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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: Democratic Senator Jon @ossoff has announced that he will vote for the Laken Riley Act. https://t.co/uGew9AfY3b
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InsideArbitrage
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🚂 $GBX Greenbrier Reports Strong First Quarter Results; Renews $100 million share repurchase authorization (~5% of current market cap)
Q1 Highlights:
💵 Net earnings: $55M ($1.72/share) on $876M revenue
📈 EBITDA: $145M (16.6% of revenue)
🚛 Lease fleet growth: +1,200 units to 16,700; utilization ~99%
🚂 New railcar orders: 3,800 units worth $520M; backlog: 23,400 units ($3.0B)
💰 Dividend declared: $0.30/share, payable Feb 19, 2025 (43rd consecutive)
🔄 Share repurchase: $100M authorization extended to Jan 2027
CEO: “Greenbrier achieved impressive results in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, delivering exceptional bottom-line performance and ROIC within our long-term range. The ongoing expansion of the lease fleet and the resulting recurring revenue is very encouraging. Our strong aggregate gross margin for the quarter was driven by a product mix weighted to more profitable railcar types and continued optimization in our manufacturing processes and capacity. We continue to streamline our business with the combination of our Manufacturing and Maintenance Services segments into one reportable segment, part of a strategic organizational alignment that commenced one year ago.”
https://t.co/mftI470QZS
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Just caught a penny stock purchase from Representative Laurel Lee.
Her spouse bought stock in a company called TuHURA Bio, $HURA, on November 25th.
It rose 87% in the four days following the trade.
Seeing what I can find on this - follow here for updates. https://t.co/WxnBQVW1Rx
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Can’t wait to start reading these two books, feel like a kid on Christmas Morning🎁 https://t.co/5la1fSAKLu
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
ROIC vs WACC (Tutorial): Donuts Gone Stale.
Stay away from this value trap. One of the 18 Most Dangerous Small Caps on @NewConstructs platform for Dec 24. S/O to @finchat_io for their always quick and beautiful charts. https://t.co/9YTJYf4AN2
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Bell AM on Nvidia $NVDA US
Thesis: NVIDIA is a strong investment opportunity despite recent setbacks, supported by confident growth prospects in AI infrastructure and conservative consensus estimates on GPU demand.
(Extract from their September letter) https://t.co/c8udq0ubiX
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Startup Archive
Jeff Bezos on the problems with proxies and managing to metrics
“One of the things that happens in business is that you develop certain things that you’re managing to—a typical case would be a metric. And that metric isn’t the real underlying thing.”
To illustrate his point, he suggests a hypothetical example of company that designates “customer returns per units sold” to be an important metric:
“The person who invented that metric and decided it was worth watching had a reason. And then when you fast forward five years, that metric is the proxy. In this case, it’s a proxy for customer happiness. But that metric is not actually customer happiness.”
He continues:
“Five years later, a kind of inertia can set in and you forget the truth behind why you were watching that metric in the first place. And the world shifts a little. And now that proxy isn’t as valuable as it used to be—or it’s missing something. You have to be on alert for that.”
You have to keep in mind that you don’t really care about the metric. What you care about is customer happiness, and the metric is only worth putting energy into and scrutinizing to the extent that it actually improves customer happiness.
“It’s very common and it’s a nuanced problem—especially in large companies—that they are managing to metrics that they don’t really understand. They don’t really know why [these metrics] exist. And the world may have shifted out from under them a little, and the metrics are no longer as relevant as they were when somebody ten years earlier invented them.”
You need metrics and can’t ignore them, but you have to make sure you really understand them and why they were invented in the first place.
“This is a way to slip into day 2 thinking — managing your business to metrics that you don’t really understand.”
Video source: @lexfridman (2013)
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Ahmad Jivraj
The FOMO Unwind today
$IONQ -42%
$RGTI -48%
$QUBT -47%
$DATS -64%
$LAES -33%
$WIMI -30%
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: @SenTedCruz has introduced legislation to create congressional term limits.
Follow here for updates. https://t.co/j3L8msY9jW
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InsideArbitrage
Transcarent to Acquire Accolade $ACCD for $621 Million -
✴️Transcarent will acquire Accolade for $7.03 per share in cash, representing a premium of 109.85% from the stock’s last close.
✴️Once the acquisition is completed, expected in Q2 2025, Accolade will become a privately owned company.
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Investing visuals
Palantir $PLTR quarterly revenue per employee is $192.000 as of Q3 '24 and the highest it's ever been.
That's $768.000 on a yearly basis🤯 https://t.co/C2uuzQA8ag
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InsideArbitrage
Cintas Makes $CTAS $5.1 Billion Takeover Offer for Uniform Supplier UniFirst $UNF - WSJ
👔Cintas proposed acquiring all of UniFirst’s outstanding common and Class B shares for $275 apiece, in cash.
👔Cintas plans to publicize its offer imminently after UniFirst’s board refused multiple times to engage further in any deal talks.
👔UniFirst's discussions with Elis SA in October 2024 had ended without the companies reaching any agreement.
Elis SA made an informal takeover proposal to U.S. peer UniFirst $UNF - Bloomberg
⏩UniFirst reached out to Elis to gauge its appetite for a deal after Elis’s takeover approach to rival Vestis $VSTS became public last month.
⏩Elis made a non-binding proposal for UniFirst, whose board rejected it in recent days, and the companies aren’t currently in talks.
⏩It remains to be seen whether the interest in UniFirst will be revised.
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InsideArbitrage
Getty Images $GETY and Shutterstock $SSTK to Merge in a $3.7 Billion Deal -
📸Shutterstock shareholders can choose one of three options at closing: $28.85 in cash per share, 13.67 shares of Getty Images stock per share, or a combination of 9.17 Getty Images shares and $9.50 in cash per Shutterstock share.
📸The merged company will be called Getty Images Holdings, Inc. and will keep trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “GETY.”
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Hidden Value Gems
Food for thought from Ruchir Sharma via @FT
🧵 👇🏼
Ten trends to watch in 2025
1️⃣ Return of the contrarians
History shows that the global economy and markets move in cycles, not straight trend lines. Contrarian investing is rooted in these patterns.
1/11 https://t.co/wkMwOKI2Lp
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InsideArbitrage
🚀 $ULTA Ulta Beauty announced that David C. Kimbell has stepped down as CEO and Board member, effective January 6, 2025.
Kecia L. Steelman, currently President and Chief Operating Officer, has been appointed as the new CEO. Kimbell will remain with the company as an advisor through June 28, 2025
Kecia Steelman has been with Ulta Beauty since 2014, holding key roles such as Chief Store Operations Officer and COO.
💼 Steelman’s compensation as CEO includes a base salary of $1.35 million
📈 David C. Kimbell, who served as CEO since 2021, led Ulta to achieve over $11 billion in annual revenue and a 55% return on equity.
Strong Financial Performance: Under Kimbell’s leadership, the company delivered strong financial performance, with current earnings per share at $25.04.
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InsideArbitrage
🚨 $SPHR Sphere Entertainment appoints Robert Langer as EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, effective Jan 13, 2025.
🏰📺 Langer brings 25+ years of leadership experience from Disney, including CFO roles at Disney ABC Television and Disneyland Resort.
💡 Sphere Entertainment, is renowned for its Sphere Las Vegas venue, launched in Sept 2023. It also operates MSG Networks $MSGN featuring regional sports & entertainment networks + MSG+ streaming.
💼 Compensation Highlights for Langer:
Base salary: $1M/year 💵
Annual bonus: 100% of base salary 🎯
Long-term awards: $1.7M+ annually 🏆
$SPHR Sphere Entertainment announces CFO David F. Byrnes is leaving the company and will commence a search for a new CFO.
▶️Mr. Byrnes will continue in his current role for an interim period to ensure a smooth transition.
▶️Byrnes has been with Sphere since December 2023 and previously served as CFO of MSG Entertainment.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Why "Expensive" Stocks Can Be a Bargain: A Tale of ROIC and EPS Growth 💸
I asked Grok to show why stocks that seem pricey may be great investments if their Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC) and EPS growth rates justify their premium
Here’s how Grok explained it 👇🏽 https://t.co/tJEWuXl7bt
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Polen Capital on Booz Allen Hamilton $BAH US
Thesis: Booz Allen Hamilton is a trusted management and consulting firm for U.S. government clients, expected to deliver low-teens earnings growth and mid-teens returns through its strategic services and recent price weakness.
(Extract from their Q3 letter)
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Opportunity Fund on Tesla $TSLA US
Thesis: Tesla is leveraging its extensive data, advanced computational power, and significant investments in AI to lead in autonomous driving and humanoid robotics markets.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/NdDN3aAwwd
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 📈 How to Analyze a Stock
6 questions to ask before you click “buy” 👇
https://t.co/HroFFEvo9F
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Investing visuals
Alphabet $GOOGL: A Cloud giant and ads market leader for a reasonable price👌 https://t.co/SswXmIoW5a
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Let’s take a look at $MA & $MA impressive 10-year track record (2014-2024) 💳
As you can see below, $MA & $V have delivered excellent returns relative to the broader market, with a higher Sharpe ratio meaning they’ve achieved a better risk-adjusted return 📊 https://t.co/UazJvwQkz5
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund on KKR $KKR US
Thesis: KKR & Co. Inc. is a leading alternative asset manager poised for significant growth through its diversified investment strategies and expansion in less penetrated markets like Asia.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/efA7sbDKEH
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hedge funds' best ideas #26 is in your inbox 🔥
(link in bio)
Includes links to the Q3 letters & articles from Artisan Partners / Hotchkis & Wiley / Liontrust / Madison funds / Mar Vista / Mayar Capital / Newbridge AM / Orbis / Parnassus / Perritt CM / Polen Capital / Rewey AM / Riverwater Partners / Royal London AM / Royce IP / RS Investments / THB AM
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Virginia Foxx just disclosed a sale of up to $100K of stock in Pembina Pipeline, $PBA.
$PBA is a Canadian pipeline company.
Probably bearish for trade between the US and Canada. https://t.co/wGXkoGFrQw
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: JUST IN: Representative David Schweikert just introduced legislation to let authorized AI models prescribe drugs.
Follow here for updates. https://t.co/bjrDgI7Zez
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InsideArbitrage
Poseida Therapeutics $PSTX announced that it filed a Premerger Notification and Report Form under the HSR Act on December 6, 2024, for its merger with Roche.
The waiting period under the HSR Act expired on January 6, 2025.
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Startup Archive
Naval Ravikant: “The future will be almost all startups”
“I firmly believe that the efficient size of a company is shrinking very rapidly, and so the future will be almost all startups.”
In the clip below from a 2012 interview, Naval speculates that information technology will reverse the centralizing force of economies of scale following the Industrial Revolution.
“I think the contract work trend is going to increase, and I think the size of your average company is going to decrease. I think we’re going to see more and more billion dollar businesses built by four or five people, and it’ll stay at that.”
He doesn’t think we’ll see many more companies like Facebook or Google with tens of thousands of employees:
“I think any entrepreneur worth their salt could today build Facebook with a few hundred people… Facebook and Google are in the situation that large companies end up in where the founders know that 80% of the people are not really needed, they just don’t know which 80%.”
Video source: @PandoDaily (2012)
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InsideArbitrage
Stryker $SYK Acquires Inari Medical $NARI in an All-Cash Deal Worth $4.9 Billion :
🩺Under the terms of the agreement, Stryker will commence a tender offer for all outstanding shares of Inari’s common stock for $80 per share in cash, representing a premium of 60.74% from the stock’s last close.
🩺The deal is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @QuiverCongress: NEW: @RepMikeLevin has introduced legislation to provide a tax credit for purchases of safe gun storage devices. https://t.co/SK1r7ZUzwv
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