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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
Look at this.
Last month, we saw a trade from Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz that stood out to us.
We posted this report.
$HL has now risen 30% since the trade. https://t.co/TJIFNZ4PjY
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Librarian Capital
Clearlake and Platinum
new Moody’s report on who is in trouble in PE land: https://t.co/K5CnWFfsdU
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Investing visuals
E-Commerce Clash: Amazon $AMZN vs. Alibaba $BABA 🥊
Alibaba is up +50% in recent months, but $AMZN has dominated long-term.
Who's your pick?
❤️ Like for Alibaba $BABA
🔁 Retweet for Amazon $AMZN
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Praetorian Capital on Sprott $SII US
Thesis: Sprott’s leverage to precious metals and uranium, combined with strong fee growth potential, makes it an appealing asset manager in the commodity space.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/fmZcRPKTeJ
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Librarian Capital
"Citi $C, Mastercard $MA Team Up on Cross-Border Debit-Card Payments" (Bloomberg)
"Citigroup is the first global bank to use the service, known as Mastercard Move"
"What makes this method of money movement ideal for some transactions is the nearly real-time nature of it" (MA)
Mastercard and Citigroup are collaborating to facilitate around-the-clock, cross-border payments with debit cards https://t.co/lU55ubVMH1
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on BBVA $BBVA SM
Thesis: BBVA’s strategic expansion into Spain through its Sabadell acquisition, combined with its strong position in Mexico, makes it a solid banking investment.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/sIbYQKC9oe
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Hidden Value Gems
“During the current bull market, the S&P 500 forward P/E has increased from 15.3 during the October 12, 2022 week to 21.6 currently. That's not quite a record high, but it is getting closer to the 25.5 reached in 1999.”
@yardeni https://t.co/ewu6dQmgin
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Hidden Value Gems
Half of the people are not involved in $VTY.L. A quarter view the current issue as the buying opportunity, 15% see bigger risks, 10% still doing work.
Thank you for voting 👍
What do you think about Vistry?
$VTY.L
- A one-off, buy
- A serious issue, sell
- Not involved
- Still doing work
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Hidden Value Gems
It was not that long ago when International stocks were more expensive that the US (probably when everyone loved China) 👇🏽 https://t.co/jpmuobPMJQ
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨Major gains on insider purchases by director at $RNAC
🔹 Oct 2: ~$95.8k purchase
🔹 Oct 3: ~$2.4M purchase
🔹 Oct 4: ~$1.83M purchase
📈 $RNAC stock is up ~34% since the buying started https://t.co/tasVnmGSWI
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Element Fleet $EFN CN
Thesis: Element Fleet's capital-light model and strong earnings growth potential make it a robust play in the fleet management space.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/8O8vIENjqB
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Librarian Capital
Your periodic reminder that posting your stockpicks (and going on podcasts) can be harmful to returns
Nick Sleep: "Evangelism is not healthy"
An investor doing so may "subconsciously rob himself of his objectivity and the option to change his mind"
(Nomad letters, 2004)
PS. Why talking abut stock picks is bad. "Evangelism is not healthy". "In publicly disclosing his stock picking commitments, does the investemnt mgmr. subtly and no doubt subconsciously rob himself of objectivity and the option to change his mind?". Nick Sleep won't like FinTwit! https://t.co/HqEr5YBIt8
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #13 is in your inbox 🔥
(link below)
Artemis Finds / Artisan Partners / Bonsai Partners / Broyhill AM / Clearbridge / Cooper Investors / Guinness GI / Harding Loevner / Hardman Johnston / Harris Associates / McElvaine Value Fund / Orbis / Pender / TCW / Third Point / YCG Investments
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
~6 months ago I suggested that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment at $446💵
Since then, $MSCI shares have rallied +35% ✅
As I stated in my analysis:
“Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.33x
•10-Year Mean: 34.93x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.64%
•10-Year Mean: 3.37%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~19% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $519.31M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.50B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.80x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $913.36M
•2023: $2,528.92M
•CAGR: 10.72%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1,213.27M
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.60M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34.2%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 53.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 44.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~19% MORE in EPS & ~9% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 14.67% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.67%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.84 (9.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.07 (15.0% YoY)
2026E: $19.39 (13.6% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.39 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $620.48💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $601.09💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
30x P/E: $581.70💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $562.31💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $542.92💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have double-digit return potential if we assume >29x earnings, a level of fundamental support (first green line in P/E chart) & a level below its 10-year average multiple of 34.93x
Given its wide moat, exemplary capital allocation, & linearity in its EPS & FCF, I believe 29x is fair for $MSCI & leaves us with some margin of safety
Today at $446💵 my research leads me to believe that $MSCI is a worthwhile consideration for investment
Knowing that $MSCI could trade down a bit more (closer to 25x as you’ll see in second green line in P/E chart) I would piece into the position
In other words, if I wanted to allocate 5% to $MSCI, I’d likely look to initiate a 3% - 3.5% allocation & leave room to add more & make it 5% if we see $MSCI trade between $380💵 - $400💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Librarian Capital
Alex Wright, Fidelity Special Values $FSV (via Citywire):
"We have beaten the Nasdaq in 3 out of the last 4 years"
Last 5 years' return (£):
Fidelity Special Values: +7.5% p.a.
iShares NASDAQ 100 ETF: +20.2% p.a.
Do your own due diligence, people https://t.co/jbEwH75Pko
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Librarian Capital
Spirax $SPX: This investor was unimpressed last week
APG cut their stake by ~1%, from 4.0% to 3.0%
Read our view below to decide for yourself https://t.co/t1vvC8zTWX
"Spirax: Focus on Self-Help, Lower for Longer After Investor Day?"
The market has reacted badly to last week’s $SPX investor day, but we think the pessimism is overblown
https://t.co/pk4drk4hFr https://t.co/gAZQRC9Yz0
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Abbott $ABT US
Thesis: Abbott’s diverse business mix and strong international presence position it for continued growth in healthcare markets.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ziUmbhOHnG
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Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen explains why it’s worthwhile to talk to junior VCs when fundraising
You’ll sometimes here people advise founders to not “waste time” talking with junior people at venture firms because only the senior partners have the authority to make investment decisions.
Marc believes this is wrong and says that if he was a first-time founder again, he would spend a lot of time with junior VCs for two reasons:
1. Refine your pitch before talking to senior partners. “They can read the minds of the senior partners. They can tell you how its going to be received. And they can help you.”
2. Senior partners listen to the younger people at the firm. “The senior partners at a firm like ours look to the younger people a lot and ask, What’s interesting? We count on the younger people to stay connected, especially to the first time founders… I really encourage people to take the younger people in these firms seriously.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2016)
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Librarian Capital
"Unilever sells Russian business for €520m" (FT)
"Agreement had been reached to sell to Arnest assets worth approximately €600mn, including its business in Belarus, following approval by authorities in Moscow. Sources close to the deal confirmed the amount."
$ULVR $UL https://t.co/VSEj0Hh2DF
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Librarian Capital
John Hempton: "Thinking aloud about Google remedies"
"Please Justice Department, I have a product that works. Don’t break it"
"This is so destructive as to be comical"
$GOOG
Thinking aloud about Google remedies -
$GOOG, $GOOGL
https://t.co/z0TxIvERPi
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Librarian Capital
Investrors' Chronicle asked "Can Ruffer turn it around?" a year ago (10-Oct-23)
This was after Ruffer Investment Company $RICA shares fell 13% in the first ~9 months of 2023
A year on, RICA share price is up ... 2.7%
So the answer is they cannot https://t.co/tBbOqaCsV0
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Hidden Value Gems
Quote of the day #105
#investing #Stockmarket https://t.co/jGj7mfFbth
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Hidden Value Gems
Vulcan Value Partners: 3 new positions in Q3 '24 - $LVMUY $EG $PGHN.SW
🧵👇🏽
"LVMH is the largest luxury goods manufacturer in the world. It benefits from brand equity curated over decades with high quality, exclusive products that are instantly recognisable to consumers worldwide. LVMH owns a global portfolio of 75 luxury brands across various categories such as fashion, jewelry, wines and spirits, cosmetics, watches, and other goods."
"LVMH’s founder and CEO, Bernard Arnault, has operated the business with a long-term mindset that should endure long past his tenure."
"After several years of above-trend growth, LVMH’s sales growth has slowed, and we believe its profits will decline marginally this year. We believe the company can compound its value at a low double-digit rate over our long-term time horizon."
"We have owned LVMH in the past, and recent stock price volatility has allowed us to buy this wonderful business with a margin of safety to our estimate of intrinsic value."
1/3
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App Economy Insights
Teens Survey by Piper Sandlers (Fall 2024):
👫 14K US teens surveyed
💰 Spending up 6% Y/Y
Insights:
📱 87% own an iPhone
👟 Nike shed 4pp in footwear
🤳 TikTok's lead expands +2pp
🍗 Chick-fil-A tops restaurants
🍿 Netflix & YouTube still far ahead https://t.co/NGhO42YTMu
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Librarian Capital
Arthur Gallagher $AJG - look at that straight line ... https://t.co/oJK5Lh747T
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App Economy Insights
💣 US DOJ considers a Google break-up.
🚫 Limiting default search deals
🤖 Restrictions on AI-related products
🔓 Opening up APIs and ranking signals
🔎 Splitting Chrome and Android from Search
$GOOG We cover the possible impact here.👇
https://t.co/vcMGNBzlPM
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Silver Ring Value Partners on International Game Technology $IGT US
Thesis: IGT's stable lottery business, significant cash reserves, and attractive dividend yield offer a compelling undervalued opportunity, with limited downside risk.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/LEGLW1C4Qi
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $STTK has risen another 10% this morning, now up 22% since their CEO's stock purchase on Monday
🚨Insider Trading Alert
Shattuck Labs Inc, $STTK, sees large insider buy:
🔹CEO: ~$44,220 purchase on Oct 7
🔹Largest insider purchase by the CEO in 3+ years
Shares are up 14.16% today since the purchase https://t.co/MNxQ02E2zA
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