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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Stock Analysis Compilation
Let's start with the Q3 letters!
Every Wednesday in the newsletter I send out all the analysis published here in the previous 7 days in plain text, with links to all the letters.
Link : https://t.co/lBsLuVQjso https://t.co/QVjdSHoemi
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Hidden Value Gems
BofA October fund manager survey:
✅"Long Magnificent 7" is still the most crowded trade
✅ Geopolitical conflict is seen as the biggest tail risk
✅ Positioning on S&P 500 Is Very Extended https://t.co/43gDZ9DTyj
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Librarian Capital
"Buffett Cuts Bank of America $BAC Stake Below 10%" (Bloomberg)
$10.5bn of proceeds from 15 rounds of sales
Remaining stake still worth ~$31bn
Warren Buffett can take his time to reveal trades in Bank of America stock now that his conglomerate’s stake has been trimmed below a 10% regulatory threshold requiring rapid disclosure. https://t.co/f6mV7HyASD
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Librarian Capital
Bill Ackman calls for US/Israeli strike on Iran
"Now is the time for the US to partner with Israel and eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat before it is too late"
Is $PSH short the market? https://t.co/TljxTBW1fy
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Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: I am excited to announce the launch of the third Investment Masterclass. I will share:
➡️How you can apply my investment method in practice to generate solid returns
➡️Where to find new investment ideas
➡️Practical application of critical valuation tools and methods
➡️Portfolio management (position weights, taking profits and dealing with losers)
➡️How to avoid typical investment mistakes
Participants will receive a complimentary Investment Analysis package (proprietary Excel templates for valuation and financial analysis and an Investment Checklist).
Register today to secure your place and receive an early-bird discount 👇🏽
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Librarian Capital
There are differences between "The Snowball" editions
In recent weeks I have searched multiple times in vain for a passage* I thought I read
It turns out that 2 paragraphs have been edited out between the 2008 hardback I read and the 2018 kindle edition I bought for reference https://t.co/jyYfmjfsWf
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Arvind $ARVIND IN
Thesis: Arvind's shift towards high-margin, less capital-intensive businesses like finished garments and advanced materials makes it a compelling investment at its current undervaluation.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ioe6vMablY
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Hidden Value Gems
There is a risk that everyone is extrapolating the most recent trends, but still worth highlighting:
✅ Serving surging data center power consumption could require more than $2 trillion in new energy generation resources worldwide
✅ US energy demand could outstrip supply within the next few years; meeting demand would require utilities to boost annual generation by up to 26% by 2028.
✅ That’s far beyond the largest five-year generation boost of about 5% that US utilities achieved from 2005 through 2023.
via @BainandCompany
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Hidden Value Gems
“Two-thirds of respondents expect their companies’ profits to increase in the next six months, the largest share since October 2021. Advanced industries is the only industry in which significantly more respondents expect a boost in profits compared with the previous quarter’s survey.”
@McKinsey
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AkhenOsiris
The shitty waiting music for $TSLA We, Robot is brought to you by none other than D-Sol of Goldman Sachs
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Librarian Capital
$THG (The Hut Group) is a dumpster fire of a company
FT Alphaville has detailed THG's latest whiz
You should read it because it's fun, and also if you are a British American Tobacco $BATS $BTI shareholder
THG's senior independent director (Sue Farr) holds the same role at BAT https://t.co/0bSUoCsmlB
THG shareholders have to pay for (maybe) getting rid of Ingenuity https://t.co/DLkcsBH4I0
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AkhenOsiris
RT @ScroogeCap: Hearing Yipit Live saying $AMZN AWS has had a huge acceleration, now trailing at close to 24% Y/Y.
That would be pretty huge revenue which has been added quarter over quarter.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: The CEO of Dave and Buster’s, $PLAY, just disclosed a purchase of ~$500K of stock https://t.co/4DxbcDHAbm
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App Economy Insights
$AMD CEO Lisa Su predicts the Data Center AI Accelerators TAM will skyrocket to $500B by 2028.
That's a 60% CAGR from $45B in 2023. 📈🤯 https://t.co/RyaUME1oAg
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Diamond Hill on Labcorp $LH US
Thesis: Labcorp’s leading market position, smart M&A strategy, and growth potential in diagnostics make it a high-quality investment.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/qLyawqeb9e
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Hidden Value Gems
A masterpiece on Moats by @mjmauboussin (104 pages) 🧵👇
1⃣ "You can think of a stock price as having one part that reflects the value of the company operating at a steady state of profit and the other part that captures the value the company is expected to create or destroy with its future investments."
2⃣ "On average, the steady-state value has been two-thirds of the price and the anticipated value creation the other one-third.13 There have been bouts when the price reflected little or no future value creation (1974 and 2011) as well as significant future value creation (1999 and 2001)."
1/6
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Quiver Quantitative
Just received new election contribution data.
On September 5th, Donald Trump said he’d create a government efficiency commission led by Elon Musk.
On that same day, Elon donated $30M.
He also donated $5M just days after Trump was shot. https://t.co/aVqfNfgAso
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Hidden Value Gems
Q3 Oakmark's portfolio changes:
Sold $AXP $MO $GOOG
Purchased $DGE.L $RI.PA $GPC $MKKGY $AKZA.AS $AZE.BR
Summary of Buy theses 🧵👇🏽
1⃣ Diageo & Pernod Ricard
1/4 https://t.co/7tSE6LlprV
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Librarian Capital
~6 years ago: "Johnnie Walker unveils White Walker Scotch whisky"
"Bottled at 41.7% abv, the expression contains liquid from single malt distilleries Cardhu and Clynelish ... (and has) notes of caramelised sugar and vanilla, and fresh red berries with a touch of orchard fruit" https://t.co/TmFlYH2qmb
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Siemens Energy $ENR GY
Thesis: Siemens Energy’s crucial role in global energy grid upgrades positions it for sustained growth in the green energy transition
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/ucSmXs9Cdv
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Librarian Capital
"CPPIB managing director awarded damages" (FT)
An example of HR behaving badly
HR people don't understand the business and are often jealous producers make more than they
Judge: "The respondent appears to take issue with, and disapprove of, the claimant’s lifestyle choices"
CPPIB managing director who charged £11,700 to corporate card awarded damages https://t.co/HBwGiCu2KO
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Hidden Value Gems
An interesting stock idea by Tim McElvaine (former colleague of Peter Cundill)
Seaport Entertainment $SEG - a recent spinoff from Howard Hughes
✅ Seaport owns valuable assets, including hospitality properties in Manhattan, a Triple-A baseball team, and Las Vegas air rights, which alone match its current market value.
✅ The additional upside comes from the turnaround of the restaurant business under new management.
✅ Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square owns 38% of the company.
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Hidden Value Gems
An interesting lesson on portfolio management:
In 2019, 101 years after Keynes started his art collection, the five most valuable paintings represented 75% of the collection’s value, with one work alone being 25%. Keynes and Cambridge never “trimmed the Cezanne position” or “added to” the other paintings, most of which didn’t became valuable at all.
h/t @HarveySawikin
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Capital Employed
Interesting idea by @compoundersEX on $7092 Fast Fitness Japan.
The owner of master franchise rights to Anytime Fitness in Japan. 👇
https://t.co/gjrUUWRw2x?
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Capital Employed
More Q3 letters have just been added. Lots to delve into over the weekend... 👇
https://t.co/z8VTurKKQI https://t.co/6duFHfNb3m
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Clearbridge on Construction Partners $ROAD US
Thesis: Construction Partners’ strong exposure to high-growth infrastructure markets and impressive EBITDA growth make it a top performer in the construction sector.
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/npbyY586CW
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Librarian Capital
"Investing through the capital cycle" & Retail
In "Capital Returns", "retail" mentioned 39 times, but far more often about retail investors than retailers
Only retailers listed in index were Ahold, Amazon, IKEA, Walmart. Costco was in book but not index
This may mean something https://t.co/mTiRWyUGER
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Librarian Capital
How small blunders often play a role in great events
"Starboard had been planning to unveil its campaign in full on Oct-22", but one executive (D’Amelio) working with them accidentally sent blank e-mail to $PFE CEO, board and Starboard person on Sun
D'Amelio has now withdrawn https://t.co/rSe4ERCO1g
Starboard plotted a campaign against Pfizer’s chief. Then a blank email dropped in his inbox
Incredible behind the scenes reporting inside corporate America’s biggest drama right now
@mroliverbarnes @HeeterMaria @JFK_America https://t.co/f7p7BLI3Ay
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Librarian Capital
CAB Payments receiving a bid at £1.45/share
$CABP IPO-ed at £3.35 back in Jul-23 ...
Great job, everyone! https://t.co/IiCpjKa0bJ
Bingo! CAB Payments announces circa £370 million bid from StoneX worth £1.45 a share - as predicted here earlier this week
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Quiver Quantitative
Reminder that we have caught almost half of the House Ethics Committee violating the STOCK Act.
The Ethics Committee is in charge of enforcing the STOCK Act.
They rarely do.
Here's who we caught:
Representative John Rutherford: 152 violations
Representative David Joyce: 136 violations
Representative Michael Guest (Chairman): 2 violations
Representative Deborah Ross: 1 violation
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