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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
AkhenOsiris
Cybersec strength keeps going, monster YTD
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Quiver Quantitative
The net worth numbers on this 38M view post appear to be made up.
Nancy Pelosi is actually worth significantly more: $269M by our estimates.
McConnell, Warren, and Schumer are all worth significantly less.
I'd encourage people to use Quiver for politician portfolio tracking, because there are a lot of celebrity net worth sites that just make up numbers.
Nancy Pelosi
Annual salary: $223,000
Net worth: $202 million
Mitch McConnell
Annual salary: $200,000
Net worth: $95 million
Chuck Schumer
Annual salary: $210,000
Net worth: $75 million
Elizabeth Warren
Annual salary: $285,000
Net worth: $67 million
@elonmusk @DOGE
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Quiver Quantitative
We have now seen multiple members of Congress selling off stock in Canadian pipeline and shipping companies: https://t.co/9eaQFMg8yt
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Mairs and Power Growth Fund on Clearfield $CLFD US
Thesis: Clearfield’s fiber solutions are well-positioned to benefit from rising telecom investments and government-funded broadband expansion
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/GE61sMkQPg
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Finding Compounders
Why Shareholders Are Wild About Return On Invested Capital https://t.co/am0cYlAXqD
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Quiver Quantitative
We posted this yesterday.
$BABA has risen another 6% today.
BREAKING: Representative Josh Gottheimer just disclosed a purchase of Alibaba stock, $BABA.
Alibaba is a Chinese tech company.
Gottheimer sits on the House Intelligence Committee. https://t.co/UlqKrp89eY
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Josh Hawley just said:
"Tech company CEOs like Sam Altman are totally out of touch with normal Americans.
They want to protect their power at the expense of our rights"
Hawley has proposed a bill to ban corporate campaign contributions. https://t.co/cSKcrTBVe0
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Third Avenue Small Cap Value Fund on Five Point Holdings $FPH US
Thesis: Five Point’s cost reductions, land monetization, and debt reduction efforts position it for significant value creation
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/WfIui86PW3
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MANH Manhattan Associates has been increasing its predictability 📊
Take a look at the company’s cloud subscription revenue as a percentage of total revenue👇🏽 https://t.co/iqftjxEZ5u
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Startup Archive
Reed Hastings on The Netflix Keeper Test:
"If a person on your team were to quit tomorrow, would you try to change their mind? Or would you accept their resignation, perhaps with a little relief? If the latter, you should give them a severance package now, and look for a star, someone you would fight to keep."
"The Keeper Test" by @reedhastings https://t.co/ObgxIMRe2Q
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Finding Compounders
One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/Mb3pUiRMwq
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Quiver Quantitative
WOW.
TWO members of Congress just disclosed $PLTR purchases stock this morning.
The trades were both made in late January. The stock is up over 50% since then.
We had never seen a politician buy Palantir stock before today. https://t.co/cDQPqeKz2Y
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Stock Analysis Compilation
River Oaks on Medical Facilities $DR CN
Thesis: Medical Facilities’ undervaluation and potential asset sales could unlock significant shareholder value
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/ulyR0smcGY
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Investing visuals
If you're interested in Palantir $PLTR, here are 5 visuals you should know🧵👇
1 - How $PLTR makes money🫰 https://t.co/NIngUovmBA
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New Insider Purchase
The Chief Commercial Officer of $AMD has just reported purchasing $500K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 16%.
This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 4 years.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Focused Growth Fund on Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. $LYV US
Thesis: Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. is a leading company in live concert management with significant competitive advantages, strong growth potential, and attractive valuation despite economic concerns.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Value Spotlight (Andrew Sather)
Update to Uber's ROIC after latest earnings.
Crazy stuff man https://t.co/ySKfNChTif
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App Economy Insights
💰 The AI arms race is heating up.
Big Tech is pouring billions into infrastructure.
FY25 CapEx estimates:
🟠 $AMZN: $100B+
⚫️ $MSFT: $80B
🔴 $GOOG: $75B
🔵 $META: $63B
Who’s in the best position to win? https://t.co/3Lqvf9O9MA
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $KMT has just reported purchasing $217K of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 15%.
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AkhenOsiris
Too many Larry Balik posts, can APP just go up after earns
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Startup Archive
Michael Seibel on why you need to analyze the frequency and intensity of your customer's problem
Former Google CEO Larry Page uses a simple framework called "The Toothbrush Test" to decide whether he likes a business. He asks himself if the product is, like a toothbrush, "something you will use once or twice a day."
Former Y Combinator CEO Michael Seibel has a similar framework for assessing whether or not a startup is working on a good problem.
As he explains in the clip below, it's extremely important to analyze the frequency and the intensity of the problem you're solving for the customer.
He uses a car shopping website as an example. A lot of founders will think that their customer here is the person buying a car. But the problem with that is most people keep a car for 7 years. As he points out:
"What happens if I told you I was going to create a startup and if my customer absolutely loves me, they're going to come back 7 years from now?"
Probably not a great startup idea.
This is why a lot of car buying websites are not built for the person shopping for a car--that person doesn't have the problem very often. They're actually built for the person selling the car, because that person has a problem every day.
When you're assessing a startup idea, you want to do a frequency and intensity analysis of the problem.
“A lot of founders think they have a good idea, but they don’t do this frequency and intensity analysis. If you have an infrequent and low-intensity problem that you’re trying to solve, you’re going to have a hard time getting a lot of customers interested in even talking to you.”
All things equal, it's better for the problem you're solving to be higher-frequency and higher-intensity.
Take Uber for example. Usually, when you need to go somewhere (e.g. work, doctor, pick up your kids, etc.), it's a pretty intense problem--so intense that people will spend $20,000 on a car to solve this problem. And then when you think about frequency: how often do you move more than walking distance every day? Probably a lot.
Uber is clearly working on a worthwhile problem.
If the problem your customer has is high-intensity and happens frequently, there's probably a good business to be built there.
Video source: @ycombinator (2018)
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Quiver Quantitative
Tulsi Gabbard was just confirmed as the Director of National Intelligence.
She has agreed to divest from her crypto holdings, which include:
- $50,000 of Bitcoin, $BTC
- $15,000 of Cronos
- $15,000 of Solana
- $15,000 of Ethereum https://t.co/oEQLEmhwQt
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Hidden Value Gems
It has been a while since somebody wrote on $XPEL, so I decided to bring it up. Never understood its competitive advantage, but given the past growth and margins relative to much lower valuation today - wondering whether it is time to do some work...
➡️Sales 10Y CAGR +36%
➡️EPS 5Y CAGR +43%
➡️P/E (NTM) 16x
I like this "Peter Lynch" chart
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Startup Archive
RT @foundertribune: "The Keeper Test" by @reedhastings https://t.co/ObgxIMRe2Q
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
AKO Capital 13F as of Q4 2024 💵
Notable adds: $ACN $INTU $CPRT $EFX
Notable sales: $ICE $FICO $TMO https://t.co/3FP63fubqJ
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Mike Lee and Representative Claudia Tenney have introduced legislation to ban federal funding towards PBS and NPR. https://t.co/KIL4tBFGzk
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Investing visuals
Tesla $TSLA auto sales account for 93% of their revenue and is declining right now.
When do you think RoboTaxi, FSD and Optimus revenue will kick in? 🤔 https://t.co/VhleGLsbRq
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Startup Archive
Uber founder Travis Kalanick: “Every angel deal that gets done is a momentum play”
Below are the key excerpts from Travis’s blog post Startup Seed Raising Skillzzz:
1. Priming the Pump. “Go to angel gatherings, industry conferences, any and all networking events. Meet people who are angels or who know angels. Give ‘em the elevator pitch… make sure you’re meeting with somebody new EVERY DAY.”
2. Intro meetings. “Informal discussion where you pitch the company over a lunch/coffee/etc., and expand potential angel network through referrals. Get your pitch down to 5-10 minutes, and prepare a tight FAQ in your head so that you have tight answers to the top 20 questions. Let them pay. Be proud of your scrappiness.”
3. ABC’s – Always Be Closing. ”At the end of every meeting, get a clear understanding of where they stand on your deal opportunity.”
4. Referrals are key. “Most angels will immediately offer up a couple folks they can hook you up with… always ask for more folks you can connect with.”
5. Advisors: ”Turn a couple of these potential angels into advisors. Having a few top-notch people in your corner can make all the difference in turning the tide in an angel round.”
6. Thought Partner: ”Pick one advisor, co-founder, or mentor who will be your thought partner in managing the process.”
7. TheList: ”Keep a list (aka pipeline) of the people you’re meeting with, the referrals that they provide you, and the level of their interest in the seed round. Stay on the ball…Always follow up.”
8. Passion/Charisma. “Focus on the positive, have confidence, be amped, bring passion to your game, and share the love with the person across from you.”
9. Credibility. ”DO NOT FIGHT THE TRUTH… Do not try to spin out of what your weak points are. Do not try to make something certain that is not. Do not pretend to know something that you don’t. Credibility is the name of the game in fundraising.”
10. Momentum and Urgency. ”Investors are fickle creatures, they are motivated by fear and greed… Time IS NOT YOUR FRIEND! The longer the process drags out, the more it seems that nobody is interested in your deal, and the less likely you are to actually get one.”
11. Getting the Lead. ”Until you have a lead, you don’t have a deal… The way to get a lead is to spur one of the larger, most interested investors into making an offer.”
12. The Competitive Deal – The Need for Speed. ”The second you have a single term sheet, you need to move very quickly to get a second one. You don’t have a lot of time, because momentum at this point is crucial to closing… Your second term sheet will be easier to get than your first, but it will make a HUGE impact on your deal. Without a second termsheet, you will be in a position to take whatever crappy terms the original lead provided, and it’s quite possible that the terms could get worse (or even go away!) as the one-termsheet deal drags out.”
13. Herding the cattle. ”Once you start working the competitive leads, you need to start getting word out to ALL of the interested parties, that this deal is getting hot, and that you could start moving to close in very short order… This makes them anxious about the competitive situation you’ve created b/c now your deal has been validated.”
14. Anti-Collusion. ”The heavyweights in your deal will have the inclination to collude to make the terms better… Keep it short and sweet with each potential colluder, and draw a very straight firm line that the material terms are not changing.”
15. Sprint through the close. ”Until the deal is closed, you have at best a 50/50 shot of it happening. Keep working new seed investors, keep the competitive leads warm, get your deal oversubscribed, because until your deal is done, it’s just a nice fantasy in your head.”
Video source: @TechCoH[...]
InsideArbitrage
RT @BillAckman: Beginning in early January, we began acquiring a position in @Uber. Today, we own 30.3 million shares.
I have been a long-term customer and admirer of Uber beginning when Edward Norton showed me the app in its early days. I was also fortunate to be a day-one investor in the company through a small investment in a venture fund.
While a great business, Uber suffered from erratic management. Since he joined the company in 2017, Dara Khosrowshahi CEO has done a superb job in transforming the company into a highly profitable and cash-generative growth machine.
We believe that Uber is one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world. Remarkably, it can still be purchased at a massive discount to its intrinsic value. This favorable combination of attributes is extremely rare, particularly for a large cap company.
We will have more to share about our thinking on the company shortly.
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