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https://x.com/i/lists/1669153613199835138?t=R0mCicxs7zfJE_yOAek4gQ&s=09
App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🏦 JPMorgan $JPM
📈 Blackrock $BLK
🛩️ Delta Airlines $DAL
🍺 Constellation $STZ
🌿 Tilray $TLRY
https://t.co/ihoYX8urWL
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The Kobeissi Letter
For what it's worth:
"Weekend" Nasdaq 100 futures surge +1.3% on this news. https://t.co/01A4EdJfDs
BREAKING: The US publishes reciprocal tariff exclusions for computers, smartphones, and chip-making equipment.
Just like that, big tech is back.
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The Kobeissi Letter
Since President Trump's "Great Time To Buy" Advice:
1. 90-day reciprocal tariff pause has been announced
2. Fed said "absolutely" ready to stabilize market if needed
3. Reciprocal tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, chip-making equipment announced
4. Trump asked China to request negotiation call
5. S&P 500 adds +$3.5 trillion in market cap
What a time to be alive.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The US imports over $60 BILLION of smartphones per year.
These exemptions cover some of the most crucial imports in another sign of the US conceding in the trade war.
After all, the bond market is forcing Trump to concede.
BREAKING: The US publishes reciprocal tariff exclusions for computers, smartphones, and chip-making equipment.
Just like that, big tech is back.
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Finding Compounders
Li Lu’s recommend book list . https://t.co/ALAGzQBCcH
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Capital Employed
Interesting pitch $NRP – Natural Resource Partners LP 🇺🇸
$NRP is starting to look interesting.
This is a cheap coal (80% met coal) royalty business that has been on a deleveraging path for the last 10 years. The company will likely pay off its remaining debt this year and begin paying dividends. Considering that it trades at less than 4x FCF (ex. stake in soda ash biz), the start of dividend payouts should be a meaningful catalyst.
Based on my estimates, there’s about 60% upside in this setup, even assuming $150M in norm. FCF ($220-230m last year), a level the company has almost never reached. During the low met coal pricing years (2015–16 and 2019), distributable cash flow from the coal business was between $187M and $214M, so $150M is a pretty conservative assumption. I’m capitalizing it at a 10% yield, which is more than reasonable given the quality of the royalty stream operations. This also excludes the COVID-affected years when distributable cash flow dropped to trough levels of $130M.
Why is the company cheap?
There are several reasons for NRP’s undervaluation. For one, it’s structured as an MLP, which by default limits the pool of interested investors. Additionally, coal remains an unloved industry among larger funds, so it’s no surprise the company trades at these levels. On top of that, we’re currently in a low coal and soda ash pricing environment due to weaker Chinese demand.
Despite this, NRP operates a royalty business with minimum payment commitments and limited exposure to global pricing and volume volatility. As a result, even a highly conservative normalized FCF estimate of $150M seems to more than compensate for the majority of these supply and demand-side risks.
The company owns 13m acres of mineral rights across various parts of the U.S., primarily for coal, most of which is metallurgical coal. These properties are leased for 5 to 40 years to some of the lowest-cost producers in the world. The mineral rights business generates about 80–85% of the company’s total distributable cash flow, with the remainder coming from its soda ash business.
Leading up to 2016, the previous management team pursued an aggressive M&A strategy and took on significant leverage. When coal prices collapsed in 2016, the company nearly went bankrupt. The CEO was removed, and new management pivoted to a strategy focused on debt reduction and selling off non-core assets. To survive the debt burden, the company was also forced to issue preferred equity and warrants, though these later became an overhang. Last year, all of the preferreds and warrants were finally eliminated. Now, with just a minimal amount of debt remaining (= to 1y of FCF), the company is positioned to start issuing dividends.
Finally, insiders own nearly 25% of the stock, so they’re well-incentivized to pursue buybacks or significantly higher dividend payouts.
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Capital Employed
Interesting pitch on $BFF – BFF Bank SpA 🇮🇹
$BFF.MI €7, €1.35B. Sized up recently. Quick pitch: leader in Italian non-recourse factoring market w/30% market share. The company runs a sustainable 30%+ROE & trades at 6x EPS. Baby thrown out w/bath due to classification as a ‘bank’, leading to misplaced neg. sentiment. 1/n
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says the bond market did not drive his decision to delay reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.
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Hidden Value Gems
A little surprised to see Nebraskan beef in Tenerife.
Spain could have made a good deal with the US if it wasn’t part of EU 😀 https://t.co/5O2EmkxgPD
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Consumer egg prices in the US rise to a new record high, up another 5.6% in March, per Bloomberg.
Retailers are reportedly worried about supply. https://t.co/D55OXnZCcb
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Finding Compounders
Warren Buffett on why Berkshire invested in railroads
“ You can’t move the railroad to China or India “ https://t.co/2D477G6cyF
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Investing visuals
The harder the downturn, the sweeter the rebound. https://t.co/WXpmOklMGA
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Recession worries rebound with odds of a recession in 2025 up to 63% today, per @Kalshi. https://t.co/NFrOdFr7mP
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: @AOC says she is very interested in which politicians from both parties were trading before the tariff pause.
Not sure if she's seen our reports yet. https://t.co/ErnxITis41
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The Kobeissi Letter
Trade war insanity:
Only in 2025 does a 5% swing in the S&P 500 feel "normal" while options on market indices move 200%+ per day.
One of our premium members is now up +4,800% over the last 3 months, turning <$1000
@TKLSubscribers I’m TP here. Yesterday’s IV crush was brutal https://t.co/IBU0JJt36r
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The Kobeissi Letter
Let's put the tariff exemptions into perspective:
The US imports approximately $100 billion of computers, smartphones, and chip-making equipment from China PER YEAR.
A total of $439 billion of goods were imported from China into the US in 2024.
This means ~23% of ALL Chinese imports coming to the US are now exempt from "reciprocal tariffs."
This is a massive U-Turn in tariff policy.
BREAKING: The US publishes reciprocal tariff exclusions for computers, smartphones, and chip-making equipment.
Just like that, big tech is back.
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Finding Compounders
What is value investing all about anyway ? https://t.co/Sgg5OIlS5i
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The Kobeissi Letter
This week, everyone learned exactly what it takes to pressure the US in the trade war:
Sell US treasuries and drive treasury yields higher.
The bond market is Trump's #1 priority and everyone knows it now. https://t.co/EvA1y650fE
We now know Trump's TOP economic priority:
For weeks, President Trump said there would be NO tariff delay, even as stocks erased $12+ TRILLION.
Then, the bond market BROKE and a 90-day tariff pause was implemented 12 hours later.
Keep watching bonds.
(a thread) https://t.co/M3AltQqjee
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The US publishes reciprocal tariff exclusions for computers, smartphones, and chip-making equipment.
Just like that, big tech is back.
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Investing visuals
Seems like everyone suddenly forgot we’re in the middle of an AI revolution. Companies I believe will benefit the most:
Phase 1: $NVDA, $ASML, $AMD, $TSMC
Phase 2: $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN
Phase 3: $PLTR, $NOW, $SNOW, $NET
Phase 4: $CRWD, $TEAM, $CRM, $SHOP https://t.co/HNguFXadre
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Capital Employed
Good pitch on $PK – Park Hotels & Resorts 🇺🇸
At today’s share price, a $76.8k position in Park Hotels and Resorts makes you the owner of exactly one of their 25k beautiful hotel rooms.
Replacement cost per room was $792k before tariffs increased that even more.
I made $PK a 10% position today. https://t.co/IR9tGc6Jt1
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The All-In Podcast
🚨 An All-Time Episode: The Great Tariff Debate 🤝
featuring:
-- @Jason
-- @chamath
-- @DavidSacks
-- @LHSummers
-- @ezraklein
(@friedberg is off this week!)
(0:00) bestie intros!
(0:58) reacting to trump targeting china and postponing all other reciprocal tariffs
(21:21) measures for success of tariffs, debating the impact of letting china into the wto
(46:14) is the us being exploited on trade? was free trade a mistake?
(1:02:01) recession chances, how the trump administration gathers information
(1:19:39) future of the democratic party, abundance agenda, doge
(1:51:00) the besties recap the debate and chamath recaps the breakthrough prize ceremony
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says the “bond market had a little moment, but I solved that quickly.”
“The bond market is going good,” he adds.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: US leveraged-loan funds saw a record $6.5 billion net outflow in the week ended Wednesday.
This surpassed the previous record of $3.6 billion seen in the December 2018 sell-off.
Furthermore, investors pulled out a whopping $2.5 billion from the two largest ETFs tied to US leveraged loans this week.
The Invesco Senior Loan ETF, $BKLN, the biggest fund tracking corporate floating-rate debt, recorded a $1.4 billion outflow in 4 trading days, the largest since its 2011 inception.
All while US high-yield bond funds posted $9.6 billion in withdrawals, the biggest in nearly 20 years.
The flight to safety is real.
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The Kobeissi Letter
Lots of headlines and rumors about Trump "asking the Supreme Court to fire Powell."
Here's what really happened:
President Trump asked the Supreme Court to "let him fire top officials at 2 independent agencies," per Bloomberg.
This *could* test whether Trump has the power to fire Fed Chair Powell.
Trump did NOT explicitly ask to fire Powell.
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The Kobeissi Letter
President Trump told us the truth all along:
He's not watching the stock market, he's watching the bond market.
It's all about interest rates right now.
We now know Trump's TOP economic priority:
For weeks, President Trump said there would be NO tariff delay, even as stocks erased $12+ TRILLION.
Then, the bond market BROKE and a 90-day tariff pause was implemented 12 hours later.
Keep watching bonds.
(a thread) https://t.co/M3AltQqjee
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump was just asked about today's stock market drop.
His response: "I have not seen it."
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China and the European Union have begun negotiations to eliminate EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
As the US ramps up tariffs on China, the EU is attempting to reduce tariffs on China in an effort to build trade relations.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now down -6.1% in its largest decline since March 2020.
We are ~50 points away from the first circuit breaker in 5 years.
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Finding Compounders
A great business at the wrong price will result in a bad investment https://t.co/p4IuLzkFdf
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