else there
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Capital Employed
International valuations... 🌎
South America and Hong Kong/China still looking cheap.
Everywhere else getting more expensive.
India/US the most expensive. https://t.co/ImmT8ATXwB
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Librarian Capital
Rightmove $RMV vs. Spirax $SPX: Which company's products are more mission-critical to customers?
- Rightmove
- Spirax
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Librarian Capital
Spirax $SPX P&L resilience through downturns
Revenue and Adjusted EBIT rose in £ every year in 2001-10, even through the Global Financial Crisis
(Ex-FX, revenue fell 7% and Adj. EBIT fell 12% in 2009) https://t.co/d5olzXQmg7
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Quiver Quantitative
We tracked over $7 billion in stock purchases by corporate insiders over the last quarter.
We trained a bot on top of this data, making trading decisions based on the amount and type of insider purchases at each company.
It's been beating the market: https://t.co/kicTGCieLt
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Oracle $ORCL US
Thesis: Oracle’s cloud infrastructure growth, driven by strong AI demand, positions it as a top player in enterprise software, with significant future upside.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/dmUL6frzkT
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AkhenOsiris
Hurricane Dimon:
- Crypto is bullshit
- AI is very real
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Librarian Capital
Asset mgmt. businesses are driven by AUM
Alpha's only one of many ways to get AUM
Ideas pitched by promoters often crash, because they are typically bad stockpickers
But they may have made the right decision in which skill to develop
That said, you don't have to listen to them
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Broyhill AM on Baxter $BAX US
Thesis: Baxter’s durable portfolio and expected 4-5% organic growth present a significant re-rating opportunity, as the stock is trading at a substantial discount to peers.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/8HpT74g7Vz
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Librarian Capital
Hypothesis: $IWG is leveraged bet on non-prime office
Only unwanted properties sign with IWG
No scale advantage beyond city-level
So tough competition, tight margins
Downside partly limited by SPVs
For IWG to make money, rent must rise more than what their own leases priced in https://t.co/XOgpl72foU
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Partners on Elastic $ESTC US
Thesis: Elastic’s robust AI-driven solutions and flexible platform make it a promising bet in the evolving AI and data analytics landscape
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/GOsMY9SfS4
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App Economy Insights
🛡️ Cybersecurity Earnings
Earnings season revealed AI tailwinds across all layers of the tech stack:
🤖 Chips $NVDA $AMD
☁️ Cloud $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG
📱 Applications $META $CRM $ADBE
Now, cybersecurity has become one of the most impacted categories. 👇
https://t.co/hqyautS6Xt
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Investing visuals
Meta $META keeps hitting new highs lately. Here's everything you need to know at a glance👇 https://t.co/cYIl2UxcqS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
At what price is Mastercard $MA a buy? Well, it depends on your required rate of return* 👇🏽
1️⃣ Starting Price $490 🟠
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~10.05% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~8.46% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~6.83% CAGR
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2️⃣ Starting Price $470 🟡
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~12.12% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~10.49% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~8.83% CAGR
___
3️⃣ Starting Price $450 🟢
31x P/E:$600.16💵 … ~14.32% CAGR
30x P/E: $580.80💵 … ~12.66% CAGR
29x P/E: $561.44💵 … ~10.97% CAGR
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*Assumptions: Fiscal Year ending in 2026, using 2026 EPS Estimate of $19.36 🧮
#stocks #investing
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Startup Archive
Paul Graham: “In the best startups each founder is king of their own domain”
Paul gives Apple as an example:
“Woz was not a super forceful person, but he did not let Steve Jobs change anything about the Apple I computer. There was one thing [Jobs] wanted to change. I think fewer expansion slots. And Woz said no. Steve Jobs knew where the limits were.”
He continues:
“Woz didn’t give a damn about the business stuff, so Steve Jobs was off selling the thing and Woz built it. They were each masters of their own domain. That’s the model that works. That’s how you have multiple people who are each extremely effective without stepping on one another’s toes.”
Video source: @twistartups @Jason (2014)
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Investing visuals
Pepsi Earnings update✨
🔹Revenue: $23.32B vs est. $23.8B (miss🔴)
🔹EPS: $2.31 vs est. $2.30 (slight beat🟢)
🔹Unchanged FY EPS guidance
Shares are down -1% in pre-market trading 📉
CocaCola $KO will report Q3 2024 on October 23.
An iconic business battle: Pepsi $PEP vs. CocaCola $KO 🥊 Who’s your pick?
❤️ Like for Pepsi $PEP
🔁 Retweet for CocaCola $KO
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